Selection Committee is a damn travesty

[Political Hack]

to have FSU ranked below Oregon is absurd. I can't believe they'd start pushing FSU out of the top four in favor of 1-loss teams when they are without a loss. That's insane. This sets a TERRIBLE precedent.

I hate FSU as much as the next guy, but that's downright shameful.

[Political Hack]

and then they rank TCU ahead of Baylor even though Baylor won head to head? If the games aren't decided on the field, then we need a better explanation as to what the hell matters. Absolute garbage.

[msstate7]

If we lose, we're screwed imo.

[mstatefan91]

Just win. Eff the committee

[Political Hack]

If we lose, we're screwed imo.

there's only two sec teams still in play. We can still easily get in with a loss at Bama. A loss to OM would likely end us though.

[BLITZII]

I think you are getting way to upset about a poll.........when the only one that really matters is the last one in December. Just win and the poll takes care of itself.

[smootness]

and then they rank TCU ahead of Baylor even though Baylor won head to head? If the games aren't decided on the field, then we need a better explanation as to what the hell matters. Absolute garbage.

I agree with you on FSU below Oregon, but I definitely disagree on this. I've never understood why head-to-head makes all other criteria moot. Yes, it matters and should weigh heavily. But just because two teams have the same number of losses and one beat the other doesn't mean that team should automatically be ranked higher.

I'll put it this way - let's say we played the SEC schedule we have ahead of us and ran the table, finished 8-0 in conference...but scheduled Clemson non-conference and lost. And let's say Clemson lost to Florida State, beat us, and beat literally no one else of consequence. Should Clemson be ranked ahead of us? I say no way.

[Liverpooldawg]

FSU should be ahead of Oregon and so should Bama. TCU is a joke in the Top 4.

[Political Hack]

I agree with you on FSU below Oregon, but I definitely disagree on this. I've never understood why head-to-head makes all other criteria moot. Yes, it matters and should weigh heavily. But just because two teams have the same number of losses and one beat the other doesn't mean that team should automatically be ranked higher.

I'll put it this way - let's say we played the SEC schedule we have ahead of us and ran the table, finished 8-0 in conference...but scheduled Clemson non-conference and lost. And let's say Clemson lost to Florida State, beat us, and beat literally no one else of consequence. Should Clemson be ranked ahead of us? I say no way.

Baylor and TCU are in the same conference. they play the same teams. Baylor could win the big 12, beat TCU head to head, and watch TCU go to the playoff. that's absurd.

[smootness]

FSU should be ahead of Oregon and so should Bama. TCU is a joke in the Top 4.

Do you know what TCU has done this year? They definitely have a better resume than Bama.

[smootness]

Baylor and TCU are in the same conference. they play the same teams. Baylor could win the big 12, beat TCU head to head, and watch TCU go to the playoff. that's absurd.

I doubt it. I think if Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Kansas State, they will pass TCU. The committee is ranking these teams based on what they've done so far, not where they would be if they all won out. Right now TCU has over Baylor the fact that they beat those two teams, Minnesota, and WV, to whom Baylor lost. Yes, Baylor's win over TCU makes up for some of that but not all of it. I think if Baylor wins out, they will make up that difference and pass TCU.

[MSUTTT1]

We weren't ranked to start the season.

[Homedawg]

and then they rank TCU ahead of Baylor even though Baylor won head to head? If the games aren't decided on the field, then we need a better explanation as to what the hell matters. Absolute garbage.

Baylor should gain more points-value if they beat ksu. At this point, tcu has had the tougher go in the big 12 so far. If they both win out then there is the final quandary

[Homedawg]

I doubt it. I think if Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Kansas State, they will pass TCU. The committee is ranking these teams based on what they've done so far, not where they would be if they all won out. Right now TCU has over Baylor the fact that they beat those two teams, Minnesota, and WV, to whom Baylor lost. Yes, Baylor's win over TCU makes up for some of that but not all of it. I think if Baylor wins out, they will make up that difference and pass TCU.
Sorry, my post was redundant. This 100%.

[Homedawg]

Do you know what TCU has done this year? They definitely have a better resume than Bama.

Agree. Based on what they have done, tcu should be 4 right now. It doesn't matter. It will take care of itself.

[gravedigger]

to have FSU ranked below Oregon is absurd. I can't believe they'd start pushing FSU out of the top four in favor of 1-loss teams when they are without a loss. That's insane. This sets a TERRIBLE precedent.

I hate FSU as much as the next guy, but that's downright shameful.

