Todd4State
04-01-2015, 03:39 AM
I am sure that people are wondering "why do I hear about all of these good recruits and then they go to pot when they get to MSU"? That's a valid question. The first thing I would say is to keep in mind that this current class is usually the one that most people are referring to when discussing the high ceiling of our prospects for the future. We've never had a class with this many Under Armour AA's, Perfect Game All-Americans, and Team USA members in it. Every other class since Cohen has been here- not so much. That's not to say that there aren't highly rated players in the previous classes, but that we have very recently been very JUCO heavy. I'm going to make that very clear in just a second.
Now I am not TOTALLY against JUCO players, but I do not prefer them. There are several reasons for that. They are JUCO for a reason. Some are there because of talent. Some are there because of grades like Van Pope back in the day. And really what you are looking for are guys that are overlooked or blossomed late- like many of the JUCO guys that you hear about like Albert Pujols and Craig Kimbrel. Players like that are the outliers. Another reason I don't care for JUCO players is you are getting two years max out of them. Now I do think JUCO is good for back-up catchers, which is a very important position to me because you need guys like Lovelady for depth, and the other thing is you can sometimes find some good submarine/sidearm type guys who can come in and maybe eat some innings for you. IMO though, I think in general we are better off going after guys out of high school and developing them.
SO- what I am going to do is look at our past five classes and break them down. I picked five because we have players represented in those classes and beyond that it would get redundant and not very relevant.
2014
Ryan Gridley- HS, solid player as a freshman
Cole Gordon- HS (RS)
Paxton Stover- HS, struggled as a freshman
Aaron Dominguez- HS (RS)
Jesse McCord- HS, struggled as a freshman, but has a very high upside
Taylor Stafford- HS, transferred out
Andrew Mahoney- HS, (RS) may not be on the team, unconfirmed. High upside but gamble due to injury.
Daniel Brown- JUCO, struggled after showing initial promise
Matt Spruill- JUCO, struggled after decent start
Luke Reynolds- JUCO, struggling
John Holland- JUCO, initially at FSU, inconsistent
Michael Smith- JUCO, hurt
Logan Elliott- JUCO, struggled
Josh Lovelady- JUCO, struggled at plate, great defensively
Cole Barlow- JUCO (RS) may not be on team, unconfirmed
Trent Waddell- JUCO, struggled
Chase Vallot- UA All-American, left for MLB
Dale Burdick- left for MLB
Totals: 7 High school, 10 JUCO, 2 lost to MLB
Of the JUCO's in this class, only Holland (who has D-I experience) has had the most impact. Other than that, Gridley has been very good and McCord will likely be a SEC starter by the time his career is over. So, the best player in this group has been the high school player despite his youth.
2013
Reid Humphreys- (HS) Drafted by Nationals, leads team in home runs.
Austin Sexton- (HS) SEC weekend starter. Missed senior year due to injury, but will be drafted after his junior year.
Dakota Hudson- (HS) Drafted by Rangers. Has SEC weekend potential, probably will be drafted regardless. Played sparingly so far.
Brent Rooker- (HS) RS, but will be a SEC starter and has been a DH/PH guy fairly regularly
Vance Tatum- (HS) SEC weekend starter, will be drafted after junior year.
Ben Hudspeth- (JUCO) injury plagued
Cody Walker- (JUCO) Platooned as a SEC starter
Glenn Irby- (HS) No longer on team
Jake Vickerson- (JUCO) platoons as a SEC starter
Dylan Ingram- No longer on team
Zac Houston- (HS) SEC relief guy
Avery Geyer- (HS) No longer on team
Jacob Billingsley- (HS) Injured
Gavin Collins- (HS) SEC player, will be drafted
Paul Young (JUCO) Drafted by Indians, injury plagued
Levi Mintz- (HS) Solid SEC relief guy
Lucas Laster (JUCO) SEC starter, probably will be drafted
Seth Heck (JUCO) SEC starter
Joey Swinarski (HS) Injury plagued and has RS
Totals: 13 HS guys 6 JUCO guys and 0 lost to MLB. This was a good class for JUCO's because of Heck, Laster, and Vickerson- but compare them to the talent and upside of Collins, Humphreys, Tatum, Sexton, Hudson, and Mintz. This also means that 15 members of our 35 man roster are JUCO guys. That's way too many.
