Why the SEC eventually goes after NC and Va markets...

[engie]

This about sums it up. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bwu_WciCAAANBvt.png:large

9 of the top 15 College Football viewership markets in week 1 in the country are already SEC markets. We're going to decide we need those other two at some point in the future.

Overall college football markets last year:
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/12222/m_20140905-tgyj-39kb.jpg

So, technically, we've already got 16 of the top 25 markets for CFB. Adding NC/Va schools would give us 21 of the top 25 -- only leaving Ohio(Dayton, Columbus) and Oklahoma(OK City, Tulsa) unconquered.

[AFDawg]

Being squarely between Memphis, NO, and Birmingham is a very good thing for the Mississippi schools.

[CadaverDawg]

Interesting.

So do we grab NCState or NC?

Do we get Virginia or Va Tech?

[messageboardsuperhero]

Interesting.

So do we grab NCState or NC?

Do we get Virginia or Va Tech?

If the SEC expands in VA and NC, I'd like to see us go after VA Tech and NC State. Duke and UNC will never split up- and personally, I really don't want to see UVA in the SEC. NC State and VA Tech just seem to fit in better with the SEC than those other schools, IMO.

[CadaverDawg]

If the SEC expands in VA and NC, I'd like to see us go after VA Tech and NC State. Duke and UNC will never split up- and personally, I really don't want to see UVA in the SEC. NC State and VA Tech just seem to fit in better with the SEC than those other schools, IMO.

I agree

[engie]

If the SEC expands in VA and NC, I'd like to see us go after VA Tech and NC State. Duke and UNC will never split up- and personally, I really don't want to see UVA in the SEC. NC State and VA Tech just seem to fit in better with the SEC than those other schools, IMO.

Money will separate anyone. No one is going broke together when they could be rich alone. UNC isn't "sinking" with Duke -- and they aren't both getting invited to the B1G for the same reason they aren't both getting invited to the SEC. Unless the ACC finds a way to get into the same financial stratosphere with the SEC, the actual war will be between the B1G and SEC for UVA and UNC -- and the winner is the one with the better tv deal most likely. Despite the "cultural" preferences we all have for Va Tech and Nc State -- the other two are the true gems in the overall scheme of things. They have both seen the Texas A&M scenario -- they aren't going to want to deal with that from their "little brothers" in spite of them probably being a bit better cultural fit in the B1G...

The Duke/UNC rivalry is a pretty new thing really fostered by Coach K. Before that, NcState was the bigger in-state rival -- and Virginia was and is to this day the biggest "all sport" rival for UNC. They both consider each other their biggest rivals outside of basketball and I believe it is actually the oldest athletics rivalry in the country. It's just not as pronounced currently because UVA has been irrelevant almost across the board...

If the B1G gets UNC, the SEC takes NCState, and Duke is screwed or joins the Big12, which they consider themselves far academically superior to. If the SEC gets UNC, the B1G gets Duke, and the Big12 gets NCState -- and it's a scenario where it works out for all of them pretty well. This is what will happen if "UNC takes care of Duke"... Wake is going out to pasture either way -- just no avoiding it.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Money will separate anyone. No one is going broke together when they could be rich alone. UNC isn't "sinking" with Duke -- and they aren't both getting invited to the B1G for the same reason they aren't both getting invited to the SEC. Unless the ACC finds a way to get into the same financial stratosphere with the SEC, the actual war will be between the B1G and SEC for UVA and UNC -- and the winner is the one with the better tv deal most likely. Despite the "cultural" preferences we all have for Va Tech and Nc State -- the other two are the true gems in the overall scheme of things. They have both seen the Texas A&M scenario -- they aren't going to want to deal with that from their "little brothers" in spite of them probably being a bit better cultural fit in the B1G...

