Let's talk College Football Playoff. Current and Projection

[Miss. Stake]

First and foremost. It is great to be in control of your own destiny. We have put ourselves in an outstanding spot and it's gonna be a hell of a fun November.

CFB playoff committee will unveil top 4 tomorrow. Here's what I project

1) MSU
2)FSU
3)Auburn
4)Oregon
5) Alabama

You can say what you want about the 4 and 5 spot with Oregon and Bama (such as Bama would be favored over Oregon on neutral field right now). But the committee had Bama at 6 and Oregon at 5 last week. Oregon had a big win over an opponent that has caused them trouble in the past and Bama had a bye. Bamas resume isn't that great at this point.

Now to projection. This is college football, mayhem will happen. I'm not going to get real murky and into 2 loss teams now or projecting positioning of 2 loss teams and where they end up. (even though it will probably end up happening)

I'm also going to simplify this further (maybe unfairly but we can't get too crazy with scenarios or your head can start spinning). FSU and Oregon both run the table (Both of these things have the greatest probability of happening) and since the point of this is to examine Mississippi State and our standing, we're assuming we beat UT Martin and Vandy (virtual guarantees)

So IN the CFB playoff is FSU and Oregon.

I want you to keep in mind that there are 3 key "buzzword" phrases that we've heard the CFP committee use in their determination of teams. Overall Resume, Head to Head, Conference championships. Obviously there is more, but those are the 3 most used terms I've heard.

What's really intriguing is the Big 12. Let's look at the 3 one loss Big 12 teams and their remaining schedules

KSU

@ TCU
@ WVU
vs Kansas
@ Baylor

OK, That is one brutal stretch to end the season. I would say there's no way KSU finishes that gauntlet 4-0. IF THEY DO. KSU is IN THE 4 team playoff (with a Big 12 conference championship title and very impressive road wins, their 1 loss resume would beat a 1 loss Mississippi State in the committees eyes even though their 1 loss would come to a team that we beat imo.. however this would be very very close call)

TCU

vs KSU
@ Kansas
@ Texas
vs Iowa State

Easiest remaining schedule of the 3 one loss Big 12 teams. They beat KSU this weekend, it is very likely they win out. They have a "good" 1 loss @ Baylor that they should have won. However, they do not control their own destiny in the Big 12. TCU wins out and Baylor wins out. Baylor wins the head to head tiebreaker. TCU is then eliminated from playoff contention (in my projection)

Baylor

@ OU
vs Okie State
vs texas tech
vs KSU

Pretty tough schedule to end it, but definitely doable for Baylor. Baylor wins out and they win the Big 12. They would have an impressive resume and really be a close call to be in playoff.

So, out of those 1 loss teams in the Big 12, I think Baylor has the best shot to make the CFB Playoff. KSU controls its own destiny for a spot in the CFP, but they won't go 4-0 with that remaining schedule.

OK so CFP (in no particular order)

FSU
Oregon
(SEC Championship game winner)
4th spot.

Who gets the 4th spot? We get to win the SEC Championship game were in so who cares.

Bama wins out and we beat OM we are now 11-1 and don't win our division.

So NOW you have an 11-1 MSU team who does not win their division or conference versus a 1 loss Baylor team (BIG 12 winner) versus 1 loss Michigan State (BIG 10 Winner). Who's in?

THe Biggest question is how much will the committee value a Conference Championship. Overall Resume versus Conference championship I think is what it will come down to win the committee makes their final decision. We're getting an idea now about they value overal resume, but we won't know just how much they value conference championship games until all games are played.

LET's BEAT BAMA!

[CadaverDawg]

I think in that situation, we would NOT get in because the loss to Bama would be fresh on their minds. Unless we lost a nail biter in Tuscaloosa.

If we're going to lose a game, it actually helps us more if it's OM that we lose to. Just beat Bama and then beat the East champ and we are in the playoff. OR we will need Bama to lose to Auburn if we lose to them. Beat Bama and nothing else will matter

[curmudgeon]

If we want to make the playoff as a one loss team, we'd better hope that FSU, Oregon, or the TCU-K-State winner loses a game down the stretch.

