Why do Cohen's teams start slow and then improve every year?

[Quaoarsking]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_29_03_15_4_41_10.png
This chart shows our SEC winning percentage at the end of each conference weekend in all of Cohen's seasons. While the white bar at the right of each grouping is the only one that really matters, I find it interesting to track the progress of each season.

While in Cohen's first two years, we sucked all year without getting any better, Years 3-5 all started with mediocrity in the first half and then getting better in the second half. Even in 2014, when we won the first 3 series, we fell back below .500 by the halfway point and then came on strong at the end of the conference season.

Any theories on why we always get better in the second half of the year? Cohen's never had a winning SEC record after 5 SEC weekends, but 3 of his 6 years (or 75% of the time, if you throw out the horrible first 2 years), we've ended up with a winning record at the end of it. We average .100 higher in win percentage after Week 10 compared to Week 5 these last four years. It's happened too regularly to be explained by strength of schedule or coincidence. You can see a similar pattern during his time at Kentucky, getting better as the year goes on, though not as dramatic as it's been at MSU. Cohen was above .500 in one of his five years at Kentucky, but even then it was 8-7 in a year that he finished 20-10 and won the SEC:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_29_03_15_4_47_37.png

For some reason, Cohen is a better second-half-of-the-season coach than first half. Maybe it's weather? Maybe he's hard-headed but finally gets it after 5 SEC weeks? Maybe it takes players that long to adjust to his coaching? I don't know, but it's the main reason why I'm not as gloom-and-doom as everyone else here right now. So we lost our first 3 series. I don't like it, but that's just Cohenball. We did the same thing in 2012 and 2013 and ended up fine. Better than fine. Winning records in the SEC both times, a championship in Hoover, and #2 in the nation. Both years were huge successes after the boards melted down all March and called for his termination.

Every year, the boards fully melt down in March and early April, and every year Cohen makes everyone look like idiots. Why is this year different? I'm going to give Cohen the benefit of the doubt until he shows that I shouldn't. The same people year after year insisted we wouldn't make a Regional in 2011 (all the way up to the final week), 2012 (insisting that we were a lock for 12th in the SEC), and 2013 (the year we finished #2 in the country). It wasn't as bad in 2014, but the usual suspects did predict no Regional around mid-year when we dipped below .500. Why are the same boys who cried wolf right this time? Even if they are, weren't they bound to be right eventually when they claimed "No Regional this year!" year after year?

I'm going to go ahead and formally predict that we play in a Regional this year. We may be a bubble 3 seed that goes 2-and-out, but we'll get there. If I'm wrong, feel free to bump and ridicule me. I'll still have a much better baseball track record than the people who predict us not to make it every year.

[Todd4State]

You know, there is probably a different answer for every year. Baseball is a game of streaks and slumps and all of those clich?s.

I don't know that it's bad in that I would rather finish strong than start strong and flame out. Obviously I would prefer to dominate from the start to finish like LSU did under Bertman.

I do think Cohen and Butch are willing to adjust some things and eventually they usually find what works.

If I were to answer your question as far as why this year might be different- I would say it's because the talent level isn't as good particularly in the bullpen. But you are correct about his track record and we'll see if that plays out again.

[ScottH]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_29_03_15_4_41_10.png

I'm going to go ahead and formally predict that we play in a Regional this year. We may be a bubble 3 seed that goes 2-and-out, but we'll get there. If I'm wrong, feel free to bump and ridicule me. I'll still have a much better baseball track record than the people who predict us not to make it every year.

Impressive work.

I'll take a 3 seed today and go to the house.

It would be interesting to see the opponent strength somehow charted against the record.

I know this year we were front loaded easy and we are headed to a row of top 10ish teams.

[I seen it dawg]

Don't know but although there were some bright spots in Fitts, Holland, another good Tatum outing, heck, it wasn't a great improvement today. Terrible lineup and an absolutely dipshit pinch hitting move for Brown in the 6th, and Tatum should not have come out even though it worked. Auburn sucks.

[Todd4State]

Impressive work.

I'll take a 3 seed today and go to the house.

It would be interesting to see the opponent strength somehow charted against the record.

I know this year we were front loaded easy and we are headed to a row of top 10ish teams.

Our RPI could very well keep us out even with a strong a finish. Our best route to a regional might be to win the Tournament. Odds aren't in our favor there either.

[I seen it dawg]

Great stuff and maybe I should back off some of my earlier comments of he can carry his ass. Although why does he have to be so shitty for half the year? I don't get it. He does things that aren't just trying to figure out his team but tinkering just to be cute. It's dumb and unnecessary. But I'll back off the ledge for a couple more weeks. We will know with our stretch coming up.

[Smitty]

It takes him longer to see what we all do. That you shouldn't bench Hump and Heck, while starting Spruill and Waddell and expect to win.

[bulldogcountry1]

I'm convinced his constant lineup changing is partially an attempt to toughen up the players by agitating them and keeping them uncomfortable. Whoever is still standing in the end gets to play. We always seem to end up with pretty hard-nosed teams, but what's the cost?

Whatever his true reason goes against the fact that baseball is about being comfortable. There's not one single position player who can walk into the locker room with full confidence that they know they will be playing or where they will be batting. Very few people, if any, can consistently perform at their best under those conditions.

