Goat Holder
09-15-2014, 11:27 AM
http://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?113425-Early-week-Auburn-thoughts
1. I don't think we will win, but Auburn doesn't scare me.
2. Marshall is nothing special. Good on his feet, strong arm, but inaccurate and not a great decision maker. He also doesn't have a dependable target. In the past there's been a go to guy like Blake or Lutzenkirchen or Darvin Adams. This team doesn't have one, but we seem to have a way of helping other teams find their go to guy.
3. I don't think Auburn can run on us a lot between the tackles. The O-line is decent but not great. Mason and CAP are strong runners though, and not likely to fall down on first contact. What scares me more is Corey Grant on the jet sweeps. We saw how weak our edges were when OSU started stretching things out. Think back to Gus's offense in 2009 and 2011 (without Cam). He had Onterrio McCalebb running sideline to sideline and Tate or Dyer pounding things between the hashes. Same concept, different guys.
4. Auburn could help us out a lot of they don't get their penalty situation under control. Five in the first game, and nine more Saturday night. We also have 14 in two games, but 11 of ours were against OSU. At least we are trending in the right direction.
5. Owens, Blackson, Adams, Wright, etc on their D-line have to be licking their chops. Absolutely the key to the game in my mind - our OL vs their DL. If we don't see some guys make massive improvements, we're gonna struggle, and not just in this game.
6. The ever important special teams is a good matchup. Baker has been the more consistent punter but Clark can boom one at any point. Both teams have dynamic KOR men, so that's a wash too. But Parkey is as dependable as they come as a FG kicker. And Bell....well...he's Bell. You just never know what you're getting there.
7. J-H has been as dead a place as I have ever seen it the first two games. I didn't go to WSU, but everyone talked about it afterwards. Saturday I saw it for myself. There's nothing there at this point in time to be intimidated by. I don't know/care what they reported as attendance, but there weren't more than 75,000 people there. An SEC game will be different I know, but it's a long way from the J-H of recent years.
Bottom line, it's a game we CAN win, but I doubt we WILL win. Auburn will make just enough plays, and they'll cover the -6 fairly easily, something like 27-17.
Now....don't look at this in ABSOLUTES. Just notice the similarities. Especially the summary sentence at the end. This is more of a gut-feeling type post than a statistical analysis. On paper, it appears good for us with some weaknesses that are concerning. We'll have every chance to win it but due to LSU making some freak plays they will win AND PROBABLY COVER.
ETA: SORRY!!! Auburn didn't cover, but they won the damn game. Geez. That's my point.
1. I don't think we will win, but Auburn doesn't scare me.
2. Marshall is nothing special. Good on his feet, strong arm, but inaccurate and not a great decision maker. He also doesn't have a dependable target. In the past there's been a go to guy like Blake or Lutzenkirchen or Darvin Adams. This team doesn't have one, but we seem to have a way of helping other teams find their go to guy.
3. I don't think Auburn can run on us a lot between the tackles. The O-line is decent but not great. Mason and CAP are strong runners though, and not likely to fall down on first contact. What scares me more is Corey Grant on the jet sweeps. We saw how weak our edges were when OSU started stretching things out. Think back to Gus's offense in 2009 and 2011 (without Cam). He had Onterrio McCalebb running sideline to sideline and Tate or Dyer pounding things between the hashes. Same concept, different guys.
4. Auburn could help us out a lot of they don't get their penalty situation under control. Five in the first game, and nine more Saturday night. We also have 14 in two games, but 11 of ours were against OSU. At least we are trending in the right direction.
5. Owens, Blackson, Adams, Wright, etc on their D-line have to be licking their chops. Absolutely the key to the game in my mind - our OL vs their DL. If we don't see some guys make massive improvements, we're gonna struggle, and not just in this game.
6. The ever important special teams is a good matchup. Baker has been the more consistent punter but Clark can boom one at any point. Both teams have dynamic KOR men, so that's a wash too. But Parkey is as dependable as they come as a FG kicker. And Bell....well...he's Bell. You just never know what you're getting there.
7. J-H has been as dead a place as I have ever seen it the first two games. I didn't go to WSU, but everyone talked about it afterwards. Saturday I saw it for myself. There's nothing there at this point in time to be intimidated by. I don't know/care what they reported as attendance, but there weren't more than 75,000 people there. An SEC game will be different I know, but it's a long way from the J-H of recent years.
Bottom line, it's a game we CAN win, but I doubt we WILL win. Auburn will make just enough plays, and they'll cover the -6 fairly easily, something like 27-17.
Now....don't look at this in ABSOLUTES. Just notice the similarities. Especially the summary sentence at the end. This is more of a gut-feeling type post than a statistical analysis. On paper, it appears good for us with some weaknesses that are concerning. We'll have every chance to win it but due to LSU making some freak plays they will win AND PROBABLY COVER.
ETA: SORRY!!! Auburn didn't cover, but they won the damn game. Geez. That's my point.