The Duke/UNC rivalry is a pretty new thing really fostered by Coach K. Before that, NcState was the bigger in-state rival -- and Virginia was and is to this day the biggest "all sport" rival for UNC. They both consider each other their biggest rivals outside of basketball and I believe it is actually the oldest athletics rivalry in the country. It's just not as pronounced currently because UVA has been irrelevant almost across the board...

If the B1G gets UNC, the SEC takes NCState, and Duke is screwed or joins the Big12, which they consider themselves far academically superior to. If the SEC gets UNC, the B1G gets Duke, and the Big12 gets NCState -- and it's a scenario where it works out for all of them pretty well. This is what will happen if "UNC takes care of Duke"... Wake is going out to pasture either way -- just no avoiding it.

I get UNC- but how is UVA any more of a gem than VA Tech? I suppose they are the "flagship" or whatever, and UVA probably has some political advantages.

Personally, I've just never seen VT as "lesser" than UVA... Maybe that's just me though.

[War Machine Dawg]

I've been saying all along it'll be NC & and a pick 'em with the VA schools. Personally, I'd kinda like to get VA over VA Tech just for baseball and academics. But thinking NC won't leave Dook is crazy talk. They've seen how the power dynamic has shifted in TX with aTm joining the SEC and almost immediately bypassing UT. No way in hell they're letting that happen with NC State. Just put it in stone, NC IS coming to the SEC. It's just a matter of when.

[BulldogBear]

I get UNC- but how is UVA any more of a gem than VA Tech? I suppose they are the "flagship" or whatever, and UVA probably has some political advantages.

Personally, I've just never seen VT as "lesser" than UVA... Maybe that's just me though.

Academics. Much bigger deal to Big Ten than us.

[Steakonastick]

I think nc-state will number 15. They will sign up today. I think the 16th offer will go to Maryland. Just like mizzouri this is move to get into new households. With Missouri came St Louis and Kansas City. Maryland brings Baltimore, and D.C.

[engie]

I think the 16th offer will go to Maryland. Just like mizzouri this is move to get into new households. With Missouri came St Louis and Kansas City. Maryland brings Baltimore, and D.C.

We aren't taking a B1G school. You can forget that one...

[Apoplectic]

We aren't taking a B1G school. You can forget that one...


Our targets are AAU members UNC and UVa. They will get a full court blitz and an offer they cant refuse. Lil bro A/M leap-frogging mighty Tu only strengthens our hand....that and an eventual $100M annual payday.

[engie]

I get UNC- but how is UVA any more of a gem than VA Tech? I suppose they are the "flagship" or whatever, and UVA probably has some political advantages.

Personally, I've just never seen VT as "lesser" than UVA... Maybe that's just me though.

UVA is arguably the best public school in the country in one of the best college towns there is. Our country was pretty literally founded there with many of the founding fathers being involved with UVA. While they are similar to OM in their elitist ways -- they actually are what they pretend to be for the most part -- making it so much less annoying to me. Their endowment is $5.2bil to $660mil for Va Tech. In terms of money, Va Tech is the 6th or 7th largest university in Virginia. UVA leads their rivalry in everything other than football and wrestling. Football rivalry was 39-36-5 in favor of Va Tech when Beamer established total dominance in the Commonwealth Cup in 99.

My problem with Va Tech is that I don't know that the snapshot we've got of them over most of our football watching lifetimes "is what they really are". It certainly wasn't their reality pre-Beamer. Will it be post-Beamer? That could go either way. They made a tremendous hire that has stuck with them through a zillion other/better opportunities and have built a powerhouse that just may self-sustain or get better or may fall apart without them. Who knows? That's not only true for the HC position, but also his defensive coordinator, who has been one of the best in college football for 2+ decades. Even with all of his success and UVA's floundering, Va Tech's Lane Stadium only seats about 4k more than Scott Stadium at UVA right now. I was surprised by that...

