MSU fans celebrate: I think we get a mulligan between Bama & OM

[ShotgunDawg]

Here is what we should have learned tonight:

1. The Committee is looking at things objectively. Quality of wins and losses matter. This helps MSU immensely. Auburn win is the best win of any team this year.

2. LSU on a Saturday night is a damn hard place to play. Ole Miss wasn't effected by this loss. Conversly, it means MSU has another great win. Can't be both ways.

3. Head to head matters. This also helps us and promoted objectivity.

4. Committee isn't scared to vote 2+ SEC teams in top 4. Who knows if they'll do it in the final poll, but today's poll is encouraging.

What this means?

It means that a loss on the road to Bama or OM can be absorbed by MSU, so long as we win one as well and don't get blown out by Bama. Do that and a one loss MSU team has the best wins in college football this year and also a great loss. Objectively, we should be in the playoff, so long as we beat UGA in the SEC title game. If we lose to Bama and don't make the SECCG, then I believe a win at OM puts us right back in the 4 spot. Our resume would simply be too good.

Who do we cheer for?

1. Cheer for whoever you want in the SEC West. There is positive for us in every direction.

2. Cheer for Auburn when they play UGA. We need that win to continue to be respected.

3. Cheer against all one loss teams, except Auburn. It only helps us if non SEC one loss teams lose. We need some teams to clear out.

4. Cheer for FSU to lose a game. If they do, they're done and they take ND with them.

5. Cheer that we go 12-0 and none of this matters.

We are in an outstanding position and probably the only team in college football that can absorb a loss and still make the playoff.

[IMissJack]

Agree, if we lose close to one of OM or Bama, I think we are still in.

[msstate7]

This week's ideal outcomes:

Louisville over Fsu
Auburn over OM
Stanford over Oregon

[LiterallyPolice]

Good point about absorbing a loss. That's the key.... Not only do we "control our own destiny" (I really hate that phrase) but we also potentially have a mulligan.

[yjnkdawg]

This week's ideal outcomes:

Louisville over Fsu
Auburn over OM
Stanford over Oregon

+1

[Mjoelner34]

Here is what we should have learned tonight:

1. The Committee is looking at things objectively. Quality of wins and losses matter. This helps MSU immensely. Auburn win is the best win of any team this year.

2. LSU on a Saturday night is a damn hard place to play. Ole Miss wasn't effected by this loss. Conversly, it means MSU has another great win. Can't be both ways.

3. Head to head matters. This also helps us and promoted objectivity.

4. Committee isn't scared to vote 2+ SEC teams in top 4. Who knows if they'll do it in the final poll, but today's poll is encouraging.

What this means?

It means that a loss on the road to Bama or OM can be absorbed by MSU, so long as we win one as well and don't get blown out by Bama. Do that and a one loss MSU team has the best wins in college football this year and also a great loss. Objectively, we should be in the playoff, so long as we beat UGA in the SEC title game. If we lose to Bama and don't make the SECCG, then I believe a win at OM puts us right back in the 4 spot. Our resume would simply be too good.

Who do we cheer for?

1. Cheer for whoever you want in the SEC West. There is positive for us in every direction.

2. Cheer for Auburn when they play UGA. We need that win to continue to be respected.

3. Cheer against all one loss teams, except Auburn. It only helps us if non SEC one loss teams lose. We need some teams to clear out.

4. Cheer for FSU to lose a game. If they do, they're done and they take ND with them.

5. Cheer that we go 12-0 and none of this matters.

We are in an outstanding position and probably the only team in college football that can absorb a loss and still make the playoff.

^^^THIS^^^ I was thinking all of the exact same things but couldn't quite manage to change jumbled thoughts in my head into coherent sentences. Thank you and nice job.

[SDDawg]

Bravo, excellent post.

[Dawgface]

The biggest problem we could have is how bad a loss we might have. The bama game is one that I could see get a way from us. Obviously I hope we win and think there is a chance if we are on our A game, but if we are not and they are on theirs.......it might not be pretty. Then a 11-1 record might not be enough.

[ShotgunDawg]

The biggest problem we could have is how bad a loss we might have. The bama game is one that I could see get a way from us. Obviously I hope we win and think there is a chance if we are on our A game, but if we are not and they are on theirs.......it might not be pretty. Then a 11-1 record might not be enough.


This would be an interesting situation. I agree that it would be in our best interest to at least keep it close, but I wonder if we are still thinking in "AP/Coaches Poll" mentality by saying that?

