Some MSU Secondary Truth

[BeastMan]

Since the narrative amongst rivals and the talking heads that don't do research is that MSU's secondary is the weakness, I wanted to clear that up with data that tells the whole story.

Why they say MSU secondary isn't good
-Last in the SEC in passing defense, 308 ypg
-they cite the 1st 3 games, particularly UAB where MSU gave up 435 passing yards.

Why those 2 reasons are flawed
-Passing yards against does not tell the full story of defending the pass. It's just a piece of the puzzle. Yardage does not equal points or even success.
-how much stock do people want to put in easy OOC games? Does giving up passing yards in those games mean anything? Does OM struggling vs Memphis mean anything? How much did A&M steam-rolling Lamar, Rice, and SMU matter?

MSU secondary stats that reflect how they are playing
-MSU leads the SEC in passes defended with 43 (7.17 per game)
-MSU is 2nd in SEC in PBUs with 32, only 1 behind Arky who has played 1 more game.
-MSU is 3rd in SEC in INTs with 11
-MSU is 2nd in the SEC in opponents completion percentage with 52.3%
-MSU's opponents are throwing the ball 44 times per game. That's 8 away from the next closest (Ole Miss).


When you look at the stats that I point out, it shows a defense that is forcing teams to throw the ball and in turn, covering well. Opponents are averaging going 23/44, 308 yards, 1.8 TD, and 1.8 INT per game. If you force that stat line every week, you're doing just fine. Next time a talking head or rival tells you how soft the passing defense is, just point them to this data.

[Homedawg]

Good analysis. Too add why wouldn't opponents throw the ball? They know its tough sledding running it, so you gone the "easier" option.

[CadaverDawg]

Hell yes, Beast. Excellent stats.

That avg per game stat line is also aided by about 200 yds and 2-3 TD's vs LSU against prevent. Our pass D is a disrespected monster right now

[Todd4State]

It's incredible to me how much stock people put into the UAB game. Anyone that watched that game knew that was a fluke. When you connect on three long passes and each one goes for a 50+ yard TD, that's not normal for any offense. I believe about half of UAB's total yardage came on those three plays alone.

But it's like these people don't pay attention to the rest of the games.

I expect our numbers to improve or level out the second half of the season. Many of the teams we had to play the first half of the season throw the ball a ton of have very mobile QB's. Kentucky is pretty balanced. Arkansas and Alabama like to run the ball and I expect that they are going to try to against us. UT-Martin and Vanderbilt it doesn't matter what they try to do against us. Ole Miss is pass heavy and I expect them to come out throwing.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Teams are having to throw the ball a ridiculous amount against us every game. That's what happens when you have an 18-20 point fourth quarter lead in every game you play, not to mention the fact that nobody (except for Auburn on occasion) has been able to generate a halfway consistent running game on us. This is leading to a bunch of garbage yards and points through the air that are inflating those passing defense numbers by a significant amount.

I saw a stat the other day where of the 11 passing TDs we've given up all year, 6 of them have come in the fourth quarter of games with us having multiple score leads- and a couple of the others came on long bombs vs. UAB.

Our pas defense hasn't been lights out, but it's not nearly as bad as some people are trying to make it out to be.

[War Machine Dawg]

http://i.imgur.com/zOVqcKz.gif

[Tdawg]

This is spot on--which is why you should use Football Outsiders for your team and unit rankings. Their S&P rate ours as the #7 pass defense in the country, because they look at more than yards

[Political Hack]

glad someone else is paying attention. thanks Beast.

[sandwolf]

I believe about half of UAB's total yardage came on those three plays alone.

Yep, pretty much. UAB had 548 total yards. 297 of those yards came on 4 passes that went for 88, 81, 75 and 53 yards.

[thf24]

It's incredible to me how much stock people put into the UAB game. Anyone that watched that game knew that was a fluke. When you connect on three long passes and each one goes for a 50+ yard TD, that's not normal for any offense. I believe about half of UAB's total yardage came on those three plays alone.

That's been my argument when it comes up. It's hard to hit those throws uncovered without pads in warm ups unless you're a future NFL QB, but they somehow hit three against coverage ranging from at least there to tight, plus two or three more long, almost-as-improbable throws. It was just that kind of day for them.

[Leroy Jenkins]

We have had a 20 point lead in EVERY game. Opponents have to throw, that's just how it is. Whatever.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

I saw a stat the other day where of the 11 passing TDs we've given up all year, 6 of them have come in the fourth quarter of games
I saw the same stat or one similar...this one said 6 out of 11 TD's were given up in the last 2:29 in fourth quarter of games.

