Baseball expectations

[dickiedawg]

Game week is finally upon us.
Where are your expectations for this club?
Honestly, mine are sky high (as in, national seed conversation). I know we lost a lot of production from last year's team and some great arms. I know the "experts" aren't high on us.
But I feel like the talent level has continued to improve and I get the feeling Cohen loves this team, which is enough for me.
What do you think, are high expectations justified or do the pollsters have it about right?

[smootness]

I don't think we can expect to be in the national seed conversation.

I do think 40 wins, a .500+ SEC record, and hosting a regional can be pretty consistent expectations for this program from here on out.

That doesn't necessarily mean that not hosting would be a disappointment every year, but I think those are pretty reasonable expectations for a program like ours.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Up until Collins went down, I expected us to have about a 50-60% chance to host. Now that's probably fallen to a 20-30%, IMO.

If we can get through the non-conference without dropping more than a few games, I feel like we'll really have a shot to make some noise and get things clicking down the stretch when Collins comes back. If we have a non-conference like last year's, I expect us to have a season similar to last year- only we'd be a more dangerous 2 seed at the end. Basically, I think we'll be tough by the end of the season no matter what.

Expecting to be in the national seed hunt is pretty damn wooly, IMO. Hopefully you're right though.

[MSUDawg4Life]

I don't know know what to expect. There are too many uncertainties surrounding this team to me. I'm not sure how the pitching is going to develop. People expect us to hit better, but other teams are going to hit better too. How much greater will our improvement be compared to other teams? Then, with Gavin Collins going down ... I don't know. I just don't know what to expect.

I'll just wait and see how it unfolds.

[MsStateBaseball]

Right now too many variables to discuss hosting. We are though, in the SECT, hence a regional for the 5th straight year. To host a regional, we need 18 plus non-conf wins (out of 26) and 17 plus SEC wins. We can do it if it comes together. Get Collins back quick and have the pitchers develop like we hope. Hudson, Young, etc.

[maroonmania]

Our expectations EVERY year at this point should be to host. To me that determines if the regular season is successful. Now past that, whether hosting or not, peak at the right time and make a big run in the NCAA tourney. But that is sort of hit and miss so over a regular season definitely finishing in the Top 16 seeds should be a reasonable goal at this point. With the talent coming in we may be able to eventually raise that up to having a goal of being a national seed but we aren't there yet.

[DudyDawg]

The Collins injury hurts us more with the young pitchers Getting reps with him early than with the bats IMO. Guys like McCord and Hudson are losing valuable time with our clear starting catcher which sucks. Luckily it's not too long. That being said, I expect (hope) for us to be a high two seed at worst, and as always, think we should host.

[HancockCountyDog]

Im really interested to see how the new balls affect game play. We have been a team that wins with pitching and defense. The new balls are supposed to supplement scoring and I just want to see how Cohen adjusts.

I expect Rea will have a nice senior year, I can think of 6-8 balls he hit last year that died on the track that apparently this year will be moon shots.

Im really interested to see how pitchers that have used the bats and balls to their advantage. Guys like Ross who rely on location and not stuff. They could be in more trouble this year. I obviously could be wrong, but I think high strikeout pitchers will adjust easier. Im just speculating, and Im extremely interested to see how it all shakes out. I still can't believe we won't have Kenny Powers to come in and shut shit down. I will miss the hell out of that guy.

[Quaoarsking]

I expect the usual suspects to be calling for Cohen's head a few weeks into the season, as they do every year.

I expect Cohen to make them look like blathering idiots by May, as he does every year.

[MSUDawg4Life]

I expect the usual suspects to be calling for Cohen's head a few weeks into the season, as they do every year.

I expect Cohen to make them look like blathering idiots by May, as he does every year.

lol

Probably the most accurate expectations yet. I'd suspect the chance of this coming true is around 100%.

[Todd4State]

I expect us to be in a SR. Collins is now a wild card as is Paul Young. As I've said it all comes down to whether a younger pitcher steps up and is able to keep Ross in the pen.

[maroonmania]

I expect the usual suspects to be calling for Cohen's head a few weeks into the season, as they do every year.

I expect Cohen to make them look like blathering idiots by May, as he does every year.

Well I do expect some unexpected losses early. We have a fairly young, inexperienced pitching staff and outfield. Plus we will now play at least the first month with our backup catcher. At this point no use in flipping out if we don't come out playing like a Top 10 team.

[Todd4State]

I actually think we start off pretty quickly. Our schedule is a lot easier than it was last year for the first two weeks. Arizona being horrible hurt our RPI too.