I just see UVA as the safer overall bet. I might feel differently a few years post-Beamer if Va Tech holds it's course. The right person is going to eventually go to UVA and wreck shit in the same way O'Conner has in baseball though IMO and basically become Stanford of the east coast. Could be wrong -- but I certainly see the potential there.

These(Va Tech) guys are damn sure a perfect cultural fit for the SEC. No denying that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blzftASduNc

[Tdawg]

Would Cincinnati be an awful choice? If it's about TV sets, wouldn't Ohio make sense?

[engie]

Would Cincinnati be an awful choice? If it's about TV sets, wouldn't Ohio make sense?

You've got to actually have high enough demand in the markets you are attempting to pull to force it onto their basic cable providers @ $1.40 per to make expansion worthwhile. I just don't think Ohio cares much about Cinci in any sport -- and if they don't -- it wouldn't make sense to add them. I'd liken it to someone thinking USM would grab the Jackson market when the vast majority of the folks in Jackson do not care about USM and wouldn't raise hell to "get the channel".

While it's certainly no "clean sweep" in Va or NC in that regard(or Texas for that matter) -- it's a much higher percentage of folks that would demand it -- and it stands a tremendous chance of actually getting pushed through.

I'd think we'd look at an Oklahoma school before going after Cinci... JMO...

[messageboardsuperhero]

UVA is arguably the best public school in the country in one of the best college towns there is. Our country was pretty literally founded there with many of the founding fathers being involved with UVA. While they are similar to OM in their elitist ways -- they actually are what they pretend to be for the most part -- making it so much less annoying to me. Their endowment is $5.2bil to $660mil for Va Tech. In terms of money, Va Tech is the 6th or 7th largest university in Virginia. UVA leads their rivalry in everything other than football and wrestling. Football rivalry was 39-36-5 in favor of Va Tech when Beamer established total dominance in the Commonwealth Cup in 99.

My problem with Va Tech is that I don't know that the snapshot we've got of them over most of our football watching lifetimes "is what they really are". It certainly wasn't their reality pre-Beamer. Will it be post-Beamer? That could go either way. They made a tremendous hire that has stuck with them through a zillion other/better opportunities and have built a powerhouse that just may self-sustain or get better or may fall apart without them. Who knows? That's not only true for the HC position, but also his defensive coordinator, who has been one of the best in college football for 2+ decades. Even with all of his success and UVA's floundering, Va Tech's Lane Stadium only seats about 4k more than Scott Stadium at UVA right now. I was surprised by that...

I just see UVA as the safer overall bet. I might feel differently a few years post-Beamer if Va Tech holds it's course. The right person is going to eventually go to UVA and wreck shit in the same way O'Conner has in baseball though IMO and basically become Stanford of the east coast. Could be wrong -- but I certainly see the potential there.

These(Va Tech) guys are damn sure a perfect cultural fit for the SEC. No denying that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blzftASduNc

Fair enough. It's really amazing what Beamer has done there. There really is no doubt that VA Tech is a better cultural fit here- but for better or worse, that's just not what matters these days... The good part about theoretically adding two ACC/east coast schools is that it would allow Mizzou to move over to the west- thus geographically balancing out the divisions.

Also, I agree about the UVA/UM elitist comparison. At least UVA fans have some legitimate reasons to act the way they do.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Would Cincinnati be an awful choice? If it's about TV sets, wouldn't Ohio make sense?

Cincy? That would be awful, IMO.

[1bigdawg]

I see UNC and Oklahoma as the best bets. For the above posters, Cincinnati does not bring OHIO and that play would not work like A&M over Texas. Ohio State is Ohio football. UVa is the only choice in Virginia for the long haul, but I see them slow playing us. However, if we get UNC, which I think will happen for reasons identified below, we will play UVa off against Oklahoma and Oklahoma will jump. The A&M example will prevent any loyalty to Texas.

