Shotgun's thoughts on Playoff Rankings: Why is Ohio State 6th and not 5th? Hmmmm

[ShotgunDawg]

http://meetville.com/images/quotes/Quotation-William-Shakespeare-life-despair-Meetville-Quotes-118292.jpg

Yes, all the talk, all the politicking, and all the biases are full of sound and fury but signify nothing. ALL THAT MATTERS IS THE COMMITTEE'S ACTIONS!! Just keep in mind: The analysts are really really picking on MSU right now, but it's not personal. It's all in an effort to keep the SEC from having 2 teams in the playoff. That's it. MSU is still 4th in every major poll and would be 4th, with little chance of falling out of 4th, in the BCS. We belong where we are.

Yes, I am bias towards MSU, but I believe tonight was a good night for the Dawgs. While Jeff Long did say, "MSU has a strong hold on the 4th spot." I think it is more important to look at the committee's actions, not their words. I believe the actions speak much louder here.

With this mind, here are my thoughts:

1. I believe the committee LOVES MSU. They really really love us, and they love us so much that Jeff Long brings up new criteria, points of emphasis, and new ways of judging teams each week in order answer all the questions about why were are 4th. Like I said last week, I think the committee is using common sense now, and it knows who the 4 best teams are. Everyone keeps making a big deal out of resume, top 25 wins, etc, but I don't believe any of that shit matters at this point. They know who the 4 best teams are, and they have shown that they are willing to justify them in numerous ways. This isn't the BCS. There is no set formula that doesn't change. The fact that the formula keeps changing shows me that they know who MSU is and are giving us credit for that. They understand what the SEC West is, and, while they can't rank all the SEC West teams due to record, they realize that the records are what they are because there is parity in a division full of the best teams in college football. Stop talking about resume, they are going to put who they want in there and then find a way to justify it. The ends will justify the means, not the means will justify the ends.

2. Due to my belief that the committee is putting teams where they want and changes the weight of certain criteria in order to fit their agenda, why is Ohio State 6th and not 5th? If the committee really liked Ohio State and thought they were deserving of a playoff spot, they could easily weight certain criteria in a way that would justify them ranking OSU 5th. The rankings were the same this week as they were last week, but I am more interested in what they didn't do than what the did do. Currently, TCU is 9-1 and Ohio State is 10-1. Ohio State has played and won 1 more game than TCU, but TCU is still ranked ahead. Is it possible that the committee is creating a buffer between Ohio State and MSU so that, if Ohio State wins the Big 1G, the committee can jump them to 5 and say that the conference championship mattered? No one knows for sure, but I am intrigued by Ohio State being 6th and not 5th. I don't think the committee could justify or would jump OSU over two teams just because they won a crappy conference's championship. The committee had every opportunity to jump Ohio State tonight, and didn't. Ohio State won and TCU didn't play. Ohio State has 1 more win than TCU does currently. I find this very interesting and wonder if the committee is setting Ohio State up to be left out, should no one lose.

3. Again, due to the need for suspense on the TV show, we aren't jumping FSU. Everyone knows FSU is in the playoff if they win out, so by jumping MSU over them, you would essentially being telling everyone that the final 4 is set, unless someone loses. That's bad for rating and interest

4. If we win out, I think we are good. The analysts will give you every reason to believe we aren't, but if you look at the committee and only the committee's actions, I think we are in good shape. That being said, we can't win the Egg Bowl on a fluke. We don't have to blow Ole Miss out or anything like that (That's what the analysts want you to believe), but we do need to "control" the game.

At the end of the day, if you remove all the sound and fury that signifies nothing, and only look at facts and the actions by the committee, I simply don't see any evidence of a screw job brewing.

If you do believe that the actions by the committee indicate that a screw job may be brewing, I am all ears to hear your thoughts. I just don't see it.

Your thoughts?

[blacklistedbully]

You keep discounting the fact that, in the final analysis conference championships will be considered. They haven't impacted the rankings to date simply because they aren't determined yet. But they WILL factor in.

