2014 SEC Games Bunt Numbers!!!

[Smitty]

This is shocking and infuriating at the same damn time. It's bad.. Real bad... Makes what we are doing this year EVEN WORSE THAN WE IMAGINED!!!! Last year Cohen got away from bunting the man over from first, and with good reason when we see the results. BUT, he LOVED bunting the man over from 2nd.


Man on 1st, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 49% of the time here.
We bunt 6 times.. We score just 1 time.... Zero instances of scoring multiple runs...
Boyd says to score 49%, we score just 17% bunting.

We DONT BUNT 86 times.. We score 40 times... 20 instances of scoring multiple runs..
Boyd says to score 49%, we score 47% not bunting. HALF of those times we have a big inning (2+ runs).


Man on 2nd, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 70% of the time here.
We bunt 11 times.. We score just 4 times.. Zero instances of scoring multiple runs...
Boyd says to score 70%, we score just 36% bunting.

We DONT BUNT 5 times.. We score 4 times.. 2 instances of scoring multiple runs..
Boyd says to score 70%, we score 80% not bunting. HALF of those times we have a big inning (2+ runs).


So we bunt one man over 17 times last year, scoring just 5 times, having ZERO big innings (2+ runs). This has been our bread and butter this year!! Cohen! WTF! DO NOT BUNT ONE MAN OVER ANYMORE!


1st and 2nd, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 71% of the time here.
We bunt 10 times.. We score 6 times.. 4 instances of multiple runs.
Boyd says to score 71%, we score 60%.. 4/6 big innings with 2 already on base.

We DONT BUNT 10 times.. We score 8 times.. 5 instances of multiple runs.
Boyd says to score 71% of the time, we score 80% of the time.. 5/8 big innings.

.
.
So in conclusion, it is what we have come to expect. The one man bunting over is a stupid, run-draining play. We base a TON of our offense on this play, much moreso this year than last. Offense is supposed to be UP this year, yet we are doing the opposite.

We already have FOUR move one man over bunts in SEC play in 3 games.. We only had 17 in 30 games last year.

[Irondawg]

it's late so maybe my brain isn't working but On the 1st scenario where is the 86 times coming from?

[I seen it dawg]

Hope you bloodied your keyboard with your head.

[starkvegasdawg]

Can we get Fitts to put that in a power point presentation?

[SapperDawg]

Man on 1st, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 49% of the time here.
We bunt 6 times.. We score just 1 time.... Zero instances of scoring multiple runs...
Boyd says to score 49%, we score just 17% bunting.

We DONT BUNT 86 times.. We score 40 times... 20 instances of scoring multiple runs..
Boyd says to score 49%, we score 47% not bunting. HALF of those times we have a big inning (2+ runs).



Am I reading this correctly?

Condition 1: with a man on first and no outs in SEC play we had 92 total ABs. Out of the 92 ABs, we did not bunt 86 times or 93% of all ABs in this condition.

[War Machine Dawg]

Am I reading this correctly: with a man on first and no outs in SEC play we had 92 total ABs. Out of the 92 ABs, we did not bunt 86 times or 93% of all ABs in this condition?

Looks like you've got it right. And Smitty said clearly that Cohen got away from bunting one man over from first last season. He's reverted back this season.

[War Machine Dawg]

This is shocking and infuriating at the same damn time. It's bad.. Real bad... Makes what we are doing this year EVEN WORSE THAN WE IMAGINED!!!! Last year Cohen got away from bunting the man over from first, and with good reason when we see the results. BUT, he LOVED bunting the man over from 2nd.


Man on 1st, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 49% of the time here.
We bunt 6 times.. We score just 1 time.... Zero instances of scoring multiple runs...
Boyd says to score 49%, we score just 17% bunting.

We DONT BUNT 86 times.. We score 40 times... 20 instances of scoring multiple runs..
Boyd says to score 49%, we score 47% not bunting. HALF of those times we have a big inning (2+ runs).


Man on 2nd, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 70% of the time here.
We bunt 11 times.. We score just 4 times.. Zero instances of scoring multiple runs...
Boyd says to score 70%, we score just 36% bunting.

We DONT BUNT 5 times.. We score 4 times.. 2 instances of scoring multiple runs..
Boyd says to score 70%, we score 80% not bunting. HALF of those times we have a big inning (2+ runs).


So we bunt one man over 17 times last year, scoring just 5 times, having ZERO big innings (2+ runs). This has been our bread and butter this year!! Cohen! WTF! DO NOT BUNT ONE MAN OVER ANYMORE!


