Anybody here with an ESPN Insider login want to copy and paste this entire article? [Archive]

Pokerdawg44

10-02-2014, 02:06 PM

Quarterbacks Kenny Hill and Dak Prescott will duke it out at Davis Wade Stadium this weekend.

While there are a multitude of stellar Week 6 matchups, for me one clearly stands out as being the most intriguing: Texas A&M at Mississippi State.*

Simply put, these two programs could not be more different.*

The Aggies, often characterized as flashy, are the hottest program in the state of Texas (if not the country). Kevin Sumlin is known as "Coach Swag," arguably the coolest coach in college football (he's known to attend rap concerts and make dramatic entrances via helicopter on the recruiting trail). The roster is filled with some of the country's top recruits, and quarterback*Kenny "Trill" Hill's family trademarked his nickname just as Johnny Football's did last year. Most consider the Aggies a finesse team with elite athleticism.*

On the other hand, Mississippi State is the self-proclaimed "band of misfits" who see themselves as blue-collar -- tough players who were under-recruited and are looking for respect. They're led by coach Dan Mullen, who calls himself a "Yankee" in the South. Most consider the Bulldogs a tough, physical team.*

Which one of these contrasting styles will come out on top and continue its quest for the SEC West crown? After studying both clubs, here's a look at three keys that will determine whether the Aggies or Bulldogs win on Saturday.*

1. Can the Aggies contain QB*Dak Prescott*

The Aggies have to limit Prescott to less than 100 yards rushing in order to win.*Plus, they have to make Prescott one-dimensional and force him to throw more than Mississippi State would like. The Bulldogs' 96 pass attempts this season (24 per game) are the lowest in the FBS. Texas A&M must force Prescott to pass 30 to 36 times and make him do so from inside the pocket (with pressure up the middle and not allow him to escape to the outside).*

There is no question that the Aggies will focus their defense on trying to control Prescott's ability to run quarterback-designed plays. But is A&M's defense physical enough to do this?*

Last year, Prescott hit the Aggies up for 154 yards rushing (including a 44-yard run) in a 51-41 loss. Prescott, the No. 5 rushing quarterback in the country, has a variety of designed runs at his disposal, including the zone-read, QB draw, QB power and QB lead. When these plays are combined with the Bulldogs' wide receiver*Jameon Lewisrunning the jet sweep or catching short passes in their perimeter screen game, it is difficult for a defense to stop the QB-designed runs.*

Based on my film study, the most dangerous QB-designed run for Prescott is what I call the "duck-under zone-read." On the normal zone-read, Prescott decides whether to keep the ball or give it to running back*Josh Robinson, based on what the defensive end does. If the defensive end crashes inside to tackle Robinson, then Prescott keeps the ball and runs outside. If the defensive end stays outside, Prescott gives the ball to Robinson.*

However, on the duck-under zone-read, Prescott keeps the ball and ducks inside behind Robinson. This is the play he busted open last season for the 44-yard run against the Aggies. If their defense isn't physical enough to stop this play, among other QB-designed runs, Texas A&M cannot win.*

2. Can the Bulldogs' defense hold up versus Hill and his receivers?*

As for Hill, he beats teams from the pocket, which has allowed Sumlin to expand his offense more than he did with Johnny Manziel at the helm. Hill doesn't freelance as much as Manziel did and hangs in the pocket longer to find his second or third receiving option. That's why Hill's numbers have been so good -- 66 percent completion rate, 349 yards per game and a 17-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio.*

Hill is more comfortable with Sumlin's system than Manziel was. Sumlin told me a couple of weeks ago that Manziel preferred to be alone in the backfield (empty backfield) so that he could see more of the field. However, Hill is more comfortable with the variety of formations that Sumlin wants to use (two running backs, a tight end, more motion, etc.). This gives Hill more options at his disposal, including some things the Aggies have yet to show this season.*

So how can the Bulldogs defend Hill? They should follow the plan that Arkansas used last week, which held the Aggies to only 14 points most of the game before Arkansas fell in overtime. The Razorbacks employed a bend-but-don't-break approach that generally kept the Aggies from getting long pass plays.*

Arkansas forced Hill to be patient and to make short throws. The Razorbacks then made good tackles to limit yards after the catch. On most first- and second-down situations, they rushed four defenders and dropped seven into coverage -- mostly a quarters coverage (each defensive back had one-quarter of the deep areas to cover) and a mixture of quarter-quarter-half and some two-deep coverages (the two safeties splitting half the deep areas).*

The quarter coverages allowed the safeties to defend deep, but also attack the line of scrimmage when they read a running play. Because the Aggies ran a lot on first and second down, this played right into Arkansas' hand and resulted in lots of third-and-long situations for A&M.*

AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

Cornerback Jamerson Love will play a big role in the Bulldogs' defensive efforts.

Once Arkansas put the Aggies in third-and-long, it switched its coverage to either a three-deep, four-under matchup-zone defense or a man-to-man defense with the free safety in the middle of the field. The Razorbacks continued to rush only four defenders so that they could have maximum pass defense while putting more pressure on Hill than a three-man rush could.*

I also favor zone coverage because I don't believe that the Bulldogs can effectively play man-to-man against the Aggies' talented group of wide receivers. In my opinion, there is only one favorable man-to-man matchup for the Bulldogs, and that's cornerback*Jamerson Love*versus A&M wide receiver*Malcolme Kennedy. Love is the Bulldogs' best cover guy and I assume that the Bulldogs want him on Kennedy as much as possible because he appears to be Hill's favorite target in key situations (see overtime TD pass versus Arkansas).*

However, the other matchups in the secondary are not favorable for the Bulldogs. No defender can match up with the size and length of either 6-foot-5*Ricky Seals-Jones*(whether he is in the slot or lines up as a tight end) or 6-4Josh Reynolds. And*Speedy Noil*is too quick and changes direction too well for Mississippi State's safeties to handle him. I don't see how the Bulldogs can play man-to-man coverage against this group.*

3. Can the Aggies' D handle the Bulldogs' rushing attack?*

Arkansas showed last week that the Texas A&M run defense is still the weak link of the Aggies' team. The Razorbacks ran for 285 yards, and they did it without a running quarterback. The Bulldogs feature running back Robinson (120 yards per game) and Prescott, while also getting rushing yards from Lewis on jet sweeps and reverses.*

The problem for the Aggies is that their defensive line is built for pass rushing, not stopping the run. For example, defensive end*Myles Garrett*is a star in the making, but he's a 250-pound freshman who excels at pass rushing. The outside linebackers are athletic and fast, but at about 220 pounds they can't successfully take on 300-pound offensive linemen all game long. This was a problem against Arkansas.*

The solution for the Aggies is to commit more defenders to stopping the run (i.e., eight defenders near the line of scrimmage), but this is risky because Prescott will be involved in the running game, which means that the extra defender (the eighth guy) will have to consistently make one-on-one tackles on the 230-pound quarterback. Good luck with that. Also, that will leave 6-5 wide receiver*De'Runnya Wilson*in single coverage, which is also a problem. But the Aggies have no choice -- they must commit to stopping the run.*

Outlook*

It's worth noting that Mississippi State was off last week while Texas A&M battled a physical Arkansas team into overtime. The Bulldogs should enter the game a little fresher and healthier than the Aggies, but that might not be dispositive of the outcome of this matchup.*

In fact, given the above keys and analysis, I'll give the edge to A&M because of the Aggies' wide receiver matchup edge versus the Bulldogs' defensive backs. It's likely going to be a close battle, but A&M's QB and wideouts could very well prove to be the factor that determines which of these two very different programs takes a step forward in the SEC West race.