Could not disagree more. Fsu dropping sends the message that it isnt good enough to just post a win. It tells everyone that not only wins but quality of wins matter. You cannot keep a team beneath them that has earned the right to hold a slot if they have won bigger games.

Bama should be number 3-4. If not 2. Oregon gets the nod due to the win over mich state but that is a weak lead. Tcu's loss to baylor should not give them the lead over bama but certainly should over fsu.

My top 3 are state bama oregon. Fsu has no more right to the 4 spot than any number of teams.

[blacklistedbully]

Hack, I gotta agree with gravedigger on this one. FSU just doesn't scare me. Oregon makes me nervous.

My sense is, we'd beat the shit outta FSU, but would have a barn-burner with Oregon. Which of those teams would worry you the most as an opponent?

[Liverpooldawg]

Do you know what TCU has done this year? They definitely have a better resume than Bama.

Yeah, they lost to Baylor in a game that had no defense whatsoever.

[Homedawg]

Yeah, they lost to Baylor in a game that had no defense whatsoever.

True. But does losing a game w no defense get you less credit than losing a low scoring game?

[DancingRabbit]

I agree that Oregon should not have jumped FSU at this point. That strikes me as very odd.

But have no problem with TCU at #4.

[MabenMaroon]

[QUOTE=Liverpooldawg;286389]Yeah, they lost to Baylor in a game that had no defense whatsoever.[/QUOTE

TCU had a 21 point lead and on 2 separate occasions db's either fell down or ran into each other leading to easy scores. TCU also curb stomped a pretty solid and well coached KSU. Will agree that Oregon is kind of scary just because of their shear speed on offense and they like us have a Heisman quality signal caller.

[TUSK]

Could not disagree more. Fsu dropping sends the message that it isnt good enough to just post a win. It tells everyone that not only wins but quality of wins matter. You cannot keep a team beneath them that has earned the right to hold a slot if they have won bigger games.

Bama should be number 3-4. If not 2. Oregon gets the nod due to the win over mich state but that is a weak lead. Tcu's loss to baylor should not give them the lead over bama but certainly should over fsu.

My top 3 are state bama oregon. Fsu has no more right to the 4 spot than any number of teams.

Barring upsets and with NO particular seeding; the top 10 that will likely make the playoffs:

PAC 12 Champ (6 ASU/2 Oregon Winner)
4 TCU
3 FSU
SEC team (1 MS ST, 5 UA, 9 AU, 10 MS)...

7 Baylor & 8 Ohio St are "dead" IMO....

Caveat: in no way am I suggesting any team is more or less talented, has a better or worse resume/body of work, has better grades on the "eyeball test", or is otherwise "better" than any other team.

[shoeless joe]

It's a discussion of whether they are ranking the best 4 teams in the country or the teams that "deserve" to be ranked in the top 4. Huge difference ther IMO but it seems they are trying to get the best 4 teams in the top 4

[ShotgunDawg]

A few thoughts:

- I like that the committee jumped Oregon over FSU because it sets the precedent that they can jump MSU over FSU if we were to lose to Bama and then beat Ole Miss. Doing that would give 3 top 20 wins and a great loss. Our resume would be better than Oregon's.

- I expect us to win at Bama, but should that not happen and it's a close game, I expect us to fall to 4th or 5th.

- Under those circumstances, it would be beneficial to us to cheer for Ole Miss to be ranked as high as possible when we play them. i.e. There's a chance we may need to cheer for Ole Miss against Arkansas. Beating a 9-2 Ole Miss team on the road could put us the playoff if we have a loss.

- The main thing for everyone to keep in mind is that, if history is any kind of predictor, we will likely get in the playoff if we only lose at Bama, because someone else will screw up. Every year during the BCS, people were whining and complaining this time of year, and it worked out EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Someone will get upset and open the door. It happens every year. I would be HIGHLY shocked if a loss @ Bama ended up costing us a shot in the playoffs. History doesn't indicate that it would.

- That being said, lets just beat Bama on Saturday and pretty much wrap up a playoff spot.

[Political Hack]

glad to know this is now a beauty contest and no lover about what happens on the field of play. Wasn't "deciding it on the field" the whole point of the playoffs? instead, Baylor beats TCU to see TCU be ranked ahead of them. FSU is undefeated while Oregon lost to a big ten school. It's becoming about "how pretty did you look this week" rather than your body of work or who has beat who.

[Political Hack]

Also, the Big12 winner is garbage. They don't even have a conference championship game. A two loss SEC team deserves to be in over a conference championship 1-loss Big12 team.

