ESPN gives us a 7% chance of winning out... [Archive]

msstate7

11-04-2014, 10:19 PM

Bama with a 20% chance. Ha. People are insane.

I think bama is more likely to lose last 3 games than to win them.

sleepy dawg

11-04-2014, 10:24 PM

ShotgunDawg

11-04-2014, 10:24 PM

Where do these percentages come from?

Are they objective with a formula or subjective like Vegas odds?

I like our chances much more than 7%. It's like we've become an annoyance to the media's agenda

godlluB

11-04-2014, 10:27 PM

So what they are saying, is that despite the fact that ESPN ranks MSU #1 and Bama #6, Bama will beat MSU.

Can't have it both ways.

IMissJack

11-04-2014, 10:28 PM

In the words of Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber-"So you're saying there's a chance?" 7% is too low in my opinion. I would say 25-30% We will be favored in 2 as of now, and depending on what else happens injury wise maybe 3.

TUSK

11-04-2014, 10:29 PM

can I hear "twenty"? "now fitty".... "semtty-five".... I hear a "hunderd"...

yak

yak

oh,,,,, and, yak

ShotgunDawg

11-04-2014, 10:31 PM

Vegas actually thinks we are good:

Vegas Top Ten: 1) Alabama 2) Miss St 3) Auburn 4) Oregon 5) Florida St 6) TCU 7) Mich St 8) K St 9) Baylor 10) Notre Dame

TUSK

11-04-2014, 10:36 PM

Vegas actually thinks we are good:

Vegas Top Ten: 1) Alabama 2) Miss St 3) Auburn 4) Oregon 5) Florida St 6) TCU 7) Mich St 8) K St 9) Baylor 10) Notre Dame

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

ShotgunDawg

11-04-2014, 10:42 PM

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

For goodness sakes, you realize we beat Auburn by 15 points, right?

For the life of me, I can't understand why you, the media, and everyone else continues to sweep that win under the rug like it never happened. Stop living in the past

CadaverDawg

11-04-2014, 10:42 PM

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

You guys just can't fathom a MS school being better than you, can you?

ShotgunDawg

11-04-2014, 10:49 PM

You guys just can't fathom a MS school being better than you, can you?

It's painfully obvious that they can't. I don't blame Tusk though, every media member agrees with him.

msstate7

11-04-2014, 10:49 PM

Bama's last 4 games vs ranked opponents (at time of game):

Lost to auburn
Lost to Oklahoma
Lost to OM
Beat aTm

Is saban slipping? 3 of bama's last 4 games are vs ranked teams. 2 of them are in top 3

LC Dawg

11-04-2014, 10:52 PM

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

What about at Vaught Hemingway?

Todd4State

11-04-2014, 11:05 PM

ESPN occasionally comes up with meaningless stuff like this. If we beat Alabama, that percentage will go up a good bit. Probably from 7% to 60% or something like that.

maroonmania

11-04-2014, 11:36 PM

For goodness sakes, you realize we beat Auburn by 15 points, right?

For the life of me, I can't understand why you, the media, and everyone else continues to sweep that win under the rug like it never happened. Stop living in the past

Exactly. And people want to talk about our defense but has ANYONE paid attention to the swiss cheese defense Auburn has been playing the last 2 weeks to give up a combined 66 POINTS?? And that is with a ton of red zone stops mixed in against both SC and OM including 2 OM turnovers inside the 10. Not good, not good at all. Auburn is about 6 inches from already being out of the playoff altogether.

Homedawg

11-04-2014, 11:48 PM

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

I really think you add stuff to this board, and bama should beat us at home, but what have they done at this point that makes you come up w this?? I'll get my maroon colored glasses and take them off for a minute, bama and auburn both played ole miss at home we know the results. Next most similar matchup, which aren't similar at all, but trying to help you out, @ksu for auburn and wv at neutral site for bama, both wins....keep going, the resumes aren't even close. You will be favored in T town vs us and auburn and you will be in the playoffs but as of now, your logic is flawed at best.

RougeDawg

11-05-2014, 12:09 AM

dead on, Gun.... I think on a neutral field I'd go: bammer, au, msu, fsu in the top 4....

Huh?? You'd dead on predict that? We buttf*cked AU already. Your Tide lost to a shit 2 loss bear team. Please elaborate.

