Anybody else think we should start Graveman in Game 1?

[Coach34]

reasons why:

1. Everybody has to start their Ace in Game 1 in this regional- there are no first day gimmes
2. Graveman is more likely to give us a quality start- the less bullpen we use on Day 1- the better
3. Facing whomever's #2 on Saturday gives Pollo more room for error


I havent looked to see what UCA does vs RH's vs LH's. Obviously if they have trouble vs LH's, then you start Pollo. I'm talking strictly with all things being equal.

[SaltyDawg]

I like Pollo. UCA has seen Graveman once already this year- haven't seen Pollo. USA and Mercer are better power teams- Graveman keeps the ball down and induces groundballs. Pollo is a lefty and will keep UCA honest on the basepaths.

[War Machine Dawg]

Not just no, but hell no. Game 2 is our most important game of the regional. It's either an elimination game or a pass the the Regional Championship game. Either way, I want my best guy on the bump for that game. That means Grave. Go with Pollo, Fitts, or Cox game 1.

[CadaverDawg]

I like Pollo. UCA has seen Graveman once already this year- haven't seen Pollo. USA and Mercer are better power teams- Graveman keeps the ball down and induces groundballs. Pollo is a lefty and will keep UCA honest on the basepaths.

This^^

[Coach34]

Not just no, but hell no. Game 2 is our most important game of the regional. .

I disagree- lose Game 1 and your done. Less than 5% of teams win a Regional after losing Game 1

[Todd4State]

Graveman has been up and down all year, and he does better against certain teams than others. Fortuantely, we had the advantage to see how Graveman did against UCA, and it was not all that great.

I like Pollorena because to me, he is our best big game pitcher. Graveman is our best overall starting pitcher, but Pollo is better with the spotlight on. Plus, as much as UCA runs, I'd like for us to use a LH pitcher that can manage the running game well, plus UCA's best hitters is a LH hitter.

On top of that, I like Graveman vs. either South Alabama or Mercer since he is a veteran and he can match wits with USA and he is a ground ball pitcher which hopefully will match up well for us vs. Mercer should we play them in game two.

[CadaverDawg]

Graveman has been up and down all year, and he does better against certain teams than others. Fortuantely, we had the advantage to see how Graveman did against UCA, and it was not all that great.

I like Pollorena because to me, he is our best big game pitcher. Graveman is our best overall starting pitcher, but Pollo is better with the spotlight on. Plus, as much as UCA runs, I'd like for us to use a LH pitcher that can manage the running game well, plus UCA's best hitters is a LH hitter.

On top of that, I like Graveman vs. either South Alabama or Mercer since he is a veteran and he can match wits with USA and he is a ground ball pitcher which hopefully will match up well for us vs. Mercer should we play them in game two.

I agree. If Graveman was our "head and shoulders above the rest" Ace, it would be different. But we do not have a Stratton or anything close to it. So give me the guy who is gritty, used to starting on Friday night, and can help control the running game.

[Coach34]

Also, after a quick look- UCA starts 7 RH'ed bats and 2 LH's....Give me Graveman

Judging Graveman on a start back in March in 35 degree weather is not a good reprentation of the kind of pitcher he is- you know that

[The Croom Diaries]

2. Graveman is more likely to give us a quality start- the less bullpen we use on Day 1- the better



I agree with the first half of this statement, but I think it would be even more beneficial to save the bullpen in Game 2.

I'm going to have to assume that since Lindgren has been mediocre at best in his last 5 starts, he's going to be mediocre again in the Regional Game 3 and maybe give us 4 innings...so if the bullpen logs some innings I'd rather it be Friday than Saturday so they can have a potential day of rest on Saturday (if Graveman is able to go deep into the game).

I wonder if anyone has a stat on this - which pitcher is better as far as allowing runners to steal? You'd figure Pollo since he's a lefty but Graveman has a pretty good move to first for a righty and he seems a little quicker to the plate. With UCA's speed (90 for 111 on SB - 81%!) that might factor into the decision. But if all is equal I go Pollo in Game 1.

