I don't post much anymore, but you need to see this.

[curmudgeon]

If its the only thing you remember from today - FiveThirtyEight.com, the best website for statistical geeks like me, posted this today.

Stars/Expectations vs. Reality. A certain team is rated among the worst in the country.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/pettigrew-datalab-signing-day-2.png?w=610&h=2118

[IMissJack]

I really do not see how LSU and Georgia have done better than expected. Not doubting you, but with their classes I would expect them to be contending every year.

[HoopsDawg]

I really do not see how LSU and Georgia have done better than expected. Not doubting you, but with their classes I would expect them to be contending every year.

Duke is very surprising to me.

[CadaverDawg]

Duke is very surprising to me.

Yea, I guess it's because it Goes all the way back to 2005. They had some extreme suck before Cut arrived I think.

[gravedigger]

Most informative post ive ever read from you. That shows, without any doubt, that the overall rankings are as close to crap as can be measured.

There is no way a wisconsin could be at the top if they were accurate.

[OldFatDog]

And this includes the Croom years. Be interesting to watch over the next few years.

[Homedawg]

Most informative post ive ever read from you. That shows, without any doubt, that the overall rankings are as close to crap as can be measured.

There is no way a wisconsin could be at the top if they were accurate.

That's not what this shows at all. It's not disproving rankings. Not one bit.

[KB21]

It's what I've been saying for years now. It doesn't matter what these players are rated right now. What matters is where they are rated 3 years from now. Look at our 2011 class. It wasn't rated high, but in the end, that class has produced Dak Prescott, Bernardrick McKinney, Preston Smith, Taveze Calhoun, Josh Robinson, Kendrick Market, P.J. Jones, Justin Malone, and Joe Morrow. That class produced 8 starters on a 10-3 team, 3 of which will be NFL draft picks this year.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

It's what I've been saying for years now. It doesn't matter what these players are rated right now. What matters is where they are rated 3 years from now. Look at our 2011 class. It wasn't rated high, but in the end, that class has produced Dak Prescott, Bernardrick McKinney, Preston Smith, Taveze Calhoun, Josh Robinson, Kendrick Market, P.J. Jones, Justin Malone, and Joe Morrow. That class produced 8 starters on a 10-3 team, 3 of which will be NFL draft picks this year.

This is what has me so excited about today's class. In 2011, our class was rated 45th in the country by Scout. As KB mentioned above, several from that class will be in the NFL....one, Darius Slay, already is. I can only imagine what Dan can do with a top 20 ranked class if he can accomplish what he did with the 45th ranked 2011 class.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Duke is very surprising to me.

Yeah, in about five more years or so, us and Duke are going to be up higher on these kinds of lists. 2005-2008 were not kind to us like 2009-2014.

[gravedigger]

That's not what this shows at all. It's not disproving rankings. Not one bit.

So tell me how you think it doesnt. It shows expected performance vs actual performance based on recruiting.

How do you account for so many highly rated recruiting schools over a decade being so low on the list?

[HSVDawg]

Excellent info. I would like to see this same data but only for the past 5 years. I think that would give a much more accurate representation of where programs rank with their current coaching staffs.