Listening to Dave Bartoo on OOB

[cheewgumm]

He gives us no chance. I think most people do not, becuase of the "stars" argumnet. They cant really look at each and every team to compare players...you pretty much just compare talent and pick a winner, which I bet 97% of the time is an accurate way of looking at it.

However, this year is the best case study for the "stars dont matter " folks, at least in regards to MSU. If we can win this year, then the case can be made. However, if we lost to: LSU: AUB: A&M: BAMA and possibly OM, then we should jsut start counting stars.

For the record I think stars do matter...but Mullen should get credit for finding some hidden talent and developing talent.

[cheewgumm]

One thing I DO think they are over-estimating is how muchmore talented LSU is than us. I don't think that is true. Yes, on OL and their DBs are better, but they are not as much more talented as I think BO thinks.

[maroonmania]

Well THE primary reason all the pundits think that OM has passed us in 3 short years with Hugh Freeze is due to stars and his recruiting prowess. Will be very interesting to see how the year plays out and how the "development" program competes with the "recruiting stars" program.

[The Croom Diaries]

LSU probably has a lot more God-given ability than State on their team. We are counting on experience and coaching to make up the difference (although LSU has some damn good coaches too).

[sandwolf]

I am pretty sure that Bartoo's whole model is based off of recruiting rankings, so this really isn't surprising.

[ShotgunDawg]

I like Dave Bartoo, as he is very helpful in understanding cross conference and smaller conference matchups. For example, this morning he said that Oklahoma and Texas A&M are basically the same team. I find that interesting and it helps me understand the Macro-landscape of college football.

However, when comparing teams on the micro-scale, his model kinda of states the obvious and offers no real analysis of the game and matchups. For example: LSU has finished higher in the recruiting rankings than MSU, LSU is playing at home, and LSU doesn't have a bad coach, thus, LSU should be favored. Too me this kinda of states the obvious, as everyone on this board has completely agreed that LSU should be favored in this game. However, what Bartoo's model doesn't take into consideration is how the two teams have played this season, how the two teams match-up strength for strength & weakness for weakness, which team has the better QB (which is by far the most important position on the field), etc... It's these micro-match-up, player for player reasons that MSU fans think we have a real shot to win this game.

What I have noticed is that the "Vegas" guys are all saying LSU will win, and the College Football experts (Brad Edwards, Mike Detilleier, Barrett Sallee (Not sure he's an expert), and Paul Finebaum are all saying that MSU has a real chance here.

These two sides have been very split throughout the week and there is a good reason why:

Vegas guys - The key to making money in Vegas is to be discipline with a process. If you are disciplined and always bet on the team that has higher ranked players, home field advantage, and a adequate coach, then you will win more than you will lose. Thus the Vegas guys see this game and clearly see that they should be betting on LSU. They are correct in that.

College Football experts - These guys are usually SEC guys that aren't betting on their games and thus don't have to stay disciplined to a process or sell a product. These guys are then able to actually break the games down and see that MSU has a real shot.

Neither side is wrong or right, they just think from different perspectives. Bo doesn't understand this difference and would also say that this post is something a 14 year old would post. He may be right, but that means that a 14 year old is smarter than him.

[UMCDawg16]

I like Dave Bartoo, as he is very helpful in understanding cross conference and smaller conference matchups. For example, this morning he said that Oklahoma and Texas A&M are basically the same team. I find that interesting and it helps me understand the Macro-landscape of college football.

However, when comparing teams on the micro-scale, his model kinda of states the obvious and offers no real analysis of the game and matchups. For example: LSU has finished higher in the recruiting rankings than MSU, LSU is playing at home, and LSU doesn't have a bad coach, thus, LSU should be favored. Too me this kinda of states the obvious, as everyone on this board has completely agreed that LSU should be favored in this game. However, what Bartoo's model doesn't take into consideration is how the two teams have played this season, how the two teams match-up strength for strength & weakness for weakness, which team has the better QB (which is by far the most important position on the field), etc... It's these micro-match-up, player for player reasons that MSU fans think we have a real shot to win this game.

What I have noticed is that the "Vegas" guys are all saying LSU will win, and the College Football experts (Brad Edwards, Mike Detilleier, Barrett Sallee (Not sure he's an expert), and Paul Finebaum are all saying that MSU has a real chance here.

These two sides have been very split throughout the week and there is a good reason why:

Vegas guys - The key to making money in Vegas is to be discipline with a process. If you are disciplined and always bet on the team that has higher ranked players, home field advantage, and a adequate coach, then you will win more than you will lose. Thus the Vegas guys see this game and clearly see that they should be betting on LSU. They are correct in that.

College Football experts - These guys are usually SEC guys that aren't betting on their games and thus don't have to stay disciplined to a process or sell a product. These guys are then able to actually break the games down and see that MSU has a real shot.

Neither side is wrong or right, they just think from different perspectives. Bo doesn't understand this difference and would also say that this post is something a 14 year old would post. He may be right, but that means that a 14 year old is smarter than him.