1st and 2nd, 0 outs
Boyd says you score 71% of the time here.
We bunt 10 times.. We score 6 times.. 4 instances of multiple runs.
Boyd says to score 71%, we score 60%.. 4/6 big innings with 2 already on base.

We DONT BUNT 10 times.. We score 8 times.. 5 instances of multiple runs.
Boyd says to score 71% of the time, we score 80% of the time.. 5/8 big innings.

.
.
So in conclusion, it is what we have come to expect. The one man bunting over is a stupid, run-draining play. We base a TON of our offense on this play, much moreso this year than last. Offense is supposed to be UP this year, yet we are doing the opposite.

We already have FOUR move one man over bunts in SEC play in 3 games.. We only had 17 in 30 games last year.

http://i.imgur.com/oHfd32H.gif

[Ralph]

Ok, I'm a believer now.

Personally, I think cohens our man, just wish he'd change plate approach.

[HSVDawg]

I agree with the general premise of the post. Bunting one runner over is not good practice except in a very select few situations (for instance, leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game).

[Drugdog]

Will anybody get this info to The Coaches?

[LC Dawg]

I'm shocked we had that many 1st and 2nd no out situations. Did any of those not involve a walk or an error?

[smootness]

The frustrating thing is, this should all be pretty obvious based on simple observation.

[RougeDawg]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

The 0 out bunting with a man on 1st has it's place in the game and can be defended in certain situations, but bunting with 0 outs and a man on 2nd is never acceptable unless you are drag bunting for a hit. Never should sacfirice in that situation, ever. The chances from scoring from 2nd with 0 outs are astronomically high, so why would you give up an out to roughly keep your odds the same of scoring 1 run?

[RougeDawg]

I agree with the general premise of the post. Bunting one runner over is not good practice except in a very select few situations (for instance, leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game).

No, you never bunt with man on 2nd and 0 outs. Best play is for hitter to choke up, spread out feet, and use a safe hit and run type approach. Hit the ball on the ground to the right side of the infield. You have a chance of getting a hit and still move the runner over. If you happen to pop the ball up to the right side of the field the runner has a chance to tag and move up. You absolutely cannot give up an out with a runner on 2nd and no outs. Giving up that out, even while moving the runner over, greatly diminishes the chances of scoring a run.

[Really Clark?]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

The 0 out bunting with a man on 1st has it's place in the game and can be defended in certain situations, but bunting with 0 outs and a man on 2nd is never acceptable unless you are drag bunting for a hit. Never should sacfirice in that situation, ever. The chances from scoring from 2nd with 0 outs are astronomically high, so why would you give up an out to roughly keep your odds the same of scoring 1 run?

I agree with you somewhat but there are situations where you definitely should consider bunting the guy from 2nd to 3rd even if you sacrifice the out. Not to mention the fact that statistically the attempt of bunting for a hit in that situation, like you said, is a good play because runners at 1st and 3rd with no outs is the exact same run expectancy I believe as runner on 2 with no outs. But if you are down one or tied late I want to get that guy over to third because I also bring in the ability to score on the WP or error from the bunt play itself. A good bunt and put pressure on the fielder to make a good throw as well. You are talking about sacrificing .17 runs by having the runner at 3rd with 1 out vs runner at 2nd with 0 outs. Late in the game it's a good trade off. Especially with the added pressure on the defense and the pitcher.

[War Machine Dawg]

I agree with the general premise of the post. Bunting one runner over is not good practice except in a very select few situations (for instance, leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game).

^^^This guy gets it.^^^

[messageboardsuperhero]

I'm surprised with how few times we bunted men from 1st to second last year.

But yes, I think the fact that we're sac bunting far too much right now should be very clear at this point.

[Really Clark?]

No, you never bunt with man on 2nd and 0 outs. Best play is for hitter to choke up, spread out feet, and use a safe hit and run type approach. Hit the ball on the ground to the right side of the infield. You have a chance of getting a hit and still move the runner over. If you happen to pop the ball up to the right side of the field the runner has a chance to tag and move up. You absolutely cannot give up an out with a runner on 2nd and no outs. Giving up that out, even while moving the runner over, greatly diminishes the chances of scoring a run.

Not just picking on you as I already said I agree with your above approach mostly, but unless I'm misremembering I think you have a slightly higher percentage of scoring one run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on 2 and 0 outs. Your total run expectancy is a little less but the ability to score 1 run goes up. Tied game bottom of 9th would be the perfect time to consider bunting a man to 3rd. Not saying the other approach is bad or invalid but you have choices.

