So sad, Hotty Toddy has lost yet another one today

[MabenMaroon]

But on the bright side** they will probably get the second game in today, giving them the chance to salvage a game.

[civildawg]

delete

[Jacksondevildog]

5-4 on the season.

They have one more today vs UCF, a midweek game in Hattiesburg vs USM, 3 at home versus Stetson, 2 at Louisville and 3 at LSU. That's an extremely tough stretch that could get the natives restless in Oxford.

Kendall Rogers will probably be so pumped about how they barely lost in competitive fashion that he will move them up in his rankings this week.

[MsStateBaseball]

I will be shocked if they win 35 and have a winning SEC record.

[MsStateBaseball]

I bet Trent has arm trouble this season. Bianco leaving him in way too long bc they have no one else.

[scottycameron]

wtf? I'm checking the time/date and I don't get it. They playing overseas or what?

[BiscuitEater]

I will be shocked if they win 35 and have a winning SEC record.

so ... what seems to be the problems?

Most 'services' had them ranked somewhat high ... higher than us.

[msstate7]

wtf? I'm checking the time/date and I don't get it. They playing overseas or what?

Rain out yesterday. Playing 7 innings and 9 innings. Guess they trying to get it in before travel time

[klong-dog]

Looks like they spent wayyyyy too much time in the off season, celebrating their 1st CWS birth in Fidddy yearz. Can't say I blame em.

[MsStateBaseball]

so ... what seems to be the problems?

Most 'services' had them ranked somewhat high ... higher than us.

Lost lots of talent thru transfer, grad, draft. Sikes played above himself last year, they have a 6-5 250 3b man not really agile, Bianco is notorious for messing up pitchers-he calls every pitch, to me they lost so much talent no way they can make it up in one year.

Add the extremely tough schedule at Vanderbilt, at Louisville, florida.

The writers picked us top 10 last year after Omaha and see what happened.

Main thing to me is their pitching is very suspect beyond 2 starters. I foresee them getting beat up in SEC.

[Jacksondevildog]

Not to mention they lost one of their possible weekend starters with a torn UCL a couple of weeks back. Sam Smith is shaky at best. Christian Trent is good, but that's almost all they have, minus a couple of good bullpen guys. Weatherby being one.

[Todd4State]

5-4 on the season.

They have one more today vs UCF, a midweek game in Hattiesburg vs USM, 3 at home versus Stetson, 2 at Louisville and 3 at LSU. That's an extremely tough stretch that could get the natives restless in Oxford.

Kendall Rogers will probably be so pumped about how they barely lost in competitive fashion that he will move them up in his rankings this week.

I bet Ole Miss beats USM, but it's not going to be easy in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles are promoting it like a World Series game. They'll probably at least win the Stetson series in Oxford. They are 6-4 and haven't really beaten anybody. The rest of that speaks for itself.

[Todd4State]

so ... what seems to be the problems?

Most 'services' had them ranked somewhat high ... higher than us.

Last year they had a LOT of fourth-fifth year players and they didn't like our run to Omaha in 2013, which made them extra motivated. Those players are gone now even though a couple of guys that were key freshmen for them last year are back plus a couple of key guys like Orvis and Trent. And then on top of that, they overscheduled and they are paying the price for it at the moment. They also lost their hitting coach who was the brains behind the operation as well. That will affect them because a good hitting coach can help players make in season adjustments to help them get out of slumps- which happens to everyone not named Ted Williams. Losing Godwin will hurt them long term in recruiting as well.

[Todd4State]

I bet Trent has arm trouble this season. Bianco leaving him in way too long bc they have no one else.

I don't know if he will have arm trouble or not- but they will overextend him because they don't have the bullpen depth that they had last year. Their first game against UCF is exhibit A. Trent was cruising and then he gives up 3 runs because they trusted him more than their bullpen. Eventually it cost them the game.

I wouldn't be shocked if he does have arm problems by the end of the year though. He's not all that big and he is going to get overextended.

[msstate7]

I don't know if he will have arm trouble or not- but they will overextend him because they don't have the bullpen depth that they had last year. Their first game against UCF is exhibit A. Trent was cruising and then he gives up 3 runs because they trusted him more than their bullpen. Eventually it cost them the game.

I wouldn't be shocked if he does have arm problems by the end of the year though. He's not all that big and he is going to get overextended.

May just wear out by the end of the year like Ross has in his career.

[smootness]

D1 Baseball is the only service that ranked them preseason, correct?

I'm pretty sure we were ranked higher everywhere else.

[nsvltndog]

They are struggling so much that their RPI on Warren Nolan has risen to #4 this morning after their 2nd consecutive loss. This certainly backs up the notion of early season RPI being meaningless.

[HSVDawg]

The one thing about OM is their nonconference schedule at least gives them an opportunity to rebound and still host if they can put it together before SEC play. Looking at the RPI yesterday, OM (at 5-3), were 20 spots ahead of us (at 12-0), and before the loss today had the #3 RPI. That speaks volumes on how much more difficult their nonconference schedule is than ours.

