Hey TheRef.... Im beginning to hear rumblings of

[missouridawg]

An extremely snowy winter across the entire US beginning much earlier than normal (Calgary actually got snow today). What are your thoughts on the doom-and-gloom thats starting to fester?

[LiterallyPolice]

Doom and gloom? I hope the slopes of NC/VA/WV get dumped on early and often. I saw snow for the first time when I was 23 and I've enjoyed sliding down mountains ever since.

[RougeDawg]

An extremely snowy winter across the entire US beginning much earlier than normal (Calgary actually got snow today). What are your thoughts on the doom-and-gloom thats starting to fester?

Maybe we should ask some of the global warming believers what they think.**

[TheRef]

It's going to be colder than during the Summer. That's all I know...Sorry about me seeming a little cynical or anything like that. As I, or any other Meteorologist worth a damn, will tell you, any forecast past three days is magic. And these "Seasonal Forecasts" are just that...magic. 99 times out of 100 they are wrong. But the reason why people put these out and claim them to be in any way reputable, is because people ask the question all the time. "Is it going to be a snowy Winter?" "Is it going to rain on my wedding in 9 months?" "Will my [Insert Plant Here] survive this Winter?" These things cannot be answered. Eventually in the very far future we will be able to answer this question. But until some genius creates a numerical prediction model that will be able to accurately predict weather patterns months in advance, we'll just have to deal with hack jobs making ridiculous "forecasts" for the pure amount of page views.

/rant

[MaxedOutMaroon]

No clue where you got this information, but I noticed it on Facebook. Therefore, I tell you don't believe what you see on there. Always confirm via google search "news" tab. Like all the ridiculous ISIS stuff on the "southern border"

[preachermatt83]

Let is snow.. Makes the deer move.

[preachermatt83]

man, I just noticed how much my vcash account is struggling. Geez!

[shoeless joe]

Last year I was told that the high number of spiders in the woods meant an extremely cold winter...and then we had the coldest winter I can remember. So that seemed pretty accurate...

Unfortunately, I've seen much less spiders and their webs this year.

[starkvegasdawg]

I've seen what you are talking about. It is a fraudulent site. Think of it as the internet's version of the weekly world news in the grocery store checkout aisle. The same site reported Betty White died last week too.

[RougeDawg]

Been one of the more moderate cool Summers of my lifetime, so one would expect the winter to be cooler than normal. After all, the earth is currently in a cooling pattern, which is widely known. This is based on the Sun's radiation and solar flares being less than normal recently, but it takes a while for them to reach earth. But why would science explain anything?

[FlabLoser]

RE: > 3 day forecasts.... if the forecast is right more than 50% of the time, I'll take it. I look at 10-day forecasts frequently and they aren't a total crapshoot. The 10-day for the USM game had 80% rain in the afternoon. Then 24 hr forecast reported I think it was 60%. OK...

[Beaver]

Couple things here...

1. 5-10 day forecasts are generally created via model consensus. -- Meaning forecasters will look for 2 or more reputable long-term models (GFS, ECMWF, etc...) to be in decent agreement about a certain weather pattern. If models are not in agreement, forecasters can either choose a model to lean towards (based on previous model performance/model initialization) or go with a more climatic forecast (ex. it's June 15th so 40% chance of t-storms + hot temps on June 22nd sounds reasonable).
However, the reason people say 'anything past 3 days is magic' is because most weather patterns that impact us doesn't actually begin to evolve until around 3-4 days out. This is especially true in the late fall-winter-early spring when the upper-air flow (from the west) is extremely fast. A low pressure can form on the lee-side of the Rockies, move across the Plains and up into the Atlantic Seaboard while dragging a cold front that plows through Mississippi within a matter of a few days. So, though a long-term model may have forecasted the development of that low-pressure system several days before...forecasters can't be sure of it's exact location/strength until they can see it. Then they can begin to use short-term models combined with current conditions and their general weather knowledge to forecast actual & realistic impacts of the pattern (the low-pressure system in this example) for 2-3 day period... Because it's entirely possible that the low pressure never forms -- and no cold front ever drags across MS -- thus no rain-maker that was 'forecasted' 5-10 days out.

2. Seasonal forecasts mostly rely on climate models -- which mainly rely on 1. global water temps/teleconnections 2. solar radiation patterns 3. pattern recognition
Difficult to discuss this further w/o using too much jargon, but I agree with some reputable forecasters that are calling for a colder/snowier winter on the east coast and in the south -- basically because that area will be within a troughing pattern as opposed to a ridging pattern for the majority of the winter months. Having said that, a snowier winter in Starkville is basically like saying they'll get 5.3 inches instead of 2.2 inches from Dec-Feb. We're not talking major major impacts here -- just that it will likely be colder and thus a greater chance for more snowfall than the average winter.

[TheRef]

I like you, Beaver. You're okay in my book.

[dickiedawg]

I've seen what you are talking about. It is a fraudulent site. Think of it as the internet's version of the weekly world news in the grocery store checkout aisle. The same site reported Betty White died last week too.

The Betty White article was from a satire site and the headline read "Betty White dyes peacefully in her California home" or something similar- keyword Dyes. People can be idiots.