[SaltyDawg]

Also, after a quick look- UCA starts 7 RH'ed bats and 2 LH's....Give me Graveman

Judging Graveman on a start back in March in 35 degree weather is not a good reprentation of the kind of pitcher he is- you know that

UCA when facing a RHP 30-14 W/L recorod

UCA when facing a LHP 9-6 W/L record

Matchups aren't always the best thing to go by.

[SaltyDawg]

UCA only hits .268 as a team. We can live with that, but you don't want a speedy team hitting a bunch of groundballs and putting pressure on your D- throw Pollo.

My next question is, who is the better catcher to throw runners out- Slauter or Ammo?

[Goat Holder]

Absolutely not. Go with what got you there. Game 2 is where you'll face the best team. We all think because UCA beat us that they will do so again. They may, but I don't think so. You go Pollo vs. UCA, then Graveman, your ace, in Game 2. That's how regional winnin' is done.

[CadaverDawg]

UCA only hits .268 as a team. We can live with that, but you don't want a speedy team hitting a bunch of groundballs and putting pressure on your D- throw Pollo.

My next question is, who is the better catcher to throw runners out- Slauter or Ammo?

Gotta go with Ammo. He is better at throwing guys out, And he is a left handed bat against the RHP

[The Croom Diaries]

My next question is, who is the better catcher to throw runners out- Slauter or Ammo?

Ammo has thrown out 10 of 33 this year and Slauter has thrown out 3 of 16.

If I'm reading these stats correctly, it looks like Graveman has allowed only 1 stolen base all year and 4 have been caught stealing/picked off. Pollo has allowed 5 stolen bases and has only 1 CS/pick off. I knew Graveman had a good pick off move, but one SB all year? That makes me think Graveman might be a better choice here.

[Coach34]

They do have a pretty good running game I see now- so Pollo could be effective there. But Graveman is quick to the plate.

They really dont hit the ball well, so if they arent on base- they cant run. Pollo is more likely to walk someone- 1 every 2 innings, while Kendall walks 1 every 4 innings. Pollo's ERA is over a run higher 4.30 vs 3.04 as well.

Then you have 7 RH's and 2 LH's in the line-up- and we know Cohen loves his match-ups

Makes for interesting conversation anyway

[bulldogcountry1]

Honestly, I don't think it matters that much, given our recent SP.

But, I want to think of this as a 3 game series and doing what is best to win the regional, not just win the first game. Graveman is our obvious best chance at going deep in a game. I want him pitching game 2 because it gives our pen a chance to rest a day, should Pollo not be able to give us a lot of innings on Friday. Then, they can all be available again on Sunday.

[CadaverDawg]

Honestly, I don't think it matters that much, given our recent SP.

But, I want to think of this as a 3 game series and doing what is best to win the regional, not just win the first game. Graveman is our obvious best chance at going deep in a game. I want him pitching game 2 because it gives our pen a chance to rest a day, should Pollo not be able to give us a lot of innings on Friday. Then, they can all be available again on Sunday.

Good point.

[The Croom Diaries]

UCA basically has 3 guys that steal: Allday (15), Davis (23) and Marchal (29).

The primary way they get on base is walks and HBP. Here are the ratios of hits to walks/HBP: Allday 82-63, Davis 59-59, 60-49. That tells me they rely heavily on the pitcher making a mistake and then burning him on the base paths rather than getting a hit. For reference, here are our best players' ratios: Renfroe 74-40, Fraizer 90-22, Pirtle 57-38, Detz 62-51, Bradford 66-27.

Graveman's WHIP is 1.25. Pollo's is 1.43. Based on that, their lineup full of righties and Graveman's ability to keep runners from stealing, I think Graveman may be the better choice for Game 1. I have changed my mind.

[engie]

I disagree- lose Game 1 and your done. Less than 5% of teams win a Regional after losing Game 1

This is a misleading subset to use...