[SapperDawg]

I want to see some power from the lineup. We need more doubles.

[Coach34]

Expectations are the same every year now that Cohen has rebuilt the program:

Compete for the SEC title
Compete for a home Regional
Get to a Super and see what happens

[messageboardsuperhero]

Well I do expect some unexpected losses early. We have a fairly young, inexperienced pitching staff and outfield. Plus we will now play at least the first month with our backup catcher. At this point no use in flipping out if we don't come out playing like a Top 10 team.

I actually feel like OF is maybe the strongest part of our team, other than infield defense.

We will be better in the OF than we were last year- I can almost guarantee that.

[dawgs]

I do get tired of blowing non-conference games and eliminating ourselves from national seed discussion every year. That's not saying I'm disappointed with cohen and think we should look for another coach, I just don't want us costing ourselves super regional because we dicked around with arkansas st and uab too much in February and early March. I have no doubt we'll be dangerous by the end of the season, but home field advantage could be the difference between the CWS and sitting at home.

[preachermatt83]

Expectations are the same every year now that Cohen has rebuilt the program:

Compete for the SEC title
Compete for a home Regional
Get to a Super and see what happens

This! Winning a Super and going to Omaha is just icing. But being in the discussion to host a regional and winning a regional should be expectations for every year.

[engie]

I do get tired of blowing non-conference games and eliminating ourselves from national seed discussion every year. That's not saying I'm disappointed with cohen and think we should look for another coach, I just don't want us costing ourselves super regional because we dicked around with arkansas st and uab too much in February and early March. I have no doubt we'll be dangerous by the end of the season, but home field advantage could be the difference between the CWS and sitting at home.

Let's not pretend that struggling in the nonconference has been a staple of our program since the rebuild was complete. We went 26-2 in the noncon just 2 years ago...

[maroonmania]

This! Winning a Super and going to Omaha is just icing. But being in the discussion to host a regional and winning a regional should be expectations for every year.

And the key to winning a NC is regularity in making Supers and getting to Omaha. I believe we have made 9 CWS appearances but of those 9, only once have we been in consecutive years (97-98). Outside of that there has been a minimum of a 4 year gap between every appearance. Yes, its possible to make the magical run like a Fresno State but its much more likely that a team wins one because of consistently winning at a high level and eventually breaking through to the top by giving themselves ample opportunities and by the program becoming familiar with the pressures of playing in Omaha.

[Ralph]

My expectations are to make a regional, 40% chance to host, 25% make to a Super, 10% to CWS. Gavin's injury tampered my expectations, but hopefully we can make some defensive adjustments to provide some offense.

[SaltyDawg]

Gavin's injury is not good obviously, but it's not the end of the world. He will be fresh for the latter part of the season. My expectations have not changed one bit based on his injury.

Here's a link of how the same injury effected players in the past:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-06-01/sports/bal-baseball-players-have-had-mixed-results-following-hamate-bone-surgery-20120601_1_hamate-bone-wrist-surgery

[DudyDawg]

Well, D1 Baseball projected us to be third in the Virginia regional (with Liberty as the two seed)

[The Croom Diaries]

I think we'll be a quality team the likes of a Regional host, but we probably won't just because our non-conference schedule is almost entirely home games against mediocre teams. 30-40% chance we host, 60-70% we are a 2 seed with a great shot to make a run.

[State82]

Gavin's injury is not good obviously, but it's not the end of the world. He will be fresh for the latter part of the season.

This could be a slight silver lining. I would certainly prefer to have him behind the dish Friday but it can take somewhat of a toll by June so maybe we get some benefit out of the situation by tournament time.

[dawgs]

This could be a slight silver lining. I would certainly prefer to have him behind the dish Friday but it can take somewhat of a toll by June so maybe we get some benefit out of the situation by tournament time.

Well that's one view of it. The reality is that wrist/hand injuries linger long past a player's return, and can quickly lead to a lost season.

Anyone looking for a good fantasy baseball draft bargain should find a player coming off an unusually poor season that started off or was interrupted by a hand/wrist injury.

[Homedawg]

I think this is the worst team we will have in the near future. Big question marks on the mound. But we will improve later in the year hopefully as McCord, sexton and Hudson improve. We will be very good defensively. Hopefully, when Collins gets back, he has improved behind the dish. I can't watch another year of ejecto mitt. Offense is going to be improved, but can it offset the pitching??? 35-20 record and a 2-3 seed in a regional.