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View Full Version : Probabilities of Us Winning the CWS


LiterallyPolice
06-20-2013, 03:30 PM
Since all the other minutia has been discussed related to our run in the CWS, I decided to crunch some numbers in hopes of figuring out what are our ballpark odds are going forward.

If you remember, we started the tournament with Vegas odds of 10-to-1. That's a 9% chance of winning it all.

Obviously, we've improved our chances considerably since then. If you assume we have a 50% chance of winning each game we play going forward, our probability of winning the national championship is 38%. Not bad.

Personally, I think 50% chance in each game is low. We've already beaten OSU, for example, and UCLA doesn't look particularly scary. Assuming we have a 60% chance of winning each game going foward, our probability of winning the NC is 50%. A coin flip.

Either way - on paper I think we are the favorites.

I know, I know, games aren't played on spreadsheets. But as a battered MSU fan it's good to know that objectively we have a great chance.
Will James
06-20-2013, 03:52 PM
38%
Political Hack
06-20-2013, 03:56 PM
The odds of Oregon State even making the NCG is 38%, no?

So, we're a 62% favorite to make the game, and then a 50% chance of winning it, at worst, right?
LiterallyPolice
06-20-2013, 03:59 PM
The odds of Oregon State even making the NCG is 38%, no?

So, we're a 62% favorite to make the game, and then a 50% chance of winning it, at worst, right?

Assuming us and Oregon State are equally matched, they have only a 25% chance of advancing to the championship series. We have a 75% chance.

The 38% chance in my original post is this 75% multiplied by 50% (the assumed chances against our opponent, whomever it should be)
LiterallyPolice
06-20-2013, 04:02 PM
38%

Uh... ok.
Will James
06-20-2013, 04:13 PM
I give us a 50% to win it all once we make the CWS. We don't have a 100% chance of making the finals so there is no way of us having a 50% chance of winning it all. So taking into account the fact that we may lose to OSU twice I say we have a 38% shot of winning it all.
LiterallyPolice
06-20-2013, 04:17 PM
I give us a 50% to win it all once we make the CWS. We don't have a 100% chance of making the finals so there is no way of us having a 50% chance of winning it all. So taking into account the fact that we may lose to OSU twice I say we have a 38% shot of winning it all.

Yes, that's exactly how I arrived at the 38% in the original post. 75% chance of making the final series. 50% chance at that point.
75% * 50% = 38%.
Will James
06-20-2013, 04:33 PM
Yes, that's exactly how I arrived at the 38% in the original post. 75% chance of making the final series. 50% chance at that point.
75% * 50% = 38%.

Oh shit I didnt even read your post I just replied and came up with 38 in my head.
Hump4Hoops
06-20-2013, 05:54 PM
Oh shit I didnt even read your post I just replied and came up with 38 in my head.

No use covering your tracks now, robot.
Political Hack
06-20-2013, 11:24 PM
Assuming us and Oregon State are equally matched, they have only a 25% chance of advancing to the championship series. We have a 75% chance.

The 38% chance in my original post is this 75% multiplied by 50% (the assumed chances against our opponent, whomever it should be)

ok, then we're a 75% chance of making it and a 50% chance of winning it. I'll take those odds.