Phil Steele

[FlabLoser]

Why does anyone give that guy any credibility?

Last year, most stuff he predicted was garbage. He had FSU #1. FSU?

Look, I get that predictions are just that - predictions. But this guy had no rational justification for picking FSU #1 or or saying half the other things he said.

My take on Steele is that he's jumped the shark and he now publishes for maximum sales. Gotta give the ACC some love once in a while to sell magazines.

[Sandman14]

I disagree. Lately I too have noticed his predictions are a little off, but the fact is that he is VERY systematic in his predictions. He uses data heavily. His data from his magazines is probably the best you can find, and his top 25 traditionally is better than most folks's on a year-to-year basis.

The last two years I agree have looked a little funny.

But don't forget that if FSU doesn't blow that NC State game, which was truly a crap-the-bed game in which they led double digits at half, then they would have been undefeated going into the Florida game. They lost that game but finished with wins in teh ACC title game and bowl. point being that FSU was not that far off from playing in the title game.

[msstate7]

I disagree. Lately I too have noticed his predictions are a little off, but the fact is that he is VERY systematic in his predictions. He uses data heavily. His data from his magazines is probably the best you can find, and his top 25 traditionally is better than most folks's on a year-to-year basis.

The last two years I agree have looked a little funny.

But don't forget that if FSU doesn't blow that NC State game, which was truly a crap-the-bed game in which they led double digits at half, then they would have been undefeated going into the Florida game. They lost that game but finished with wins in teh ACC title game and bowl. point being that FSU was not that far off from playing in the title game.

Neither were aTm, Georgia, Stanford, etc.

[Will James]

WJ predicted a UGA national champion in 2012. So close.

I will predict UGA again. Steele doesn't have them in his "fits National Champion Mold" but does have LSU, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt. Yeah I'd say he's a little off.

[msstate7]

WJ predicted a UGA national champion in 2012. So close.

I will predict UGA again. Steele doesn't have them in his "fits National Champion Mold" but does have LSU, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt. Yeah I'd say he's a little off.

If Vandy wins nat title, franklin is the best coach ever.

[The Croom Diaries]

It's funny that Will thinks he's off because Steele does the same thing - relies solely on computer data rather than any gut feeling. He literally enters in all the data into formulas he has created and lets the computer simulate the season to determine his predictions.

I am a huge fan of his magazine because of all the info. It is far and away the best preview mag available. I listen to him every Friday morning on XM, he knows pretty much everything about every single team. He's an encyclopedia. But he's not a talent evaluator and that much he admits, he relies on other people's evaluations of recruits and then bases how he thinks experienced players will do on trends. All he's trying to do is get an edge in predicting the top 25.

To me, he's not so much about the prediction and player evaluations as much as the info and other creative stuff he comes up with. But like sabermetrics, you have to take it for what it's worth. It's good but not the end all be all. His magazine came out today, I recommend the purchase and it is something I keep on the table next to my recliner until Christmas.

[Goat Holder]

He looks too much at numbers and what happened last year. I know those are the only real facts, but he has to put a little more reality into a situation. I always say that numbers don't lie but they don't tell the whole truth. You absolutely have to look at historical trends, how different games set up, maturity of a team, WHICH players at certain positions are coming back, etc. You have to project momentum as well. A new team to the party most likely isn't going to win the national title, such as FSU last year.

[Sandman14]

Neither were aTm, Georgia, Stanford, etc.

yeah so anyone predicting these teams would not appear foolish.

[The Croom Diaries]

He looks too much at numbers and what happened last year. I know those are the only real facts, but he has to put a little more reality into a situation. I always say that numbers don't lie but they don't tell the whole truth. You absolutely have to look at historical trends, how different games set up, maturity of a team, WHICH players at certain positions are coming back, etc. You have to project momentum as well. A new team to the party most likely isn't going to win the national title, such as FSU last year.

You have clearly never read his magazine because he takes all those factors into consideration. It's the others like Athlon and Lindy's who rely heavily on what happened last year.

[TexasDawg]

I think preseason rankings and projections are complete bullshit. In my mind teams shouldn't be ranked until halfway through the season when they have actually started to prove something on the field.

[msstate7]

yeah so anyone predicting these teams would not appear foolish.

Point taken

[HancockCountyDog]

I think once we beat the shit out of Oklahoma State I have a feeling the predictions of us winning 5-6 games will look just silly.