CLASSES ASSEMBLED BEFORE OMAHA
2012
Daniel Garner- (HS) No longer on team despite setting SEC record for BABIP.
John Marc Shelly- (HS) No longer on team, injuries
Cody Brown- (HS) SEC starter
Brett Pirtle- (JUCO) All-SEC type player
Derrick Armstrong- (JUCO) platoon starter
Wes Stokes- (JUCO) No longer on team
Alex Detz- (JUCO) SEC starter
Zach Randolph- (JUCO) provided catching depth
Jacob Robson- (HS) SEC starter, drafted by Padres
Kyle Hann- (HS) no longer on team, committed to Oklahoma State
William DuPont- (HS) Signed with Blue Jays out of high school
Totals: HS- 5, JUCO 5 Signed with MLB 1. So yet again, a class with as many JUCO's as high school guys, which is a bad proportion. Even though Pirtle was a huge get and the best player in this class, Robson and Cody Brown have been very good SEC players.
2011
Nick Amirati- (JUCO) SEC starter, drafted by Marlins out of HS
Matthew Britton- (HS) SEC platoon starter, inconsistent
Philip Casey- (HS) Left team
Will Cox- (HS) Left team due to injuries
Trevor Fitts- (HS) SEC pitcher
Tyler Fullerton- (HS) Transferred out
Jonathan Holder- (HS) Cult hero.
Jacob Lindgren- (HS) Drafted by Cubs out of HS, drafted by Yankees in second round. All-SEC type player
Bret Marks- (HS) Transferred out and now at Tennessee
Trey Porter- (JUCO) Solid player who had eye issues
Mitch Slauter- (JUCO) SEC starter
Brandon Woodruff- (HS) Under Armour AA, drafted by Rangers out of HS, drafted by Brewers, battled injuries at MSU
Nick Flair- (HS) Drafted by Pirates out of HS, transferred out to JUCO.
Totals: HS- 10, JUCO- 3, 0 lost to MLB. So, the most successful players in this group again are the high school players. And that's with some solid JUCO's. This is more like what a class should look like from a ratio standpoint.
2010
Garrett Pitts- (HS) Transferred out
Adam Frazier- (HS) All-SEC player, now in Pirates system
Taylor Stark- (HS) Drafted by Nationals out of HS, transferred out to Delta State. (I think he got drafted after being there too? Not sure)
Evan Mitchell- (HS) SEC spot starter, drafted by Reds
CT Bradford- (HS) Drafted by Indians out of HS, SEC starter
Demarcus Henderson- (HS) Drafted by Astros out of HS, SEC starter
Wes Rea- (HS) SEC starter
Victor Diaz- (HS) Transferred out
Brett Bozeman- (JUCO) left team
Ross Mitchell- (HS) All-American, solid SEC pitcher
Brayden Jones- (HS) Left team
Daryl Norris- (HS) Drafted out of HS, drafted by Tigers. SEC starter
Tim Statz- (JUCO) Left due to hip injury
Cody Abraham- (HS)- Transferred out
David Bishop- (JUCO) WHO???
Luis Pollorena- (JUCO) Quality SEC player, signed with Rangers after college
Andrew Busby- (JUCO) Transferred out
Hunter Renfroe- (HS) All-American type player, Padres first round pick
Corey Dickerson- (JUCO) Signed with Rockies.
Totals: 13 HS, 5 JUCO, and 1 lost to MLB who was a JUCO. The first thing I want people to notice is that this is one of the main classes that got us to Omaha. Notice the ratio of HS to JUCO. Also of note, only 1 of the JUCO's really panned out for us in this class.