[Homedawg]

Barring upsets and with NO particular seeding; the top 10 that will likely make the playoffs:

PAC 12 Champ (6 ASU/2 Oregon Winner)
4 TCU
3 FSU
SEC team (1 MS ST, 5 UA, 9 AU, 10 MS)...


7 Baylor & 8 Ohio St are "dead" IMO....

Caveat: in no way am I suggesting any team is more or less talented, has a better or worse resume/body of work, has better grades on the "eyeball test", or is otherwise "better" than any other team.

There is no way a 2 loss sec team gets in at this point. Now let Ohio st lose, Oregon and Arizona st and fsu Lose then yea maybe. But no way it happens as it stands now.

[Liverpooldawg]

[QUOTE=Liverpooldawg;286389]Yeah, they lost to Baylor in a game that had no defense whatsoever.[/QUOTE

TCU had a 21 point lead and on 2 separate occasions db's either fell down or ran into each other leading to easy scores. TCU also curb stomped a pretty solid and well coached KSU. Will agree that Oregon is kind of scary just because of their shear speed on offense and they like us have a Heisman quality signal caller.
So TCU blew a 21 point lead twice and lost and they are #4 in the country? Ok

[Homedawg]

Also, the Big12 winner is garbage. They don't even have a conference championship game. A two loss SEC team deserves to be in over a conference championship 1-loss Big12 team.

Probably true, but it's the nature of the beast. I dont have any problems w that. Now a one loss big twelve champ over a one loss sec team, that's different. Remember, what they are supposedly basing it on is at this point ! Bama has two more game to elevate their resume. Tcu basically has none. All their bullets have been fired, so to speak.

[msstate7]

Keep an eye on Ohio state...

I feel we'll beat bama and eliminate them.

Ohio state plays at #25 Minnesota this week and will most likely play the winner of Nebraska/Wisconsin in the big 10 championship game.

Arizona state/Oregon winner in pac 12 championship game is a lock.

I really feel Fsu will go down to one of their in state rivals eliminating them.

Final spot will be between Baylor/tcu

My prediction:

1. State
2. Arizona state
3. Tcu
4. Ohio state

[engie]

Could not disagree more. Fsu dropping sends the message that it isnt good enough to just post a win. It tells everyone that not only wins but quality of wins matter. You cannot keep a team beneath them that has earned the right to hold a slot if they have won bigger games.

Bama should be number 3-4. If not 2. Oregon gets the nod due to the win over mich state but that is a weak lead. Tcu's loss to baylor should not give them the lead over bama but certainly should over fsu.

My top 3 are state bama oregon. Fsu has no more right to the 4 spot than any number of teams.

My thing about Oregon is that, in reality, they aren't passing the "eye test" very well either. Sure, their final scores look good. Not much unlike FSU in that regard. They should have been down double digits in the 4th quarter @ Utah had the boneheaded play never happened. That changed the whole complexion of a game that Oregon, to those that watched it, easily could have lost. No need in fretting over it though -- because Arizona St is going to take them out in the pac12 title game...

Need Arizona St to lose @ Arizona and their win over Oregon to take the Pac12 out of the race.
Need Baylor to drop one more and the Longhorns to take out TCU @ home on Thanksgiving.
Need FSU to lose this weekend @ Miami.

The cannibalization isn't even close to complete yet. My hope is that this year, like most years in the past, there becomes clear separation in the last few weeks/games...

[gravedigger]

Keep an eye on Ohio state..

I feel we'll beat bama and eliminate them.

Ohio state plays at #25 Minnesota this week and will most likely play the winner of Nebraska/Wisconsin in the big 10 championship game.

Arizona state/Oregon winner in pac 12 championship game is a lock.

I really feel Fsu will go down to one of their in state rivals eliminating them.

Final spot will be between Baylor/tcu

My prediction:

1. State
2. Arizona state
3. Tcu
4. Ohio state

Interesting. Very.

[TUSK]

Also, the Big12 winner is garbage. They don't even have a conference championship game. A two loss SEC team deserves to be in over a conference championship 1-loss Big12 team.

I'm with you... however, I don't think it's the way it's moving... It's certainly becoming more politically correct than I'd like (see what I did there?)...

If I just had to pull the 4 best teams outta my ass (right now), I'd go MSU, Bammer, Oregon/ASU & Ohio State... (I'm afraid Bammer/MSU loser won't make it...)

outside looking in: AU, TCU, Baylor....

[I seen it dawg]

Keep an eye on Ohio state...

I feel we'll beat bama and eliminate them.

Ohio state plays at #25 Minnesota this week and will most likely play the winner of Nebraska/Wisconsin in the big 10 championship game.