[shoeless joe]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

The 0 out bunting with a man on 1st has it's place in the game and can be defended in certain situations, but bunting with 0 outs and a man on 2nd is never acceptable unless you are drag bunting for a hit. Never should sacfirice in that situation, ever. The chances from scoring from 2nd with 0 outs are astronomically high, so why would you give up an out to roughly keep your odds the same of scoring 1 run?

We all know from your posts that you're smarter than Cohen and a much better coach...hell if somebody doubts it they can just ask you...but your second paragraph makes zero sense. If it is ok, on occasion, to play for a runner on 2nd with 1 out...how is it NEVER ok to play for a runner at 3rd with 1 out?

Fact: there are more ways,therefore it's easier, to score from third versus second regardless of the number of outs.

Just so it's clear, I am not against buntin, but I do think we use it too much and in situations where there is a better play

[maroonmania]

And the deal is this is something that could easily improve our overall run production if the coaches would just chill out on all the sacrifice bunting in almost every situation with a baserunner. For those that want to harp on the bullpen and nothing but the bullpen for every aspect of all of our woes (i.e. Todd4State and a few others), there is nothing so concrete like this that can be done to help that problem. All you can dor there is keep changing out who you use in the pen until you find someone who can throw strikes while not getting slapped all over the yard.

[shoeless joe]

And the deal is this is something that could easily improve our overall run production if the coaches would just chill out on all the sacrifice bunting in almost every situation with a baserunner. For those that want to harp on the bullpen and nothing but the bullpen for every aspect of all of our woes (i.e. Todd4State and a few others), there is nothing so concrete like this that can be done to help that problem. All you can dor there is keep changing out who you use in the pen until you find someone who can throw strikes while not getting slapped all over the yard.

Hitting away instead of bunting will not help the pen get one single out.

I am going to assume you are saying we should try to win 11-10 instead of losing 10-5 after having a 5-2 lead after 7. Problem is...not bunting any will not increase run production by 6 runs a game. In fact, no where even close.

However, 4-6 runs a game would be plenty with our starters If our pen didn't suck.

[Smitty]

The only people making this an either/or situation are Todd and Joe.

[maroonmania]

Hitting away instead of bunting will not help the pen get one single out.

I am going to assume you are saying we should try to win 11-10 instead of losing 10-5 after having a 5-2 lead after 7. Problem is...not bunting any will not increase run production by 6 runs a game. In fact, no where even close.

However, 4-6 runs a game would be plenty with our starters If our pen didn't suck.

Man, the agenda from the other side on this apparently has NO LOGIC. What are you talking about with swinging away not helping the pen??? What kind of lame question is that? We are talking about something concrete that can help us score some more runs and take some of the pressure off of a currently very bad bullpen. ONE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OTHER!! I REPEAT, ONE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OTHER!! There is nothing so concrete that can be done to PREVENT RUNS other than tell the guys in our pen we would like for them to throw strikes and get more guys out, DUH!

[I seen it dawg]

Will anybody get this info to The Coaches?

Yeah they are out of toilet paper.

[I seen it dawg]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

The 0 out bunting with a man on 1st has it's place in the game and can be defended in certain situations, but bunting with 0 outs and a man on 2nd is never acceptable unless you are drag bunting for a hit. Never should sacfirice in that situation, ever. The chances from scoring from 2nd with 0 outs are astronomically high, so why would you give up an out to roughly keep your odds the same of scoring 1 run?

You should rename yourself douchedawg. I hate all the bunting. I'm not happy with what we are doing. i don't give a shit if people bash Cohen. Those of you that put NEVER and ALWAYS for game strategy situations in baseball are ****ing stupid. That's the problem. Not that it's Cohen. Our staff including him are doing head scratching things right now.

[I seen it dawg]

Not just picking on you as I already said I agree with your above approach mostly, but unless I'm misremembering I think you have a slightly higher percentage of scoring one run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on 2 and 0 outs. Your total run expectancy is a little less but the ability to score 1 run goes up. Tied game bottom of 9th would be the perfect time to consider bunting a man to 3rd. Not saying the other approach is bad or invalid but you have choices.


He knows way more than everybody else. You're not picking on him. He will tell you how you are an idiot.