MY POINT IS- we have shifted away from high school prospects and have been going to the JUCO well too much. I think I have demonstrated that the overall upside for high school players is higher in general than JUCO players, although there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. Going with too many JUCO's has hurt our overall talent and we need to go back to bringing in and developing high school prospects more except in exceptional cases.
Now I am not TOTALLY against JUCO players, but I do not prefer them. There are several reasons for that. They are JUCO for a reason. Some are there because of talent. Some are there because of grades like Van Pope back in the day. And really what you are looking for are guys that are overlooked or blossomed late- like many of the JUCO guys that you hear about like Albert Pujols and Craig Kimbrel. Players like that are the outliers. Another reason I don't care for JUCO players is you are getting two years max out of them. Now I do think JUCO is good for back-up catchers, which is a very important position to me because you need guys like Lovelady for depth, and the other thing is you can sometimes find some good submarine/sidearm type guys who can come in and maybe eat some innings for you. IMO though, I think in general we are better off going after guys out of high school and developing them.
SO- what I am going to do is look at our past five classes and break them down. I picked five because we have players represented in those classes and beyond that it would get redundant and not very relevant.
2014
Ryan Gridley- HS, solid player as a freshman
Cole Gordon- HS (RS)
Paxton Stover- HS, struggled as a freshman
Aaron Dominguez- HS (RS)
Jesse McCord- HS, struggled as a freshman, but has a very high upside
Taylor Stafford- HS, transferred out
Andrew Mahoney- HS, (RS) may not be on the team, unconfirmed. High upside but gamble due to injury.
Daniel Brown- JUCO, struggled after showing initial promise
Matt Spruill- JUCO, struggled after decent start
Luke Reynolds- JUCO, struggling
John Holland- JUCO, initially at FSU, inconsistent
Michael Smith- JUCO, hurt
Logan Elliott- JUCO, struggled
Josh Lovelady- JUCO, struggled at plate, great defensively
Cole Barlow- JUCO (RS) may not be on team, unconfirmed
Trent Waddell- JUCO, struggled
Chase Vallot- UA All-American, left for MLB
Dale Burdick- left for MLB
Totals: 7 High school, 10 JUCO, 2 lost to MLB
Of the JUCO's in this class, only Holland (who has D-I experience) has had the most impact. Other than that, Gridley has been very good and McCord will likely be a SEC starter by the time his career is over. So, the best player in this group has been the high school player despite his youth.
2013
Reid Humphreys- (HS) Drafted by Nationals, leads team in home runs.
Austin Sexton- (HS) SEC weekend starter. Missed senior year due to injury, but will be drafted after his junior year.
Dakota Hudson- (HS) Drafted by Rangers. Has SEC weekend potential, probably will be drafted regardless. Played sparingly so far.
Brent Rooker- (HS) RS, but will be a SEC starter and has been a DH/PH guy fairly regularly
Vance Tatum- (HS) SEC weekend starter, will be drafted after junior year.
Ben Hudspeth- (JUCO) injury plagued
Cody Walker- (JUCO) Platooned as a SEC starter
Glenn Irby- (HS) No longer on team
Jake Vickerson- (JUCO) platoons as a SEC starter
Dylan Ingram- No longer on team
Zac Houston- (HS) SEC relief guy
Avery Geyer- (HS) No longer on team
Jacob Billingsley- (HS) Injured
Gavin Collins- (HS) SEC player, will be drafted
Paul Young (JUCO) Drafted by Indians, injury plagued
Levi Mintz- (HS) Solid SEC relief guy
Lucas Laster (JUCO) SEC starter, probably will be drafted
Seth Heck (JUCO) SEC starter
Joey Swinarski (HS) Injury plagued and has RS
Totals: 13 HS guys 6 JUCO guys and 0 lost to MLB. This was a good class for JUCO's because of Heck, Laster, and Vickerson- but compare them to the talent and upside of Collins, Humphreys, Tatum, Sexton, Hudson, and Mintz. This also means that 15 members of our 35 man roster are JUCO guys. That's way too many.
