Our best Playoff path is Bama losing the SECCG.

[AlmostPositive]

If we could be granted one loss among the contenders, Alabama dropping the SEC Championship game would be optimal.

Let 'em win the Iron Bowl and spend a week preparing for Georgia/Missouri.

Unless I'm missing something, that punches our Playoff ticket and we get a week off.

An SEC Championship would be nice, but not at the risk of losing a sure Playoff spot.


Next best would be Oregon dropping a game, because I don't like the idea of dealing with their offense.

We WANT Florida State and Ohio State to be there, because they are not up for what we would be bringing.

[defiantdog]

Wouldn't matter too much. Georgia or Missouri would most likely take the 4 spot with Oregon, FSU, and hopefully us moving up one spot each.

[ScoobaDawg]

Wouldn't matter too much. Georgia or Missouri would most likely take the 4 spot with Oregon, FSU, and hopefully us moving up one spot each.

a 10-2 sec east championship winner will not be the #4 in the playoff.

[DudyDawg]

Wouldn't matter too much. Georgia or Missouri would most likely take the 4 spot with Oregon, FSU, and hopefully us moving up one spot each.

If a two loss georgia or Missouri jumped one loss tcu Baylor and osu to get two sec teams in, there would be riots. That would not happen

[CadaverDawg]

Wouldn't matter too much. Georgia or Missouri would most likely take the 4 spot with Oregon, FSU, and hopefully us moving up one spot each.

Not hapnin

[defiantdog]

We don't really know right now, but the SEC Championship Winner will definitely get looked at by the committee. The committee is subjective so who knows what they would do. (I don't see Missouri or Georgia winning though).

Also, TCU and Baylor don't have a conference championship. I really think the committee looks at that.

[drunkernhelldawg]

i think bama is in even with a loss in seccg. go aub!

[blacklistedbully]

If we could be granted one loss among the contenders, Alabama dropping the SEC Championship game would be optimal.

Let 'em win the Iron Bowl and spend a week preparing for Georgia/Missouri.

Unless I'm missing something, that punches our Playoff ticket and we get a week off.

An SEC Championship would be nice, but not at the risk of losing a sure Playoff spot.


Next best would be Oregon dropping a game, because I don't like the idea of dealing with their offense.

We WANT Florida State and Ohio State to be there, because they are not up for what we would be bringing.

we DO NOT have a "sure playoff spot" if we beat TSUN. We are at the mercy of the committee. Our best shot is for AU to beat Bama, us to win the West, then beat UGA/Mizzo in the SECCG. That is the only sure playoff path, short of other contenders losing.

That said, I do expect FSU to lose, possibly even to both UF & GT.

[AlmostPositive]

[QUOTE=blacklistedbully;293979]we DO NOT have a "sure playoff spot" if we beat TSUN. We are at the mercy of the committee. Our best shot is for AU to beat Bama, us to win the West, then beat UGA/Mizzo in the SECCG. That is the only sure playoff path, short of other contenders losing.

I guess you're allowing for the Committee to put both Ohio State and Baylor/TCU ahead of us if Alabama loses. That will not happen if we win in Oxford. Ohio State maybe jumps us, but not TCU/Baylor. There would be nothing to justify that.

[engie]

We don't really know right now, but the SEC Championship Winner will definitely get looked at by the committee. The committee is subjective so who knows what they would do. (I don't see Missouri or Georgia winning though).

Also, TCU and Baylor don't have a conference championship. I really think the committee looks at that.

The only way that UGA/Mizzou would have a chance in hell is for literally everyone that's currently in contention to drop at least one more game...

[DownwardDawg]

UGA lost to Florida and USCe. Mizzou lost to Indiana. The committee would talk about them for about 30 seconds and move on.

[DownwardDawg]

I was thinking about this too. I would love to be sitting at the 3 or 4 spot and UGA beat Bama in the SECCG. That would be best case scenario for us!

[AlmostPositive]

I was thinking about this too. I would love to be sitting at the 3 or 4 spot and UGA beat Bama in the SECCG. That would be best case scenario for us!

You got it... a week's rest, no Bama, probably a first round game with the Criminoles. Ideal.