[RougeDawg]

Not just picking on you as I already said I agree with your above approach mostly, but unless I'm misremembering I think you have a slightly higher percentage of scoring one run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on 2 and 0 outs. Your total run expectancy is a little less but the ability to score 1 run goes up. Tied game bottom of 9th would be the perfect time to consider bunting a man to 3rd. Not saying the other approach is bad or invalid but you have choices.

Correct. Overall scoring percentages and amounts are greatly higher with no outs versus 1 out. So many ways to productively move a runner from 2nd to third, without simply bailing out the defense by giving an out. The amount of outs also influence how the defense plays it. Outfielders/Infielders will play in more of a position to prevent a follow up double and the second man off of second base on a hit. They will play slightly different, more straight up, in hopes of bailing runner at plate. It's really complicated, but we shouldn't be giving up outs unless absolutely necessary to get the tying run into scoring position in the latter 3 innings. A runner on 2nd is already 1 hit away from scoring, so why cut down your opportunities to get that hit by 1/3 the chance?

[War Machine Dawg]

You should rename yourself douchedawg. I hate all the bunting. I'm not happy with what we are doing. i don't give a shit if people bash Cohen. Those of you that put NEVER and ALWAYS for game strategy situations in baseball are ****ing stupid. That's the problem. Not that it's Cohen. Our staff including him are doing head scratching things right now.

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

[I seen it dawg]

Correct. Overall scoring percentages and amounts are greatly higher with no outs versus 1 out. So many ways to productively move a runner from 2nd to third, without simply bailing out the defense by giving an out. The amount of outs also influence how the defense plays it. Outfielders/Infielders will play in more of a position to prevent a follow up double and the second man off of second base on a hit. They will play slightly different, more straight up, in hopes of bailing runner at plate. It's really complicated, but we shouldn't be giving up outs unless absolutely necessary to get the tying run into scoring position in the latter 3 innings. A runner on 2nd is already 1 hit away from scoring, so why cut down your opportunities to get that hit by 1/3 the chance?

No shit? Maybe that's why it depends on the situation. Even sometimes going against the percentages either way because of all the different variables involved in a particular situation and what it could lead to.

[I seen it dawg]

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.


I wouldn't say come around because I've always disliked the frequency we small ball. I just am not a fan. What I get spun up about is the Smittys of the world being so black and white and never being able to understand the time and place for different strategies in situations. It's ok if that's the case just don't act like you are Casey Stengal about it all. There are times and places for everything during a game.

[RougeDawg]

Hilarious! I've only restated this year what I've been saying the last 3-4 years. The only difference in this year vs the last few, is you and others no longer have a leg to stand on, in your attempts to call me an idiot for what I am stating about our team that is causing the poor hitting and bunting. Why did everyone go to extreme extents the past few years to discredit my posts and call me an idiot for what I was bringing to the table about hitting? I was showing how Cohen was actually holding back the offense and our players mechanics were not that great. And this was the reason for the offensive woes. All the Cohen defenders came out of the woodwork, calling me an idiot and tried to disprove me by asking "are you a hitting coach" and such. Now that people are finally seeing the light, the Cohen defenders cannot defend the trends that cannot be refuted.

Baseball is a complicated game physically and mentally. Those people who've never been exposed to the intricacies of the game, do not really know about them. I try to bring in depth posts to explain the things that our players are doing and why we may not be doing something successfully. Hence my posts on our mechanics and why we have very little power. Or our bunting woes and the mechanical flaws we display that is causing that. Or the baserunning woes. Base running is almost as complicated as hitting or defense and had a ton of factors that should be analyzed each play by the runner. I say all of this because I'm tired of seeing us not get the full potential of our players by either not teaching correct physical mechanics and mental aspects or hiring someone that will.

Do I really need to go back and compile archived posts to refresh everyone?



He knows way more than everybody else. You're not picking on him. He will tell you how you are an idiot.

[I seen it dawg]

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

We've got to find a back end guy desperately. If we do there won't be so much nuclear war over the small ball. Our bullpen is killing our season. A stopper moves everybody up in role which makes them way more effective.

[shoeless joe]

The only people making this an either/or situation are Todd and Joe.

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.

I think the bullpen is the big issue, people with an agenda do not want to look at it from that perspective because us losing while bunting makes them feel good about their knowledge and they run back here and yell "I told you so!", when the absolute fact remains that the reason we have lost so many games we should have won is our bullpen.

And for the thousandth time: I agree that we bunt too much. I think it can be a good play at times but Cohen needs to scale back and let our hitters that we do have hit.

