SEC RPI check...

[maroonmania]

since we are over halfway through the regular season:

(from Warren Nolan)
#4 TA&M
#7 Vandy
#11 FL
#15 LSU
#25 KY
#34 Bama
#36 Mizzou
#37 Aub
#39 OM
#53 TN
#56 SC
#86 Ark
#94 GA
#120 MSU

I'm sorry but that is just totally embarrassing for our program. I mean 26 spots below the next closest SEC team and 54 spots below even the 11th rated SEC team.

[BeardoMSU]

Yikes.

[Political Hack]

haha. we're going to hurt A&M's RPI.

[messageboardsuperhero]

You can give a big thank you to whoever set up our non-conference schedule. Many of us had been calling that to kill our RPI for months before the season even started... Hopefully this is the end of Cohen's "we need to reward our fans with as many winnable home games in freezing February weather as possible" bullshit policy.

Of course, when you couple a shitty schedule with shitty play, this is what you get. UM has played pretty shitty this year too- but look where they are because of their schedule.

[maroonmania]

I can tell you right now that about the only hope we have of post-season play at this point is to make the SEC tourney and then win the dang thing.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

since we are over halfway through the regular season:

(from Warren Nolan)
#4 TA&M
#7 Vandy
#11 FL
#15 LSU
#25 KY
#34 Bama
#36 Mizzou
#37 Aub
#39 OM
#53 TN
#56 SC
#86 Ark
#94 GA
#120 MSU

I'm sorry but that is just totally embarrassing for our program. I mean 26 spots below the next closest SEC team and 54 spots below even the 11th rated SEC team.

Quick, look the other way! Everything is fine! We always hit our stride at about this point in the season, when will you low baseball IQ nimrods learn??? And have you seen how good our recruiting classes have been??**

[basedog]

I can tell you right now that about the only hope we have of post-season play at this point is to make the SEC tourney and then win the dang thing.

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Playoffs?! Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?! I'm just hoping we can win a game, another game!
Jim Mora
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[engie]

The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

[Drugdog]

:confused:
The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

:confused:

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

Yea, losing two out of three to the two Alabama SEC schools, Kentucky, directional Kentucky, and Whales ****** and losing to directional Alabama and UAPB have very little to do with our RPI being in the shitter.**

[Quaoarsking]

Again, RPIs 4 weeks into SEC season mean NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. WN is being irresponsible by even publishing them.

Our RPI will go up even if we finish 10-20 in the SEC just because our SOS and opponent's SOS is going to ratchet up just by continuing to play SEC games. In 2010, when we were 6-24 in the SEC, our final RPI was 70. Yes, our nonconference was strong that year than this year, but we will finish much better than 6-24 in the SEC this year too..

If we finish 15-15 or better in the SEC, we'll have a good enough RPI to get in. No worries whatsoever.

[State82]

The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

I think so too. Now, getting there could be a big issue. 10-8 in the next 6 weekends is a tall order for this bunch with the schedule. The sluggish early season SEC play has to stop if we are going to host in the future.

[Leroy Jenkins]

The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

http://rs2img.memecdn.com/Morgan-Freeman-Has-Cotton-Candy-Your-Argument-Is-Invalid_o_108056.jpg

[engie]

That's cute.

Come back in 2 weeks...

[Todd4State]

Our RPI is also a function of us losing to some crappy teams- namely Arkansas Pine Bluff, Western Kentucky, and USM. I don't what the hell is wrong with Arizona's program- but their RPI is sub 100 again. At least we beat them this time, but it's really weird that the big name team that we scheduled has a worse RPI than South Alabama, Western Kentucky, etc.

[Todd4State]

Again, RPIs 4 weeks into SEC season mean NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. WN is being irresponsible by even publishing them.

Our RPI will go up even if we finish 10-20 in the SEC just because our SOS and opponent's SOS is going to ratchet up just by continuing to play SEC games. In 2010, when we were 6-24 in the SEC, our final RPI was 70. Yes, our nonconference was strong that year than this year, but we will finish much better than 6-24 in the SEC this year too..

If we finish 15-15 or better in the SEC, we'll have a good enough RPI to get in. No worries whatsoever.

I honestly can't figure out our RPI. Right now our only sub 100 loss is to Arkansas Pine Bluff- and their RPI is 152. Every other loss we have is to teams that are in the top 100 except for USM, who checks in at 101.

[HSVDawg]

The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

RPI is always more a function of schedule than of success. The problem is that each subsequent game played mathematically means less and less in terms of RPI impact. Eventually you settle into a subset range where your RPI just settles, with minimal variation regardless of wins and losses. We are starting to get in that range now where we are settled into the low 100's. At the current rate, I can't see us getting above the 90's, although I think it will increase some from now with the upcoming series against high RPI teams. Gonna have to get at least into the 50's to earn an at large spot in the regionals. I think if we somehow finish .500, thats where we will wind up, although we could still be on the bubble. Gonna be a tall task either way.