[Miss. Stake]

I think in that situation, we would NOT get in because the loss to Bama would be fresh on their minds. Unless we lost a nail biter in Tuscaloosa.

If we're going to lose a game, it actually helps us more if it's OM that we lose to. Just beat Bama and then beat the East champ and we are in the playoff. OR we will need Bama to lose to Auburn if we lose to them. Beat Bama and nothing else will matter

Keep in mind CFP committee had OM @ 4 right after a Loss @ LSU. Immediate/end of season losses don't matter to this committee. It's overall resume and they've already shown with just 1 poll by putting OM @ 4 that is what theyre doing

[Miss. Stake]

If we want to make the playoff as a one loss team, we'd better hope that FSU, Oregon, or the TCU-K-State winner loses a game down the stretch.

an FSU loss and they are OUT. Arizona State WINS OUT with a PAC 12 championship title. They are IN. IMO.

[Political Hack]

If we lose to Bama and beat Ole Miss, here's what happens... Either Auburn beats Bama, and we have 1 loss and go to the SECCG. Win that, and we are in. Or Bama beats Auburn, and our 1-loss is to the SEC Champion, and we are the clear front runner for being the 2nd SEC team, at which point we're likely in as the 2nd highest rated 1-loss team.

K-State has about a snowball's chance in hell at being in since they lost to Auburn at home. The best thing for us is for Auburn and KState to win out, because that gives us our best chance to stay ahead of everyone else in the SEC and the Big12. If we lose one game to Bama, we will be the 2nd highest ranked 1-loss team, which should get us in.

[Miss. Stake]

If we lose to Bama and beat Ole Miss, here's what happens... Either Auburn beats Bama, and we have 1 loss and go to the SECCG. Win that, and we are in. Or Bama beats Auburn, and our 1-loss is to the SEC Champion, and we are the clear front runner for being the 2nd SEC team, at which point we're likely in as the 2nd highest rated 1-loss team.

K-State has about a snowball's chance in hell at being in since they lost to Auburn at home. The best thing for us is for Auburn and KState to win out, because that gives us our best chance to stay ahead of everyone else in the SEC and the Big12. If we lose one game to Bama, we will be the 2nd highest ranked 1-loss team, which should get us in.

I agree we would have the best 1 loss resume outside of the SEC champion (be it BAMA) but we would be missing a key component. Conference championship. I think the committee takes a 1 loss Big 12 champion over us. Any sort of FSU loss and we're good. I do not think the committee takes a 1 loss B1G champion or a 1 loss FSU over us.

Straight up comparison against an 11-1 MSU team (with 1 loss to Bama)

1 loss Big 12 champion (will rank ahead of MSU)
1 loss Pac 12 champion (If it's Oregon, will rank ahead of MSU.. if it's ASU then its a toss up but i think committee will give ASU the edge due to conference championship)
1 loss Big 10 champion ( will NOT rank ahead of MSU)
1 loss ACC champion aka FSU (will NOT rank ahead of MSU)

Basically my speculation revolves around the fact that I think the committee is going to use Conference Champion as a big factor.

[curmudgeon]

If K-State wins the Big XII, they are in. Wouldn't doubt if they are #7 (playing #6 this week) when the new CFP poll comes out.

My projection:

1. MSU
2. Florida State
3. Auburn
4. Oregon
5. Alabama
6. TCU
7. Kansas State
8. Michigan State
9. Notre Dame
10. Arizona
11. Baylor
12. Arizona State
13. Nebraska
14. Ohio State

Those are the only teams I think that can make the College Football Playoff. Down to 14 teams. It will be at least 12 after this week, barring any upsets. Watch out Oregon at Utah.

Obviously, the top 4 simply have to win.

Alabama has two opportunities (MSU and Auburn) to move into the top 4. Their problem is the Ole Miss loss is going to have them going all or nothing. They have to beat both MSU and Auburn to make the playoff.