UNC will be able to join after a couple of years of the SEC network without financial repercussions. Maryland just paid a $21(?) million penalty to leave the ACC, which set a precedent. Once the SEC network has operated a couple of years, UNC will net more than that off the difference in the ACC payout and the SEC payout, making the transition easy. Further that will add "premium" households to the network which means they will pay for their own additional payment. That means the existing SEC teams will not suffer financially from adding them. As an aside, because of the structure of the payments to the SEC network, no one in the existing footprint will be added. So FSU and Clemson are permanently out.

After UNC agrees, which they will for fear of NC State joining, then the SEC is in the drivers seat between UVa and Ok. Ok will jump first and is culturally a good choice. For all of Stoops' complaints about the SEC, it is really just envy.

[SDDawg]

If the SEC expands in VA and NC, I'd like to see us go after VA Tech and NC State. Duke and UNC will never split up- and personally, I really don't want to see UVA in the SEC. NC State and VA Tech just seem to fit in better with the SEC than those other schools, IMO.

Agreed, and then you realign and move Mizzou into the West and have those two new schools in the East. This seems like a plausible scenario.

[War Machine Dawg]

I see UNC and Oklahoma as the best bets. For the above posters, Cincinnati does not bring OHIO and that play would not work like A&M over Texas. Ohio State is Ohio football. UVa is the only choice in Virginia for the long haul, but I see them slow playing us. However, if we get UNC, which I think will happen for reasons identified below, we will play UVa off against Oklahoma and Oklahoma will jump. The A&M example will prevent any loyalty to Texas.

UNC will be able to join after a couple of years of the SEC network without financial repercussions. Maryland just paid a $21(?) million penalty to leave the ACC, which set a precedent. Once the SEC network has operated a couple of years, UNC will net more than that off the difference in the ACC payout and the SEC payout, making the transition easy. Further that will add "premium" households to the network which means they will pay for their own additional payment. That means the existing SEC teams will not suffer financially from adding them. As an aside, because of the structure of the payments to the SEC network, no one in the existing footprint will be added. So FSU and Clemson are permanently out.

After UNC agrees, which they will for fear of NC State joining, then the SEC is in the drivers seat between UVa and Ok. Ok will jump first and is culturally a good choice. For all of Stoops' complaints about the SEC, it is really just envy.

You really don't understand what's driving this expansion, do you? It's TV markets. Did you even bother looking at the map engie provided? Oklahoma is not in the top 15 CFB TV markets. They add literally nothing to the conference from a financial standpoint. Meanwhile, you've got the #11 CFB TV market in VA. Putting one of the VA schools into the SEC adds millions, maybe billions to the SEC bottom line. Say whatever you want about cultural fit, OK's prestige, or whatever other crazy excuse I'm sure you'll use to justify inviting OK. It isn't about that. We're adding NC & VA/VA Tech. It's just a matter of when at this point.

[Bothrops]

UNC doesn't care enough about football. I like NC State better for several reasons. More passionate about football.

[Dawg61]

I bet Ohio State would strongly consider flipping to the SEC if asked. They are so bloodthirsty for a NC in football and have got to think the B1G holds them back at this point that they just might do the unthinkable and try to play in the SEC. Ohio State and UNC in the SEC would be ridiculous. Would the SEC ask Ohio State though? Ohio State would shit themselves to be SEC football.

[War Machine Dawg]

UNC doesn't care enough about football. I like NC State better for several reasons. More passionate about football.

Crazy talk. UNC is investing in football. They went out and hired Butch Davis, then followed up him with Fedora. Once aGAIN, we're talking about massive amounts of money and power. They've seen what's happened in the dynamic between aTm and UTX. There is NO WAY UNC is going to make the same mistake UTX did by letting "little brother" jump ship to the SEC and immediately leapfrog them. It isn't happening. If that means making a massive increase in supporting football, they'll do it. And a lot of that applies with UVA/VT, too.

