Pt. spread thread on the other board. Something to worry about?

[AlSwearengen]

Posters over there were talking about why the pt. spread had gotten to 10, but someone said that 60 some odd percent of the money was on MSU. They were speculating that the only reason for that to happen is that the odds makers know something (such as someone won't play). Any gamblers here have an opinion?

[Coach34]

Our guys are good to go per a source from Starkville I know

[MrKotter]

Vegas lines don't move like they used to. Just because a line is moving heavy to one side does not mean that is where the money is going.

[State82]

Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports just discussed this on Bounds' show. He said when a line moves this much these days it may be from off shore action. But it usually means 20-30 million heavy on one side to get that much movement. He also said the wrong team is favored.

[ShotgunDawg]

Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports just discussed this on Bounds' show. He said when a line moves this much these days it may be from off shore action. But it usually means 20-30 million heavy on one side to get that much movement. He also said the wrong team is favored.

Yup, good interview by Bo. Said the only reason everyone is heavy on Bama is because the public believes Bama is invincible at home, and because Bama won 20-7 last year.

He said the problem is, Bama is banged up and not as good last year, and Dak Prescott didn't play in last year's game.

I was glad to hear him say these things because I've been racking my brain all week trying to make sure I'm thinking with my mind and not my heart on this game. Hearing a professional handicapper agree with me, makes me realize that we aren't crazy.

[Dawghouse]

If I was a gambler that +310 on the money line would be tempting.

[msstate7]

Yup, good interview by Bo. Said the only reason everyone is heavy on Bama is because the public believes Bama is invincible at home, and because Bama won 20-7 last year.

He said the problem is, Bama is banged up and not as good last year, and Dak Prescott didn't play in last year's game.

I was glad to hear him say these things because I've been racking my brain all week trying to make sure I'm thinking with my mind and not my heart on this game. Hearing a professional handicapper agree with me, makes me realize that we aren't crazy.

Jrob > LP too.

[Original48]

From Betvega..whatever that is. I googled who the public was betting on. This was the first one that popped up.

11/15 3:30pm Mississippi St vs Alabama (CBS)
Alabama 41.30%
Mississippi St 58.70%
1104 Bets

[codeDawg]

Somebody with a lot of money thinks they know something. Maybe it's real info, maybe it's indigestion, but they moved the line significantly quickly. Now, you never know. Maybe this is a couple of big pros who like to bet on Bama just finally moving late.

I don't get it though. These teams match up pretty well on paper. There is a lot of risk at the QB position for Bama. There is no way I would give MSU 10 points.

The red is the public money on MSU.


http://legacy.sportsinsights.com/BuildGraphs/LargeGraph.aspx?sport_id=11&v_nss=395&v_date=11/15/2014&span=144&gtype=5&basic=1

[Tdawg]

Posters over there were talking about why the pt. spread had gotten to 10, but someone said that 60 some odd percent of the money was on MSU. They were speculating that the only reason for that to happen is that the odds makers know something (such as someone won't play). Any gamblers here have an opinion?

The reason the line has moved as much as it has is because the Professional money came in fast and big when the line was at -7. Bama is always bet heavily by the public--especially their own fans, so the only way to offset the early pro money and the predictable public money was to push the line very high. Personally, I'd rather be on the side the pro's are betting, but they don't win them all.

[Lloyd Christmas]

Posters over there were talking about why the pt. spread had gotten to 10, but someone said that 60 some odd percent of the money was on MSU. They were speculating that the only reason for that to happen is that the odds makers know something (such as someone won't play). Any gamblers here have an opinion?

The odds of Vegas knowing anything that our insider's don't is laughable. This isn't surprising. Groupthink is more powerful than ever these days and the talking heads have told the sheep that Bama will be Bama and State will be 2006 State.

[Political Hack]

The odds of Vegas knowing anything that our insider's don't is laughable. This isn't surprising. Groupthink is more powerful than ever these days and the talking heads have told the sheep that Bama will be Bama and State will be 2006 State.

if they gave me pads, I'm pretty sure I could create havoc up the middle at this point. If the team is half as jacked as I am, we may blow them out of the stadium. THIS GAME is what we've been waiting on. This is why we've played less than stellar the last few weeks. THIS is what matters and what they've been looking forward to.

[Perpetual Underachiever]

There appears to be some confusion about these percentages. Right now 70% of "wagers" placed are on the dogs, NOT 70% of the money wagered. The sharps are all over Bama and it does somewhat concern me. It takes a LOT of money to move the line 3.5 points from the open. I'm still confident in the dogs, but this line will be interesting to watch.

[UMCDawg16]

if they gave me pads, I'm pretty sure I could create havoc up the middle at this point. If the team is half as jacked as I am, we may blow them out of the stadium. THIS GAME is what we've been waiting on. This is why we've played less than stellar the last few weeks. THIS is what matters and what they've been looking forward to.

