ESPN FPI is....

[GTHOM]

The folks at ESPN have out done themselves again fellas, giving State a 26 percent chance to win the game saturday....i know it means absolutely nothing but whoever at ESPN came up with this FPI deal needs their pink slip ASAP. Hard to take ESPN seriously sometimes when they have idiots like Danny Kanell and Joey Galloway spewing the idiotic stuff they say every week

[DLGDawg]

Wonder what aTm's percentage was last Saturday. Anyone see it?

[messageboardsuperhero]

Does ESPN release the formula they used for that?

I'm just genuinely curious as to what goes into it.

[bluelightstar]

Wonder what aTm's percentage was last Saturday. Anyone see it?

FPI gave A&M a 17.4% chance to win. The projections they use on SB Nation gave Auburn a 90%+ chance.

[LiterallyPolice]

The bottom line with models like these is that they often are best fit models of past results, but do a poor job in predicting future outcomes. Look at it this way, if this model actually predicted future results, it would be worth an insane amount of money for sports betting purposes. It wouldn't be published for free on a website.

Almost certainly, this model takes heavily into account Margin of Victory. Well... Bama beat LSU by 7. We beat them by 5. Does anyone on the planet think our game was closer?

[GreenheadDawg]

Predicting the future based on computing stats is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Anyone in the SEC can win on any given day. What was Florida's chances against Georgia? It's already been stated what TAMU's chances were to beat Auburn at home.

[Quaoarsking]

Remember, 1 out of every 4 games it gives 75%-25% on the "upset" should happen or else the probabilities it gives are very bad. The fact there were a couple upsets like Texas A&M over Auburn and Florida over Georgia actually makes the model better than it would be if the favorite always won, regardless of the given probability.

Having said that, I suspect that there are still some 2013 stats and results playing a role, even if minor, which would help explain why Auburn, a team we beat handily and also lost to another team we beat handily, is ranked 9 spots in front of us.

[SDDawg]

Galloway picked State this week...