Draft question for MSStateBaseball and Todd4State

[SouthMsDawg]

Could you guys possibly give us a 50/50 better than or worse on the chances of our baseball signees to make it to campus this fall.

Belmont (Miss.) RHP/SS Luke Alexander - Signed
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS C Austin Riley- Signed
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS RHP Keegan James- Signed
Pelham (Ala.) HS catcher Hunter Stovall- Signed
Jackson Prep INF Jake Mangum -Signed
Desoto Central HS OF Brant Blaylock- Signed
Graceville (Fla.) HS LHP Jared Padgett- Signed
RHP Noah Hughes Jackson Prep- Signed
Sulphur (La.) LHP Kale Breaux- Signed
East Central (Miss.) HS LHP Konner Pilkington- Signed
Aurora (Colo) HS OF Greg Pickett- Signed
Coral Gables (Fla.) HS C Elih Marrero- Signed
Stillwell,Kansas RHP Ryan Cyr- Signed
RHP Parker Ford of Lukfin (Texas) HS- Signed
INF Delvin Zinn of Pontotoc HS- Signed
LHP Trysten Barlow Dyer (Tenn.) County HS- Signed
RHP Gray Fenter West Memphis (Ark.) HS- Signed
LHP Ethan Small of Lexington (Tenn.)- Signed
1B Nathaniel Lowe: St. Johns River State College (Fla.)-signed
RHP Ryan Rigby: East Mississippi CC-signed
OF Tyler Poole of Itawamba CC-signed
LHP Alex London: Tuscaloosa Northridge (Ala.)-signed

[Todd4State]

Could you guys possibly give us a 50/50 better than or worse on the chances of our baseball signees to make it to campus this fall.

The percentage is the chance of them coming to dear old State

Belmont (Miss.) RHP/SS Luke Alexander - Signed 99%
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS C Austin Riley- Signed 40%
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS RHP Keegan James- Signed 95%
Pelham (Ala.) HS catcher Hunter Stovall- Signed 90%
Jackson Prep INF Jake Mangum -Signed 99%
Desoto Central HS OF Brant Blaylock- Signed 99%
Graceville (Fla.) HS LHP Jared Padgett- Signed 50%
RHP Noah Hughes Jackson Prep- Signed 99%
Sulphur (La.) LHP Kale Breaux- Signed 50%
East Central (Miss.) HS LHP Konner Pilkington- Signed 95%
Aurora (Colo) HS OF Greg Pickett- Signed 25%
Coral Gables (Fla.) HS C Elih Marrero- Signed 60%
Stillwell,Kansas RHP Ryan Cyr- Signed 60%
RHP Parker Ford of Lukfin (Texas) HS- Signed 60%
INF Delvin Zinn of Pontotoc HS- Signed 75%
LHP Trysten Barlow Dyer (Tenn.) County HS- Signed 60%
RHP Gray Fenter West Memphis (Ark.) HS- Signed 50%
LHP Ethan Small of Lexington (Tenn.)- Signed 10%
1B Nathaniel Lowe: St. Johns River State College (Fla.)-signed 65%
RHP Ryan Rigby: East Mississippi CC-signed 99%
OF Tyler Poole of Itawamba CC-signed 99%
LHP Alex London: Tuscaloosa Northridge (Ala.)-signed 99%




Those are all educated guesses. The good news is none of our recruits are in MLB.com's top 100 prospect list. MLB.com is BY FAR the most accurate MLB draft web site and the one that I trust the most. They get insider information and they are unbiased. All that means is that they don't project any of our players to go in the first 2-3 rounds or so. The PROBLEM is you have guys like an Ethan Small that will go if they are drafted no matter what. That said, there aren't very many players like that in our class either. So, even if we have some guys drafted, I think we have a fighting chance with most of them.

We'll know more in June and really July 5th because that is the day that the freshmen are supposed to report. The MLB official deadline in July 17th this year.

My two cents is you should probably go to college if you are drafted after the second round if you are a high school player. With the new slot system that they have in place, you're really not risking as much as you used to once you get past round two in most cases.

[MsStateBaseball]

Really, our big player is Riley. Can hit massive HRs and pitch. I just think the pull is too much and he will go to college, why? He can hit and pitch in college, dude, living the big man on campus life for 3 years, lots of his friends go to State.

All I see is Pickett and Small signing for sure. Like Todd said. Pickett won't be 1st rounder but supplemental like I've seen.

Again, I see lots of college guys having great years so that should push HS guys out and downward in draft.

[MsStateBaseball]

And remember, clubs will call these guys up a few days before and ask what it will take, but you got to have a poker face and voice if you serious, they want to sign guys past the first round at minimum cost. If Fenter says I'll take 300,000, they will draft him and he'll sign. But you have to be real honest, if not you need to play along with them.

[jumbo]

I thought we had 6 guys that were top 100? is that in another sites rankings? or is that the 2017 class?

[Homedawg]

Top 100 high school players. That top 100 is the entire draft- high school, college, everyone.

[jumbo]

gotcha, thanks.

[maroonmania]

Those are all educated guesses. The good news is none of our recruits are in MLB.com's top 100 prospect list. MLB.com is BY FAR the most accurate MLB draft web site and the one that I trust the most. They get insider information and they are unbiased. All that means is that they don't project any of our players to go in the first 2-3 rounds or so. The PROBLEM is you have guys like an Ethan Small that will go if they are drafted no matter what. That said, there aren't very many players like that in our class either. So, even if we have some guys drafted, I think we have a fighting chance with most of them.

