For all you recruiting gurus and your star rankings.........

[99jc]

Neither team playing in next week?s Super Bowl has a player that was rated five stars coming out of high school, according to this study from SB Nation.

[Homedawg]

Well that does it, I don't want any 5* guys. They all suck.

[TheDogFather]

Neither team playing in next week?s Super Bowl has a player that was rated five stars coming out of high school, according to this study from SB Nation.

Stars are not a ranking of NFL potential. So there's that.

[preachermatt83]

Well that does it, I don't want any 5* guys. They all suck.

http://i.imgur.com/ZgjiMX5.gif

[Jack Lambert]

Well that does it, I don't want any 5* guys. They all suck.

That is funny but I would imagine that there are a higher pecentage of 5 stars that suck than 3 stars. Many of these 3 star guys would be 4 and 5 stars if they played at bigger highschools.

[HancockCountyDog]

That is funny but I would imagine that there are a higher pecentage of 5 stars that suck than 3 stars. Many of these 3 star guys would be 4 and 5 stars if they played at bigger highschools.

There are hundreds of 3 stars, roughly 25-40 5 stars. Ohio state's defense had 1 five star and 10 four stars.

Bama's while team is four and five stars. How about this, I'll take 25 five stars, and I'll let you hand pick any 25 three stars you want in this years recruiting class.

[dawgs]

That is funny but I would imagine that there are a higher pecentage of 5 stars that suck than 3 stars. Many of these 3 star guys would be 4 and 5 stars if they played at bigger highschools.

And you'd be wrong.

[dawgs]

here's a recruiting nugget I read elsewhere this morning. Don't try to tell me there a high % of 5* busts than 3* busts.

10 of the last 11 national championship teams (going back to the beginning of recruiting rankings) had at least one Top 5 recruiting class in their previous five classes. The one exception was 2010 Auburn, who had a #6 class in the previous 5. All 11 had at least one Top 10 class in the previous 5.

2014: Ohio State, 6.6 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2013: FSU, 7 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2012: Bama, 2.4 AVG (5/5 Top 5, 5/5 Top 10)
2011: Bama, 4.8 AVG (4/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2010: Auburn, 14.8 AVG (0/5 Top 5, 2/5 Top 10)
2009: Bama, 11 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 2/5 Top 10)
2008: Florida, 5.2 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2007: LSU, 7 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2006: Florida, 6 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2005: Texas, 8.4 AVG (1/5 Top 5, 3/5 Top 10)
2004: USC, 8.8 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 3/5 Top 10)

[sandwolf]

That is funny but I would imagine that there are a higher pecentage of 5 stars that suck than 3 stars.

And you would imagine completely wrong.

[CadaverDawg]

I think there is a huge gray area when considering 3 and 4 star talent. Clearly, a majority of 5 star guys are legit because there are only a handful of players given that 5 star status yearly, and they are heavily evaluated. But I think a large majority of 3 and 4 star guys are rated incorrectly, which would be easy to do considering the amount of players you have in each of those classifications. For instance, Joe Morrow was a 4 star and DeRunnya a 3. JRob a 3 star and Kailo Moore a 4 star. Etc...

So I think just because one says "stars aren't the only thing that matters", doesn't mean they think they could take a group of 3 stars and beat a group of 5 stars. Although that is definitely possible if those 3 stars fit the scheme, are developed well, the plays are called well, the plays are executed well, etc..

[Statefan]

I think there is a huge gray area when considering 3 and 4 star talent. Clearly, a majority of 5 star guys are legit because there are only a handful of players given that 5 star status yearly, and they are heavily evaluated. But I think a large majority of 3 and 4 star guys are rated incorrectly, which would be easy to do considering the amount of players you have in each of those classifications. For instance, Joe Morrow was a 4 star and DeRunnya a 3. JRob a 3 star and Kailo Moore a 4 star. Etc...

So I think just because one says "stars aren't the only thing that matters", doesn't mean they think they could take a group of 3 stars and beat a group of 5 stars. Although that is definitely possible if those 3 stars fit the scheme, are developed well, the plays are called well, the plays are executed well, etc..

I think at the end of the day, the difference in a player that is rated and 88 vs one rated a 91 is pretty minimal. There is no difference between a high 3*/low 4*

[Todd4State]

here's a recruiting nugget I read elsewhere this morning. Don't try to tell me there a high % of 5* busts than 3* busts.

10 of the last 11 national championship teams (going back to the beginning of recruiting rankings) had at least one Top 5 recruiting class in their previous five classes. The one exception was 2010 Auburn, who had a #6 class in the previous 5. All 11 had at least one Top 10 class in the previous 5.