We have precedent for how the Playoff Committee is thinking and that is the NCAA Tournament selection. In the NCAA tournament margin of victory is not part of the selection process. It's all about "Body of Work". Who you beat and who you lost to.

From an objective standpoint, if MSU beats Ole Miss or Alabama, then MSU has the best "Body of Work" of anyone in college football this year, and it's not close, unless Auburn wins out and we beat them.

I think what people are having trouble with is wrapping their mind around how objective the committee was. We aren't used to this in college football, but it heavily plays in the SEC's favor because we have more of a chance to build a strong resume, just like the ACC and Big East used to in basketball.

[MetEdDawg]

I think what we saw last night is that teams outside of the SEC are going to HAVE to schedule difficult non conference opponents or multiple Power 5 non conference opponents.

The SEC is always going to be strong, but you can see that having 3 teams in the Top 4 from the SEC shows they value strength of schedule. Since we get a built in bump from in conference, other big time teams are going to have to schedule big in their nonconference to get the same kind of respect we do.

And you can see that Auburn clearly is getting the respect for going on the road and beating a good KSU team. That's why they will be in this thing to the end if they've got one loss because they have the benefit of a difficult non conference opponent and got that win on the road. I think this is what the NCAA wanted anyways but now the committee seems pretty clear that they are moving towards who you beat, how you beat them, who you lost to and how you lost to them.

[FlabLoser]

Go Tigers!

Ole Miss needs another loss and we've got a tiebreaker over the Plaintigers.

The Bengal Tigers need to win the next weekend, putting a 2nd L on Bama.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

The biggest problem we could have is how bad a loss we might have. The bama game is one that I could see get a way from us. Obviously I hope we win and think there is a chance if we are on our A game, but if we are not and they are on theirs.......it might not be pretty. Then a 11-1 record might not be enough.

I could be wrong, but I don't see that happening. We haven't really started slow on offense this whole year and we've been competitive in a lot of games with them until halftime, but end up losing by a ton due to lack of depth. I think this year's squad is deep enough on the d-line to go in there and pull out a close victory. We've got to limit their big plays on offense and make them drive the ball down the field.

[Dawgheadcheese]

The biggest problem we could have is how bad a loss we might have. The bama game is one that I could see get a way from us. Obviously I hope we win and think there is a chance if we are on our A game, but if we are not and they are on theirs.......it might not be pretty. Then a 11-1 record might not be enough.

Alabama has won one impressive game - and that was against TAM and they laid down completely. Anybody can see that Alabama and MSU are playing at a comparable level - personally, if we are healthy, I think we are better this year. So, if like you say it ends up "not pretty", then to be honest, we didn't take care of business and we deserve whatever we get.

[Liverpooldawg]

I doubt there will be any mulligans. This was the first poll and they looked at your entire body of work so far. My guess is they will act like the other polls now. If you lose you will fall and have to work your way back up. If you lose late you have no time to work back up. There certainly won't be any mulligans if you have the same number of losses as say, Alabama, and they beat you head to head. That's what that poll says to me.

[ShotgunDawg]

I doubt there will be any mulligans. This was the first poll and they looked at your entire body of work so far. My guess is they will act like the other polls now. If you lose you will fall and have to work your way back up. If you lose late you have no time to work back up. There certainly won't be any mulligans if you have the same number of losses as say, Alabama, and they beat you head to head. That's what that poll says to me.

This isn't what they did last night. Ole Miss lost this weekend and was still #4. You are thinking in the archaic "AP Poll" format. The College Football committee is thinking the "NCAA Basketball Tournament" format, where it doesn't matter when you lose. Your resume and body of work is what matters.

Again, we will have to see how things shake out week to week, but there is no evidence thus far to support your claim. The evidence currently available supports the idea that MSU has a mulligan between Bama and Ole Miss.

You are correct in that, if Bama beats us, and finishes with 1 loss, we will not finish ahead of them. However, if MSU beats Ole Miss following that Bama loss, MSU would likely be the 2nd SEC team in the playoff, since MSU's resume would be by far the best of any 1 loss team.

No other team could match MSU winning against Auburn, LSU, and at Ole Miss, and losing at Alabama. That's 3 good wins and one great loss

[Johnson85]

This isn't what they did last night. Ole Miss lost this weekend and was still #4.

I think you're reading too much into that. Right now, we're early enough in the season that nobody really has resumes that can compete with the SEC West. Ole Miss has a win over BAma that is better than any other 1 loss team and a loss in Death Valley at night, which is not a bad loss. Auburn has a non-conference win over KState on the road and their only loss is to us on the road, not a bad loss. As other schedules fill out, other one loss teams will have some chances to add good wins to their resume, so they will be more of a threat to move up.