[blacklistedbully]

[QUOTE=blacklistedbully;293979]we DO NOT have a "sure playoff spot" if we beat TSUN. We are at the mercy of the committee. Our best shot is for AU to beat Bama, us to win the West, then beat UGA/Mizzo in the SECCG. That is the only sure playoff path, short of other contenders losing.

I guess you're allowing for the Committee to put both Ohio State and Baylor/TCU ahead of us if Alabama loses. That will not happen if we win in Oxford. Ohio State maybe jumps us, but not TCU/Baylor. There would be nothing to justify that.

If Baylor beats TT, then follows that with a win over a K-State that's going to be ranked somewhere between 9-11, they'll be B12 Champs, with wins over a likely Top 10 TCU, a Top-10-ish K-State & a likely Top-20 OU. If we don't make the SECCG, the best we can do is beat an Ole Miss that is probably going to be ranked below OU. We'll have the AU win as our best, maybe a Top 25 LSU to go along with a win over TSUN that will drop them from the ranking entirely.

Jeff Long has already said it's really close between 4-7. Can you really not envision the committee deciding by the end, that Baylor has a better resume? Yes, the rest of their schedule is garbage, but they've already absorbed the hit on that. If it's really close now, what makes you feel so secure that a win over Top 10 K-State, PLUS a B12 Championship won't be enough to overcome our win over a low-ranked TSUN?

[AlmostPositive]

[QUOTE=AlmostPositive;294017]

If Baylor beats TT, then follows that with a win over a K-State that's going to be ranked somewhere between 9-11, they'll be B12 Champs, with wins over a likely Top 10 TCU, a Top-10-ish K-State & a likely Top-20 OU. If we don't make the SECCG, the best we can do is beat an Ole Miss that is probably going to be ranked below OU. We'll have the AU win as our best, maybe a Top 25 LSU to go along with a win over TSUN that will drop them from the ranking entirely.

Jeff Long has already said it's really close between 4-7. Can you really not envision the committee deciding by the end, that Baylor has a better resume? Yes, the rest of their schedule is garbage, but they've already absorbed the hit on that. If it's really close now, what makes you feel so secure that a win over Top 10 K-State, PLUS a B12 Championship won't be enough to overcome our win over a low-ranked TSUN?

K-State is not Top 10 and won't be close if they lose to Baylor

[blacklistedbully]

[QUOTE=blacklistedbully;294057]

K-State is not Top 10 and won't be close if they lose to Baylor

K-State was #12, won, and will move up at least to #11 on TSUN's loss. All they need to get in the Top 10 is one poor performance or loss from a T10. In any case, are you really going to hang your hat on whether K-State is #11 instead of #10?

In any case, if they lose a close one to a higher ranked Baylor, you shouldn;t expect them to drop too much. Will still have a great chance of being Top 15, depending on what happens with other teams.

[whosyourdawgy]

Our beat shot at getting in is to win our game convincingly first of all. Then we need KState to beat Baylor and Wisconsin to beat OSU. That happens and no way they can keep us out of the 4.

[AlmostPositive]

If Alabama loses -- which was the premise I started with -- the Committee will have to consider the unseemliness of leaving the SEC out altogether if they want both Ohio State and Baylor to jump us. Theoretically, anything they want to do is possible, but State will have played arguably a tougher overall schedule with a better loss than any team in the country. What they will be doing is abdicating their role and essentially choosing the conference champions with one loss or less. They would make themselves pointless.

[ShotgunDawg]

[QUOTE=AlmostPositive;294017]

If Baylor beats TT, then follows that with a win over a K-State that's going to be ranked somewhere between 9-11, they'll be B12 Champs, with wins over a likely Top 10 TCU, a Top-10-ish K-State & a likely Top-20 OU. If we don't make the SECCG, the best we can do is beat an Ole Miss that is probably going to be ranked below OU. We'll have the AU win as our best, maybe a Top 25 LSU to go along with a win over TSUN that will drop them from the ranking entirely.

Jeff Long has already said it's really close between 4-7. Can you really not envision the committee deciding by the end, that Baylor has a better resume? Yes, the rest of their schedule is garbage, but they've already absorbed the hit on that. If it's really close now, what makes you feel so secure that a win over Top 10 K-State, PLUS a B12 Championship won't be enough to overcome our win over a low-ranked TSUN?

