View Full Version : there's been a great deal of discussion re: Tiebreakers, so I ran the numbers....
the short version is this:
there seems to be no possibility of a 4 way tie.
in the event of a 3 way tie, Auburn will smoke bama, MSU and OM.
also, in the event of a 3 way tie, OM will not win out over anyone....
summary: MSU and Bammers best hope (in the event of a tie) is that the tie is with OM (and not AU)...
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:15 AM
the short version is this:
there seems to be no possibility of a 4 way tie.
in the event of a 3 way tie, Auburn will smoke bama, MSU and OM.
also, in the event of a 3 way tie, OM will not win out over anyone....
summary: MSU and Bammers best hope (in the event of a tie) is that the tie is with OM (and not AU)...
Why does Auburn have such a massive advantage in a 3 way tie?
TheRef
10-16-2014, 12:22 AM
Why does Auburn have such a massive advantage in a 3 way tie?
East Division Opponents.
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:23 AM
Yeah Auburn having an advantage doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:23 AM
East Division Opponents.
Can someone post the actual rules for a tie?
TheRef
10-16-2014, 12:27 AM
Can someone post the actual rules for a tie?
Not the rule verbage itself, but here is an article from Dennis Dodd in May explaining the new tiebreaker rule.
Going forward, if a divisional tie could not be broken through that lengthy tiebreaker list, then the schedule strength of each team's two opponents from the opposite division would be evaluated.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/24575244/sec-changing-tiebreaker-in-college-football-playoff-era
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:29 AM
Not the rule verbage itself, but here is an article from Dennis Dodd in May explaining the new tiebreaker rule.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/24575244/sec-changing-tiebreaker-in-college-football-playoff-era
That's ridiculous. Thankfully, it will not come down to that. I can see a two way tie but there will not be a three way tie at the end of this season. (pretty confident)
In that I mean we may lose in Tuscaloosa, but I think AU beats Bama and we beat OM to win the west.
I'm hoping we just win it all
Why does Auburn have such a massive advantage in a 3 way tie?
the new tie breaking system hinges on the SEC records of East Divisional opponents...
currently:
AU - USCe (2-3) & UGA (3-1); 5-4
UA - UT (0-2) & FLA (2-2); 2-4
MSU - UK (2-1) & Vandy (0-4); 3-5
UM - UT (0-2) & Vandy (0-4); 0-6
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:32 AM
If we didn't go to the SEC championship, as a one loss team, because Auburn got to play more difficult Eastern division opponents, then the playoff committee would have to consider the winner of the Egg Bowl as a 2nd SEC team in the playoff. It would be absurd to be knocked out of the playoffs because of a rule like that, especially when we would've beaten the team that would be in the SEC championship
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:33 AM
the new tie breaking system hinges on the SEC records of East Divisional opponents...
currently:
AU - USCe (2-3) & UGA (3-1); 5-4
UA - UT (0-2) & FLA (2-2); 2-4
MSU - UK (2-1) & Vandy (0-4); 3-5
UM - UT (0-2) & Vandy (0-4); 0-6
Hey buddy, you better rank MSU ahead of Bama on your little graph there. 3-5 is a higher winning percentage than 2-4
essentially, it penalizes the team with the softer schedule....
having Vandy on the schedule both gets a win, but also hurts in the event of a tie....
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:35 AM
Hey buddy, you better rank MSU ahead of Bama on your little graph there. 3-5 is a higher winning percentage than 2-4
Yeah it would be.
AU
MSU
UA
TSUN
missouridawg
10-16-2014, 12:35 AM
Hey buddy, you better rank MSU ahead of Bama on your little graph there. 3-5 is a higher winning percentage than 2-4h
His math for us is wrong though. 2-5
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:36 AM
essentially, it penalizes the team with the softer schedule....
having Vandy on the schedule both gets a win, but also hurts in the event of a tie....