TCU/Kansas State - winner is still in the race. Loser is out.

-------------- This is where a 1 loss Mississippi State falls

Michigan State - must run the table, win the B1G and might need an Oregon stumble down the stretch.

-------------- this is where a 1 loss Florida State falls

Notre Dame - in prime position to sneak in as the #4 seed. How? Not very far fetched - win out + anyone but Michigan State wins the B1G + the TCU/Kansas State winner loses. Please baby Jesus, let this happen if we are the #1 seed. Beating Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl would be glorious.

Arizona/Arizona State - if one of these teams wins the Pac 12. ASU has a shot at Notre Dame as well as Arizona. But Zona has beaten Oregon. If Zona were to win out and win the Pac 12, that would be two wins over Oregon and a 12-1 record against Notre Dame or Michigan State's resume. ASU sort of the same, plus they would haven beaten Notre Dame.

Baylor - would have to win the Big 12, which means they need a TCU loss + some losses by Notre Dame, Michigan State and both Arizona schools.

Nebraska/Ohio State - two B1G teams that no one is talking about. If Ohio State beats Michigan State Saturday, Michigan State is eliminated, and Ohio State becomes the favorite to win the B1G. Nebraska could win out and knock out Ohio State in Indianapolis. But either are probably behind Notre Dame, the KSU-TCU winner and the Arizona schools in the pecking order.

[DudyDawg]

Arizona just lost to ucla.

[codeDawg]

Just beat Bama

Yes.

[Political Hack]

I agree we would have the best 1 loss resume outside of the SEC champion (be it BAMA) but we would be missing a key component. Conference championship. I think the committee takes a 1 loss Big 12 champion over us. Any sort of FSU loss and we're good. I do not think the committee takes a 1 loss B1G champion or a 1 loss FSU over us.

Straight up comparison against an 11-1 MSU team (with 1 loss to Bama)

1 loss Big 12 champion (will rank ahead of MSU)
1 loss Pac 12 champion (If it's Oregon, will rank ahead of MSU.. if it's ASU then its a toss up but i think committee will give ASU the edge due to conference championship)
1 loss Big 10 champion ( will NOT rank ahead of MSU)
1 loss ACC champion aka FSU (will NOT rank ahead of MSU)

Basically my speculation revolves around the fact that I think the committee is going to use Conference Champion as a big factor.

they can't put a 1-loss KState ahead of Auburna and they can't put a 1-loss Auburn ahead of us. If Auburn and KState keep winning, we're almost certainly in barring a 2nd loss.

[Miss. Stake]

If K-State wins the Big XII, they are in. Wouldn't doubt if they are #7 (playing #6 this week) when the new CFP poll comes out.

My projection:

1. MSU
2. Florida State
3. Auburn
4. Oregon
5. Alabama
6. TCU
7. Kansas State
8. Michigan State
9. Notre Dame
10. Arizona
11. Baylor
12. Arizona State
13. Nebraska
14. Ohio State

Those are the only teams I think that can make the College Football Playoff. Down to 14 teams. It will be at least 12 after this week, barring any upsets. Watch out Oregon at Utah.

Obviously, the top 4 simply have to win.

Alabama has two opportunities (MSU and Auburn) to move into the top 4. Their problem is the Ole Miss loss is going to have them going all or nothing. They have to beat both MSU and Auburn to make the playoff.

TCU/Kansas State - winner is still in the race. Loser is out.

-------------- This is where a 1 loss Mississippi State falls

Michigan State - must run the table, win the B1G and might need an Oregon stumble down the stretch.

-------------- this is where a 1 loss Florida State falls

Notre Dame - in prime position to sneak in as the #4 seed. How? Not very far fetched - win out + anyone but Michigan State wins the B1G + the TCU/Kansas State winner loses. Please baby Jesus, let this happen if we are the #1 seed. Beating Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl would be glorious.