What will also factor in over the next 2 weeks is remaining games and who they are against. We do not exist in a vacuum, and #4. #5, #7 & beyond will be reassessed each week, and ranked according to their overall resume. If they add more to theirs than we do to ours, we could ABSOLUTELY be left out, given that Jeff Long has also said 4-7 are razor-thin close today.

A narrow win over TSUN, short of other contenders losing would likely be a DISASTER for us. Even a big win leaves us at the mercy of committee members who are on record as saying CC's will count, and that overall resumes are reevaluated on a week-to-week basis.

[GTHOM]

I think the committee is gonna go with the 4 that they have now until somebody loses, they say they have a ''clean slate'' every week leads me to believe that. I dont think they love any team over the other, they are going to put the 4 with the best bodies of work in. not because ohio state plays the sisters of the poor and loss to va tech at home but all of a sudden jump them over us if they beat Wisconsin or minnesota in the big 10 title game. if we beat ole miss, like we should we will be in

[ShotgunDawg]

You keep discounting the fact that, in the final analysis conference championships will be considered. They haven't impacted the rankings to date simply because they aren't determined yet. But they WILL factor in.

What will also factor in over the next 2 weeks is remaining games and who they are against. We do not exist in a vacuum, and #4. #5, #, #7 & beyond will be reassessed each week, and ranked according to their overall resume. If they add more to theirs than we do to ours, we could ABSOLUTELY be left out, given that Jeff Long has also said 4-7 are razor-thin close today.

A narrow win over TSUN, short of other contenders losing would likely be a DISASTER for us. Even a big win leaves us at the mercy of committee members who are on record as saying CC's will count, and that overall resumes are reevaluated on a week-to-week basis.

1. I am not discounting championships. Ohio State will jump both Baylor and TCU for winning the Big 1G. The committee has that set up. I don't see them jumping Ohio State over 2 teams. IMO, Ohio State would be 5th right now if they planned on doing that.

2. You have no idea how much they will factor in conference championships, neither do it, and neither does anyone else who isn't on the committee.

3. Long actually said tonight that MSU was strongly in the 4th spot. Last week he said it was narrow.

4. This isn't a formula, it is people's opinion. They justify what ever they want. I just think they know who the best teams are going to just find a way to justify it. The formula hasn't been consistent each week, so I think they are just changing the criteria as they go just to make sure the best 4 teams are in.

5. Your right, we don't need a last second victory over Ole Miss, and I agree that what happens this week will effect us. However, I think the committee really like us and wants to keep us in the 4th spot, so long as they can justify it.

[SDDawg]

Conference championships won't factor in for a 2 spot jump. The Big 12 doesn't have a champion. it's whomever the committee ranks the highest. This has set up perfectly for us, and the only way it could be better is if FSU loses. State wins and they're in.

Excellent write-up SD, you've been killing it on the board this week.

[blacklistedbully]

Here's another thing to chew on. What do you think happens if Arky gets curb-stomped by Mizzou, LSU loses to TAMU, UK gets ripped by Louisville and Auburn gets blasted by Bama?

How strong will we look to the committee if we have ZERO wins versus a team in the T-25, or perhaps 1 in the Top 30? Just how far do you think that "quality loss" to Bama would take us if we're being compared to other 1-loss teams with 2-4 wins vs T-25 teams. including at least 1 or 2 in the Top 15?

I, for one think we damn well better beat TSUN convincingly, and should hope like hell AU upsets Bama to give us a chance to win the SEC. THAT is our ONLY guaranteed path to the playoff. Anything else leaves us vulnerable to the aforementioned committee decisions and/or possibly needing other teams to lose.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think the committee is gonna go with the 4 that they have now until somebody loses, they say they have a ''clean slate'' every week leads me to believe that. I dont think they love any team over the other, they are going to put the 4 with the best bodies of work in. not because ohio state plays the sisters of the poor and loss to va tech at home but all of a sudden jump them over us if they beat Wisconsin or minnesota in the big 10 title game. if we beat ole miss, like we should we will be in

I agree, but I'm not saying they "like us better" in the sense that they are biased towards us. I just believe they genuinely believe MSU is a better team than Ohio State and their actions seem to indicate that as well.