[I seen it dawg]

Hilarious! I've only restated this year what I've been saying the last 3-4 years. The only difference in this year vs the last few, is you and others no longer have a leg to stand on, in your attempts to call me an idiot for what I am stating about our team that is causing the poor hitting and bunting. Why did everyone go to extreme extents the past few years to discredit my posts and call me an idiot for what I was bringing to the table about hitting? I was showing how Cohen was actually holding back the offense and our players mechanics were not that great. And this was the reason for the offensive woes. All the Cohen defendes came out of the woodwork, calling me an idiot and tried to disprove me by asking "are you a hitting coach" and such. Now that people are finally seeing the light, the Cohen defenders cannot defend the trends that cannot be refuted.

Baseball is a complicated game physically and mentally. Those people who've never been exposed to the intricacies of the game, do not really know about them. I try to bring in depth posts to explain the things that our players are doing and why we may not be doing something successfully. Hence my posts on our mechanics and why we have very little power. Or our bunting woes and the mechanical flaws we display that is causing that. Or the baserunning woes. Base running is almost as complicated as hitting or defense and had a ton of factors that should be analyzed each play by the runner. I say all of this because I'm tired of seeing us not get the full potential of our players by either not teaching correct physical mechanics and mental aspects or hiring someone that will.

Do I really need to go back and compile archived posts to refresh everyone?

Again...I DONT LIKE ALL THE BUNTING. Stop including me in all your rants and chest thumping about how you were disrespected and your knowledge was laughed at. You have become one of those that have to tell people all the time how much you are right or how much more you know. You haven't said a damn thing at any time that people who have either played a little or coached a little haven't heard or know already. And you say it over and over and over and over and over and over and over. You're getting right there with Smitty which is being ignorable.

[I seen it dawg]

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.

I think the bullpen is the big issue, people with an agenda do not want to look at it from that perspective because us losing while bunting makes them feel good about their knowledge and they run back here and yell "I told you so!", when the absolute fact remains that the reason we have lost so many games we should have won is our bullpen.

And for the thousandth time: I agree that we bunt too much. I think it can be a good play at times but Cohen needs to scale back and let our hitters that we do have hit.

Post of the thread.

[maroonmania]

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.



We've lost by scores of 3-2, 2-1, 9-6, 3-1,10-5 and 8-4. So of our 6 losses 3 of them definitely lie with the pitching staff but the other 3 are squarely on the shoulders of the offense. If you hold someone to 3 runs or less you should be able to find a way to win especially at home. Bottom line, 2 more runs per game would likely have us at 3 total losses right now rather than 6 even WITH the crappy performances we have gotten out of our bullpen. I love how you say you are not making it either/or but then you say the bullpen is the big issue. Unfortunately, we have 2 big issues at the moment, bullpen and offense. When you NEVER score more than 4 or 5 runs you constantly keep added pressure on your pitching staff because they have to be VERY good ALL the time.

[maroonmania]

delete

[Todd4State]

Did it not dawn on anybody that there is a REASON why smitty is using stats from LAST YEAR in SEC ONLY games to "prove" his point? And I will man up and apologize for being hard on some people with some name calling- which is not me. So, apologies for that.

Now, that said- the TRUTH about our bunting and our offense. For THIS year. I included times we sac bunted and time we bunted and recorded a hit or reached on an error. I looked at home many runs we scored and also how many times we didn't score. I think this paints a more accurate picture rather than percentages of what might happen.

TOTAL BUNTS- 55

SACS- 27

BUNTS THAT WENT FOR HITS- 24

TIMES WE BUNTED AND THE OTHER TEAM MADE AN ERROR- 4

TOTAL RUNS SCORED IN INNINGS WE BUNTED- 66

INNINGS WE BUNTED AND DIDN'T SCORE- 14

I think the results are pretty obvious- we bunt a lot. BUT we reach base about 50% of the time we do it- including times we are trying to make an out. And it's impossible to know unless we are a coach or player how many of those "sacrifices" were meant to be trying for a hit. Now, I did not- but should have counted the innings that we scored a run when we bunted. Looking at the data and going through all of it, I am certain it's a majority of the time.

But these numbers bring up a point that I think gets lost in this discussion. And that's being really good at bunting. I would surmise that in some cases teams hurt themselves because they don't work on bunting enough to be good at it. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that if you have Mark McGwire that you should have him spend hours working on laying down bunts. What I am saying is that speed guys should focus on it more- because those are the players that can really use it as a weapon. So, the difference between 2014 and THIS year is we're a lot better at bunting. OLD sabermetrics would say "you just shouldn't bunt". I say work on it with the right players and just like anything else you will see benefits.