Exactly, I don't think people understand what this team is all about. This team is on a mission and Bama is just another team in the way. Screw history, screw Bama, we win this game by 10+. We have a SPECIAL team this year and they will not stop until be get to Atlanta. We have been dicking around for 3 weeks in anticipation for tomorrow. There are going to be a lot of upset bammer fans tomorrow.

[Pollodawg]

So many broke Bama fans come Sunday morning.

The perfect cartoon for Sunday afternoon will be a redneck in a convenience store with a sixer of Busch on the counter and his pockets turned inside out while the clerk scowls in annoyance.

[RougeDawg]

If I was a gambler that +310 on the money line would be tempting.

This is a no brainer. Could make some serious coin this week because we will win.

But now that I think about it we were 3-4 or dogs at home against Auburn, after pounding LSU and A&M. At auburn we would have been. 7-10 pt dogs based on what we got at home and that line wouldn't have made sense either. It's more national public perception when they set Bama lines because they draw a lot of $.

[dawgs]

bama is 3-6 ATS this season. just saying.

[I seen it dawg]

The only worry about the spread would be if you are stupid enough to bet on the elephants.

[blacklistedbully]

There appears to be some confusion about these percentages. Right now 70% of "wagers" placed are on the dogs, NOT 70% of the money wagered. The sharps are all over Bama and it does somewhat concern me. It takes a LOT of money to move the line 3.5 points from the open. I'm still confident in the dogs, but this line will be interesting to watch.

God forbid, and I really don't like even mentioning this, but are you thinking this game may be "fixed"? Keep in mind, several World Cup matches were purportedly fixed by officials who were supplied by a company know to be associated with gamblers and/or crime syndicates.

[cheewgumm]

+300

[dparker]

God forbid, and I really don't like even mentioning this, but are you thinking this game may be "fixed"? Keep in mind, several World Cup matches were purportedly fixed by officials who were supplied by a company know to be associated with gamblers and/or crime syndicates.

Hypnodog and I were talking this very idea at lunch today given how the line is moving compared to where most people seems to be betting.

[ScoobaDawg]

God forbid, and I really don't like even mentioning this, but are you thinking this game may be "fixed"? Keep in mind, several World Cup matches were purportedly fixed by officials who were supplied by a company know to be associated with gamblers and/or crime syndicates.

I didn't take it that way.. I took it more on that Vegas might know something that we don't.. But i dont think that holds true. We are ready.

[Political Hack]

if wise guys fixed the line it could be for two things, to load the books in favor of State to give Vegas a big pay day off the line... or to push out the money line and bet straight up on state to win and get $3 for every $1 risked.

Use 20M to push the line, bet 50M on State straight up, and win $150M with a $70M investment. Big boys don't play... and we're a marquee matchup now. These things are going to happen.

All that said, if that prick turns around and checks the yard marker before spotting the ball all hell is going to break loose.

[Political Hack]

to add... the moneyline on State right now is +305. That may be the best risk/reward bet of the season.

[drunkernhelldawg]

God forbid, and I really don't like even mentioning this, but are you thinking this game may be "fixed"? Keep in mind, several World Cup matches were purportedly fixed by officials who were supplied by a company know to be associated with gamblers and/or crime syndicates.

That does make me a little nervous. I wish it had never happened before, but it has. I don't believe it has, but like I say, it gives me a slight touch of misgiving.

[hells bells]

I have seen several calls in Tuscaloosa ie, "holding" in the open field that cost us a TD and another trip to Atlanta. Now, too many angles on TV and review should help. Sum thing tells me, we get em and good.

[cheewgumm]

That line has me freaked out. Basically somebody(s) has a lot of $ and bet it on Bama.

But if someone were hurt we'd know it you'd think.

It just amazes me anyone could watch them play and think they'd beat anybody by 10.

[hells bells]

Cheew, home field advantage and tradition makes Vegas stoke the whales. Someone will offset the bet before kick off. It will not change the game. State rolls hard.

[Political Hack]

That line has me freaked out. Basically somebody(s) has a lot of $ and bet it on Bama.

But if someone were hurt we'd know it you'd think.

It just amazes me anyone could watch them play and think they'd beat anybody by 10.

read my post above. Someone could push out the money line with a huge bet on the spread and come back and make a TON off the money line by State winning straight up. $20M bet on Bama to cover, line shifts to Bama -10 along with the money line to +305, bet $100M on State straight up, and you only lose $20M to make $305M.

We are PRIME TIME now. These things are going to happen during our games.

[I seen it dawg]

Vegas didn't have the Green Bay line and the Philly line this past weekend at astronomical amounts even though anyone that follows football knows they were going to be huge blowouts. It happens.