Arizona state/Oregon winner in pac 12 championship game is a lock.

I really feel Fsu will go down to one of their in state rivals eliminating them.

Final spot will be between Baylor/tcu

My prediction:

1. State
2. Arizona state
3. Tcu
4. Ohio state

With cannibalization could absolutely see this.

[Bass Chaser]

Didn't Long say something about top 25 wins as the reason for Oregon jumping FSU?

[engie]

Arizona state/Oregon winner in pac 12 championship game is a lock.

Only if they both win until then -- which is certainly a long way from a lock...

[msstate7]

Only if they both win until then -- which is certainly a long way from a lock...

Oregon plays Colorado and at Oregon st

Asu plays at Oregon st, wash st, and at Arizona.

I could see maybe Arizona beating asu, but I doubt it.

[ShotgunDawg]

One sneaky good thing for us in poll this week is that A&M is ranked 24th. So, IF we lose to Bama and Beat Ole Miss, we would have victories over 4 top 25 playoff teams, easily the most in the country. LSU, A&M, Auburn, & OM

[Political Hack]

I'm with you... however, I don't think it's the way it's moving... It's certainly becoming more politically correct than I'd like (see what I did there?)...

If I just had to pull the 4 best teams outta my ass (right now), I'd go MSU, Bammer, Oregon/ASU & Ohio State... (I'm afraid Bammer/MSU loser won't make it...)

outside looking in: AU, TCU, Baylor....

If State loses, an then wins out, they're in. If Bama loses, it'll be hard with 2 losses.

[msstate7]

One sneaky good thing for us in poll this week is that A&M is ranked 24th. So, IF we lose to Bama and Beat Ole Miss, we would have victories over 4 top 25 playoff teams, easily the most in the country. LSU, A&M, Auburn, & OM

Lsu and aTm play each other so the loser could very well be unranked. I actually think ark is gonna knock lsu out this week

[engie]

Oregon plays Colorado and at Oregon st

Asu plays at Oregon st, wash st, and at Arizona.

I could see maybe Arizona beating asu, but I doubt it.

Much like in the SEC now -- practically no game out there is a given anymore. Don't underestimate the Ducks' ability to shit down their necks in spectacular fashion late in the season...

[CadaverDawg]

I think Oregon is worse than the Oregon of old. They don't worry me a bit.

The SEC's best and only shot IMO at getting 2 teams in, is if we lose to Bama and then win out....and FSU loses to Miami or Florida. At that point, you would hope that either Bama loses to Auburn and puts us in the Championship, or that we both win out and they have us as the 4 seed with one loss.

If FSU wins out, there can only be 1 SEC team, because we KNOW that the PAC12 winner will get in, the Big 12 winner gets in, and FSU is in, and the SEC Champ would be in no doubt.

If FSU loses and we lose to Bama, we better hope we win out and the committee feels like a 1 loss non-Champion MSU team deserves to be in the playoff more than a 1 loss Big10 Champ in Ohio State. I don't like our odds on that....it would be nerve racking.

To me, the best 4 teams in the country right now are...

1. MSU
2. Alabama
3. FSU
4. Oregon/TCU

To me, those first 3 are the only teams in the country worthy of the playoffs that play defense. Oregon and TCU are just in by default but neither plays defense. Unfortunately, I think the committee will value conference championships instead of putting the best 4 in there. We need to beat Bama.

[msstate7]

Much like in the SEC now -- practically no game out there is a given anymore. Don't underestimate the Ducks' ability to shit down their necks in spectacular fashion late in the season...

Hope you're right. I hate Oregon with the same passion I reserve for sec west opponents for some reason

[Percho]

glad to know this is now a beauty contest and no lover about what happens on the field of play. Wasn't "deciding it on the field" the whole point of the playoffs? instead, Baylor beats TCU to see TCU be ranked ahead of them. FSU is undefeated while Oregon lost to a big ten school. It's becoming about "how pretty did you look this week" rather than your body of work or who has beat who.

It's not how pretty your are, it's how pretty the other girls are????

[TUSK]

I think Oregon is worse than the Oregon of old. They don't worry me a bit.

The SEC's best and only shot IMO at getting 2 teams in, is if we lose to Bama and then win out....and FSU loses to Miami or Florida. At that point, you would hope that either Bama loses to Auburn and puts us in the Championship, or that we both win out and they have us as the 4 seed with one loss.

If FSU wins out, there can only be 1 SEC team, because we KNOW that the PAC12 winner will get in, the Big 12 winner gets in, and FSU is in, and the SEC Champ would be in no doubt.