2014: Ohio State, 6.6 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2013: FSU, 7 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2012: Bama, 2.4 AVG (5/5 Top 5, 5/5 Top 10)
2011: Bama, 4.8 AVG (4/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2010: Auburn, 14.8 AVG (0/5 Top 5, 2/5 Top 10)
2009: Bama, 11 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 2/5 Top 10)
2008: Florida, 5.2 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2007: LSU, 7 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2006: Florida, 6 AVG (3/5 Top 5, 4/5 Top 10)
2005: Texas, 8.4 AVG (1/5 Top 5, 3/5 Top 10)
2004: USC, 8.8 AVG (2/5 Top 5, 3/5 Top 10)
Who would have thought that those teams would have good players on them?

[Jack Lambert]

And you'd be wrong.

How do you proove it one way or another?

[sandwolf]

How do you proove it one way or another?

There have been numerous articles written on this.....they all show that more stars = a higher likelihood of being drafted.

[FlabLoser]

Who cares.

We're #11 in the country. Enjoy it.

[dawgs]

How do you proove it one way or another?

Plenty of articles and blogs and message board posts have run through the numbers, and everyone of them shows that 5* have the highest success rates, then 4*, then 3*, then 2*, then unrated players. now that's not saying there might not be more 3* that pan out than 4-5* from a sheer numerical perspective, but there's also exponentially more 3* recruits than 4-5* every season. But the numbers hold that the higher rated the player, the better odds of them becoming a quality starter, all-conference, all-american, NFL player, 1st round, etc.

[MabenMaroon]

I would love to have a mess of 4* & 5* players coming in. According to the definitions of the star rankings that would mean that they would like make a significant impact their freshman year for a 5* and would likely be able to contribute if a 4*. But they need to be players in position of need and would have to have a good work ethic and fit the team chemistry. Doesn't help to have a bunch of 4*/5* wr's if you don't have a qb to get them the ball. Been plenty of 4*/5* qb's that flopped because they had nobody to throw to or the o-line couldn't get them enough time to stay upright and throw the ball. Gotta be a good fit, the right piece.
Don't need any Chad Kelley/Kenny Trill types either that would poison the locker room. Plus you have to look at the want and the desire of the prospect, is he going to the work or have the ability to become a 4*/5* in college or has he peaked.
All that being said, we are doing pretty well with the recruiting aspect and have shown we can recognize a diamond in the rough or develop a 3* high school athlete in to a 4*/5* college player. And we are adding more 4*'s every cycle, if those 4*'s develop as the 3*'s have so far in Coach Mullen's system, it won't be too far off in the future that 5*'s that fit our family make-up and positional needs will be knocking on our door wanting in.

[thedawg]

I just want to give everyone an example of something to chew on.. I coached at a premier program in this state (for sure top 5 in talent, prestige, and state championships). I now coach at a smaller school that is not nearly as highly thought of. Both schools have a Juco level recruit on the offensive line. At prestigious school you have a really good kid that didnt start until his senior year. He was a good not great high school player, but he started for (prestigious school). Hes 6'1 265. At my current school we have a kid that was a three year starter at the same position. He is better than the other kid. Hes also 6'3 285. Dont get me wrong hes not an SEC player but he is a good bit better than first kid. I am not biased as I think the world of both kids and have kept in contact with the kid at the prestigious school. Prestigious school kid has 8 JUCO offers because of where he played. Other kid still has none and is being kept warm by three of the worst JUCOs. Its all about perception and star rankings are the same. Stars come down to where you play and who has offered.. plain and simple

[Covercorner2]

Is it the chicken or the egg? Is Alabama really recruiting the most "talented" players in America? Or are they recruiting the best players for their system, developing them well for the NFL, and possessing the name brand to the point where they develop a reputation that every player they offer is either a 4 or 5 star player just based upon that offer? I have no doubt that they are recruiting elite talent and definitely are able to almost hand pick who they want, but it makes me wonder if offers are what determines the difference between a high 3 star and a 4-5 star player, and, ultimately, why so many kids get unnoticed.

Not to mention, this is why elite programs are always going to recruit "well" and have high class rankings no matter what actual "talent" they bring in.