We'll know more in June and really July 5th because that is the day that the freshmen are supposed to report. The MLB official deadline in July 17th this year.

My two cents is you should probably go to college if you are drafted after the second round if you are a high school player. With the new slot system that they have in place, you're really not risking as much as you used to once you get past round two in most cases.

What kind of supplemental rounds will they have this year? That seems to be a killer as well. Adds other "top round" money picks though it doesn't technically count as a round of the draft. Believe that's where the catcher from LA got picked off last year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Todd,

Pretty good list, but I have changed a few.

The percentage is the chance of them coming to dear old State

Belmont (Miss.) RHP/SS Luke Alexander - Signed 99%
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS C Austin Riley- Signed 25% Not sure this one is in the cards
Desoto Central (Miss.) HS RHP Keegan James- Signed 95%
Pelham (Ala.) HS catcher Hunter Stovall- Signed 99%
Jackson Prep INF Jake Mangum -Signed 99%
Desoto Central HS OF Brant Blaylock- Signed 99%
Graceville (Fla.) HS LHP Jared Padgett- Signed 50%
RHP Noah Hughes Jackson Prep- Signed 99%
Sulphur (La.) LHP Kale Breaux- Signed 99%
East Central (Miss.) HS LHP Konner Pilkington- Signed 99%
Aurora (Colo) HS OF Greg Pickett- Signed 25%
Coral Gables (Fla.) HS C Elih Marrero- Signed 80%
Stillwell,Kansas RHP Ryan Cyr- Signed 60%
RHP Parker Ford of Lukfin (Texas) HS- Signed 99%
INF Delvin Zinn of Pontotoc HS- Signed 99%
LHP Trysten Barlow Dyer (Tenn.) County HS- Signed 60%
RHP Gray Fenter West Memphis (Ark.) HS- Signed 55%
LHP Ethan Small of Lexington (Tenn.)- Signed 60%
1B Nathaniel Lowe: St. Johns River State College (Fla.)-signed 65%
RHP Ryan Rigby: East Mississippi CC-signed 99%
OF Tyler Poole of Itawamba CC-signed 99%
LHP Alex London: Tuscaloosa Northridge (Ala.)-signed 99%

[SouthMsDawg]

Thanks for the info guys.

[ZedFedder]

I've heard Ryan Cyr can really throw gas. What is he consistently throwing? Could he be a factor next year?

[MsStateBaseball]

Cyr was 98 from flat ground in a work out. But he is still not ranked real high, so expect him to be here.

[bulldogcountry1]

I know we go though this every year with attrition and "things will work themselves out", but a lot has to happen with 22 guys signed. That's a football signing class. Even if we lose a few to the draft, there are going to be a lot of fresh faces next year.

[Homedawg]

He was at 92 early and Pitched at 90-91 the remainder of the game last night. 4 hit complete game(8 innings) 2-1 win. 9k and 1 bb

[HancockCountyDog]

Just a reminder - the coahces don't expect a lot of these guys to show up. If you want to know how I know, just do the math. Only 27 players on the roster can receive financial aid. Only 35 can be on the roster.

By my count there are 22 guys on that list. Now some are probably walk ons - but unless there is a mass exodus - we aren't expecting to have half the current team leave.

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

[SouthMsDawg]

Cyr was 98 from flat ground in a work out. But he is still not ranked real high, so expect him to be here.

This means he will hit 92-94 like Hudson another player who was over hyped ans supposedly could throw 96-97

[RBritt]

Zinn is working out for the Marlins May 30th.

[Todd4State]

Just a reminder - the coahces don't expect a lot of these guys to show up. If you want to know how I know, just do the math. Only 27 players on the roster can receive financial aid. Only 35 can be on the roster.

By my count there are 22 guys on that list. Now some are probably walk ons - but unless there is a mass exodus - we aren't expecting to have half the current team leave.

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

To go a little deeper- 8 seniors, +1 junior to the draft (Robson) + 3 that have been Cohened thus far = 12. Let's estimate losing between 3-6 in the recruiting class and that comes out to 16-19, and we know that Poole is a confirmed walk-on FWIW.

So, the "mass exodus" that has been rumored will likely be between 4-7 players if my math is right. That's why I have been saying how many that actually get cut depends on who arrives in the recruiting class. There are also rumors about Preston Brown possibly going to medical school and skipping his senior year- but we'll see what happens with that.

[smootness]

This means he will hit 92-94 like Hudson another player who was over hyped ans supposedly could throw 96-97

Sitting 92-94 as a starter in college puts you at the top end. Most guys who can hit 96+ sit in the lower 90s for most of games.

[MsStateBaseball]

Again this is big reason why Cohen don't announce signees BC some of these are walk ons who will be RS, they don't go against 35. I am thinking the roster will be 38ish with redshirts.

[Todd4State]

What kind of supplemental rounds will they have this year? That seems to be a killer as well. Adds other "top round" money picks though it doesn't technically count as a round of the draft. Believe that's where the catcher from LA got picked off last year.

I'm just now seeing this. Sorry. But this year I think the first round goes up to 42 picks, and yes that is where Vallot was picked last year.