Your not considering who has the best loss though. MSU has by far the best loss and it was on the road. Due to the Bama game being a road game, there's little evidence to support MSU not possibly being the best team in college football.

I don't understand why everyone only talks about "who you beat" and ignores "who you lost to"

[blacklistedbully]

[QUOTE=blacklistedbully;294057]

Your not considering who has the best loss though. MSU has by far the best loss and it was on the road. Due to the Bama game being a road game, there's little evidence to support MSU not possibly being the best team in college football.

I don't understand why everyone only talks about "who you beat" and ignores "who you lost to"

Wrong, I am absolutely considering that. It's one of the reasons we are ahead right now. But that is in the past. The committee has said, and is charged with looking and judging every week at the entire body of work. If we are narrowly ahead right now, who is to say they won't decide Baylor's resume got just enough better in the end? They have also said they will consider conference championships in the end. No, it's not an overriding factor, but it is a factor they will consider.

IMO, it boils down to how narrow the margin is now. If it's already as close as has been suggested, then it makes no sense for us to assume we are in if we win, no matter what. If it's razor-thin, we could be passed over by Baylor beating a higher-ranked team and winning a B12 Championship, or by OSU winning out and beating Wisconsin in the B10CG.

That's why I prefer we win the SECCG. That's the ONLY way we actually control our own destiny. Anything else is hoping & praying or relying on the committee to value us as much as we value ourselves.

[AlmostPositive]

Don't you think the committee will be compelled to ahve at least one SEC team? I think they will have this in mind whether they openly discuss it or not.

(Keep in mind, the whole starting point of this discussion was Bama losing to GA/MIZZ, which puts them out. You do not seem to have even registered the possibility of us losing the SECG and therefore staying home; the odds of this would have to be close to 50%. Bama losing makes it MUCH more likely we make the playoffs; also more likely that we win the whole thing.)

[blacklistedbully]

Are we really so sure Bama would be penalized in favor of us for losing in the SECCG when they beat us head-to-head? That's an extra game for them. If they lose a close one, I'm not so sure we'd slip past them unless we absolutely demolish TSUN. I do think it's possible the SEC could be left out. I wouldn't agree with it, but I could certainly see it happening.

We just might have a better chance of making it as a 2nd SEC if Bama dominates the SECCG and we dominate TSUN than we would if Bama loses the SECCG. If Bama loses, I could see the committee deciding Bama is out, and that we're out because we lost head-to-head to Bama, unless at least 2 others in the Top 7 lose. I don't think it would happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did. UGA/Mizzou are too far down to make it.

That said, I think FSU is going to lose either to UF, GT or both, and 1 loss knocks them out. I think Ohio State will lose badly to Wisconsin in the B10CG, dropping them out.

If I had to bet on the final 4 right now, I'd go with:
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. MSU
4. Baylor

[whosyourdawgy]

Are we really so sure Bama would be penalized in favor of us for losing in the SECCG when they beat us head-to-head? That's an extra game for them. If they lose a close one, I'm not so sure we'd slip past them unless we absolutely demolish TSUN. I do think it's possible the SEC could be left out. I wouldn't agree with it, but I could certainly see it happening.

We just might have a better chance of making it as a 2nd SEC if Bama dominates the SECCG and we dominate TSUN than we would if Bama loses the SECCG. If Bama loses, I could see the committee deciding Bama is out, and that we're out because we lost head-to-head to Bama, unless at least 2 others in the Top 7 lose. I don't think it would happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did. UGA/Mizzou are too far down to make it.

That said, I think FSU is going to lose either to UF, GT or both, and 1 loss knocks them out. I think Ohio State will lose badly to Wisconsin in the B10CG, dropping them out.

If I had to bet on the final 4 right now, I'd go with:
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. MSU
4. Baylor

I'm with you all day long. I don't think we need Bama to lose a game. I think you got it right we need FSU to lose and OSU to lose. We could even have Oregon lose a game and get them out of the way. There is a lot of football left to be played and all we have any control over is beating the Hell out of the Bears. Let's just hope some of what you and I say happens and we will be fine.

[archdog]

Our best playoff path is for Bama to lose to Auburn and we win the SEC championship game. Only way to get a gauranteed spot. Now Bama losing the SECCG is a path but not a guaranteed path. So it is not the best. Sure fure is better than 12 people's subjective choice.