[CadaverDawg]

Nice info, Quaors. I am typically one of the Cohen defenders this time of year, because if you follow baseball closely you can tell if a team has the potential but luck just hasn't been on their side. I saw that in previous years, but not this year. I may end up wrong, but we don't seem to have one single guy in the bullpen that is reliable this season. Our starters can't throw 125 every start. So we're about to have to throw more key innings at our bum of a bullpen, and that makes me think our season won't improve like it has in past seasons.

IMO, our only shot is to get Laster in the weekend bullpen, and hope like hell that Hudson, Young, McCord(if healthy), and D Brown can get over their confidence issues. It's up to the bullpen. Our hitting will be ok long term, but it will never be good enough to out score good teams 10-9 or 12-11...,we HAVE to be able to hold a 2-3 run lead after 6 innings or this season will break that trend shown in your graph.

Let's hope Cohen pulls it off again, but either way it's a bad trend to make a habit of, bc we'll rarely ever host under Cohen with a trend like that every year. It's time for him to look in the mirror and make some changes.

Did Cohen's Kentucky teams have a similar trend? Just curious if this is a Trend that has followed his career.

[engie]

Whatever his true reason goes against the fact that baseball is about being comfortable. There's not one single position player who can walk into the locker room with full confidence that they know they will be playing or where they will be batting. Very few people, if any, can consistently perform at their best under those conditions.

This is simply not true. The "majority" might not be able to perform under those conditions -- but championship teams aren't built on "majorities". There are plenty of guys that play the game better and have the ability to hyperfocus when they are absolutely livid with their coach, feel like their back is constantly against the wall, and they constantly have to prove themselves in hostile environments, etc... I know this -- because I was one of those players that wasn't nearly as good when stuck behind the dish and automatically in the 4 hole every time out, but got better when challenged and doubted, when opposing fans got the loudest, etc. I'll always wish Cohen had been around 5 years earlier. I would have LOVED to have been at MSU under the current adversity and scrutiny as a player. The amount of negative crap I could go read here and SPS would have made me perform better as a player personally...

The kids Lane recruited early were these types of hard-nosed, back-against-a-wall kids -- and carried a chip on their shoulder with the PG and offer disrespect, etc. Most of the kids Mingione has recruited were always considered "elite" by the Atlanta "experts" and many of them don't seem to have the same edge that has been a Cohen staple. Seems more and more like we've been winning the press conference in recruiting in baseball vs getting the in-your-face glue guys we actually need to succeed when the bright lights come on...

[Dawgology]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_29_03_15_4_41_10.png
This chart shows our SEC winning percentage at the end of each conference weekend in all of Cohen's seasons. While the white bar at the right of each grouping is the only one that really matters, I find it interesting to track the progress of each season.

While in Cohen's first two years, we sucked all year without getting any better, Years 3-5 all started with mediocrity in the first half and then getting better in the second half. Even in 2014, when we won the first 3 series, we fell back below .500 by the halfway point and then came on strong at the end of the conference season.

Any theories on why we always get better in the second half of the year? Cohen's never had a winning SEC record after 5 SEC weekends, but 3 of his 6 years (or 75% of the time, if you throw out the horrible first 2 years), we've ended up with a winning record at the end of it. We average .100 higher in win percentage after Week 10 compared to Week 5 these last four years. It's happened too regularly to be explained by strength of schedule or coincidence. You can see a similar pattern during his time at Kentucky, getting better as the year goes on, though not as dramatic as it's been at MSU. Cohen was above .500 in one of his five years at Kentucky, but even then it was 8-7 in a year that he finished 20-10 and won the SEC:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_29_03_15_4_47_37.png

For some reason, Cohen is a better second-half-of-the-season coach than first half. Maybe it's weather? Maybe he's hard-headed but finally gets it after 5 SEC weeks? Maybe it takes players that long to adjust to his coaching? I don't know, but it's the main reason why I'm not as gloom-and-doom as everyone else here right now. So we lost our first 3 series. I don't like it, but that's just Cohenball. We did the same thing in 2012 and 2013 and ended up fine. Better than fine. Winning records in the SEC both times, a championship in Hoover, and #2 in the nation. Both years were huge successes after the boards melted down all March and called for his termination.

Every year, the boards fully melt down in March and early April, and every year Cohen makes everyone look like idiots. Why is this year different? I'm going to give Cohen the benefit of the doubt until he shows that I shouldn't. The same people year after year insisted we wouldn't make a Regional in 2011 (all the way up to the final week), 2012 (insisting that we were a lock for 12th in the SEC), and 2013 (the year we finished #2 in the country). It wasn't as bad in 2014, but the usual suspects did predict no Regional around mid-year when we dipped below .500. Why are the same boys who cried wolf right this time? Even if they are, weren't they bound to be right eventually when they claimed "No Regional this year!" year after year?

I'm going to go ahead and formally predict that we play in a Regional this year. We may be a bubble 3 seed that goes 2-and-out, but we'll get there. If I'm wrong, feel free to bump and ridicule me. I'll still have a much better baseball track record than the people who predict us not to make it every year.

He screws around with the lineup and positions early to mid season. Once he finds what he likes it locks in and we roll. It happens every year. We scratch our heads wondering why he is doing what he is doing and by late mid to the end of the season the team start clicking. It's just what he does. Problem is...that can bite you in the ass eventually. Might be this year.

[bulldogcountry1]

This is simply not true. The "majority" might not be able to perform under those conditions

You say it's not true, then you immediately agree with me?

[engie]

You say it's not true, then you immediately agree with me?

You don't read and comprehend very well.