[ShotgunDawg]

Here's another thing to chew on. What do you think happens if Arky gets curb-stomped by Mizzou, LSU loses to TAMU, UK gets ripped by Louisville and Auburn gets blasted by Bama?

How strong will we look to the committee if we have ZERO wins versus a team in the T-25, or perhaps 1 in the Top 30? Just how far do you think that "quality loss" to Bama would take us if we're being compared to other 1-loss teams with 2-4 wins vs T-25 teams. including at least 1 or 2 in the Top 15?

I, for one think we damn well better beat TSUN convincingly, and should hope like hell AU upsets Bama to give us a chance to win the SEC. THAT is our ONLY guaranteed path to the playoff. Anything else leaves us vulnerable to the aforementioned committee decisions and/or possibly needing other teams to lose.

That's your opinion and I have mine. I see nothing wrong with the logic of your opinion, but, like mine, it's unprovable.

I would think Texas A&M would be in the Top 25 if they beat LSU, and I agree that we can't win the Egg Bowl by a fluke.

One thing I think they realize though, is that, due to the parity in the SEC West, there is no bottom to the division. Thus, top 20 caliber teams are losing, which doesn't mean they aren't top 20 caliber, it just means they are playing other top 20 caliber teams. In the Big 1G, the bottom of the conference is awful and therefore, you have teams with a lot of wins and teams with no wins. The bottom of that conference allows there to be more top 25 teams. It's purely math. I think the committee realizes this and that's why Long said what he said tonight about where teams were ranked when MSU played them.

Again, they are going to take who they want and then justify it. IMO, their actions indicate they are taking the best 4 teams, and they believe MSU is part of that.

They say they don't talk about the future, but I believe that's BS. They know what they are doing and they decided to rank Ohio State 6th and not 5th, when they could've easily made that move this week.

There is a reason why

[blacklistedbully]

I agree, but I'm not saying they "like us better" in the sense that they are biased towards us. I just believe they genuinely believe MSU is a better team than Ohio State and their actions seem to indicate that as well.

I would not be at all surprised if Ohio State beats the hell outta a crappy Michigan, and Texas upsets TCU. Then you'll be looking at #5 Ohio State, MSU done unless Bama loses, and Ohio State with a game remaining against a highly-ranked Wisconsin, fresh off a win versus #18 Minnesota. Do you really not see a potential threat from a #5 Ohio State if they go into the B10CG versus a #14 or better Wisconsin? I think if that happens Wisconsin would beat them, but it's not unimaginable they could end up routing Wisconsin. What then?

[Floridawg]

Why is Michigan State ranked 10th? No top 25 win and gave up over 45 to Oregon and Ohio State. I know that Ohio State counts this as a quality win, but there is zero quality in it.

[blacklistedbully]

I'll say this, though. I think UF is going to knock FSU out, and if they don't, GT will. If that happens, I do think we're in if we beat TSUN, unless we also go to the SECCG & lose.

[ShotgunDawg]

I would not be at all surprised if Ohio State beats the hell outta a crappy Michigan, and Texas upsets TCU. Then you'll be looking at #5 Ohio State, MSU done unless Bama loses, and Ohio State with a game remaining against a highly-ranked Wisconsin, fresh off a win versus #18 Minnesota. Do you really not see a potential threat from a #5 Ohio State if they go into the B10CG versus a #14 or better Wisconsin? I think if that happens Wisconsin would beat them, but it's not unimaginable they could end up routing Wisconsin. What then?

I absolutely see your point, and you may be right. Sure, anything can happen, but I don't see the committee setting us up for a screw job. At this point in time, I don't believe they are planning on jumping Ohio State over us and that's about all they or anyone else can do at this point in time.