RougeDawg

11-05-2014, 12:13 AM

You guys just can't fathom a MS school being better than you, can you?

No they can't. Even after Ellis Yeaux gives it to them dry, they'll still don't think we can even hang out jockstraps in Bryant Denny.

sleepy dawg

11-05-2014, 12:36 AM

ESPN occasionally comes up with meaningless stuff like this. If we beat Alabama, that percentage will go up a good bit. Probably from 7% to 60% or something like that.

Did you see my post on where this came from? Because it probably won't go up. I have been watching the fpi all year, and it hasn't changed that much. We have constantly been not even close to being favored against Ole Miss and Bama, and that didn't change this week even after another Ole Miss loss.

dawgs

11-05-2014, 12:59 AM

They're going strictly by the fpi which is clearly a flawed system. It has us a 30.2% chance to beat bama and a 36% chance to beat ole miss.

The fpi has ranked 7th overall.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

How can our remaining SoS be 52nd when we play @#1 and @#3 according to the FPI? I know ut-martin and vandy are shit, but you can't tell me there's more than 1 or 2 other teams with 2 top 10 opponents on the road remaining, much less 2 top 5.

FISHDAWG

11-05-2014, 08:47 AM

Coach34

11-05-2014, 09:02 AM

It comes down to the Rowwww Tiiiiide game. We aren't losing the Egg Bowl

Aces High

11-05-2014, 09:14 AM

[

Aces High

11-05-2014, 09:14 AM

You guys just can't fathom a MS school being better than you, can you?

Not sure how you missed Tusk being a smug asshole with backhanded msu compliments over the years.

Dawgheadcheese

11-05-2014, 09:29 AM

Auburn a 16% chance to win out, and Bama a 20% chance

Thoughts?

Yeah, my thoughts are that we have an 80% chance of winning out if Prescott stays healthy.

notsofarawaydawg

11-05-2014, 09:38 AM

ESPN occasionally comes up with meaningless stuff like this. If we beat Alabama, that percentage will go up a good bit. Probably from 7% to 60% or something like that.

It sells prescriptions *** .. I mean subscriptions.

AlmostPositive

11-05-2014, 09:49 AM

Why in the world wouldn't State's Egg Bowl odds not go up with Tunsil an Treadwell injuries? Those are not your ordinary personnel losses. OM will certainly be without their top offensive weapon and likely to be missing the anchor of their offensive line? Treadwell is worth a TD by himself compared to any replacement.

maroonmania

11-05-2014, 09:50 AM

It comes down to the Rowwww Tiiiiide game. We aren't losing the Egg Bowl

Hope that ends up being correct but recent history says the road team doesn't win the Egg Bowl unless the home team has thrown in the towel for the season. We will have to break that trend to win up there.

boarmassage

11-05-2014, 10:05 AM

Hope that ends up being correct but recent history says the road team doesn't win the Egg Bowl unless the home team has thrown in the towel for the season. We will have to break that trend to win up there.

The good news is that we have been breaking a lot of trends this year so far.

Maroonthirteen

11-05-2014, 10:10 AM

I just had a chance to watch the AU/OM game this morning. Tredwell kept them in that game. I think it will cost them 2tds a game with him out.

thedawg

11-05-2014, 10:14 AM

None of this shit matters... We are gonna line up and win or we are not.. I would love to know what Auburns chances of winning them all the Cam year were... they just kept showing up and taking care of business... screw everybody and their percentages... I believe Dak will find a way...

MadDawg

11-05-2014, 10:18 AM

Who the hell has Bama beaten? Seriously?

There are 5 really good teams in the SECW. If you are one of the five, you play four games against the other teams. So far....

MSU is 2-0 (W @ LSU, W Auburn)
OM is 1-2 (W Bama, L @ LSU, L Auburn)
Auburn is 2-1 (W @ OM, W LSU, L @ MSU)
Alabama is 0-1 (L @ OM)

Yeah, Bama is scary good, aren't they?

smootness

11-05-2014, 12:36 PM

Hope that ends up being correct but recent history says the road team doesn't win the Egg Bowl unless the home team has thrown in the towel for the season. We will have to break that trend to win up there.

Well, recent history also says we don't beat anybody good, don't have a respectable QB much less a Heisman frontrunner, and don't ever think about sniffing #1 in the country.

Just sayin'.