Arizona/Arizona State - if one of these teams wins the Pac 12. ASU has a shot at Notre Dame as well as Arizona. But Zona has beaten Oregon. If Zona were to win out and win the Pac 12, that would be two wins over Oregon and a 12-1 record against Notre Dame or Michigan State's resume. ASU sort of the same, plus they would haven beaten Notre Dame.

Baylor - would have to win the Big 12, which means they need a TCU loss + some losses by Notre Dame, Michigan State and both Arizona schools.

Nebraska/Ohio State - two B1G teams that no one is talking about. If Ohio State beats Michigan State Saturday, Michigan State is eliminated, and Ohio State becomes the favorite to win the B1G. Nebraska could win out and knock out Ohio State in Indianapolis. But either are probably behind Notre Dame, the KSU-TCU winner and the Arizona schools in the pecking order.

1 loss Notre Dame does not beat out a 1 loss (@ Bama) Miss state (AS LONG AS we don't get blown out at Bama). Why? Because neither team would have a conference championship and we would have better overall resume in the committees eyes bc we are in SEC West.

Arizona has 2 losses. In our 1 loss speculation, they are already out.

tOSU is OUT. Horrible loss @ home to Va tech.
Nebraska is OUT. Terribly weak schedule.

[mic]

A one loss MSU trumps any other one loss team ( except bama if the beat us).. And that includes auburn..

[Miss. Stake]

they can't put a 1-loss KState ahead of Auburna and they can't put a 1-loss Auburn ahead of us. If Auburn and KState keep winning, we're almost certainly in barring a 2nd loss.

This is the most intriguing comparison is if KSU wins out. You would have all 3 "buzzword" committee phrases in play. Head to Head, Conference championships, and overall resume. If it came down to a WHOS IN situation between a 1 loss (Undefeated Big 12 champion) KSU and 1 loss (@Bama) MSU. I think they give KSU the edge because of the undefeated Big 12 conference championship, even though their 1 loss would be to a team we beat by 15.

[CadaverDawg]

I don't want it left up to the committee or I feel certain we will be screwed. Especially since they will have already seen us play another playoff team and lose. Trust me, we're fuked if we lose to Bama and they win out. We need to throw everything we've got at beating Bama. Whatever. it. Takes. Win that one, and we are all but in the playoffs regardless of the OM game.

[Political Hack]

This is the most intriguing comparison is if KSU wins out. You would have all 3 "buzzword" committee phrases in play. Head to Head, Conference championships, and overall resume. If it came down to a WHOS IN situation between a 1 loss (Undefeated Big 12 champion) KSU and 1 loss (@Bama) MSU. I think they give KSU the edge because of the undefeated Big 12 conference championship, even though their 1 loss would be to a team we beat by 15.

there is zero chance KState is ranked ahead of Auburn and zero chance Auburn is ranked ahead of us. Conference championships don't matter when the teams have faced exch other.

[Spider-Man]

there is zero chance KState is ranked ahead of Auburn and zero chance Auburn is ranked ahead of us. Conference championships don't matter when the teams have faced exch other.

I agree with you. If it came down to Auburn, Kansas State, and Mississippi State for the final spot. It would only be logical to rank it MSU [1-0], AUB [1-1], KSU [0-1].

[DawgPoundtheRock]

This shit is giving me a headache.

[Political Hack]

I agree with you. If it came down to Auburn, Kansas State, and Mississippi State for the final spot. It would only be logical to rank it MSU [1-0], AUB [1-1], KSU [0-1].

there will be 2, maybe 3, 1-loss teams by the time it comes down to it. Also, doesn't the Big12 not have a conference championship game? That's not going to help them any either.

I'm pretty damn certain the Big10 and Big12 are out of it. ACC will be too if FSU gets a loss.

[Miss. Stake]

I agree with you. If it came down to Auburn, Kansas State, and Mississippi State for the final spot. It would only be logical to rank it MSU [1-0], AUB [1-1], KSU [0-1].

but in this scenario (eliminating 2 loss teams) this can't happen. Because we would win the SEC championship game.

[smootness]

but in this scenario (eliminating 2 loss teams) this can't happen. Because we would win the SEC championship game.

Yep