If FSU loses and we lose to Bama, we better hope we win out and the committee feels like a 1 loss non-Champion MSU team deserves to be in the playoff more than a 1 loss Big10 Champ in Ohio State. I don't like our odds on that....it would be nerve racking.

To me, the best 4 teams in the country right now are...

1. MSU
2. Alabama
3. FSU
4. Oregon/TCU

To me, those first 3 are the only teams in the country worthy of the playoffs that play defense. Oregon and TCU are just in by default but neither plays defense. Unfortunately, I think the committee will value conference championships instead of putting the best 4 in there. We need to beat Bama.

In the CFP peeps mind, Oregon has better/more quality wins than anyone in the country... (I do not agree with their rankings, however)...

[starkvegasdawg]

To guarantee us a spot in the playoffs I think we have to make the SECCG and leave it with only one loss on the season. That loss can come anywhere except to Vandy. If we don't make the SECCG or make it but have two losses on our resume I don't think we have a shot.

[Political Hack]

To guarantee us a spot in the playoffs I think we have to make the SECCG and leave it with only one loss on the season. That loss can come anywhere except to Vandy. If we don't make the SECCG or make it but have two losses on our resume I don't think we have a shot.

disagree. I think we could lose this weekend, Bama goes to SECCG and we make the #3 or 4 spot with 1 loss behind Bama with 1 loss.

[TUSK]

To guarantee us a spot in the playoffs I think we have to make the SECCG and leave it with only one loss on the season. That loss can come anywhere except to Vandy. If we don't make the SECCG or make it but have two losses on our resume I don't think we have a shot.

this is most likely correct.

[CadaverDawg]

To guarantee us a spot in the playoffs I think we have to make the SECCG and leave it with only one loss on the season. That loss can come anywhere except to Vandy. If we don't make the SECCG or make it but have two losses on our resume I don't think we have a shot.

No doubt that a 1 loss SEC Champion is a lock. The question is whether or not a 1 loss NON-SEC Champion is a lock. If we lose a close Ballgame to Bama, and fall below 4th or 5th in the playoff poll next week, all we can do is hope for a Bama loss or some other help (and of course we have to beat OM). The question is, how far do we fall IF we were to lose to Bama? Because we know Bama is toast if we beat them. Would we fall below 5? I wouldn't think so....and IMO if FSU loses to Miami (wishful thinking), we would likely still be Top 4 next week with a loss to Bama. (A close loss) If we're blown out, we're done unless Auby beats Bama

[Intramural All-American]

In my opinion, head to head should not be a open and shut case. Yea, so Baylor beat TCU, BUT the game was @ Baylor. It was also a win on a last second field goal. How in the world does that prove Baylor is better than TCU? Now, if the game were at a neutral site or @ TCU, then yea Baylor should be given full credit for the head-to-head win.

Also, why is Bama so loved by national media and many on this board? What exactly have they done? The only reason they are receiving so much love is the 59-0 victory over A&M. They did not look good against Ole Miss, they looked bad against Arkansas, they should have lost to LSU, they struggled with WV. In my mind, the only reason Bama is being ranked so high is because they are Bama. I'm glad the committee has not bought into their hype yet. Now, if they beat us, they actually will have accomplished something, and will be in the Final Four.

[ShotgunDawg]

In my opinion, head to head should not be a open and shut case. Yea, so Baylor beat TCU, BUT the game was @ Baylor. It was also a win on a last second field goal. How in the world does that prove Baylor is better than TCU? Now, if the game were at a neutral site or @ TCU, then yea Baylor should be given full credit for the head-to-head win.

Also, why is Bama so loved by national media and many on this board? What exactly have they done? The only reason they are receiving so much love is the 59-0 victory over A&M. They did not look good against Ole Miss, they looked bad against Arkansas, they should have lost to LSU, they struggled with WV. In my mind, the only reason Bama is being ranked so high is because they are Bama. I'm glad the committee has not bought into their hype yet. Now, if they beat us, they actually will have accomplished something, and will be in the Final Four.

They are loved because they are polarizing and get ratings. So long as this game is decided on the field of play, we will be fine.

[FlabLoser]

The committee chairman said on ESPN that Oregon and FSU were almost indistinguishable. Said they were very very close and it really didn't mater which was 2 and which was 3. Virtual tie there.

If I remember right, he also said TCU and Bama were very close.

As far as us losing to Bama....LSU lost to Bama and LSU dropped only one spot. I think a respectable loss to Bama still puts us in the top 4. And if there's any doubt after that, a win over Ole Miss (assuming they beat Arkansas and stay in the top 10) puts us solidly in the top 4.