[maroonmania]

Again, RPIs 4 weeks into SEC season mean NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. WN is being irresponsible by even publishing them.

Our RPI will go up even if we finish 10-20 in the SEC just because our SOS and opponent's SOS is going to ratchet up just by continuing to play SEC games. In 2010, when we were 6-24 in the SEC, our final RPI was 70. Yes, our nonconference was strong that year than this year, but we will finish much better than 6-24 in the SEC this year too..

If we finish 15-15 or better in the SEC, we'll have a good enough RPI to get in. No worries whatsoever.

You do realize we have already played 62% of our regular season games? Good to know we can be that far along and our crappy RPI means nothing.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

That's cute.

Come back in 2 weeks...

Deal. We won't be any closer to .500 in the SEC then either.

[HSVDawg]

I honestly can't figure out our RPI. Right now our only sub 100 loss is to Arkansas Pine Bluff- and their RPI is 152. Every other loss we have is to teams that are in the top 100 except for USM, who checks in at 101.

The SOS component isn't just your opponents' winning percentage, it's also your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Thats where Pine Bluff and the other SWAC games really hurt us.

[Quaoarsking]

You do realize we have already played 62% of our regular season games? Good to know we can be that far along and our crappy RPI means nothing.

Yes, it is good to know.

Boyd's World hasn't put up this report for 2014, but here (http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpi2013.html) the RPI list for 2013. The third column from the right is the RPI after the first weekend of April. Note that there are still quite a few large swings in RPI from early April to the end, including:
Arizona State from 51 to 17
Florida Gulf Coast from 134 to 87
Indiana from 182 to 82
Kent State from 122 to 52
Memphis from 115 to 73
New Mexico from 107 to 63
UNC-Wilmington from 98 to 45
Oklahoma from 94 to 29
Penn State from 207 to 97
Samford from 102 to 44
Seton Hall from 175 to 92
St. John's from 112 to 40
Stony Brook from 139 to 58
Tulane from 130 to 64
Utah Valley from 173 to 72
Vanderbilt from 67 to 23
Wichita State from 93 to 46

It works the other way around some too:
BYU from 83 to 155
Duke from 59 to 122
Houston from 86 to 153
Louisiana-Lafayette from 105 to 173
Miami OH from 84 to 191
North Dakota State from 89 to 177
Notre Dame from 45 to 103
Portland from 69 to 124
Santa Clara from 60 to 179
USC from 38 to 100
Tennessee from 65 to 115

This obviously doesn't prove or suggest that we will improve a lot of spots, just that RPI can move a whole lot, even when we've "already played 62% of our regular season games." It's still early and we aren't locked in to a bad RPI, not by a longshot. If we can win games, the RPI will take care of itself.

[War Machine Dawg]

The SEC is going to get at least 10 teams in. We go .500 in conference -- we're going to get in. Our RPI currently is more a function of schedule than a function of success.

Keep workin' it, Engine. Maybe saying it enough times will make it happen, despite all actual evidence to the contrary in the form of our play.
http://i.imgur.com/Dg7kiry.gif

http://i.imgur.com/C5JXVSN.gif

[Quaoarsking]

Keep workin' it, Engine. Maybe saying it enough times will make it happen, despite all actual evidence to the contrary in the form of our play.

I don't remember you in particular being guilty of this, but the most obvious rebuttal to me would be "Keep working it guys. Spend yet another April proclaiming that we won't make a Regional. Maybe you'll finally be right one of these years, despite all actual evidence to the contrary, year after year."

[BulldogBear]

Again, RPIs 4 weeks into SEC season mean NOTHING....If we finish 15-15 or better in the SEC...
I'm not gonna say it won't happen but #meddler says this is unlikely. Maybe if we've more or less really found our olineup

[Quaoarsking]

I'm not gonna say it won't happen but #meddler says this is unlikely. Maybe if we've more or less really found our olineup

I think #Meddler's track record actually says that it is likely.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_06_04_15_9_21_16.png

We've all seen this movie before...

[TUSK]

How many teams make the Baseball Tourney? 32?

[Todd4State]

How many teams make the Baseball Tourney? 32?

You would think a fan of a school with a comparable baseball program would know the answer to this.**

[ScottH]

How many teams make the Baseball Tourney? 32?

64

Approximately 32 Automatic 32 At Large

[TUSK]

You would think a fan of a school with a comparable baseball program would know the answer to this.**

I said it was "similar" and "comparable", not "big-time"....*

[engie]

Keep workin' it, Engine. Maybe saying it enough times will make it happen, despite all actual evidence to the contrary in the form of our play.