Among regional hosts (#1 seeds) that lose to a 4 in their first game, those host teams still go on to win their regional just under 50% of the time(7 for 15) in the period of time I can easily check on wikipedia:
2012 - 1-1
2011 - 0-2
2010 - 1-0
2009 - 0-0
2008 - 3-1
2007 - 1-2
2006 - 1-2
2005 - 0-0

Also worth noting that, on average, TWO regional hosts lose their opening game to a 4-seed every year, where there has been as many as 4 and as few as zero -- and almost half of them still win the regionals from the loser's bracket.

[SaltyDawg]

Question, if we had a Stratton-esque pitcher this year would you throw him against UCA or save him for the better team in Game 2?

[CadaverDawg]

Question, if we had a Stratton-esque pitcher this year would you throw him against UCA or save him for the better team in Game 2?

I'd save him for game 2. If we had Stratton, Graveman, and Pollo, I would start Graveman or Pollo game 1

[Sandman14]

this thread is surprising. every year all the 1's are trying to figure out how to justify not throwing their ace in game 1, and here we are arguing about how to do the opposite after we've set the table perfectly.

not to mention that it doesn't really matter with our squad because we have no ace. the most important thing at this point is staying with what got us here...consistency.

also, the friday routine is hardly normal. all we are asking is for pollo to get us 4-5 innings. then it's ross mitchell to girado to holder. in this way, it's really more of a pollo/ross mitchell combo. ross mitchell has the best ERA in the league and is like 10-0. I'll go with ross mitchell.

then one poster actually brought up starting fitts or cox? not sure which team he's been watching or why we would play this entire season to earn a host in a regional and get to our first game and trot out a guy who's not even in the weekend rotation.

engie is on point with his comment too. don't twist the stats all up.

[Goat Holder]

Game 2.

Very rarely does the Pomeranz scenario work out in your favor. And it can't be good on your players' arms. Gets you a reputation like Bianco now has. I would ONLY consider this if you played that random 4 seed that had that random ace pitcher who's about to be a Top 5 rounder.

[Coach34]

UCA basically has 3 guys that steal: Allday (15), Davis (23) and Marchal (29).

The primary way they get on base is walks and HBP. Here are the ratios of hits to walks/HBP: Allday 82-63, Davis 59-59, 60-49. That tells me they rely heavily on the pitcher making a mistake and then burning him on the base paths rather than getting a hit. For reference, here are our best players' ratios: Renfroe 74-40, Fraizer 90-22, Pirtle 57-38, Detz 62-51, Bradford 66-27.

Graveman's WHIP is 1.25. Pollo's is 1.43. Based on that, their lineup full of righties and Graveman's ability to keep runners from stealing, I think Graveman may be the better choice for Game 1. I have changed my mind.


there we go- I've been waiting on this

[SaltyDawg]

A .18 difference in WHIP is miniscule.

If you're taking stats like that- wouldn't the more telling stat be the team's record against RHP/LHP, which I've previously posted. If not, you would at least have to cross-reference that.

RHP: 30-14
LHP: 9-6

[Sandman14]

Hey here's a stat someone should go look up: By percentages, how many host teams that are not national seeds have changed their rotation going into regional play. I bet it's close to zero, and for a reason.

[The Croom Diaries]

A .18 difference in WHIP is miniscule.

If you're taking stats like that- wouldn't the more telling stat be the team's record against RHP/LHP, which I've previously posted. If not, you would at least have to cross-reference that.

RHP: 30-14
LHP: 9-6

Ok, maybe WHIP wasn't the right stat to use there. The point I was trying to make was that they rely heavily on walks and HBP to get on base and steal to manufacture runs.

Graveman's walks + HBP per IP is .315
Pollo's is .520

So basically Pollo allows a base runner every 2 innings via walk or HBP and Graveman every 3 innings. In a six inning start that's 3 men on base for Pollo and 2 for Graveman. Not much, but that one runner could be the difference in the game with their 81% success on stolen bases.

But even more is the lack of runners that steal on Graveman - one all year. He has a good pick off move and is quick to the plate.