And NOT one word from me about the bullpen. Until then.

[Todd4State]

Did it not dawn on anybody that there is a REASON why smitty is using stats from LAST YEAR in SEC ONLY games to "prove" his point? And I will man up and apologize for being hard on some people with some name calling- which is not me. So, apologies for that.

Now, that said- the TRUTH about our bunting and our offense. For THIS year. I included times we sac bunted and time we bunted and recorded a hit or reached on an error. I looked at home many runs we scored and also how many times we didn't score. I think this paints a more accurate picture rather than percentages of what might happen.

TOTAL BUNTS- 55

SACS- 27

BUNTS THAT WENT FOR HITS- 24

TIMES WE BUNTED AND THE OTHER TEAM MADE AN ERROR- 4

TOTAL RUNS SCORED IN INNINGS WE BUNTED- 66

INNINGS WE BUNTED AND DIDN'T SCORE- 14

I think the results are pretty obvious- we bunt a lot. BUT we reach base about 50% of the time we do it- including times we are trying to make an out. And it's impossible to know unless we are a coach or player how many of those "sacrifices" were meant to be trying for a hit. Now, I did not- but should have counted the innings that we scored a run when we bunted. Looking at the data and going through all of it, I am certain it's a majority of the time.

But these numbers bring up a point that I think gets lost in this discussion. And that's being really good at bunting. I would surmise that in some cases teams hurt themselves because they don't work on bunting enough to be good at it. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that if you have Mark McGwire that you should have him spend hours working on laying down bunts. What I am saying is that speed guys should focus on it more- because those are the players that can really use it as a weapon. So, the difference between 2014 and THIS year is we're a lot better at bunting. OLD sabermetrics would say "you just shouldn't bunt". I say work on it with the right players and just like anything else you will see benefits.

And NOT one word from me about the bullpen. Until then.

[Todd4State]

We've lost by scores of 3-2, 2-1, 9-6, 3-1,10-5 and 8-4. So of our 6 losses 3 of them definitely lie with the pitching staff but the other 3 are squarely on the shoulders of the offense. If you hold someone to 3 runs or less you should be able to find a way to win especially at home. Bottom line, 2 more runs per game would likely have us at 3 total losses right now rather than 6 even WITH the crappy performances we have gotten out of our bullpen. I love how you say you are not making it either/or but then you say the bullpen is the big issue. Unfortunately, we have 2 big issues at the moment, bullpen and offense. When you NEVER score more than 4 or 5 runs you constantly keep added pressure on your pitching staff because they have to be VERY good ALL the time.


Speaking solely on bunting- in the three games we scored 2 runs or less in your sample size- we bunted a grand total of four times in those three games combined.

I do agree with you that three of those losses are on the bullpen and three are on the offense. But as far as the bullpen is concerned, in the time frame of your sample size it doesn't include a game that we won in extra innings where we had a 3+ run lead, blew it and then won.

It would be interesting to see how many complaints about the offense would be on this board if we were 20-3 as opposed to 17-6.

[Smitty]

5 years of Todd including drag bunts in the sacrifice discussion. 5 years.

[Smitty]

You use SEC stats because that's what matters. You saying our offense is okay because we beat up on Alcorn Cincy and Alabama A&M... That's funny

[bulldogcountry1]

One thing that these stats do not account for is the actual percentage of success of getting the bunt down. There's really no way to compile that info without watching film because it's not in the box score, but you have to have a high rate of success getting a bunt down to even start the discussion "to bunt or not to bunt". As much as we practice it, it seems as though we do not execute at a high enough rate. The first couple years of Cohen's tenure, I would bet my house that there wasn't a lot of buy-in, and the rate of execution was low. I don't think anyone is purposefully not executing now, but there has to be some level of mental letdown in some of these situations.

I also don't think Cohen takes the individual player into account when calling a bunt. Obviously some are better than others at bunting, but Cohen essentially goes by the situation, regardless of who is at the plate or what they have done in the game. Cody Brown gets two doubles, then...bunt.

[maroonmania]

One thing that these stats do not account for is the actual percentage of success of getting the bunt down. There's really no way to compile that info without watching film because it's not in the box score, but you have to have a high rate of success getting a bunt down to even start the discussion "to bunt or not to bunt". As much as we practice it, it seems as though we do not execute at a high enough rate. The first couple years of Cohen's tenure, I would bet my house that there wasn't a lot of buy-in, and the rate of execution was low. I don't think anyone is purposefully not executing now, but there has to be some level of mental letdown in some of these situations.