I believe that the committee's actions indicate that they truly believe that MSU is one of the best 4 teams. In a perfect world, my guess is that they are hoping that FSU loses and they can put MSU and Ohio State in the playoff. I don't think they believe that FSU is one of the best 4 teams, but rather they are just an undefeated team.

[SDDawg]

I would not be at all surprised if Ohio State beats the hell outta a crappy Michigan, and Texas upsets TCU. Then you'll be looking at #5 Ohio State, MSU done unless Bama loses, and Ohio State with a game remaining against a highly-ranked Wisconsin, fresh off a win versus #18 Minnesota. Do you really not see a potential threat from a #5 Ohio State if they go into the B10CG versus a #14 or better Wisconsin? I think if that happens Wisconsin would beat them, but it's not unimaginable they could end up routing Wisconsin. What then?

Better root for TCU under your scenario, it's probably the only one that gives Ohio State a shot. Wisky gonna roll on their asses though so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[ShotgunDawg]

Why is Michigan State ranked 10th? No top 25 win and gave up over 45 to Oregon and Ohio State. I know that Ohio State counts this as a quality win, but there is zero quality in it.

It doesn't matter IMO. The committee is ranking, mostly, by wins and losses and Michigan State has to fit in around where they are. The truth is that Ohio State is 6th and not 5th or 4th, so obviously the committee doesn't think to highly of Michigan State. Alabama jumped from 5 to 1 by beating us, and Ohio State can't get any higher than 6 by beating Michigan State.

The committee knows who the best 4 teams are. We all know.

[blacklistedbully]

Better root for TCU under your scenario, it's probably the only one that gives Ohio State a shot. Wisky gonna roll on their asses though so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

Man, I hope so, and think so, but Whisky did lose to LSU & Northwestern. They also struggled in their last game versus Iowa, winning by just 2. Ohio State does look like a better team than unranked Iowa and unranked Northwestern.

[Smitty]

Just a question but how was the committee chosen.. Did each conference commish nominate people, have to approve members, get to veto, etc...

[engie]

it's not unimaginable they could end up routing Wisconsin. What then?

Yes, it prettymuch is. Wisconsin hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points since 2009. They don't get blown out...

[cheewgumm]

That Wisconain game should not
Matter.

[ShotgunDawg]

Here is a quote by Mike Slive on the playoff.

"This is not a tournament. This is trying to figure out who the best teams are and let them play for the national championship.”

Here is the text from the College Football Playoff website
"The selection committee will choose the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors."

I find "other factors" interesting because it means they can do whatever they want to do. I think people are blowing it out of proportion how much the conference championship will make a difference. I believe it could be used to break a tie between two teams that seem to be equally as good and have similar resumes. Us and Ohio State don't have similar resumes to any reasonable person.

[blacklistedbully]

Here is a quote by Mike Slive on the playoff.

"This is not a tournament. This is trying to figure out who the best teams are and let them play for the national championship.”

Here is the text from the College Football Playoff website
"The selection committee will choose the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors."

I find "other factors" interesting because it means they can do whatever they want to do. I think people are blowing it out of proportion how much the conference championship will make a difference. I believe it could be used to break a tie between two teams that seem to be equally as good and have similar resumes. Us and Ohio State don't have similar resumes to any reasonable person.

Not now, but we could be perceived that way in a couple of weeks.

[ShotgunDawg]

Not now, but we could be perceived that way in a couple of weeks.

Correct. To tie this all back together, there is a ton of stuff that could happen, there are no guarantees, and that must be acknowledged, however, tonight was a good night for MSU IMO. After this weekend, we will have a better idea.

I would be fairly surprised if we are having this same conversation on Tuesday

[Todd4State]

First of all, Florida State is not going to lose to Florida in Tallahassee.

My thought is they want to keep us at 4 and Bama at 1 so that we will match up and there won't be an all SEC National Championship Game. They may actually feel like we should be higher than we are- which is maybe why they say we are "solid" at four.

