Tdawg
09-23-2014, 09:10 AM
I look at Football Outsiders (www.footballoutsiders.com) as my main source for CFB rankings. They are meaningful, opponent adjusted measurements of a team's overall performance as well as specific units and situations. During this off week, we can take a look at some of the numbers out there to see how we measure up nationally, within the conference and, more specifically, against our upcoming opponent. First, a look at the S&P+ ranking for the top 10 + SEC teams. S&P+, put simply, is a measurement of a teams offensive and defensive efficiency and explosiveness, on an opponent adjusted basis:
1. Alabama
2. Baylor
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Texas A&M
6. Stanford
7. Florida St.
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi St.
10. Michigan St.
13. LSU
14. Auburn
16. Georgia
23. S. Carolina
28. Missouri
31. Arkansas
45. Florida
46. Tennessee
67. Kentucky
80. Vanderbilt
Now, bear in mind that there are still some preseason assumptions built in to the data at this point in the season. Much of that has been filtered out and replaced by this season's data, but the model won't be completely clean until Week 7. Interesting numbers, right? Let's move on to offensive ratings below. We will again list the top 10 teams + the SEC teams. You'll see an overall ranking and then you will see a ranking for Efficiency (SR) explosiveness (PPP), rushing, passing, ranking on standard downs and ranking on passing downs:
Rank
Team
Success Rate
Points Per Play
Rushing
Passing
Standard Downs
Passing Downs
1
Oregon
6
5
8
3
3
18
2
Baylor
51
1
19
1
4
1
3
Arkansas
2
50
1
33
8
5
4
Texas A&M
1
22
4
5
1
10
5
Alabama
5
32
28
7
13
20
6
Arizona St
7
8
2
14
2
35
7
Georgia
29
13
3
76
12
46
8
Michigan St
9
16
33
2
11
6
9
Mississippi St
10
24
17
10
9
24
10
S. Carolina
38
59
56
39
49
44
15
Ole Miss
16
25
97
6
18
31
26
Auburn
18
78
54
16
54
19
27
LSU
100
21
90
23
79
49
31
Missoui
23
61
57
20
39
39
36
Florida
78
65
39
94
96
15
69
Kentucky
70
33
45
66
61
47
85
Tennessee
111
49
101
99
107
85
104
Vanderbilt
104
119
102
113
97
122
From this information we can glean that we have been an extremely efficient offense (10th nationally, unadjusted) and a top 25 offense when it comes to explosiveness. We are balanced in our attack ranking in the top 17 in both running game and passing game efficiency/explosiveness. If there is a weakness, which 24th nationally really can't be considered a weakness, it's when opposing defenses put us in obvious passing situations (as defined by this data being 2nd and 8+ or 3rd/4th and 5+). Interestingly, in A&M, you find the most efficient team in the country offensively. While their ranking of 22nd in explosivenss is respectable, it tells you that A&M is a machine in staying ahead of the chains and generating first downs. A successful play, for the record, is defined by this rating methodology as gaining 50% or more of yards to gain on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd/4th down. However, A&M really doesn't struggle when you get them behind the chains as they're 10th nationally in passing situations. It's just a damn good offense we are going up against that can run the ball and pass the ball. Let's look at the defensive numbers to see if we can find any matchup advantages/disadvantages for either team:
1
Stanford
9
2
8
6
6
5
2
Louisville
2
122
10
30
3
108
3
Oklahoma
6
56
9
18
12
27
4
Alabama
22
17
4
24
5
47
5
Penn St
4
67
16
16
9
22
6
Wisconsin
7
98
12
50
18
36
7
Michigan
8
82
5
41
16
40
8
Ole Miss
37
3
49
4
4
11
9
Clemson
32
94
102
15
71
70
10
Baylor
1
1
1
1
1
1
14
LSU
12
120
86
19
57
38
16
Auburn
50
71
38
79
54
52
20
Mississippi St
11
63
3
43
11
33
21
Texas A&M
10
51
11
28
8
48
29
Tennessee
37
30
30
31
17
54
36
Missouri
46
62
75
26
85
14
40
Georgia
52
70
46
83
41
87
52
Vanderbilt
83
86
55
104
77
88
61
Kentucky
67
13
63
35
36
83
62
S. Carolina
212
74
104
109
109
98
66
Florida
78
102
33
118
65
115
98
Arkansas
95
54
61
102
76
105
So, it's a battle of strenth-on-strength when A&M has the ball. They highly efficient, machine like offense will go up against our highly efficient, machine-like defense that makes a habit of putting teams behind the chains. The problem is, A&M doesn't struggle offensively when behind the down-and-distance, but we do struggle defensively. Our weakness IS in the secondary and the passing game and we struggle to make plays on obvious passing downs. It's also many of these situations that have led to the explosive plays we've allowed that put us in the bottom half of the country. It seems a given that A&M will find itself in some 2nd and 3rd and long situations--the key is the to keep the ball in front of the 3rd level and get off the field. The stats, however, say this is an advantage to A&M.
We are an extremely balanced offense--as mentioned above, our only "struggles" come in obvious passing situations. When we stay ahead of the down-and-distance, we are very efficient and dangerous. The good news is that A&M's defense ranks 51st in efficiency--meaning they allow teams to stay ahead of schedule on offense. A&M has been outstanding at limiting explosive plays, but the flip side of that is they are giving up yards on most plays. If the Dogs can be patient on offense then we should be able to sustain long drives that result in points. The key will be red-zone play. We shouldn't have much of a problem moving the ball between the 20's, but these drives need to turn in to touchdowns--not FG (attempts).