I also don't think Cohen takes the individual player into account when calling a bunt. Obviously some are better than others at bunting, but Cohen essentially goes by the situation, regardless of who is at the plate or what they have done in the game. Cody Brown gets two doubles, then...bunt.

Yep, the statistics used on here have been using a 100% bunt success rate which we know doesn't happen in games. Guys foul off bunts and get in 0-2 holes, pop up bunts for outs or bunt too hard and the lead runner gets thrown out anyway. Just the other day folks on here were griping about Humphries popping out on a bunt but does anyone really expect him to be a good bunter??

[Todd4State]

You use SEC stats because that's what matters. You saying our offense is okay because we beat up on Alcorn Cincy and Alabama A&M... That's funny

Not as funny as you trying to use LAST year's data to attempt and fail to show that there is a problem with THIS year's offense- and just hope that no one notices.

And since you want SEC data- we bunted 10 times against Bama, five of which went for hits, reached on an error once, and scored 10 runs in innings we bunted while not scoring in only one inning that we bunted.

If you want, I have Arizona and San Diego as well.

And before you ask, we bunted once against Arkansas- Pine Bluff.

[Todd4State]

Yep, the statistics used on here have been using a 100% bunt success rate which we know doesn't happen in games. Guys foul off bunts and get in 0-2 holes, pop up bunts for outs or bunt too hard and the lead runner gets thrown out anyway. Just the other day folks on here were griping about Humphries popping out on a bunt but does anyone really expect him to be a good bunter??

The thing is just because you foul off a bunt- you still have an opportunity to get a hit assuming you didn't bunt strike two. I'm sure there are times that guys do indeed get a hit after fouling off a bunt. I'm sure there are more times when a guy doesn't get a bunt down and then goes on to record an out.

Personally, I think it's silly to count foul balls as failed bunt attempts because it's essentially the same as fouling off a ball in general. We don't count foul balls as a failed at bat or penalize a hitter in general for swinging at a ball and fouling it off, why should we do the same for a bunt?

[Smitty]

Your unwillingness to separate sacrifice bunts and bunting for a hit is absurd.

[Todd4State]

One thing that these stats do not account for is the actual percentage of success of getting the bunt down. There's really no way to compile that info without watching film because it's not in the box score, but you have to have a high rate of success getting a bunt down to even start the discussion "to bunt or not to bunt". As much as we practice it, it seems as though we do not execute at a high enough rate. The first couple years of Cohen's tenure, I would bet my house that there wasn't a lot of buy-in, and the rate of execution was low. I don't think anyone is purposefully not executing now, but there has to be some level of mental letdown in some of these situations.

I also don't think Cohen takes the individual player into account when calling a bunt. Obviously some are better than others at bunting, but Cohen essentially goes by the situation, regardless of who is at the plate or what they have done in the game. Cody Brown gets two doubles, then...bunt.

I think it seems that way because as fans we magnify everything about our team and tend to remember the mistakes and not pay as much attention when we execute because as fans we "expect" to execute.

I do agree about there being a mental letdown when any player doesn't execute.

You might be right about Cohen simply going by situation rather than the individual. Rea has bunted once- and he got a hit. Humphreys has bunted three times and was successful on one I believe. I'm a huge advocate of dropping Cody Brown down and moving Robson up to the two spot.

We have players now that are a lot better at bunting than we've ever had as well- Robson is the best since Cohen has arrived. Vickerson is very good at it. Gridley and Spruill are pretty good at it. Brown is probably the fifth best behind that group IMO.

[Todd4State]

Your unwillingness to separate sacrifice bunts and bunting for a hit is absurd.

Not nearly as absurd as your two strike hitting approach. Among other things...

The fact of the matter is the results show that we're not giving away nearly as many runs as you assert. Which is the real reason why you went for last year's stats with last year's team which actually DID have a problem offensively. Looking at the data of the 14 innings we didn't score, there were at least three where we actually bunted and got a hit and didn't score- which makes your claims even more wrong.

[Smitty]

I'm working on 2013 right now, but just looking at the difference in year-to-year is eye-opening too. Our best hitters weren't doing the bunting in 2013. They were in 2014.

