Nats

[msstate7]

5:02 PM
Scherzer Talking Seven-Year Deal With Nats, 1 Other
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/?p=46136

Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi
#Nats have been talking with "multiple" teams on Jordan Zimmermann trade possibilities over past few weeks, sources say.

What you think, dawgs?

[msstate7]

Grant McAuley ?@grantmcauley 16m16 minutes ago
Wow... MT @jonmorosi: #Nats prepared to trade SP if they sign Scherzer. Zimmermann most likely but 1 source says they'd listen on Strasburg.

[dawgs]

Interesting stuff. Nats front office is pretty tight with boras, and so I wonder how much the upcoming free agency of strasburg and harper factors into discussions likely not explicitly but subconsciously. I'd be fine dealing Zimmermann, he's a great pitcher, but he is what he is and he doesn't have the knockout stuff of strasburg or scherzer. Also, I'd prefer the nats not to be invested in long term deals for 2 top of the line starters, both with TJ surgery in their pasts.

Unless the deal is off the charts, I can't imagine them dealing strasburg.

Nats could always sit on all of them for now and deal Zimmermann at the deadline if a good deal presents itself.

[shoeless joe]

Between Zimmerman and strausburg I'd take zim all day.

[Todd4State]

That "other" team is the Cardinals. They want Scherzer for five years. That's the hang up.

[msstate7]

Between Zimmerman and strausburg I'd take zim all day.

As a Braves' fan, I'd certainly rather the nats keep stras than zim

[ShotgunDawg]

7 years of Scherzer is a long time. In comparison, both Scherzer and Jon Lester are the same age, but Jon Lester only got 6 year and 25.8 Mil per year from the Cubs.

I believe Scherzer is slightly better than Lester and that should get him more money per year, but I don't see the logic behind the 7th year, unless you just want him and are willing to outbid everyone else.

[dawgs]

7 years of Scherzer is a long time. In comparison, both Scherzer and Jon Lester are the same age, but Jon Lester only got 6 year and 25.8 Mil per year from the Cubs.

I believe Scherzer is slightly better than Lester and that should get him more money per year, but I don't see the logic behind the 7th year, unless you just want him and are willing to outbid everyone else.

Lester has a lot more miles on him than scherzer though (over 350 more IP, so almost 2 years more).

[msstate7]

Lester has a lot more miles on him than scherzer though (over 350 more IP, so almost 2 years more).

31 years old and getting 7 years. I think he'll be really good for a few years, but he'll be a major liability before the contract is up (think Phillies). I think the nats are just going all in and the hell with 4-5 years from now

[dawgs]

As a Braves' fan, I'd certainly rather the nats keep stras than zim

Y'all have lost y'all's minds. Strasburg's ceiling is much higher. Injury risk is similar imo (both with TJ history). In a hypothetical world, if the Braves could take either Zimmermann or strasburg tomorrow, y'all would rather have Zimmermann?

[ShotgunDawg]

Lester has a lot more miles on him than scherzer though (over 350 more IP, so almost 2 years more).

I get that. Just not sure if it's a justification for a 7th year. Plus, what they'll pay Scherzer, will likely cost them Zimmerman, who Scherzer will replace, but also Desmond. Tre Turner it talented, but I'm not ready to say that he will ever hit for enough power to be an adequate replacement for Desmond.

[msstate7]

Y'all have lost y'all's minds. Strasburg's ceiling is much higher. Injury risk is similar imo (both with TJ history). In a hypothetical world, if the Braves could take either Zimmermann or strasburg tomorrow, y'all would rather have Zimmermann?

Yeah. Of course, I absolutely detest stras though

[dawgs]

31 years old and getting 7 years. I think he'll be really good for a few years, but he'll be a major liability before the contract is up (think Phillies). I think the nats are just going all in and the hell with 4-5 years from now

I wasn't necessarily saying to give scherzer 7 years, but if lester got 6 years that might be the market value for a little better pitcher with less IP at the same age. So when asking why give him more years than scherzer, I'm just pointing out one of the reasons he might be able to demand another year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Y'all have lost y'all's minds. Strasburg's ceiling is much higher. Injury risk is similar imo (both with TJ history). In a hypothetical world, if the Braves could take either Zimmermann or strasburg tomorrow, y'all would rather have Zimmermann?

Zimmermann has had much higher WARS than Strasburg. However, that being said, IMO Zimmermann is more consistent and gives you a better chance of making the playoffs, and Strasburg has a higher ceiling that gives you a better chance of winning in the playoffs and winning the World Series.

Strasburg is better on his best day, but you could make an argument for either. Strasburg is the rarer talent and would make more on the open market.