The other thought I have is this is more about getting them to expand from four to eight- hence the "conference champion" stuff. The reality is with four teams, at least one of the power five conferences conference champ isn't going to be in the playoff as it stands right now. The Big 10 knows they suck. And they know that as it is, they are the fifth of the big five. Therefore, unless the playoffs expand- they ain't winning a title anytime soon. Herbstreit is pretty much their mouth piece right now. I doubt he even believes half the crap that is coming out of his mouth right now.

[Todd4State]

Just a question but how was the committee chosen.. Did each conference commish nominate people, have to approve members, get to veto, etc...

It's just a bunch of respected football people, athletic directors and Condelezza Rice.

[FlabLoser]

The media hasn't figured out that media paradigms in determining polls are completely irrrelevant. Instead of group think and opinions of journalists, we've got real football minds trying to pick the top 4. The committee is doing a great job. Instead of picking teams with the most wins, championships from last year, best stats, etc., they are simply trying to figure out who the best teams are.

The committee doesn't give a damn who Kirk Herbsreit thinks is passing the eye test. The committee doesn't give a damn that FSU won a championship last year and hasn't been beaten since. Hallelujah!

My only remaining concern is what impact conference championships might have. Fortunately Baylor and TCU won't play in a conference championship.

Hopefully THE Ohio State University is too far behind us to make up ground in a conference championship. And hopefully Wisconsin will make that a moot point.

[ShotgunDawg]

College Football is a tale, told by idiots in the media, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

[Smitty]

It's just a bunch of respected football people, athletic directors and Condelezza Rice.

Exactly but somebody had to choose them.. What was that process, who was in charge.

[ShotgunDawg]

Exactly but somebody had to choose them.. What was that process, who was in charge.

Bill Hancock is the Executive Director of the Playoff Committee and he was hired by Presidential Oversight Committee

Here is an article that acknowledges that

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=8631453

[Dawgface]

All the analysis by us or the talking heads do not matter. Got to let everything play out first. Then we will see how the committee sees it.

[Bully041184]

All I'm going to say and agree with the OP is Shotgun has been killing it with his perspective. I REALLY hope it plays out as you've mentioned it.

[QuadrupleOption]

You keep discounting the fact that, in the final analysis conference championships will be considered. They haven't impacted the rankings to date simply because they aren't determined yet. But they WILL factor in.

What will also factor in over the next 2 weeks is remaining games and who they are against. We do not exist in a vacuum, and #4. #5, #7 & beyond will be reassessed each week, and ranked according to their overall resume. If they add more to theirs than we do to ours, we could ABSOLUTELY be left out, given that Jeff Long has also said 4-7 are razor-thin close today.

A narrow win over TSUN, short of other contenders losing would likely be a DISASTER for us. Even a big win leaves us at the mercy of committee members who are on record as saying CC's will count, and that overall resumes are reevaluated on a week-to-week basis.

If we win this weekend, we will share the divisional title with Alabama.

I'm not saying we need to hang a banner for it, but we will be the co-champions of the toughest division in college football. That's all the excuse the committee needs to rank us 4th.

I refuse to worry about all these doomsday scenarios until we actually get jumped after winning out.

If we lose the Egg Bowl it won't matter anyway.

[Dawg4Life]

One thing I think they realize though, is that, due to the parity in the SEC West, there is no bottom to the division. Thus, top 20 caliber teams are losing, which doesn't mean they aren't top 20 caliber, it just means they are playing other top 20 caliber teams. In the Big 1G, the bottom of the conference is awful and therefore, you have teams with a lot of wins and teams with no wins. The bottom of that conference allows there to be more top 25 teams. It's purely math. I think the committee realizes this and that's why Long said what he said tonight about where teams were ranked when MSU played them.

There is a reason why

This is the point I was trying to make in my post last night. The Top 25 does not represent the "best 25 teams in College Football." If that logic is used, we are toast because of what you pointed out. For example, according to Mike Golic this morning, the Big 10 is now a better conference than the SEC because Wisconsin, OSU, Minnesota, and Michigan State are in the magical TOP 25!! I hope it doesn't matter but it is very, very scary. But Shotgun...good post about the BS of the Top 25.