[TUSK]

No doubt that a 1 loss SEC Champion is a lock. The question is whether or not a 1 loss NON-SEC Champion is a lock. If we lose a close Ballgame to Bama, and fall below 4th or 5th in the playoff poll next week, all we can do is hope for a Bama loss or some other help (and of course we have to beat OM). The question is, how far do we fall IF we were to lose to Bama? Because we know Bama is toast if we beat them. Would we fall below 5? I wouldn't think so....and IMO if FSU loses to Miami (wishful thinking), we would likely still be Top 4 next week with a loss to Bama. (A close loss) If we're blown out, we're done unless Auby beats Bama

another winner (mostly).

possibilities:
1- if UGA wins the SECC, the SEC may be phucked. (UGA ain't gettin in)
2- if any of Bammer, OM, or AU lose any game, they are dead.
3- if MSU loses any game badly and is not SECC, they are out (without LSU 07/Bammer 11 type help).

You cats need to win out and not leave it in doubt.

[Homedawg]

Oregon plays Colorado and at Oregon st

Asu plays at Oregon st, wash st, and at Arizona.

I could see maybe Arizona beating asu, but I doubt it.
If Arizona beats asu, Arizona will be playing Oregon barring something strange. Arizona won't beat Oregon twice.

[msstate7]

The committee chairman said on ESPN that Oregon and FSU were almost indistinguishable. Said they were very very close and it really didn't mater which was 2 and which was 3. Virtual tie there.

If I remember right, he also said TCU and Bama were very close.

As far as us losing to Bama....LSU lost to Bama and LSU dropped only one spot. I think a respectable loss to Bama still puts us in the top 4. And if there's any doubt after that, a win over Ole Miss (assuming they beat Arkansas and stay in the top 10) puts us solidly in the top 4.

I like OM as a better example. They lost at lsu and were in top 4. If we lose to a top 5 team on the road in a respectable game, I think we're still in top 4 with tcu falling to 5.

[engie]

If Arizona beats asu, Arizona will be playing Oregon barring something strange. Arizona won't beat Oregon twice.

Wouldn't be strange at all for them to drop one to either Washington or @ Utah...

[blacklistedbully]

Truly, how many of you on this board who have seen both teams play this year, would rather face Oregon than FSU?

Oregon has one loss when they were missing 4 starters, to #14 Arizona (by 7 points), just as many wins as FSU, more ranked opponent wins, including:

12-point win over #11 UCLA
19-point win over #12 Mich State
24-point win over #23 Utah

Conversely FSU's ranked wins are:

4-point win over #18 ND, a game they probably should have lost
6-point win over #19 Clemson, another game they probably should have lost

It has been known for some time this committee was not going to simply look at W/L result, but would actually judge teams on who they played and how they played, in wins & losses. Hell, even Uber-FSU man Danny Kanell has started to talk about how FSU has not looked good this year in wins, and how it's a matter of time before it bites them in the butt if they don't start playing like they haven't all season.

All you folks who think it's absolutely ludicrous that Oregon could be ahead should perhaps consider that FSU is barely favored to win versus unranked Miami. There's a lot of money being bet on Miami. Given the way FSU has played, including this past Saturday versus Va at home for their Homecoming, is it really so far-fetched to think FSU has a damn good chance of being 9-1 this coming Saturday, just like Oregon is now? And if that happens, how much farther ahead would you think Oregon should be given the above?

Me, I have no problem seeing how Oregon's 3 wins over #11, #12 & #23 trump FSU's narrow wins over #18 & #19. I also think it's so much better that it washes out the 1 loss they suffered to #14 Arizona when Oregon was missing 4 O-line starters. I saw FSU versus ND. Anybody who did knows that FSU team did not look like the better team that day. Anybody who has watched most of their other games also knows this was not a fluke, or a one-time time thing.

FSU may yet get it together and kick some tail, but they haven't yet, and the rankings aren't about what they might be capable of doing. Winning ugly time-after-time-after-time, and never flat-out dominating a decent opponent is not going to make the committee think they are worthy of #2.

12-point win over #11 UCLA > 4-point win over #18 ND
19-point win over #12 Mich State > 6-point win over #19 Clemson
24-point win over #23 Utah > 11-point win over unranked Louisville

All 3 of Oregon's wins appear to be considerably more impressive. Higher margin of victories versus higher-ranked teams. Oregon was not in much danger of losing those games. FSU needed some good fortune to go along with their ability in order to pull out both their wins versus ranked teams.