[dawgs]

I get that. Just not sure if it's a justification for a 7th year. Plus, what they'll pay Scherzer, will likely cost them Zimmerman, who Scherzer will replace, but also Desmond. Tre Turner it talented, but I'm not ready to say that he will ever hit for enough power to be an adequate replacement for Desmond.

We'll if they didn't get scherzer, they'd likely be choosing either zimm or desmond, so you can't say scherzer would cost them both, when one of them is likely gone regardless.

[msstate7]

@AdamKilgoreWP
Per a source, Max Scherzer to the Nats is "very close." Not finished yet.

[ShotgunDawg]

I wasn't necessarily saying to give scherzer 7 years, but if lester got 6 years that might be the market value for a little better pitcher with less IP at the same age. So when asking why give him more years than scherzer, I'm just pointing out one of the reasons he might be able to demand another year.

Personally, I don't think 7 years is the market value. I think the 7th year was the extra that the Nats may offer to get the deal done. Lester got 6 years at 25.8 per year at the same age. Therefore, I think most teams were offering 6 years, and bumping up the annual value to around 28 mil per year, to give Scherzer credit for being slightly better than Lester, but not as good as Kershaw. I think the 7th year is above market value and the reason the Nats may get him. The question is if he's worth it? Long term pitcher contracts almost exclusively don't work out, but if you win a World Series or 2 in that time period, who cares?

[dawgs]

Zimmermann has had much higher WARS than Strasburg. However, that being said, IMO Zimmermann is more consistent and gives you a better chance of making the playoffs, and Strasburg has a higher ceiling that gives you a better chance of winning in the playoffs and winning the World Series.

Strasburg is better on his best day, but you could make an argument for either. Strasburg is the rarer talent and would make more on the open market.

Stras has a much higher FIP/xFIP and with his K rate is less dependent on the defense. A lot of stras' inconsistency early last year was bad luck. Anyone that watched him saw it was a flukey BABIP on bloopers and weak grounders. His overall era ended up at 3.14 despite that. When in doubt I'll take the guy with the raw skills that's had some bad luck over the guy with good not great raw skills who has had a little more luck on babip and stuff.

[ShotgunDawg]

Stras has a much higher FIP/xFIP and with his K rate is less dependent on the defense. A lot of stras' inconsistency early last year was bad luck. Anyone that watched him saw it was a flukey BABIP on bloopers and weak grounders. His overall era ended up at 3.14 despite that. When in doubt I'll take the guy with the raw skills that's had some bad luck over the guy with good not great raw skills who has had a little more luck on babip and stuff.

Your splitting hairs with the sabremetric stats, while also ignoring that Zimmermann has been legit far before last season. Zimmermann also had a BABIP over .300 last season, and has shown a great history of putting up low BABIPS.

However, I do agree with you, if things are close, you always take the guy with the better tools. Lastly, I don't love Strasburg's delivery, and my guess is that he'll pop again in the next few years.

[dawgs]

Your splitting hairs with the sabremetric stats, while also ignoring that Zimmermann has been legit far before last season. Zimmermann also had a BABIP over .300 last season, and has shown a great history of putting up low BABIPS.

However, I do agree with you, if things are close, you always take the guy with the better tools. Lastly, I don't love Strasburg's delivery, and my guess is that he'll pop again in the next few years.

I meant much lower. But stras has also been great his whole career so not sure why that point is relevant. I'm not ignoring what zimmerman's done, he's great, he's just not as great as stras imo.

[msstate7]

Chipper Jones ?@RealCJ10
Funny how every time a Scott Boras client is close to signing, there appears a 'mystery team'! I'd call his bluff and offer 20 mil less.

[shoeless joe]

Y'all have lost y'all's minds. Strasburg's ceiling is much higher. Injury risk is similar imo (both with TJ history). In a hypothetical world, if the Braves could take either Zimmermann or strasburg tomorrow, y'all would rather have Zimmermann?

Yes...

[dawgs]

Chipper Jones ?@RealCJ10
Funny how every time a Scott Boras client is close to signing, there appears a 'mystery team'! I'd call his bluff and offer 20 mil less.

I'm sure GMs that consistently make good trades and signings are well versed in the games agents play.

[dawgs]

Yes...

Outside of being scared of another injury, there is literally no other reason to take Zimmermann. And as I said, Zimmermann had TJ surgery too.

[msstate7]

Outside of being scared of another injury, there is literally no other reason to take Zimmermann. And as I said, Zimmermann had TJ surgery too.