I won't be upset at all if Pollo starts, but maybe Graveman is the best match-up here.

[maroonmania]

Question, if we had a Stratton-esque pitcher this year would you throw him against UCA or save him for the better team in Game 2?

If we were playing an easily beatable 4 seed I would save a Stratton like pitcher but I would pitch him ALL DAY EVERY DAY against a team that I believe has beaten us 3 out of the last 4 times we've played them. Its not even debatable. In all honesty I don't see a lot of difference between UCA, USA and Mercer. None of them are elite type teams but all of them are very good teams that are capable of beating us in any one game setting.

[CadaverDawg]

Hey here's a stat someone should go look up: By percentages, how many host teams that are not national seeds have changed their rotation going into regional play. I bet it's close to zero, and for a reason.

Not true. It's quite common for a host to save their Ace for the second game of the Regional. I don't have stats, but I know it happens a lot. Florida State did it last year in fact, I'm pretty sure.

[SaltyDawg]

Regardless if we W or L, we have to play either Mercer or USA in Game 2. That is guaranteed. I'd feel more comfortable with Graveman throwing against those teams. I think we wipe the floor with UCA anyway.

I still think with all things being considered that Pollo is the best option- but it is a lot closer than I originally thought.

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

reasons why:

1. Everybody has to start their Ace in Game 1 in this regional- there are no first day gimmes
2. Graveman is more likely to give us a quality start- the less bullpen we use on Day 1- the better
3. Facing whomever's #2 on Saturday gives Pollo more room for error


I havent looked to see what UCA does vs RH's vs LH's. Obviously if they have trouble vs LH's, then you start Pollo. I'm talking strictly with all things being equal.

I would go with Graveman/Bracewell game 1 and R. Mitchell/Holder game 2.

[SaltyDawg]

I would go with Graveman/Bracewell game 1 and R. Mitchell/Holder game 2.

So if you had a 1-run lead going into Top 9, you would stick with Bracewell and not bring Holder in?

[maroonmania]

Not true. It's quite common for a host to save their Ace for the second game of the Regional. I don't have stats, but I know it happens a lot. Florida State did it last year in fact, I'm pretty sure.

If you get the right matchups, which we didn't, it can make a lot of sense to save your ace for the second game. Of course the downside is that if you do go into the loser's bracket and you don't pitch your ace until Saturday then no way can he help you on Monday. If he pitches on Friday there is at least the possibility that he could give you a few innings on Monday.

[FISHDAWG]

I go with Graveman ... bestfootforwardthing

[Quaoarsking]

I don't want to throw Pollo against Mercer -- they hit so many HRs. So by default put him on Friday and Graveman Saturday.

[The Croom Diaries]

If you get the right matchups, which we didn't, it can make a lot of sense to save your ace for the second game. Of course the downside is that if you do go into the loser's bracket and you don't pitch your ace until Saturday then no way can he help you on Monday. If he pitches on Friday there is at least the possibility that he could give you a few innings on Monday.

Samford did not pitch their ace against us in Game 1 last year and they were the 3 seed (which made the loss even worse). Most folks were clamoring for Cohen to pitch Stratton in Game 2 but he didn't. I think it happens all the time and it makes a lot of sense if are are anyone except the 4 seed because whether you lose the first or second game is the same difference so saving your ace for Game 2 will put you in a position to either A) have him pitch for the chance to go to the Regional final or B) have him pitch when you back is against the wall in an elimination game. Plus, you would be throwing your ace against the better team than you faced in Game 1 - the 1 seed if you are a 2 or 3, or the 2 or 3 seed if you are the 1. Really, the Regional set-up is stupid. I wish we had a round robin or best 2 of 3. But this year we have no ace so I'd just throw the best matchup.

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

So if you had a 1-run lead going into Top 9, you would stick with Bracewell and not bring Holder in?

Obviously not. I am just saying that ideally I would go with the B team in game 1 and go with the A team in game 2.