Bottom line, if we limit explosive plays and stay patient on offense, even if we get behind a score or 2, then we should be very well positioned to have a chance to win this game in the 4th quarter.
1. Alabama
2. Baylor
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Texas A&M
6. Stanford
7. Florida St.
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi St.
10. Michigan St.
13. LSU
14. Auburn
16. Georgia
23. S. Carolina
28. Missouri
31. Arkansas
45. Florida
46. Tennessee
67. Kentucky
80. Vanderbilt
Now, bear in mind that there are still some preseason assumptions built in to the data at this point in the season. Much of that has been filtered out and replaced by this season's data, but the model won't be completely clean until Week 7. Interesting numbers, right? Let's move on to offensive ratings below. We will again list the top 10 teams + the SEC teams. You'll see an overall ranking and then you will see a ranking for Efficiency (SR) explosiveness (PPP), rushing, passing, ranking on standard downs and ranking on passing downs:
Rank
Team
Success Rate
Points Per Play
Rushing
Passing
Standard Downs
Passing Downs
1
Oregon
6
5
8
3
3
18
2
Baylor
51
1
19
1
4
1
3
Arkansas
2
50
1
33
8
5
4
Texas A&M
1
22
4
5
1
10
5
Alabama
5
32
28
7
13
20
6
Arizona St
7
8
2
14
2
35
7
Georgia
29
13
3
76
12
46
8
Michigan St
9
16
33
2
11
6
9
Mississippi St
10
24
17
10
9
24
10
S. Carolina
38
59
56
39
49
44
15
Ole Miss
16
25
97
6
18
31
26
Auburn
18
78
54
16
54
19
27
LSU
100
21
90
23
79
49
31
Missoui
23
61
57
20
39
39
36
Florida
78
65
39
94
96
15
69
Kentucky
70
33
45
66
61
47
85
Tennessee
111
49
101
99
107
85
104
Vanderbilt
104
119
102
113
97
122
From this information we can glean that we have been an extremely efficient offense (10th nationally, unadjusted) and a top 25 offense when it comes to explosiveness. We are balanced in our attack ranking in the top 17 in both running game and passing game efficiency/explosiveness. If there is a weakness, which 24th nationally really can't be considered a weakness, it's when opposing defenses put us in obvious passing situations (as defined by this data being 2nd and 8+ or 3rd/4th and 5+). Interestingly, in A&M, you find the most efficient team in the country offensively. While their ranking of 22nd in explosivenss is respectable, it tells you that A&M is a machine in staying ahead of the chains and generating first downs. A successful play, for the record, is defined by this rating methodology as gaining 50% or more of yards to gain on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd/4th down. However, A&M really doesn't struggle when you get them behind the chains as they're 10th nationally in passing situations. It's just a damn good offense we are going up against that can run the ball and pass the ball. Let's look at the defensive numbers to see if we can find any matchup advantages/disadvantages for either team:
1
Stanford
9
2
8
6
6
5
2
Louisville
2
122
10
30
3
108
3
Oklahoma
6
56
9
18
12
27
4
Alabama
22
17
4
24
5
47
5
Penn St
4
67
16
16
9
22
6
Wisconsin
7
98
12
50
18
36
7
Michigan
8
82
5
41
16
40
8
Ole Miss
37
3
49
4
4
11
9
Clemson
32
94
102
15
71
70
10
Baylor
1
1
1
1
1
1
14
LSU
12
120
86
19
57
38
16
Auburn
50
71
38
79
54
52
20
Mississippi St
11
63
3
43
11
33
21
Texas A&M
10
51
11
28
8
48
29
Tennessee
37
30
30
31
17
54
36
Missouri
46
62
75
26
85
14
40
Georgia
52
70
46
83
41
87
52
Vanderbilt
83
86
55
104
77
88
61
Kentucky
67
13
63
35
36
83
62
S. Carolina
212
74
104
109
109
98
66
Florida
78
102
33
118
65
115
98
Arkansas
95
54
61
102
76
105
So, it's a battle of strenth-on-strength when A&M has the ball. They highly efficient, machine like offense will go up against our highly efficient, machine-like defense that makes a habit of putting teams behind the chains. The problem is, A&M doesn't struggle offensively when behind the down-and-distance, but we do struggle defensively. Our weakness IS in the secondary and the passing game and we struggle to make plays on obvious passing downs. It's also many of these situations that have led to the explosive plays we've allowed that put us in the bottom half of the country. It seems a given that A&M will find itself in some 2nd and 3rd and long situations--the key is the to keep the ball in front of the 3rd level and get off the field. The stats, however, say this is an advantage to A&M.
We are an extremely balanced offense--as mentioned above, our only "struggles" come in obvious passing situations. When we stay ahead of the down-and-distance, we are very efficient and dangerous. The good news is that A&M's defense ranks 51st in efficiency--meaning they allow teams to stay ahead of schedule on offense. A&M has been outstanding at limiting explosive plays, but the flip side of that is they are giving up yards on most plays. If the Dogs can be patient on offense then we should be able to sustain long drives that result in points. The key will be red-zone play. We shouldn't have much of a problem moving the ball between the 20's, but these drives need to turn in to touchdowns--not FG (attempts).
Bottom line, if we limit explosive plays and stay patient on offense, even if we get behind a score or 2, then we should be very well positioned to have a chance to win this game in the 4th quarter.