Except for similar results and Zimmermann is a class act while strasburg is a punk

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm sure GMs that consistently make good trades and signings are well versed in the games agents play.

Of course, the question, however, is if giving Max Scherzer a 7th year is a "good signing". Long term pitcher contracts almost exclusively don't work out.

If I were a GM, instead of giving Scherzer 7 years and 28/year, I'd rather give him 30+ mil per year for 4 or 5 years. It has a much better chance of working out well for your franchise long term, and the player may actually produce that much in the short term.

[dawgs]

Except for similar results and Zimmermann is a class act while strasburg is a punk

Link to strasburg acting like a punk, or else you are talking out of your ass. As someone that's watched strasburg pitch more than anyone else in here, I'm betting you are talking out your ass.

[Todd4State]

Of course, the question, however, is if giving Max Scherzer a 7th year is a "good signing". Long term pitcher contracts almost exclusively don't work out.

If I were a GM, instead of giving Scherzer 7 years and 28/year, I'd rather give him 30+ mil per year for 4 or 5 years. It has a much better chance of working out well for your franchise long term, and the player may actually produce that much in the short term. I would give him five and then a club option or two. They would probably settle for that.

[Todd4State]

Chipper Jones ?@RealCJ10
Funny how every time a Scott Boras client is close to signing, there appears a 'mystery team'! I'd call his bluff and offer 20 mil less. Chipper nailed it. Lol.

[dawgs]

Of course, the question, however, is if giving Max Scherzer a 7th year is a "good signing". Long term pitcher contracts almost exclusively don't work out.

If I were a GM, instead of giving Scherzer 7 years and 28/year, I'd rather give him 30+ mil per year for 4 or 5 years. It has a much better chance of working out well for your franchise long term, and the player may actually produce that much in the short term.

Signing a pitcher until age 37-38 is much much better than signing a bat until he's 40 in modern MLB. Scherzer might not be at his best throughout the life of the deal, but if he can learn to pitch without K'ing 10+ guys per 9IP as he ages, no reason he couldn't be a Roy Halliday or Hudson type in the last 3 or so years of that deal.

[Todd4State]

It sounds like the deal is done. Scherzer to the Nats.

[msstate7]

11:24 AM
@TylerKepner
Had hunch Scherzer would try for record contract for RHP. He got it from Nationals, and deal sounds like $200M+, with significant deferrals.

[msstate7]

Max Scherzer?s deal with the Washington Nationals is reportedly for 7 years, $210M with half of it deferred?that?s $15M for 14 years.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2263570-max-scherzer-to-nationals-latest-contract-details-comments-reaction

Weird contract

[Dawg61]

Max Scherzer?s deal with the Washington Nationals is reportedly for 7 years, $210M with half of it deferred?that?s $15M for 14 years.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2263570-max-scherzer-to-nationals-latest-contract-details-comments-reaction

Weird contract

What? They gave him a Bobby Bonilla contract. Hahahaha STUPID!!!

[BoomBoom]

Of course, the question, however, is if giving Max Scherzer a 7th year is a "good signing". Long term pitcher contracts almost exclusively don't work out.

If I were a GM, instead of giving Scherzer 7 years and 28/year, I'd rather give him 30+ mil per year for 4 or 5 years. It has a much better chance of working out well for your franchise long term, and the player may actually produce that much in the short term.

As a GM, if they don't win a WS he's probably fired, so who cares if the next GM is saddled with a Bobby B contract?

[msstate7]

Adding scherzer and trading stras or zim is negligible imorovement at best imo. This trade equals buying prospects they get from stras/zim trade to me

[dawgs]

As a GM, if they don't win a WS he's probably fired, so who cares if the next GM is saddled with a Bobby B contract?

Nats are probably planning on TV revenue only going up, and they already have deep pockets. The deal still gives them a little more immediate flexibility with the high likelihood their revenues will go up enough in the next 14 years to make the deferred payments without missing a beat. It's like interest free financing for the nats.

[ShotgunDawg]

David Cameron @DCameronFG ? 21h 21 hours ago
So basically the Lerners are borrowing Max Scherzer from whoever they sell the Nationals to in the next 10 years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/max-scherzer-and-when-210-million-isnt-210-million/

[dawgs]

David Cameron @DCameronFG ? 21h 21 hours ago
So basically the Lerners are borrowing Max Scherzer from whoever they sell the Nationals to in the next 10 years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/max-scherzer-and-when-210-million-isnt-210-million/

There's no information indicating the lerners want to sell the team. But this is a great breakdown of actually value in 2014 terms, and the deal isn't as mindblowing as the raw numbers immediately suggest.