3-5 is higher than 2-4. That could change throughout the season but currently we would be higher than Bama
Edit: Missouridawg has it correct. We would be 2-5 currently. What a ridiculous rule
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:37 AM
h
His math for us is wrong though. 2-5
Dang your right
Hey buddy, you better rank MSU ahead of Bama on your little graph there. 3-5 is a higher winning percentage than 2-4
well, that post didn't show future competition.... UK and Vandy both have to still play MSU... so, it's likely 2 more losses for MSU's eastern opponents...
bama has already played UF...
make sense?
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:39 AM
Well. Like I said. I hope we win out. But if we have to lose one, I would rather it be to Bama with AU beating Bama and us beating TSUN. That would clear it up no problem. Correct?
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:40 AM
It is a ridiculous rule, especially when considering how it could affect the NC.
It's tough though, I'm not sure of what a better rule be.
I could argue that Ole Miss has the easiest schedule of all. They get Bama, Auburn, and MSU all at home. Literally every tough game for them is at home.
Auburn does have the toughest schedule though. That's not really debatable. Because of that though, I think Auburn will have at least 2 losses
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:41 AM
Well. Like I said. I hope we win out. But if we have to lose one, I would rather it be to Bama with AU beating Bama and us beating TSUN. That would clear it up no problem. Correct?
Correct, we would win it then.
mstatefan91
10-16-2014, 12:43 AM
Correct, we would win it then.
With TSUN losing to AU. I left that out
If we didn't go to the SEC championship, as a one loss team, because Auburn got to play more difficult Eastern division opponents, then the playoff committee would have to consider the winner of the Egg Bowl as a 2nd SEC team in the playoff. It would be absurd to be knocked out of the playoffs because of a rule like that, especially when we would've beaten the team that would be in the SEC championship
the sec will not get 2 playoff teams unless there are some specific upsets outside the sec & a few games decided by narrow margins within the SEC... it just won't happen...
I know it sounds "homerish", but the title still will be decided in Tuscaloosa...
I just wish bama would get their shit together...
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:54 AM
With TSUN losing to AU. I left that out
That wouldn't matter because if we have one loss and beat Ole Miss, then we have the tie breaker over them.
ShotgunDawg
10-16-2014, 12:55 AM
the sec will not get 2 playoff teams unless there are some specific upsets outside the sec & a few games decided by narrow margins within the SEC... it just won't happen...
I know it sounds "homerish", but the title still will be decided in Tuscaloosa...
I just wish bama would get their shit together...
Between who?
Between who?
with the assumption that OM does not win out:
the MSU@Bama & the AU@Bama games will decide the SECW, and likely the SECC and NC.
Political Hack
10-16-2014, 08:19 AM
Even if we lose to Bama and beat OM, we're likely in. We'll have the head to head over Auburn and SOW (Slave Owner's Wife). I fully expect Bama to drop at least one more game, if not two.
maroonmania
10-16-2014, 08:38 AM
Yeah Auburn having an advantage doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
As much as I hate to say it, if Auburn ends up in a tie with multiple teams for the lead in the West they deserve it. They will have played @MSU, @OM, @AL and @GA. That is the worst road draw in the entire SEC BY FAR. OM ended up with the best schedule getting all 3 of the other real contenders for the West at home (AL, AUB, MSU). OM has the best shot for the West right now based on upcoming schedule given they will be favored in all road games and have both Auburn and us still left at home. Certainly will be an interesting second half of the season.
Johnson85
10-16-2014, 08:47 AM
So do you not go head to head after eliminating one team using the tie breaker? Pretty sure that used to be how the tie breakers worked.
spiritual_machine2005
10-16-2014, 09:45 AM
From what I understand, I may be completely wrong, but if there is a 3 way tie, they look at cross divisional records to eliminate ONE team. Then, when it's down to just the two remaining teams, it goes to the two team tie breaker, which is always settled by head to head. So, if its UM, AUB, and MSU all tied, then UM would probably be eliminated because KY/Vandy would probably be a better record than TN/Vandy. Of course that is yet to be determined. So after UM is eliminated, it would go to head to head between AUB and MSU, where we would win because we beat AUB. Is this right? Now, if there is a 4 way tie, say with UM, AUB, MSU, and UA, then we would be the second team eliminated (after UM) using the cross divisional records, and then it would go to head to head between AUB and UA. Right?
