Nate Silver say we should root for Alabama.

[dickiedawg]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-every-college-football-playoff-contender/

His model shows we have a 77 percent chance of making the 4 with a win and Alabama win, but only 65% chance with a win and Alabama loss (due, of course, to the possibility of losing the champ game).

I post this not to bring up the same old debate, but mostly because it says we're 3 to 1 to make it with a win. Also he says OSU basically has no chance unless teams above it lose.
Overall, the article says we're in great shape to make the 4 with a win, and all you negative Nellies should just relax.

(His Model also gives us a 41 percent chance to win the Egg Bowl, leading to a low probability overall)

[afranzo]

That is an interesting argument....

BUT I would much rather have our fate completely in our hands... go to the SEC Champ. and kick ass .... and then be a 100% lock a #2 or #3 seed in New Orleans against Mr. crab legs... (assuming they win out, which I think is a coin toss anyways --- then maybe we get an Ohio State in New Orleans?)

Let's first win our game strong against Hobby Lobby... then I will be war damn eagle for the following 3 hours...

[Miss. Stake]

F his stats. I want to control our own destiny.

[msstate7]

He doesn't know anymore than Kirk, galloway, or Danny k.

The 41% chance of winning tells me he's putting too much stock in a computer that doesn't factor in injuries

[AlmostPositive]

I'd feel better about this if Nate Silver hadn't shat all over himself in the run up to the recent election. Besides that, i doubt if he knows the committee's process and mindset any better than the next person.

[TrapGame]

I'd feel better about this if Nate Silver hadn't shat all over himself in the run up to the recent election. Besides that, i doubt if he knows the committee's process and mindset any better than the next person.

This. Silver made an ass of himself complaining about Hispanic samples going heavy GOP in the Colorado senate and Texas gubernatorial races. The final election totals had those Hispanic numbers on the dot.

[Quaoarsking]

He doesn't know anymore than Kirk, galloway, or Danny k.

The 41% chance of winning tells me he's putting too much stock in a computer that doesn't factor in injuries

He's just using the FPI rather than calculating his own odds, which hasn't been very kind to us lately because of all the 1A/1B.

I am surprised that he thinks Alabama is almost 50-50 to still make if they lose Saturday, but I think a lot of that is based on the assumption that he thinks Alabama is likely to play in the SEC Championship anyway (because the FPI thinks we'll lose) and he thinks a 2-loss SEC Champion Bama still makes it. Also, if Alabama loses a close one to Auburn, Alabama probably doesn't fall any further than 7th or so, so even if they didn't play in the SECCG, it's not that far-fetched that enough teams could lose. Still, 50-50 seems awfully high.

[cheewgumm]

The 41% to win this game makes
Me not believe much after that.

I think we're gonna win easily. Under normal circumstances, no. However they
Have some key injuries and they generally don't nath up well against us.