More importantly, any team we lose too will likely be a one loss team that jumps us by beating us. Then you have an Auburn team that if it keeps one loss, will have the most impressive resume in the country, so that's another team that jumps us. Then you have some 1 loss teams that will add conference championships. If the best teams keep catching losses, then we'll be able to survive a loss, but if we lose one late, there is a very good chance that we will find ourselves out of the top 4.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think you're reading too much into that. Right now, we're early enough in the season that nobody really has resumes that can compete with the SEC West. Ole Miss has a win over BAma that is better than any other 1 loss team and a loss in Death Valley at night, which is not a bad loss. Auburn has a non-conference win over KState on the road and their only loss is to us on the road, not a bad loss. As other schedules fill out, other one loss teams will have some chances to add good wins to their resume, so they will be more of a threat to move up.

More importantly, any team we lose too will likely be a one loss team that jumps us by beating us. Then you have an Auburn team that if it keeps one loss, will have the most impressive resume in the country, so that's another team that jumps us. Then you have some 1 loss teams that will add conference championships. If the best teams keep catching losses, then we'll be able to survive a loss, but if we lose one late, there is a very good chance that we will find ourselves out of the top 4.

Fair enough, but I don't agree. A one loss MSU team would have victories over LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss or Alabama with a loss at Ole Miss or Alabama. That resume is infinitely better than any other 1 loss team's resume

[Covercorner2]

It will be interesting to see how much WHEN you lose plays a factor. Losing late in the season has played a big factor in the past...

[Liverpooldawg]

Again, it was the first poll and they looked at your whole body of work. From here on I bet they operate like the rest of them. Until we find a way to take ALL polls out of it it's going to suck.

[ShotgunDawg]

It will be interesting to see how much WHEN you lose plays a factor. Losing late in the season has played a big factor in the past...

But... This has nothing to do with the past. This a completely different system that more closely resembles the NCAA basketball selection than it does the BCS.

[bulldawg28]

WAMS mindset is ridiculous. Fawk Bama we're beating them and Ole Miss.

[Johnson85]

Fair enough, but I don't agree. A one loss MSU team would have victories over LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss or Alabama with a loss at Ole Miss or Alabama. That resume is infinitely better than any other 1 loss team's resume

If Auburn finishes with one loss, they will have the best resume in the country unless we go undefeated. Road wins at KSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, and UGA and then a home win against LSU with a loss to MSU on the road. If we go undefeated, we'll have road wins against Ole Miss, Bama, and LSU and a home win against Auburn. Ignoring the fact that we beat them head to head, and their resume is not too far behind ours even with us going undefeated. You take away a road win against Bama or UM, and give us a loss, and their resume is clearly better; all we have to fall back on is head to head.

If Bama finishes with one loss, they will have a home win against Auburn and MSU, and neutral site win against WVU, versus us having a home win against Auburn, and a road win against UM. That's pretty comparable except they will have the head to head.

If UM finishes with one loss, they will have home wins against Bama, Auburn, and MSU. They wouldn't have a road win like ours against Bama and LSU, but they would have the head to head. So I think just in the SEC West, anuy one loss team will have a comparable resume to MSU or better in the case of Auburn. I don't think there will be more than one, one-loss team in the West other than MSU, but for any team that makes it out of the SEC W with one loss, they're going to have a very good resume, just like a one loss MSU would.

[Liverpooldawg]

But... This has nothing to do with the past. This a completely different system that more closely resembles the NCAA basketball selection than it does the BCS.

Does it now? I don't think we know that yet. Anything on this is just speculation at this point, mine included. I don't think it resembles basketball much at all. The basketball committee never releases anything until they release the bracket. That was the way this should have been done too.

[maroonmania]

The biggest problem we could have is how bad a loss we might have. The bama game is one that I could see get a way from us. Obviously I hope we win and think there is a chance if we are on our A game, but if we are not and they are on theirs.......it might not be pretty. Then a 11-1 record might not be enough.

If we play 1Bs in the secondary much at all Cooper could easily have 250 yards receiving against us.

[Spiderman]

Main thing is to win this week and then you can go into Oxford 10-1, as long as the 1 is to Bama, and you are still in very good shape. 11-0 will be fine too.

[NewTweederEndzoneDance]

If this season plays out like every single other season always does, then the majority of the 1 loss teams will add another loss to their resume. The chance of a 1 loss SEC team getting left out of the playoff is virtually nil.