I would say the above does more than cancel out a 7-point loss to #14 Arizona, particularly when one looks at the other games played. FSU has even looked vulnerable versus some pretty bad teams, while Oregon has beat the crap out of those type teams.

[CadaverDawg]

I would rather face Oregon than FSU. Not by a huge margin, but I would choose Oregon.

[I seen it dawg]

FSU all week long. Oregon is borderline SEC better than ACC FSU.

[CadaverDawg]

FSU all week long. Oregon is borderline SEC better than ACC FSU.

Not saying you're wrong, but based on what? FSU has the talent to beat anybody...they just usually don't crush people. Oregon isn't as talented across the board and plays poor defense. I think FSU would beat Oregon. They are more physical, and play good D when they need to. Neither of them are top of the SEC good imo

[Johnson85]

- The main thing for everyone to keep in mind is that, if history is any kind of predictor, we will likely get in the playoff if we only lose at Bama, because someone else will screw up. Every year during the BCS, people were whining and complaining this time of year, and it worked out EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Someone will get upset and open the door. It happens every year. I would be HIGHLY shocked if a loss @ Bama ended up costing us a shot in the playoffs. History doesn't indicate that it would.


The BCS was a better system than the selection committee. The only issue with the BCS was that it didn't put people into a playoff. Not saying there never would be an issue, but there was never a year where a team with an argument to be the champion wasn't in the top four of the BCS. I don't think there was a year where a team with an argument to be number one was left out of the championship game. Witht eh BCS, if we finished 11-1 with our schedule, there's no way we'd be left out of the top 4. With the selection committee...who knows. The way teams have jumped around does not give me confidence that they have any type of reliable system. The BCS was nice because it balanced computer rankings with polls and ended up with a system better than either of them alone.

[Johnson85]

Truly, how many of you on this board who have seen both teams play this year, would rather face Oregon than FSU?

Oregon has one loss when they were missing 4 starters, to #14 Arizona (by 7 points), just as many wins as FSU, more ranked opponent wins, including:

12-point win over #11 UCLA
19-point win over #12 Mich State
24-point win over #23 Utah

Conversely FSU's ranked wins are:

4-point win over #18 ND, a game they probably should have lost
6-point win over #19 Clemson, another game they probably should have lost

It has been known for some time this committee was not going to simply look at W/L result, but would actually judge teams on who they played and how they played, in wins & losses. Hell, even Uber-FSU man Danny Kanell has started to talk about how FSU has not looked good this year in wins, and how it's a matter of time before it bites them in the butt if they don't start playing like they haven't all season.

All you folks who think it's absolutely ludicrous that Oregon could be ahead should perhaps consider that FSU is barely favored to win versus unranked Miami. There's a lot of money being bet on Miami. Given the way FSU has played, including this past Saturday versus Va at home for their Homecoming, is it really so far-fetched to think FSU has a damn good chance of being 9-1 this coming Saturday, just like Oregon is now? And if that happens, how much farther ahead would you think Oregon should be given the above?

Me, I have no problem seeing how Oregon's 3 wins over #11, #12 & #23 trump FSU's narrow wins over #18 & #19. I also think it's so much better that it washes out the 1 loss they suffered to #14 Arizona when Oregon was missing 4 O-line starters. I saw FSU versus ND. Anybody who did knows that FSU team did not look like the better team that day. Anybody who has watched most of their other games also knows this was not a fluke, or a one-time time thing.

FSU may yet get it together and kick some tail, but they haven't yet, and the rankings aren't about what they might be capable of doing. Winning ugly time-after-time-after-time, and never flat-out dominating a decent opponent is not going to make the committee think they are worthy of #2.

12-point win over #11 UCLA > 4-point win over #18 ND
19-point win over #12 Mich State > 6-point win over #19 Clemson
24-point win over #23 Utah > 11-point win over unranked Louisville

All 3 of Oregon's wins appear to be considerably more impressive. Higher margin of victories versus higher-ranked teams. Oregon was not in much danger of losing those games. FSU needed some good fortune to go along with their ability in order to pull out both their wins versus ranked teams.

I would say the above does more than cancel out a 7-point loss to #14 Arizona, particularly when one looks at the other games played. FSU has even looked vulnerable versus some pretty bad teams, while Oregon has beat the crap out of those type teams.

The difference is FSU has done everything they can to stay in the top two. If you're in a major conference and don't lose, you get the nod over a team with a loss. There may occasionally be times where the Big 10 or ACC is so weak that there is justification for not allowing an undefeated team that didn't go out and schedule legit out of conference games, but this isn't one of those times. While the ACC is not a good conference, FSU is the defending national champion, and has a win over ND (I know they're overrated, but it's still a decent OOC matchup), a win over NCSt. with their backup qb, and decent wins over Clemson and Louisville. None of it has been pretty, but I really don't want a system where MSU gets penalized for playing a lot of backups and teams get penalized for not running the score up.