[CadaverDawg]

I don't want to throw Pollo against Mercer -- they hit so many HRs. So by default put him on Friday and Graveman Saturday.

Yep

[Will James]

I don't want to throw Pollo against Mercer -- they hit so many HRs. So by default put him on Friday and Graveman Saturday.

Yeah this is really a no brainer for me too

[The Croom Diaries]

Pollo has given up 2 HR this year, Graveman has given up 4. Sure, Graveman is a groundball pitcher, but as you say Will - the stats don't lie.

[maroonmania]

Graveman has been up and down all year, and he does better against certain teams than others. Fortuantely, we had the advantage to see how Graveman did against UCA, and it was not all that great.

I like Pollorena because to me, he is our best big game pitcher. Graveman is our best overall starting pitcher, but Pollo is better with the spotlight on. Plus, as much as UCA runs, I'd like for us to use a LH pitcher that can manage the running game well, plus UCA's best hitters is a LH hitter.

On top of that, I like Graveman vs. either South Alabama or Mercer since he is a veteran and he can match wits with USA and he is a ground ball pitcher which hopefully will match up well for us vs. Mercer should we play them in game two.

I agree, I personally don't see much difference between Pollo and Graveman right now. Now if Graveman was currently pitching like he did in late March through mid-April (remember when he had the 3 complete games in a row?) then I would consider him our true ace but he is not pitching at that level any more. At this point its almost a crap shoot on whether Pollo or Graveman will give you the better outing.

[CadaverDawg]

Pollo has given up 2 HR this year, Graveman has given up 4. Sure, Graveman is a groundball pitcher, but as you say Will - the stats don't lie.

Graveman has also pitched 20 more innings than Pollo. 2 HR's in 20 more innings isn't enough to use as a measuring stick IMO. Plus, Pollo got several midweek innings against weaker opponents and their midweek starters.

There's no doubt that Graveman uses sink and Pollo doesn't as much. That makes Graveman a better option against a HR hitting club. That being said, Stratton had not given up many bombs last year either, yet Samford pounded him. Stats don't mean that someone won't make a mistake pitch and give up a bomb.

[Coach34]

But even more is the lack of runners that steal on Graveman - one all year. He has a good pick off move and is quick to the plate.
.

Boom shaka laka

[Coach34]

Pollo has given up 2 HR this year, Graveman has given up 4. Sure, Graveman is a groundball pitcher, but as you say Will - the stats don't lie.

not to mention there are very, very few HR's hit at Dudy Noble these days with these shitty bats

[SaltyDawg]

Does anyone know when Cohen is announcing the starter for UCA? I'd imagine he's going back and forth like us.

[The Croom Diaries]

Graveman has also pitched 20 more innings than Pollo. 2 HR's in 20 more innings isn't enough to use as a measuring stick IMO. Plus, Pollo got several midweek innings against weaker opponents and their midweek starters.

There's no doubt that Graveman uses sink and Pollo doesn't as much. That makes Graveman a better option against a HR hitting club. That being said, Stratton had not given up many bombs last year either, yet Samford pounded him. Stats don't mean that someone won't make a mistake pitch and give up a bomb.

The comment was about Mercer hitting a bunch of home runs. Well, Pollo doesn't give up many as Graveman as the comment inferred. I agree, Pollo is more likely to give up a HR based on his style of pitching...but the comment is incorrect based on the actual numbers. To say we don't know that Pollo won't make a mistake, that is entirely different argument as to which pitcher has more mistakes.

Neither pitcher gives up that many HR. Both of them only had one against them all of last year. But I'd rather not base who my pitcher will be out of a position of fear, which is what you'd be doing if you're afraid of Mercer's hitters.

[The Croom Diaries]

Plus, Pollo got several midweek innings against weaker opponents and their midweek starters.



All 4 of Graveman's HR allowed were in SEC play as were Pollo's 2 HR allowed. Graveman gave up a HR every 16.67 IP in SEC. Pollo gave up a HR every 24.16 IP in SEC.