2013
Frazier - 5
Renfroe - 0
Detz - 1
Pirtle - 2
Rea - 4

2014
Pirtle - 8
Bradford - 7
Collins - 7
Heck - 7
Henderson - 8

2013's best five hitters sac bunted 12 times
2014's best five hitters sac bunted 37 times

[Really Clark?]

I'm working on 2013 right now, but just looking at the difference in year-to-year is eye-opening too. Our best hitters weren't doing the bunting in 2013. They were in 2014.

2013
Frazier - 5
Renfroe - 0
Detz - 1
Pirtle - 2
Rea - 4

2014
Pirtle - 8
Bradford - 7
Collins - 7
Heck - 7
Henderson - 8

2013's best five hitters sac bunted 12 times
2014's best five hitters sac bunted 37 times

Nothing for nothing but Henderson wasn't #5 it was Armstrong and I think he only had 1 sac??? Probably need to double check me on that. 2013 5 are a bit of a different type of hitter and they had a ton more hits and even with all the extra at bats hit and less double plays percentage wise than the 2014 top 5. Bit of an apples to orange comparison.

[Smitty]

Nothing for nothing but Henderson wasn't #5 it was Armstrong and I think he only had 1 sac??? Probably need to double check me on that

Armstrong had 2 percentage points on batting average, but Henderson bested him by 26 points in SLG and 44 points on OBP.

[Really Clark?]

Armstrong had 2 percentage points on batting average, but Henderson bested him by 26 points in SLG and 44 points on OBP.

Ok but if you are using the slash lines for compassion then you have to consider Rea and Vickerson and I think you have to consider number of ab as well. 2013 5 had 196+ per hitter. Big difference with Henderson only having 113 compared to Armstrong Rea or Vickerson. The flip side of that is the actual bunt number in percentages increases a good bit for 2014 compared to 2013. But I still think you have to consider the players. Look at Pirtle Rea and Deitz numbers from 2013 to 2014. Now Pirtle went up but Rea went down eventhough he was hitting worse and had almost the same number of ab. Same kind of deal with Deitz. About the same number of ab and only one more sac bunt and with him really tanking in hitting. Notice that that is two of the previous year top 5 hitters not a part of the numbers in 2014 and they were bout the same in 2014 in sac bunts.

[engie]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

You are a ****ing idiot. I've held a consistently anti-sacrifice bunting stance since well before Will James was a persona on message boards. But when you can't argue someone's actual thoughts -- just make some up and attribute them to that person. It's a joke -- just not a very funny one. Like you, actually.

[engie]

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

Come around? I've never changed my stance one inch on bunting. Smitty can attest that I've had the same consistent thought process about it since his very first threads and inclination to question it. Back when it was taboo and he was getting slaughtered for it -- I was already agreeing in principle with him. I've argued with him about plenty of different stuff -- and even argued with his manner of presentation on this at times -- but I have never once argued with the premise that we are bunting at bad times far too often and in bad situations... Maybe a few specific instances where I was OK with a bunt that he wasn't -- but overall -- I've held a consistent stance on it...

[engie]

Hilarious! I've only restated this year what I've been saying the last 3-4 years. The only difference in this year vs the last few, is you and others no longer have a leg to stand on, in your attempts to call me an idiot for what I am stating about our team that is causing the poor hitting and bunting. Why did everyone go to extreme extents the past few years to discredit my posts and call me an idiot for what I was bringing to the table about hitting? I was showing how Cohen was actually holding back the offense and our players mechanics were not that great. And this was the reason for the offensive woes. All the Cohen defenders came out of the woodwork, calling me an idiot and tried to disprove me by asking "are you a hitting coach" and such. Now that people are finally seeing the light, the Cohen defenders cannot defend the trends that cannot be refuted.

Baseball is a complicated game physically and mentally. Those people who've never been exposed to the intricacies of the game, do not really know about them. I try to bring in depth posts to explain the things that our players are doing and why we may not be doing something successfully. Hence my posts on our mechanics and why we have very little power. Or our bunting woes and the mechanical flaws we display that is causing that. Or the baserunning woes. Base running is almost as complicated as hitting or defense and had a ton of factors that should be analyzed each play by the runner. I say all of this because I'm tired of seeing us not get the full potential of our players by either not teaching correct physical mechanics and mental aspects or hiring someone that will.

Do I really need to go back and compile archived posts to refresh everyone?

You are still an idiot -- and literally thinking you are a better hitting coach that knows more about it than John Cohen and consistently holding to that belief proves it.