Boyd's World Probabilities to Win Regional/SR/CWS

[LiterallyPolice]

For Every Team. I think this paints a good picture of how difficult/easy our regional is. It's probably somewhere in the middle.

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2013.html


Reg SR Final CWS
Mississippi State 72.4 14.8 1.7 0.4

Our 72.4% chance of winning the regional is better than K State, Indiana, Louisville, UCLA, VA Tech, and USCe. Note Virginia has the highest chance of any team of winning their regional: 98.8%. So much for a Starkville Super Regional.

[Original48]

Actually it looks like North Carolina has best chance at 99.1 followed by Virginia at 98.8. But yes..amazing how they placated Virginia.

[mparkerfd20]

Notice that our 4 seed has the highest probability of all 16 to win the regional and our 3 seed has the 3rd highest of all 3 seeds.

[Sandman14]

Wow. That thing is screwed up. So much for stats.

UNC does NOT have an 86% chance of beating South Carolina/Clemson. Maybe 70%. Maybe 75%. Not 86%. Personally, if they match up with USC, I think it could go either way.

Fullerton does NOT have a 90% chance of winning their regional over ASU and New Mexico. Very glad we have USA and Mercer over ASU and New Mexico. But hey, what do I know?

NC State does NOT have a 77% chance of winning their regional over Ole Miss. It basically boils down to Wahl beating Rodon, which is very possible. Also, NC State has an atrocious bullpen. If they get deep, look for Ole Miss to punish them.

Vandy at 96% is laughable. Georgia Tech just took 2/3 over UNC a few weeks ago. Vandy is very, very good. But this is baseball.

Florida with a 17% chance eh? I'll take that bet.

[Will James]

WJ odds.

60% of winning the regional
18% of reaching Omaha

[LiterallyPolice]

Wow. That thing is screwed up. So much for stats.

UNC does NOT have an 86% chance of beating South Carolina/Clemson. Maybe 70%. Maybe 75%. Not 86%. Personally, if they match up with USC, I think it could go either way.

Fullerton does NOT have a 90% chance of winning their regional over ASU and New Mexico. Very glad we have USA and Mercer over ASU and New Mexico. But hey, what do I know?

NC State does NOT have a 77% chance of winning their regional over Ole Miss. It basically boils down to Wahl beating Rodon, which is very possible. Also, NC State has an atrocious bullpen. If they get deep, look for Ole Miss to punish them.

Vandy at 96% is laughable. Georgia Tech just took 2/3 over UNC a few weeks ago. Vandy is very, very good. But this is baseball.

Florida with a 17% chance eh? I'll take that bet.

Your attempt to discredit the model with anecdotal evidence is kinda ironic if you think about it. The whole point of a model like this is to take many scenarios/outcomes into consideration - generally way more than a single person does.

I'm not saying it's perfect, but I trust this way more than your analysis.

[The Croom Diaries]

Basically he's saying if we meet Virginia our odds are 4-1 against. That seems pretty steep. I would say Will's 2-1 odds are more accurate, although I think we should be around 80% chance to win the Regional, making us about a 27% chance to get to Omaha.

[Quaoarsking]

I realize its just a formula, but obviously 99% is a huge overstatement for UVA and UNC. Baseball is a fickle game and often the better team doesn't win.

[Sandman14]

Your attempt to discredit the model with anecdotal evidence is kinda ironic if you think about it. The whole point of a model like this is to take many scenarios/outcomes into consideration - generally way more than a single person does.

I'm not saying it's perfect, but I trust this way more than your analysis.

yep and it's folks like you that actually buy that MSU got a raw deal in the regional selection.

this is the same argument that folks use when they don't want the SEC in the BCS title game with a one-loss team. "c'mon, the stats don't lie, it's public perception." welp, no, it's not. we have eye balls. we can see which team is better.

if you actually believe that it would be better to be playing the regional with Arkansas and then the two worst teams in the entire postseason as the 3 and 4, then you don't know what you are talking about.

And you can trust whatever you want. If you trust that Mercer is better than Arkansas (higher RPI, I think), then you don't know shit.

[Will James]

I realize its just a formula, but obviously 99% is a huge overstatement for UVA and UNC. Baseball is a fickle game and often the better team doesn't win.

This. A Miami Marlins regional wouldn't be 99%

[bulldogcountry1]

Our best hope is that Virginia sweeps through their regional with little resistance, gets overconfident, and we roll into town and punch them in the throat.

...assuming we win ours.

[LiterallyPolice]

yep and it's folks like you that actually buy that MSU got a raw deal in the regional selection.

this is the same argument that folks use when they don't want the SEC in the BCS title game with a one-loss team. "c'mon, the stats don't lie, it's public perception." welp, no, it's not. we have eye balls. we can see which team is better.

if you actually believe that it would be better to be playing the regional with Arkansas and then the two worst teams in the entire postseason as the 3 and 4, then you don't know what you are talking about.

And you can trust whatever you want. If you trust that Mercer is better than Arkansas (higher RPI, I think), then you don't know shit.

Uh.... wow, your assumptions regarding what I think are about as accurate as you insight into Cohen's starting pitching decisions. The term "strawman" gets thrown around alot on message boards, but I really think this post takes the cake.

To clarify:

I think we got a pretty good deal in our regional. On a scale from "1" being totally screwed, to "10" being a gift from the baseball gods, I would say we got about a "7".

I think 1 loss teams are often deserving of national titles games. But this isn't really on topic....

I agree with you on your last two points... I'm not really sure why you think I didn't. But they really don't make sense because the Model you are discounting agrees with you are well. Arkansas has the HIGHEST chance (41.9%) of any 2 seed to win their regional.

[Quaoarsking]

The "eye test" is a completely subjective, bias-fulfilling, terrible way to evaluate teams. I would rather have NCAA selection committees who never watched a game and choose solely by mounds of objective stats.

[Sandman14]

Yeah look I'm not trying to get in a dick measuring contest. You made a remark about trusting this model over my comments. The point of the remark is well-taken: You are trying to take a "numbers only" look and weed out perception.

My point is these numbers are grossly wrong and ridiculous. So however they came up with them, their system sucks ass.

I merely pointed out some of the more egregious numbers they came up with.

Oh and if you can find someone to give you 5 to 1 odds on Florida winning the Indiana regional, put me $500 on it.

[Sandman14]

The "eye test" is a completely subjective, bias-fulfilling, terrible way to evaluate teams. I would rather have NCAA selection committees who never watched a game and choose solely by mounds of objective stats.

Well you can enjoy having shitty teams from the Big 10 getting whacked in BCS title games then.

If you are going to rely on stats, you MUST incorporate some major polls as at least a component. Letting the damn computer tell you who is good is exactly why some idiots are running around saying MSU got hosed.

[Ronny]

..fanbase must be pissed.

This calculation is giving them a 95.9% chance of winning their regional.

I thought the Vandy regional (according to an article on this board currently) is the hardest regional in the history of regionals.

[SaltyDawg]

There is a 98.384% chance that formula is complete bullshit.

[Sandman14]

There is a 98.384% chance that formula is complete bullshit.

BOOM. exactly. much better way of saying it than the way I used.

[LiterallyPolice]

There is a 98.384% chance that formula is complete bullshit.

My calculations are showing there is a 76.25% chance that the formula is 15.34% bullshit.

And there is a 100% chance that some of you want to quote Anchorman right now. Admit it.

[Sandman14]

but I'd like to add that I immensely enjoy looking at BS like that, so I appreciate it being posted.