curmudgeon
11-22-2014, 12:36 PM
If MSU were to beat Vandy and Ole Miss and finish 11-1, what are the chances of staying in the Top 4.
If the other six competitors for the playoffs win out, its really a crapshoot. The committee could pick TCU, Baylor or Ohio State over us.
However, what if one of the top three loses over the next three weekends?
3 wins + Alabama loss to Auburn = as near 100% as you can get. I've gone out 500 places and still get 9s.
2 wins + Alabama loss to Georgia/Mizzou = 99.7%
2 wins + FSU loss = 99.3%
2 wins + Oregon loss = 99.2%
---------
Interestingly enough, take a look at what happens behind us:
2 wins + TCU loss = 67%
2 wins + Baylor loss = 58%
2 wins + Ohio State loss = 89%
2 wins + TCU and Baylor loss = 67%
What does this say? TCU and Baylor aren't who we need to watch out for. Its Ohio State. Simulations say that an 12-1 Ohio State vs. a 11-1 MSU is actually in Ohio State's favor (46-54)
If the other six competitors for the playoffs win out, its really a crapshoot. The committee could pick TCU, Baylor or Ohio State over us.
However, what if one of the top three loses over the next three weekends?
3 wins + Alabama loss to Auburn = as near 100% as you can get. I've gone out 500 places and still get 9s.
2 wins + Alabama loss to Georgia/Mizzou = 99.7%
2 wins + FSU loss = 99.3%
2 wins + Oregon loss = 99.2%
---------
Interestingly enough, take a look at what happens behind us:
2 wins + TCU loss = 67%
2 wins + Baylor loss = 58%
2 wins + Ohio State loss = 89%
2 wins + TCU and Baylor loss = 67%
What does this say? TCU and Baylor aren't who we need to watch out for. Its Ohio State. Simulations say that an 12-1 Ohio State vs. a 11-1 MSU is actually in Ohio State's favor (46-54)