CLASSES ASSEMBLED BEFORE OMAHA
2012
Daniel Garner- (HS) No longer on team despite setting SEC record for BABIP.
John Marc Shelly- (HS) No longer on team, injuries
Cody Brown- (HS) SEC starter
Brett Pirtle- (JUCO) All-SEC type player
Derrick Armstrong- (JUCO) platoon starter
Wes Stokes- (JUCO) No longer on team
Alex Detz- (JUCO) SEC starter
Zach Randolph- (JUCO) provided catching depth
Jacob Robson- (HS) SEC starter, drafted by Padres
Kyle Hann- (HS) no longer on team, committed to Oklahoma State
William DuPont- (HS) Signed with Blue Jays out of high school
Totals: HS- 5, JUCO 5 Signed with MLB 1. So yet again, a class with as many JUCO's as high school guys, which is a bad proportion. Even though Pirtle was a huge get and the best player in this class, Robson and Cody Brown have been very good SEC players.
2011
Nick Amirati- (JUCO) SEC starter, drafted by Marlins out of HS
Matthew Britton- (HS) SEC platoon starter, inconsistent
Philip Casey- (HS) Left team
Will Cox- (HS) Left team due to injuries
Trevor Fitts- (HS) SEC pitcher
Tyler Fullerton- (HS) Transferred out
Jonathan Holder- (HS) Cult hero.
Jacob Lindgren- (HS) Drafted by Cubs out of HS, drafted by Yankees in second round. All-SEC type player
Bret Marks- (HS) Transferred out and now at Tennessee
Trey Porter- (JUCO) Solid player who had eye issues
Mitch Slauter- (JUCO) SEC starter
Brandon Woodruff- (HS) Under Armour AA, drafted by Rangers out of HS, drafted by Brewers, battled injuries at MSU
Nick Flair- (HS) Drafted by Pirates out of HS, transferred out to JUCO.
Totals: HS- 10, JUCO- 3, 0 lost to MLB. So, the most successful players in this group again are the high school players. And that's with some solid JUCO's. This is more like what a class should look like from a ratio standpoint.
2010
Garrett Pitts- (HS) Transferred out
Adam Frazier- (HS) All-SEC player, now in Pirates system
Taylor Stark- (HS) Drafted by Nationals out of HS, transferred out to Delta State. (I think he got drafted after being there too? Not sure)
Evan Mitchell- (HS) SEC spot starter, drafted by Reds
CT Bradford- (HS) Drafted by Indians out of HS, SEC starter
Demarcus Henderson- (HS) Drafted by Astros out of HS, SEC starter
Wes Rea- (HS) SEC starter
Victor Diaz- (HS) Transferred out
Brett Bozeman- (JUCO) left team
Ross Mitchell- (HS) All-American, solid SEC pitcher
Brayden Jones- (HS) Left team
Daryl Norris- (HS) Drafted out of HS, drafted by Tigers. SEC starter
Tim Statz- (JUCO) Left due to hip injury
Cody Abraham- (HS)- Transferred out
David Bishop- (JUCO) WHO???
Luis Pollorena- (JUCO) Quality SEC player, signed with Rangers after college
Andrew Busby- (JUCO) Transferred out
Hunter Renfroe- (HS) All-American type player, Padres first round pick
Corey Dickerson- (JUCO) Signed with Rockies.
Totals: 13 HS, 5 JUCO, and 1 lost to MLB who was a JUCO. The first thing I want people to notice is that this is one of the main classes that got us to Omaha. Notice the ratio of HS to JUCO. Also of note, only 1 of the JUCO's really panned out for us in this class.
MY POINT IS- we have shifted away from high school prospects and have been going to the JUCO well too much. I think I have demonstrated that the overall upside for high school players is higher in general than JUCO players, although there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. Going with too many JUCO's has hurt our overall talent and we need to go back to bringing in and developing high school prospects more except in exceptional cases.