[thedawg]

The answer is both... Alabama is recruiting the most talented players and developing them. As you said they get to hand pick their talent because everyone wants to be there. The trick is Alabama aint going to East Webster to look at Johnthan Banks even though hes just as good athletically as whatever 5 star they signed that year. They dont have to go to East Webster to get him. So when Mississippi State goes to East Webster and get him he A) doesnt have the big offers because those schools arnt going to recruit his school B) He doesnt play in the Marquee South Panola/ Starkville games C)Website writers are for the most part lazy and just go along with group think. Its a hell of a lot easier to say ok this kid out of East Webster is a good looking kid and State offered. Hes a three star. Then it is to actually put in hours of film and God forbid go to Mathiston and watch a game. There are other factors.... Alabama isnt gonna try to project what Benardrick McKinney will become after he stops playing high school quarterback and gets in a real strength program. Hes gonna be a first round pick but so was CJ Mosley who is the same age with alot less questions. So do stars matter? Yes. Because Alabama identifies big time talent from big time programs and these kids get rightfully ranked. Is it very possible to sign damn good players that are off the beaten path that are badly misranked? Absolutely

[dawgs]

The answer is both... Alabama is recruiting the most talented players and developing them. As you said they get to hand pick their talent because everyone wants to be there. The trick is Alabama aint going to East Webster to look at Johnthan Banks even though hes just as good athletically as whatever 5 star they signed that year. They dont have to go to East Webster to get him. So when Mississippi State goes to East Webster and get him he A) doesnt have the big offers because those schools arnt going to recruit his school B) He doesnt play in the Marquee South Panola/ Starkville games C)Website writers are for the most part lazy and just go along with group think. Its a hell of a lot easier to say ok this kid out of East Webster is a good looking kid and State offered. Hes a three star. Then it is to actually put in hours of film and God forbid go to Mathiston and watch a game. There are other factors.... Alabama isnt gonna try to project what Benardrick McKinney will become after he stops playing high school quarterback and gets in a real strength program. Hes gonna be a first round pick but so was CJ Mosley who is the same age with alot less questions. So do stars matter? Yes. Because Alabama identifies big time talent from big time programs and these kids get rightfully ranked. Is it very possible to sign damn good players that are off the beaten path that are badly misranked? Absolutely

But even though we find guys like banks and McKinney, our overall talent level just isn't on par with bama's. Bama may miss a few diamonds in the rough, but they can afford to signing 20 4-5* recruits every cycle, and the odds are much higher their 4-5* pans out than our diamonds in the rough. If a kid has NFL talent, he's gonna get found my some P5 program. It's 2015, not 1950, even a kid at the smallest high school in the state can do to a camp or 2 and post his highlights online. We can all point out exceptions, but that doesn't disprove the rule that the more stars you recruit the better chance you have of being elite.

[dawgpound]

the days of the hidden prospects will soon be in the past. It isnt hard for a kid even if he is from a tiny high school to go to a camp and be seen. With the money these recruiting services and websites are bringing in, these stories will be a thing of the past. There will still be kids who need to develop though which is where some of the NFL 3 stars will come in.

[maroonmania]

The answer is both... Alabama is recruiting the most talented players and developing them. As you said they get to hand pick their talent because everyone wants to be there. The trick is Alabama aint going to East Webster to look at Johnthan Banks even though hes just as good athletically as whatever 5 star they signed that year. They dont have to go to East Webster to get him. So when Mississippi State goes to East Webster and get him he A) doesnt have the big offers because those schools arnt going to recruit his school B) He doesnt play in the Marquee South Panola/ Starkville games C)Website writers are for the most part lazy and just go along with group think. Its a hell of a lot easier to say ok this kid out of East Webster is a good looking kid and State offered. Hes a three star. Then it is to actually put in hours of film and God forbid go to Mathiston and watch a game. There are other factors.... Alabama isnt gonna try to project what Benardrick McKinney will become after he stops playing high school quarterback and gets in a real strength program. Hes gonna be a first round pick but so was CJ Mosley who is the same age with alot less questions. So do stars matter? Yes. Because Alabama identifies big time talent from big time programs and these kids get rightfully ranked. Is it very possible to sign damn good players that are off the beaten path that are badly misranked? Absolutely

That's the whole deal. We are getting guys that athletically may have the same ceiling as a lot of the guys that Bama is signing. The difference is that what Bama is signing is much more polished coming into college so they contribute more quickly which aids greatly in depth. They aren't waiting for a guy to be a Redshirt JR before they may get recognition as an all-conference type player. Our Jrs and Srs can play with Alabama's Jrs and Srs but our underclassmen generally can't because they need more time to develop. Also another reason why you can't use the star system when talking about pro ball. The star rating system was initially set up to determine at what stage of a player's career would they be able to significantly contribute in college. Didn't specifically mean they could or could not eventually be pro caliber players.