You are going to forget ever taking this position when May rolls around aren't you? Who are we kidding -- of course you are. Or it'll be "in spite of our idiot HC and pitching coach". Been 21 whole months since we went deeper than Polk ever did -- and you fools are losing your minds over a bad month in a sport that everyone has a bad month in almost every year. And not only that -- it's a month we generally struggle in. Better now than May or June. The national champions started 8-10 in conference play last year. That very MSU team 2 whole years ago that went to the brink started 3-6 in conference and lost every single series for A FULL MONTH. They took 2 of 3 from an average Fla team the first week in April just before easing down to College Station and really getting rolling.

Take 2 of 3 from South Carolina -- get over 10 hits in every game with the entire lineup sans our best hitter clicking -- score a shit ton of runs -- get 2 good outings on the hill and arguably our best pitcher having an off day -- and bitching still approaches all-time levels. I only wish I had been actively archiving for a meltdown time post when we not only make a regional, but go take a regional in Dallas or Fort Worth and come home and wait to see if we get to host a Super.

The hitting is fixed. We need 1 or 2 more pitchers to step up -- and we're going to be rocking and rolling. I know you'll archive it and be sure to let me know when I'm wrong. Or I'll just say I told you so when we win 5 or 6 of the next 8 and are comfortably inside the tournament bubble.

[RougeDawg]

I don't remember you in particular being guilty of this, but the most obvious rebuttal to me would be "Keep working it guys. Spend yet another April proclaiming that we won't make a Regional. Maybe you'll finally be right one of these years, despite all actual evidence to the contrary, year after year."

Are you saying our bullpen has been this bad this early in the season the last two years? You need an urgent optometrist visit if you think this bullpen is anywhere close to our pen the last two years. That's the difference in this team and the previous two. Hence why we could struggle early on offense and still beat the Oine Bluffs and Upstates. This year we can't hold leads and the small ball hasn't been successful late in games to come back. The last two years our own would lock down a 1-3 run lead after the 7th. This year not so much. I'm sorry you are missing the forest for the trees. The shitty offensive approach only works when you have a lock down pen.

A&M is solid all around, top to bottom of lineup and from starters to pen. If we can win 1 all State fans should consider it a Series Win.

And unless we have some players coming off of injury comparable to Pirtle, Frazier, and Renfroe, a regional is going to take an act of God.

[Coach34]

Win games and we will get in- that's the bottom line. It's going to take 10-8 down the stretch to do it.

[maroonmania]

You are going to forget ever taking this position when May rolls around aren't you? Who are we kidding -- of course you are. Or it'll be "in spite of our idiot HC and pitching coach". Been 21 whole months since we went deeper than Polk ever did -- and you fools are losing your minds over a bad month in a sport that everyone has a bad month in almost every year. And not only that -- it's a month we generally struggle in. Better now than May or June. The national champions started 8-10 in conference play last year. That very MSU team 2 whole years ago that went to the brink started 3-6 in conference and lost every single series for A FULL MONTH. They took 2 of 3 from an average Fla team the first week in April just before easing down to College Station and really getting rolling.

Take 2 of 3 from South Carolina -- get over 10 hits in every game with the entire lineup sans our best hitter clicking -- score a shit ton of runs -- get 2 good outings on the hill and arguably our best pitcher having an off day -- and bitching still approaches all-time levels. I only wish I had been actively archiving for a meltdown time post when we not only make a regional, but go take a regional in Dallas or Fort Worth and come home and wait to see if we get to host a Super.

The hitting is fixed. We need 1 or 2 more pitchers to step up -- and we're going to be rocking and rolling. I know you'll archive it and be sure to let me know when I'm wrong. Or I'll just say I told you so when we win 5 or 6 of the next 8 and are comfortably inside the tournament bubble.

If we had played even a half way decent schedule to this point and had the exact same record I would feel the same. However, we haven't so I don't. I would challenge anyone that has the time or the ability to go back over ANY Cohen year that we got an NCAA post-season bid and find where we were in the 120 RPI range 34 games into the season. If someone shows me that I won't say another word on the subject until the end of the season. I just don't believe we've ever been in this dire a situation before outside of Cohen's first 2 seasons when we knew we weren't post-season worthy anyway.

[msstate7]

Let's say we 2-4 vs aTm and Florida. How much does just playing them help our rpi?

[maroonmania]

Let's say we 2-4 vs aTm and Florida. How much does just playing them help our rpi?

