dickiedawg
02-17-2015, 12:07 AM
Valentine's Day is over, and it's time to start speculating in earnest about who is going to be in, who's going to be out and where everyone will be seeded come tournament time. Since the men are out of the discussion, let's talk about happier things, like the success our women are having.
Our Lady Bulldogs are a lock for the NCAA' in the midst of their most successful regular season ever, having tied a school record with 24 wins with 3 to play. Fans have taken notice, breaking the school's single-season attendance record. So what can we expect moving forward?
(Sorry, I got a little rambly at times)
The key number for both SEC Tournament and the NCAA tournament seeding is 4. The top 4 teams in the conference get a two-day "bye" into the quarterfinals. In the NCAA tournament this year, a No. 4 seed earns you the honor and advantage of hosting the first and second rounds.
Seeds 1 and 2 are all but sewn up by UT and South Carolina. Right now, MSU stands alone at the No. 3 spot in the standings at 9-4. That looks great, but doesn't tell the whole story.
4 teams are in the hunt for the top 4, all with 4 losses. MSU is 9-4, While Texas A&M, UK and LSU are 8-4.
MSU has two big problems with regard to a top 4 finish: A road trip to South Carolina, and a gloomy tiebreaker outlook.
-For argument's sake, let's say MSU goes 2-1 over the final 3 games (@AL, @SC, vs. UM). 3-0 would very likely lock up a top 4 seed, and 1-2 likely gives us no shot. That puts us with 5 losses and needing some help.
-A&M would be the best to finish tied with, as we beat them in Starkville whereas we lost to UK and LSU. They control their own destiny with road trips to Kentucky and LSU. That gives them a very tough, but doable, road to run the table. They already have a win over LSU this year. Missouri and Florida at home should be wins.
-LSU is in the best shape, tiebreaker wise, with wins over MSU and Kentucky and a loss to A&M. They also have the easiest remaining schedule, with only A&M left with a winning SEC record. On the other hand they have by far the lowest RPI and worst overall record of the 4 teams, which might suggest they have the best chance of dropping a game they shouldn't (at UM, at AR or against uga.)
-Kentucky has perhaps the toughest remaining schedule, with home games against A&M and SC. They also have 2 road games left, @UM and AR. You have to assume they take care of business in those, though it certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings for one of those to pull an upset. If they beat A&M they'll be in good shape, having tiebreakers over us and A&M. Even a season-ending loss to SC wouldn't sink them in that case, assuming we also lost to SC.
There are too many variables yet to really get wrapped up in Specific scenarios. The main takeaway is that, despite having 3rd place by ourselves right now, it's a bit of an uphill battle to finish in one of those top 4 spots. Even a huge upset @SC wouldn't guarantee anything due to our poor standing with the tiebreakers (though it would help a ton). I can't think of a scenario in which we win a 3 team tiebreaker. We'll have a better idea of where things stand after UK plays A&M Thursday, BUT:
Something funny has to happen for us to earn a top 4 seed. That is to say, if everyone beats teams with worse records, loses to teams with better records and the home team wins toss ups, that leaves us on the outside looking in with LSU placing 3rd and UK getting the additional bye via tiebreaker over us.
It's crazy how much 2 double overtime losses look like they may come back to haunt us. Plus a bad loss to Vanderbilt. Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda.
UM could really help us out, with home games against LSU and Kentucky.
As for the top 4 seeds in the NCAA, we've still got a good shot. Bracketology has us as a 4 seed right now, though when the NCAA committee released their top 20 teams recently we were not among them. Our RPI is not too strong but overall I think we've got a good claim to it. Though they're not officially linked, my gut says if we at least tie for one of the top 4 spots in conference we'll get a nod. I suspect the SEC will get 4 hosts and LSU does not have a shot with a poor Overall recrecord
Regardless of seeding, byes or hosting, this team has accomplished a lot. The future is brighter still.
Our Lady Bulldogs are a lock for the NCAA' in the midst of their most successful regular season ever, having tied a school record with 24 wins with 3 to play. Fans have taken notice, breaking the school's single-season attendance record. So what can we expect moving forward?
(Sorry, I got a little rambly at times)
The key number for both SEC Tournament and the NCAA tournament seeding is 4. The top 4 teams in the conference get a two-day "bye" into the quarterfinals. In the NCAA tournament this year, a No. 4 seed earns you the honor and advantage of hosting the first and second rounds.
Seeds 1 and 2 are all but sewn up by UT and South Carolina. Right now, MSU stands alone at the No. 3 spot in the standings at 9-4. That looks great, but doesn't tell the whole story.
4 teams are in the hunt for the top 4, all with 4 losses. MSU is 9-4, While Texas A&M, UK and LSU are 8-4.
MSU has two big problems with regard to a top 4 finish: A road trip to South Carolina, and a gloomy tiebreaker outlook.
-For argument's sake, let's say MSU goes 2-1 over the final 3 games (@AL, @SC, vs. UM). 3-0 would very likely lock up a top 4 seed, and 1-2 likely gives us no shot. That puts us with 5 losses and needing some help.
-A&M would be the best to finish tied with, as we beat them in Starkville whereas we lost to UK and LSU. They control their own destiny with road trips to Kentucky and LSU. That gives them a very tough, but doable, road to run the table. They already have a win over LSU this year. Missouri and Florida at home should be wins.
-LSU is in the best shape, tiebreaker wise, with wins over MSU and Kentucky and a loss to A&M. They also have the easiest remaining schedule, with only A&M left with a winning SEC record. On the other hand they have by far the lowest RPI and worst overall record of the 4 teams, which might suggest they have the best chance of dropping a game they shouldn't (at UM, at AR or against uga.)
-Kentucky has perhaps the toughest remaining schedule, with home games against A&M and SC. They also have 2 road games left, @UM and AR. You have to assume they take care of business in those, though it certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings for one of those to pull an upset. If they beat A&M they'll be in good shape, having tiebreakers over us and A&M. Even a season-ending loss to SC wouldn't sink them in that case, assuming we also lost to SC.
There are too many variables yet to really get wrapped up in Specific scenarios. The main takeaway is that, despite having 3rd place by ourselves right now, it's a bit of an uphill battle to finish in one of those top 4 spots. Even a huge upset @SC wouldn't guarantee anything due to our poor standing with the tiebreakers (though it would help a ton). I can't think of a scenario in which we win a 3 team tiebreaker. We'll have a better idea of where things stand after UK plays A&M Thursday, BUT:
Something funny has to happen for us to earn a top 4 seed. That is to say, if everyone beats teams with worse records, loses to teams with better records and the home team wins toss ups, that leaves us on the outside looking in with LSU placing 3rd and UK getting the additional bye via tiebreaker over us.
It's crazy how much 2 double overtime losses look like they may come back to haunt us. Plus a bad loss to Vanderbilt. Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda.
UM could really help us out, with home games against LSU and Kentucky.
As for the top 4 seeds in the NCAA, we've still got a good shot. Bracketology has us as a 4 seed right now, though when the NCAA committee released their top 20 teams recently we were not among them. Our RPI is not too strong but overall I think we've got a good claim to it. Though they're not officially linked, my gut says if we at least tie for one of the top 4 spots in conference we'll get a nod. I suspect the SEC will get 4 hosts and LSU does not have a shot with a poor Overall recrecord
Regardless of seeding, byes or hosting, this team has accomplished a lot. The future is brighter still.