[Todd4State]

I saw the same stat or one similar...this one said 6 out of 11 TD's were given up in the last 2:29 in fourth quarter of games.

And that would also not include two of UAB's TD's that were thrown before the 2:29 mark if my memory serves me correctly.

[ScoobaDawg]

http://i.imgur.com/zOVqcKz.gif

http://i.imgur.com/Ej8Oyf8.gif

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/minions_fangirling_despicable_me.gif


CANT STOP WONT STOP

http://fc08.deviantart.net/fs71/f/2013/207/4/b/despicable_me___minions_08_by_wonderfuday-d6f9gn0.gif

[War Machine Dawg]

I love the Minions. Go ahead, make fun. Don't care.

[ScoobaDawg]

I love the Minions. Go ahead, make fun. Don't care.

HELL NO man..no making fun, my gf made me watch it..its great.

[War Machine Dawg]

HELL NO man..no making fun, my gf made me watch it..its great.

Haha, wasn't meaning you. That was for the board in general. The Minions are awesome. And I'm totally stealing 2/3 of your Minion gifs. Already have the 2nd one.

[TUSK]

Since the narrative amongst rivals and the talking heads that don't do research is that MSU's secondary is the weakness, I wanted to clear that up with data that tells the whole story.

Why they say MSU secondary isn't good
-Last in the SEC in passing defense, 308 ypg
-they cite the 1st 3 games, particularly UAB where MSU gave up 435 passing yards.

Why those 2 reasons are flawed
-Passing yards against does not tell the full story of defending the pass. It's just a piece of the puzzle. Yardage does not equal points or even success.
-how much stock do people want to put in easy OOC games? Does giving up passing yards in those games mean anything? Does OM struggling vs Memphis mean anything? How much did A&M steam-rolling Lamar, Rice, and SMU matter?

MSU secondary stats that reflect how they are playing
-MSU leads the SEC in passes defended with 43 (7.17 per game)
-MSU is 2nd in SEC in PBUs with 32, only 1 behind Arky who has played 1 more game.
-MSU is 3rd in SEC in INTs with 11
-MSU is 2nd in the SEC in opponents completion percentage with 52.3%
-MSU's opponents are throwing the ball 44 times per game. That's 8 away from the next closest (Ole Miss).


When you look at the stats that I point out, it shows a defense that is forcing teams to throw the ball and in turn, covering well. Opponents are averaging going 23/44, 308 yards, 1.8 TD, and 1.8 INT per game. If you force that stat line every week, you're doing just fine. Next time a talking head or rival tells you how soft the passing defense is, just point them to this data.

Beast, what would MSU's pass yds allowed per game be if one excluded the 3 longest uab and two longest lsu scores?

[defiantdog]

Beast, what would MSU's pass yds allowed per game be if one excluded the 3 longest uab and two longest lsu scores?

Our total passing yards given up have been 1,850. UAB had a touchdown pass of 88 yards, 81 yards and 75 yards. LSU had two long pass plays of 31 yards and 30 yards. If you take those out, we have only given up 1,545 yards. That turns into 257.5 yards a game compared to 308 yards per game. I'm not sure where that stacks up with the rest of the SEC.

[CadaverDawg]

HELL NO man..no making fun, my gf made me watch it..its great.

What the hell are those things? Twinkies?

[SDDawg]

Minions rock, my kids love them and I enjoyed those movies too.

Stats were awesome BeastMan, you can't deny that this team has been getting better when it counts when it comes to pass defense as well which is great to see.

[TUSK]

Our total passing yards given up have been 1,850. UAB had a touchdown pass of 88 yards, 81 yards and 75 yards. LSU had two long pass plays of 31 yards and 30 yards. If you take those out, we have only given up 1,545 yards. That turns into 257.5 yards a game compared to 308 yards per game. I'm not sure where that stacks up with the rest of the SEC.

thanks...

I just looked it up... 257 would put yall just behind A&M, Arkie, Vandy & USCe who are all in the ~230 range.

the adjusted eff rating, however, would likely increase enough to put yall in the top half of the conference...

[Political Hack]

thanks...

I just looked it up... 257 would put yall just behind A&M, Arkie, Vandy & USCe who are all in the ~230 range.

the adjusted eff rating, however, would likely increase enough to put yall in the top half of the conference...

people throw on us roughly 10% more than they do any other team in the conference because we've been ahead in every game we've played by at least 20 points (I think that was the point total someone pointed out on here). Pass eff is all that matters when looking at it from that perspective... that and W's.