[thedawg]

That's the whole deal. We are getting guys that athletically may have the same ceiling as a lot of the guys that Bama is signing. The difference is that what Bama is signing is much more polished coming into college so they contribute more quickly which aids greatly in depth. They aren't waiting for a guy to be a Redshirt JR before they may get recognition as an all-conference type player. Our Jrs and Srs can play with Alabama's Jrs and Srs but our underclassmen generally can't because they need more time to develop. Also another reason why you can't use the star system when talking about pro ball. The star rating system was initially set up to determine at what stage of a player's career would they be able to significantly contribute in college. Didn't specifically mean they could or could not eventually be pro caliber players.

Totally agree with this... McKinney redshirted and hes a probable first round pick

[CadaverDawg]

By SEC play next year, while not likely, we COULD be starting the following defense...

Peters 4*
Bryant 4*
Redmond 4*
Calhoun 3*
B Brown 4*
Ri Brown 4*
G Green 4*
Ry Brown 3*
C Jones 5*
N James 4*
AJ Jefferson 4*

I might be wrong on a few of those depending on which recruiting site you look at, but those are pretty accurate. That type of talent can compete with anyone in the country. If we can get all of our units to look like that, we will be in business. And we had ZERO Top 10 classes to achieve that roster.

I also understand that guys like Peters and Bryant may not start this year....I'm just saying we have the potential to throw a lineup of NINE 4-5*'s on defense alone! And if a few of those won't be starting, what does that say about our depth and development?

Then you have...

Dak Heisman candidate
Shumpert/Williams both 4*
Wilson 3*
Ross 4*
Gray 4*

OL - Rankin 5*
and a bunch of 3*'s

So obviously you want to continue developing and finding these diamonds in the rough....but you also want to have a few top recruits each year that you can use to anchor those units with pure talent. For instance, I love Taveze Calhoun, but if the game is on the line, I want my 4* Will Redmond on the opponents #1 receiver. If I need a big catch at the end of the game, I am throwing the ball to Fred Ross over everybody, including DeRunnya, because Ross just has pure talent and athleticism and can out-talent his opponent. I think higher front end talent is important when you're talking about needing that one big play, or that one big push from a OL to get 1 big yard to win a Title, etc... If you can avoid close games, you can win a lot with developmental talent. But if you want to beat Alabama at Alabama with an SEC Title on the line, and you need one yard on 4th down to do it....you better hope that you have Gabe Jackson to run behind into that front, instead of a walk-on with a mean streak. That's all i'm saying.

And that's not ALWAYS the case. You also have freak cases like Benardrick McKinney. He is a 5* level talent by the time he graduates college, but was probably accurately graded as a 2 or 3* coming out of highschool. The fact that he is where he is, is a testament to our coaches and his willingness to work for it.

[dawgs]

That's the whole deal. We are getting guys that athletically may have the same ceiling as a lot of the guys that Bama is signing. The difference is that what Bama is signing is much more polished coming into college so they contribute more quickly which aids greatly in depth. They aren't waiting for a guy to be a Redshirt JR before they may get recognition as an all-conference type player. Our Jrs and Srs can play with Alabama's Jrs and Srs but our underclassmen generally can't because they need more time to develop. Also another reason why you can't use the star system when talking about pro ball. The star rating system was initially set up to determine at what stage of a player's career would they be able to significantly contribute in college. Didn't specifically mean they could or could not eventually be pro caliber players.

Thing is, while our guys may have that similar cieling, the path from a raw HS prospect to quality sec starter is filled with potholes. There's a lot of factors that could prevent that player from reaching his full potential. However, when you bring in a more polished guy, there are far fewer potholes on his path to becoming a quality sec starter and maxing out his potential because the path to travel is much shorter. That's why the success rate of 5* is highest and then you work your way down from there.

That's also why when we have a 4-5* that busts, it's a huge deal, but when Bama has a 4-5* bust, it's not. We are scrambling to replace them with an unprepared 3* or a guy that has a lower ceiling, whereas Bama processes the kid out of the program and moves on to the next 4-5* in the pecking order, who is more likely to step up and play at a high caliber than our in development 3* or lower ceiling guy.

[K9 Avenger]

Neither team playing in next week?s Super Bowl has a player that was rated five stars coming out of high school, according to this study from SB Nation.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/1/21/7861989/super-bowl-2015-patriots-seahawks-high-school-recruiting-ratings This is the rest of the article...interesting