GREAT breakdown and post. Bartoo is 100% numbers and recruiting rankings driven, not a surprising pick from him.

[Brahmabull]

I believe this game will be determined by who wins the turnover battle. Plain and simple

[ShotgunDawg]

GREAT breakdown and post. Bartoo is 100% numbers and recruiting rankings driven, not a surprising pick from him.

Absolutely. Once you understand what the "expert's" job is and what he is trying to sell, it becomes very easy to predict what type of prediction he will make.

[Technetium]

I believe this game will be determined by who wins the turnover battle. Plain and simple

I believe this game will be determined by who scores the most points...

[maroonmania]

LSU probably has a lot more God-given ability than State on their team. We are counting on experience and coaching to make up the difference (although LSU has some damn good coaches too).

Agreed, Cameron and Cheavis might be the best set of coordinators in the SEC.

[maroonmania]

I like Dave Bartoo, as he is very helpful in understanding cross conference and smaller conference matchups. For example, this morning he said that Oklahoma and Texas A&M are basically the same team. I find that interesting and it helps me understand the Macro-landscape of college football.

However, when comparing teams on the micro-scale, his model kinda of states the obvious and offers no real analysis of the game and matchups. For example: LSU has finished higher in the recruiting rankings than MSU, LSU is playing at home, and LSU doesn't have a bad coach, thus, LSU should be favored. Too me this kinda of states the obvious, as everyone on this board has completely agreed that LSU should be favored in this game. However, what Bartoo's model doesn't take into consideration is how the two teams have played this season, how the two teams match-up strength for strength & weakness for weakness, which team has the better QB (which is by far the most important position on the field), etc... It's these micro-match-up, player for player reasons that MSU fans think we have a real shot to win this game.

What I have noticed is that the "Vegas" guys are all saying LSU will win, and the College Football experts (Brad Edwards, Mike Detilleier, Barrett Sallee (Not sure he's an expert), and Paul Finebaum are all saying that MSU has a real chance here.

These two sides have been very split throughout the week and there is a good reason why:

Vegas guys - The key to making money in Vegas is to be discipline with a process. If you are disciplined and always bet on the team that has higher ranked players, home field advantage, and a adequate coach, then you will win more than you will lose. Thus the Vegas guys see this game and clearly see that they should be betting on LSU. They are correct in that.

College Football experts - These guys are usually SEC guys that aren't betting on their games and thus don't have to stay disciplined to a process or sell a product. These guys are then able to actually break the games down and see that MSU has a real shot.

Neither side is wrong or right, they just think from different perspectives. Bo doesn't understand this difference and would also say that this post is something a 14 year old would post. He may be right, but that means that a 14 year old is smarter than him.

A team that I would think would fly in the face of Bartoo's assessments is Missouri. That is a team there that doesn't have consistent Top 25 classes and doesn't even have a huge home field advantage but won the SEC East last year and I could easily see them doing it again this year. And they have a good coach but I don't think most would say Pinkel is in the Top 3 or 4 coaches in the conference.

[Out of Bounds]

You're right Pinkel is a helluva coach. Evaluating/Recruiting/Development, Pinkel is outstanding. But comparing the East v. West is apples and oranges, especially the last 5 yrs.

[HoopsDawg]

We have recruiting stars on defense. And two of our 2 star guys are NFL prospects.

Look at our LB's:

Beni Brown: 4 star, offered by Bama and AU
B-Mac: 2nd or 3rd rounder in the upcoming NFL draft
Matt Wells: 4 star

D-line:
Eulls, 4 star
CJ, 5 star
Preston Smith, mid to late round NFL draft pick
Nick James, 4 star, LSU offer
PJ Jones, Bama and UT offer

Secondary:
Will Redmond, 4 star, UGA offer
Justin Cox, 4 star, Bama offer

So it's not like there's not a lot of talent on our defense.

We don't have the star power on our O-line and we don't have a WR that can run like Dural. Sure LSU has 4 top RB's, but you can only play 1. And no one would trade Dak for Jennings.

I would feel pretty good about us winning this game if it were at home and we had a kicker. As it stands, I still think we keep it close.

[confucius say]

The reason we have a shot is bc our qb is capable of playing like a 5 star and their qb is capable of playing like a 2 star.

[maroonmania]

You're right Pinkel is a helluva coach. Evaluating/Recruiting/Development, Pinkel is outstanding. But comparing the East v. West is apples and oranges, especially the last 5 yrs.

True the SEC East is significantly weaker than the West but I doubt Bartoo would give us much of a chance to beat Georgia or South Carolina either.

[DawgPoundtheRock]

The most important recruit Les Miles has had in the last 10 years is John Chavis (7*). Do you remember what LSU's D was like before Chavis?

[BulldogBear]

With the exception of perhaps a few wins over KY, EVERY SEC GAME we've won in the last decade has been against superior talent, sometimes vastly. Stars mean nothing. Talent at the time of snap/kickoff has more affect. Righ now, Dak would be rated a "5 star" player by anyone with half a brain.