PMDawg
10-16-2014, 12:00 PM
the short version is this:
there seems to be no possibility of a 4 way tie.
in the event of a 3 way tie, Auburn will smoke bama, MSU and OM.
also, in the event of a 3 way tie, OM will not win out over anyone....
summary: MSU and Bammers best hope (in the event of a tie) is that the tie is with OM (and not AU)...
What if our 1 loss just happened to be to Kentucky? I think then we win out in a 3 way tie b/c our west record would be 6-0, right?
RAYn_Man
10-16-2014, 12:24 PM
Just win baby win.
Tdawg
10-16-2014, 12:43 PM
the short version is this:
there seems to be no possibility of a 4 way tie.
in the event of a 3 way tie, Auburn will smoke bama, MSU and OM.
also, in the event of a 3 way tie, OM will not win out over anyone....
summary: MSU and Bammers best hope (in the event of a tie) is that the tie is with OM (and not AU)...
Aren't the 3-way tiebreakers just used to eliminate 1 team and then it goes to head-to-head among the two remaining? Not sure how that would change things, but I feel like I remember that being the case?
Political Hack
10-16-2014, 12:51 PM
Aren't the 3-way tiebreakers just used to eliminate 1 team and then it goes to head-to-head among the two remaining? Not sure how that would change things, but I feel like I remember that being the case?
hope so. if so, we've got a big advantage right now.
I seen it dawg
10-16-2014, 03:00 PM
The only tiebreakers needed will be for the non playoff bowl games that we won't have to worry about.
archdog
10-16-2014, 03:26 PM
Well everyone needs two losses then.
nsvltndog
10-16-2014, 04:00 PM
The tough part about this rule is that not a single team in the tie breaker scenario had any say in their 2014 East schedule. There is nothing that any of them could have done to impact the situation w/ the possible exception of years ago when Ole Miss fought so hard to maintain their bitter rivalry with Vanderbilt.
The only tiebreakers needed will be for the non playoff bowl games that we won't have to worry about.
Bowl selection committees don't care about tiebreakers.
LiterallyPolice
10-16-2014, 08:22 PM
Here are the details for both 2 and 3 team ties.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/sec-has-a-new-tiebreaker-in-2014/
If the 3 team tiebreaker eliminates ONLY one team, then the 2 team tiebreaker is used. Unfortunately that probably would not apply to the situation of MSU/UM/AUB.... because the strength of Auburns cross divisional opponents (USC, UGA) will probably be enough to eliminate both MSU and UM from the tiebreaker, leaving Auburn as the champ.
Aces High
10-16-2014, 08:32 PM
the short version is this:
there seems to be no possibility of a 4 way tie.
in the event of a 3 way tie, Auburn will smoke bama, MSU and OM.
also, in the event of a 3 way tie, OM will not win out over anyone....
summary: MSU and Bammers best hope (in the event of a tie) is that the tie is with OM (and not AU)...
Well I guess there is only 1 thing left to do then....
Quaoarsking
10-16-2014, 10:36 PM
We can hope that Kentucky goes 6-2, with Georgia 4-4 and South Carolina 2-6. That would tie us with Auburn and send it back to head-to-head.
Here are the details for both 2 and 3 team ties.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/sec-has-a-new-tiebreaker-in-2014/
If the 3 team tiebreaker eliminates ONLY one team, then the 2 team tiebreaker is used. Unfortunately that probably would not apply to the situation of MSU/UM/AUB.... because the strength of Auburns cross divisional opponents (USC, UGA) will probably be enough to eliminate both MSU and UM from the tiebreaker, leaving Auburn as the champ.
you literally got that correct.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.