[Todd4State]

May just wear out by the end of the year like Ross has in his career.

You're probably right. Good news is we play them the next to last series of the year.

[chef dixon]

They are struggling so much that their RPI on Warren Nolan has risen to #4 this morning after their 2nd consecutive loss. This certainly backs up the notion of early season RPI being meaningless.

100 spot rise from last night

[Todd4State]

The one thing about OM is their nonconference schedule at least gives them an opportunity to rebound and still host if they can put it together before SEC play. Looking at the RPI yesterday, OM (at 5-3), were 20 spots ahead of us (at 12-0), and before the loss today had the #3 RPI. That speaks volumes on how much more difficult their nonconference schedule is than ours.

Historically a team with a really high RPI and a record of 30-26 still won't host. You still have to win at least some of the games. Also, you don't want to have to count on rebounding in SEC play. I don't care how good Warren Nolan and Kendall Rodgers think Wright State and William and Mary are- if you aren't beating those teams you are going to struggle in SEC play.

[maroonmania]

They are struggling so much that their RPI on Warren Nolan has risen to #4 this morning after their 2nd consecutive loss. This certainly backs up the notion of early season RPI being meaningless.

Yep, they will probably move up in the D1baseball rankings this week. Caption will read "Rebels have all the breaks go against them as they show great promise in their series loss to UCF".

[HSVDawg]

100 spot rise from last night

They were #3 last night, #4 today. So, minimal change since their loss today. Before last night I'm not sure what it was.

[HSVDawg]

Historically a team with a really high RPI and a record of 30-26 still won't host. You still have to win at least some of the games. Also, you don't want to have to count on rebounding in SEC play. I don't care how good Warren Nolan and Kendall Rodgers think Wright State and William and Mary are- if you aren't beating those teams you are going to struggle in SEC play.

I agree Todd, that's why I made sure to say "IF they put it together before SEC play". My main point was they have a much larger margin of error than we do in our nonconference schedule.

[chef dixon]

They were #3 last night, #4 today. So, minimal change since their loss today. Before last night I'm not sure what it was.

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.

[HSVDawg]

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.

I'm thinking it may have been a mistake. I checked it at around 11:30 PM last night. OM was at #3 and we were at #23. Had their record listed as 5-3, so it was up to date before their loss today. It actually makes sense for their RPI to be very high right now because every team they have played except maybe 1 or 2 are currently in the Top 50-60. That's why I'd be shocked if it was ever as low as 104 yesterday.

[sandwolf]

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.

[chef dixon]

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.

William and Mary probably pulled out a tough one against Towson.

[engie]

RPI is still not a valid formula because of lacked interconnectedness that multiple opponents give. It's week 3. It'll be fully valid about week 5.

[msstate7]

Ucf trying to take the lead. Down 1 with bases loaded and no outs

[smootness]

The one thing about OM is their nonconference schedule at least gives them an opportunity to rebound and still host if they can put it together before SEC play. Looking at the RPI yesterday, OM (at 5-3), were 20 spots ahead of us (at 12-0), and before the loss today had the #3 RPI. That speaks volumes on how much more difficult their nonconference schedule is than ours.

No, it speaks to how weird RPI is this early.

[MedDawg]

William and Mary probably pulled out a tough one against Towson.OM's non-conference schedule won't be any better than it is now (RPI-wise). Some of those teams they've played won't have Top 100 RPI's later in the season.

The Rebs do have a really tough SEC schedule ahead of them--@LSU, @Arkansas, Florida at home, @Vandy. Even @Missouri may be tough this year. They better hope to sweep the middlin' SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, Tennessee) at home to have a decent record.

[RougeDawg]

so ... what seems to be the problems?

Most 'services' had them ranked somewhat high ... higher than us.

The main reason for their fall is the loss of their hitting coach from last season. He was the mastermind behind their potent offense. They raked last year because they had a dedicated true "hitting" coach. Most of the better offenses in baseball have one of these. I believe they hired him away from A&M and the Aggies offensive numbers saw a huge dropoff after he left as well. A good dedicated hitting coach can have a night and day effect on the offense.

[chef dixon]

Naturally they moved up to #1 now after salvaging game 3 of the series v. UCF.

[HSVDawg]

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.

I just looked at it again. I think what you and chef dixon may have seen is their winning percentage rank (which is the first column of rankings from the left), which is 104. However, their actual RPI rank is now #1 after they won their second game. This is primarily due to their SOS which is now #2 nationally.

FYI, link is here which shows the latest and greatest way-too-early RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/rpi

ETA: We are now #21 with an SOS ranked 147 of roughly 300 teams.

[Coach34]

They are not going to have to worry about hosting after they finish about 7th or 8th in the SEC