Small sample size, not accurate. Whatever. But it's not like Pollo has given up 8 HR to Graveman's 4. It's not a clear cut difference to say that Pollo will allow more home runs. At best they are equal.

[Sandman14]

Does anyone know when Cohen is announcing the starter for UCA? I'd imagine he's going back and forth like us.

Hilarious. Cohen has not thought for one single second about this. THat's why this debate is so interesting. One of the top 10 college baseball coaches in the country, who is our coach, has not thought for one second about pitching graveman. I promise you. He'd laugh his ass off. He's pitching Pollo and never even considered anything else.

[Sandman14]

Not true. It's quite common for a host to save their Ace for the second game of the Regional. I don't have stats, but I know it happens a lot. Florida State did it last year in fact, I'm pretty sure.

Umm...no. FSU was the no. 3 overall seed. I specifically said hosts that are not national seeds. THe reason is simple. there are only 2 situations where you even DREAM of going away from your routine. They are when you are so outgunned you are trying for an edge (like Samford last year), or when you are so much better than the 4 that you don't want to waste (FSU last year).

We don't fit in either.

And regardless, many legendary coaches wouldn't go away from their routine regardless. The worst feeling in the world is going home and realizing you got too smart for your own damn good. you run you best guy out there and you win. Then you do the same thing the next game. and the next. and the next.

[Sandman14]

in our situation, obviously "best guy" doesn't even apply because we have not "best guy." we just have a bunch of sub-par starters. for this reason, you go with what brung you. graveman has settled nicely into the saturday role. you don't change that. and it just so happens that we will play a better team on Saturday, so it works out perfectly.

[CadaverDawg]

THe reason is simple. there are only 2 situations where you even DREAM of going away from your routine. They are when you are so outgunned you are trying for an edge (like Samford last year), or when you are so much better than the 4 that you don't want to waste (FSU last year).

We don't fit in either.

And regardless, many legendary coaches wouldn't go away from their routine regardless. The worst feeling in the world is going home and realizing you got too smart for your own damn good. you run you best guy out there and you win. Then you do the same thing the next game. and the next. and the next.

I'm not in the camp that thinks we should change anything. I was simply saying it happens a lot more than you were saying.

If you limit it to non-National Seeds, then you are eliminating half the #1's in the field. That would be dumb. Hell, even Ole Miss is saving Wahl for NCState and NCState is saving Rodon. Neither of those are Natty seeds and OM is a 2. I'm just saying that your "close to zero" is wrong....and it is.

[Quaoarsking]

Saving the ace is standard, unless the 4 seed might legitimately beat you.

[CadaverDawg]

And regardless, many legendary coaches wouldn't go away from their routine regardless.

And by the way, what the hell kind of statement is that? ^^

I agree with you that we should stick to the rotation, but to act like it's too dumb to discuss, while throwing out reasons like the one above, is silly.

[CadaverDawg]

Saving the ace is standard, unless the 4 seed might legitimately beat you.

Exactly

[Coach34]

Saving the ace is standard, unless the 4 seed might legitimately beat you.

Or if you are Ron Polk

[CadaverDawg]

Or if you are Ron Polk

Haha yep

[theloungeinleft]

Both are seniors and experienced. I feel like either will get it done Friday night. Dudy Noble will be a madhouse.

[The Croom Diaries]

Maybe Cohen was reading this thread because it was just announced that Kendall Graveman will start Friday.

[mparkerfd20]

Hilarious. Cohen has not thought for one single second about this. THat's why this debate is so interesting. One of the top 10 college baseball coaches in the country, who is our coach, has not thought for one second about pitching graveman. I promise you. He'd laugh his ass off. He's pitching Pollo and never even considered anything else.

You know Cohen over thinks everything. Gravemen is pitching... So there's that.

[Sandman14]

I'm an idiot.

Or Cohen is an idiot.

Or we both are idiots.

Totally shocked by this.

[Coach34]

I'm an idiot.

Or Cohen is an idiot.

Or we both are idiots.

Totally shocked by this.

way to show up- good job