I really don't

[msstate7]

The difference is FSU has done everything they can to stay in the top two. If you're in a major conference and don't lose, you get the nod over a team with a loss. There may occasionally be times where the Big 10 or ACC is so weak that there is justification for not allowing an undefeated team that didn't go out and schedule legit out of conference games, but this isn't one of those times. While the ACC is not a good conference, FSU is the defending national champion, and has a win over ND (I know they're overrated, but it's still a decent OOC matchup), a win over NCSt. with their backup qb, and decent wins over Clemson and Louisville. None of it has been pretty, but I really don't want a system where MSU gets penalized for playing a lot of backups and teams get penalized for not running the score up.

I really don't

Pretty sure it was Clemson the backup qb beat which is more impressive

[MadDawg]

Also, the Big12 winner is garbage. They don't even have a conference championship game. A two loss SEC team deserves to be in over a conference championship 1-loss Big12 team.

Speculation on Bounds show that the Big 12 might get two teams in the playoff.

[msstate7]

Let's just win this week. If we do, I don't want another sec team to make it.

[CadaverDawg]

Speculation on Bounds show that the Big 12 might get two teams in the playoff.

Zero chance

[msstate7]

Zero chance

If any conference gets 2, it'll be the sec and I doubt we do bc I think we win sat

[jumbo]

all these weekly rankings are good for ratings and what not, but it's going to be 4 conference champions. no conference is getting 2 teams.

[Political Hack]

another winner (mostly).

possibilities:
1- if UGA wins the SECC, the SEC may be phucked. (UGA ain't gettin in)
2- if any of Bammer, OM, or AU lose any game, they are dead.
3- if MSU loses any game badly and is not SECC, they are out (without LSU 07/Bammer 11 type help).

You cats need to win out and not leave it in doubt.

there is zero chance a team that goes 11-1 in the toughests division in the history of college football, has four top ten wins, and arguably the best player in the country is taking snaps for them... and they don't get in. That's absurd.

[Political Hack]

Speculation on Bounds show that the Big 12 might get two teams in the playoff.

I've heard a lot of dumb crap, but this may take the cake.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm curious, if Alabama was 9-0 and visiting MSU on Saturday, would analysts believe they would still be in the playoffs if they loss at MSU and won the Iron Bowl?

[Spider-Man]

a one loss MSU would be western division co-champions. i wonder if that carries more weight than a big 12 co-championship?

[I seen it dawg]

Not saying you're wrong, but based on what? FSU has the talent to beat anybody...they just usually don't crush people. Oregon isn't as talented across the board and plays poor defense. I think FSU would beat Oregon. They are more physical, and play good D when they need to. Neither of them are top of the SEC good imo

They play good def when they need to against garbage. They haven't and won't play anyone worth a shit all yr. at least the PAC 12 has a pulse this year. The way things look we will get to find out in January.

[I seen it dawg]

And the only reason FSU is ranked is from last yr.

[dawgs]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2QviDfIIAEf6H9.png

Looks to me that the committee has a defensible position.

[dawgs]

Also, that chart makes me feel even stronger that an L in a close game @ Bama won't sink us.

GEAUX Tigers! Gig 'em! War Damn!

[Political Hack]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2QviDfIIAEf6H9.png

Looks to me that the committee has a defensible position.

all that says to me is that the Big12, ACC, and Big Ten have no business even being in the conversation. They be better off taking four from the SEC and PAC-12.

[dawgs]

all that says to me is that the Big12, ACC, and Big Ten have no business even being in the conversation. They be better off taking four from the SEC and PAC-12.

Like I followed up, it makes me feel much better about our odds of we lose a close game to Bama.

I don't mind a 1 L team jumping f$u, because if f$u runs the table, they'll get their shot. In fact, it's one of the things I like most about the committee is that they arent married to leaving a team in place until the lose when they repeatedly look like shit. But ultimately the committee ain't costing f$u their playoff spot, they are just making clear they value quality Ws, and if you only have 1-2 quality Ws, you are gonna have a tough time passing a team with 3-4 quality W and 1 "quality" loss.

[CadaverDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2QviDfIIAEf6H9.png

Looks to me that the committee has a defensible position.

Wow, that needs to be sent to anyone questioning our schedule. Even if we only win 1 of Bama/OM, we could be tied for 1st in the country with wins vs the Top 25