[starkvegasdawg]

Having said that, a snowier winter in Starkville is basically like saying they'll get 5.3 inches instead of 2.2 inches from Dec-Feb. We're not talking major major impacts here -- just that it will likely be colder and thus a greater chance for more snowfall than the average winter.

You do realize that if this part of the statement you just made gets out to the general public there won't be a loaf of bread or jug of milk to be found? I remember last year when they were predicting that ice storm I had to go into Kroger to refill a prescription the day before that was to start. Sweet mercy. There were literally two loaves of bread left on the shelves and no milk or bottled water at all. People were stocking up like they were preparing for a nuclear holocaust. All the register lines were back into the shopping aisles. I just wanted to get on the PA system and remind people that three days later the forecast high was 60 degrees. Nobody was going to have to resort to cannibalism to survive.

[Jack Lambert]

Isn't there a EL Nino this year winter? Seems to me everytime there is one we get a little white stuff.

[TheRef]

Isn't there a EL Nino this year winter? Seems to me everytime there is one we get a little white stuff.

The El Ni?o never set up.

[Jack Lambert]

The El Ni?o never set up.

So no El Nino?

[TheRef]

So no El Nino?

Not that I've seen. It might be borderline though.

[BulldogDX55]

The El Ni?o never set up.

Not that I Would ever doubt you on the weather, but I just read a Bloomberg article that says it could still set up.

[TheRef]

Not that I Would ever doubt you on the weather, but I just read a Bloomberg article that says it could still set up.

To be truthful, everyone has been saying that it would set up for a good six months. Could it set up? Sure! Will it? Doubtful.

[FlabLoser]

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?

[Martianlander]

Every time we miss an extra point it gets a degree cooler. Sure hope we get that fixed or it's going to be a cold, cold winter.

[TheRef]

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?

The thing that is holding us back with long term models is the fact that the fundamental equations of Meteorology, have the chaos theory built in. Each time you run the model, you could get a completely different outcome. One small change (I'm talking .1 degrees, .01 mb pressure, 1 kt wind speed change, 1 degree directional change) could completely change the outcome of the model. Also have to take into account the very bad observations we get at every level. Upper levels are even worse. Yeah we send up balloons, but the act of sending up balloons flaws the observations. It's actually quite pathetic all of our things are. Not only do we need more money, we need more observations. Better observation methods, better model parameters, etc. Will money help? Yeah. But not nearly as much as you'd think.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

You do realize that if this part of the statement you just made gets out to the general public there won't be a loaf of bread or jug of milk to be found? I remember last year when they were predicting that ice storm I had to go into Kroger to refill a prescription the day before that was to start. Sweet mercy. There were literally two loaves of bread left on the shelves and no milk or bottled water at all. People were stocking up like they were preparing for a nuclear holocaust. All the register lines were back into the shopping aisles. I just wanted to get on the PA system and remind people that three days later the forecast high was 60 degrees. Nobody was going to have to resort to cannibalism to survive.

These dumb shits kill me. It is going to snow for one day so panic. Why is it bread and milk. Wtf are they making? A milk sandwhich?

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

So no El Nino?

Spanish for.....The Nino

[TheRef]

Spanish for.....The Nino

Are you sure you never took a class under Dr. Jamie Dyer?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?
ETA: I see Ref beat me to the answer. Just read his and ignore mine. He almost has a degree and I am just a weather nut that likes to chase tornadoes. Advantage: Ref.

I'm not a certified meteorologist, but I'll take a stab at it and then some that are can fill in the blanks or correct me if I am wrong. All of those things in the universe are on set patterns that do not change. They've been doing that since God said "Let it be so." The weather in the past left distinct patterns that can be analyzed to see what already happened. But future weather is dependant on so many different variables that it makes your head hurt. And how strong one variable may be could be determined on another variable. If that one is just a little off then everything gets thrown off skew. The computer models are just best guesses on what will happen based on current observations from weather balloons, climate history, etc. They wrote the algorithyms to take all that into account and then create a guess (forecast) on what will happen based on that. But if just one little thing changes somewhere on the globe, then a low doesn't form or is stronger/weaker than first thought, A high pressure doesn't get the kick out they thought to bring a return flow over an area and a storm track is diverted. Just too many unknowns to be able to predict weather that many days out. Now, in the case of wintry precipitation in the south...temperature is the biggest key. We rarely can sustain temps below freezing with moisture in the air due to our latitude. That's what makes it so hard. All you need is for it to be 33 instead of 32 to be have either a crippling ice storm or a cold rain. That was the case last year. Starkville never got below 33 or 34 degrees so we shut everything down for a cold rain. Impossible to predict that kind of temperature accuracy right now. Will it improve in the future? Probably.

[starkvegasdawg]

Spanish for.....The Nino

Always heard that Dennys was Spanish for Next to La Quinta.

[preachermatt83]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

[LiterallyPolice]

The latest LiterallyPolice Weather Model (LPWM) is showing a strong possiblity of snow in the Oxford region if we beat LSU. I asked the LPWM to explain that logic (because yes, LPWM is competetly sentient). He replied "If MSU beats LSU, we know that hell has frozen over".

That LPWM.... he sucks at weather, but he's got a good sense of humor.