I don't know but to have any real hope of postseason we need to move up roughly 70 spots in RPI and probably finish with a .500 SEC record. If we go 2-4 against those 2 teams with our current record we go 4 games under .500 in the SEC. We also have to play LSU as well as OM and Ark both on the road. Its going to take some amazing baseball from us at this point to finish .500 in the conference. But yea, if we pull that off, our RPI might certainly reach the Top 50. That's a lot of wishful thinking though.

[State82]

I just don't believe we've ever been in this dire a situation before outside of Cohen's first 2 seasons when we knew we weren't post-season worthy anyway.

We haven't. Similar record-wise, but never in rpi.

[War Machine Dawg]

We haven't. Similar record-wise, but never in rpi.

Yep. Teams that lose multiple games to SWAC teams don't get into the NCAAT. We may get hot and get in, but I'm extremely doubtful. This team just doesn't have enough pieces of the puzzle that previous teams did. We're finally figuring out the offense, but I've seen nothing to suggest Butch will figure out the bullpen. He's hell bent on sending Mitchell out there to get pulverized every weekend while Mintz, Sexton, and others have ass firmly planted to bench.

[engie]

I would challenge anyone that has the time or the ability to go back over ANY Cohen year that we got an NCAA post-season bid and find where we were in the 120 RPI range 34 games into the season.

I would challenge anyone to show me any time that we've made it well into April with only 4 road games. Our current RPI is a function of schedule. Part of it being the weak noncon we never left home to play and still managed to lose a couple. And part of it is the fact that we've played 3 of the first 4 SEC series at home. It's going to go up simply by virtue of SOS along with playing on the road(one road victory counts about the same as 2 home wins in RPI).

But don't take my word for it -- just check back in after we beat Memphis and take 2 in College Station...

[engie]

Yep. Teams that lose multiple games to SWAC teams don't get into the NCAAT.
Except they do. And we haven't lost to multiple SWAC teams. But I've understood for awhile now that you can't step back and look logically about the baseball team. Always one of the very first off the cliff.


I've seen nothing to suggest Butch will figure out the bullpen. He's hell bent on sending Mitchell out there to get pulverized every weekend while Mintz, Sexton, and others have ass firmly planted to bench.
Yeah -- 4 years of data be damned. Our bullpen had a bad month -- so he's obviously not going to figure it out and get us to where we need to be in spite of doing it every year he's been here since we were rebuilt**

[messageboardsuperhero]

Just want to go on record and say our SOS is 115 and RPI is 121 right now. Let's revisit that a week from today- then let's revisit it again in two weeks. I'm as pissed as the next guy about our dumbass scheduling/RPI situation up to this point this year, but it will get better soon just by virtue of who we have left to play and where we will play them.

If we win more SEC games than we lose from here on out- we'll for sure be in the tourney. That is the bottom line.

[ScottH]

According to Boyds World RPI Needs as of today...Thanks to and Copyright by Boyds World

MSU....21 games left...current RPI 120

Top 45 14-15 wins
Top 32 16-17 wins
Top 16 19-20 wins
Top 8 can't do it

For comparison
UM...24 games left...current RPI 37

Top 45 11 wins
Top 32 13 wins
Top 16 17 wins
Top 8 21 wins

[confucius say]

So basically we need to go 13-8 the rest of the way to have about a 50 rpi, 34 wins, and be .500 in league. Doable, but doubtful.

[engie]

The RPI needs is still very questionable at this point... It assumes the RPI of #16, 32, 45, etc as if the season was to end today. Many if not all of those will drop between now and the end of the season. Meaning "can't do top 8" may be true this week -- but then possible next week. We will have a much better idea what our chances are when we head to Pearl next week.

[Leroy Jenkins]

That's cute.

Come back in 2 weeks...

https://drawception.com/pub/panels/2012/7-10/FhsMZPFx5z-8.png

[HSVDawg]

You can give a big thank you to whoever set up our non-conference schedule. Many of us had been calling that to kill our RPI for months before the season even started... Hopefully this is the end of Cohen's "we need to reward our fans with as many winnable home games in freezing February weather as possible" bullshit policy.

Of course, when you couple a shitty schedule with shitty play, this is what you get. UM has played pretty shitty this year too- but look where they are because of their schedule.

Except, as much as it pains me to say this, that Ole Miss team beat some of those decent nonconference teams and also took a series or two from some decent teams in SEC play. Thats two things that can't be said about our squad. The thing that pisses me off the absolute most about this season is that this was every bit as much of a transition year for Ole Miss as it was for us, and they are gonna land in the regionals while we're left standing there holding our dicks. There are two reasons for that: the first is that their schedule is much tougher leading to them having a higher RPI, but the second and more important reason is that they are a FAR better team than we ever thought about being despite our similar records. ****ing shit. I just want to swallow cyanide after typing all that out.