Another point worth mentioning is the SEC could use the boost academically that UNC and UVA would give. And as engie pointed out, with a bit of smart management and SEC money behind them, UVA could blow up in a hurry. Potential sleeping giant.

That said, why in the hell are we so obsessed with adding even more power football programs to the SEC? SOMEONE has to lose. Loading up this murderer's row of a league is going to be absolute gel. You gotta have a couple of cupcake conference wins in each division. I mean, let's go ahead and say UNC & UVA have been added to the SEC. Assuming the SEC Office does the logical thing, Mizzou moves back to the SEC West where it belongs. In that scenario, who are you passing to move up? Probably not Bama, LSU, Auburn, or aTm. Mizzou could potentially join that group. If you're in the East, it's still FL, GA, SCar. You gotta figure at some point TN turns it back around. And I figure UNC could immediately compete with that group. At least on that side you have VA, UK, and Vandy for relatively easy wins.

Also, once we go to 16, you can pretty much be assured we'll go to a 9 game conference slate, unless we ditch permanent division opponents and rotate through every 2 years. In other words, as MSU we'd play: Bama, Auburn, LSU, aTm, Mizzou, UPig, TSUN, and 1 East opponent. Home & Home with East, then get a new East Home & home. But my money is on 9 games. And there would still be a good chance of no permanents, just 2 rotating opponents. For us, our margin of error is even smaller under this scenario. Play 2 cupcake non-cons, 1 Power 5 non-con. Only 2 guaranteed wins of those 3. For the benefit of the doubt, I'll trust our AD schedules that Power 5 game smartly and we play someone like Iowa State consistently that we *should* beat. I'll also assume we keep UK as a permanent. That's 4 wins. Of the 8 remaining SEC games, which 2 of Bama, Auburn, LSU, aTm, Mizzou, Ark, TSUN, and random East team are you confident we can consistently beat? And whether they'll admit it or not, TSUN is asking the same questions in this scenario. As brutal as the league already is, expansion is going to make it that much more brutal.

[Dawg61]

UNC and UVA are historically losing football programs. They've had money forever. They've sucked at football forever too. Moving to the SEC will help them but it won't wake any sleeping giants.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

I see what you are saying engie but who cares about endowments. Vandys was tops before A&M joined. Do you think Slive would take vandy over Tenn?

Im ok with UNC. I would prefer nc state there but no way I want the Hoos over Va Tech. I dont give a rip what their endowment is or academic standard.

We are talking about TV and money. Va Tech fits. Not a single person outside of Va or Ms is watching us play uva. VT on the other hand....

That said, Charlottesville is a great town. They just dont fit. Just like mizzou. I get why we added mizzou. There was nobody else. VT is a second option for the state of Va and one I hope we go at.

If youve never been to a game at Lane stadium, it is everything sec football is and more.

[Apoplectic]

All of you are missing a key piece to the puzzle! AAU membership - wikipedia is your friend - use it.

[dickiedawg]

Really good points here. Makes it look like a no-brainer.

[Quaoarsking]

I agree that UNC and a Virginia school are coming soon, but consider this:

There has been a lot of buzz about the government breaking up the current cable business model where all the channels are bundled together. At some point we'll probably be able to pick and choose what channels we want and pay individually. Once ala carte cable arrives, market size isn't really important, it will be what school has the most total fans who will buy the SEC Network, regardless of geography. And if that day does come, Florida State will shoot to the top of the SEC's wishlist.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

I agree that UNC and a Virginia school are coming soon, but consider this:

There has been a lot of buzz about the government breaking up the current cable business model where all the channels are bundled together. At some point we'll probably be able to pick and choose what channels we want and pay individually. Once ala carte cable arrives, market size isn't really important, it will be what school has the most total fans who will buy the SEC Network, regardless of geography. And if that day does come, Florida State will shoot to the top of the SEC's wishlist.

Exactly.
That day is coming fast. The current model is so out of date it is actually shocking that it is still that way. Just think about it...

[1bigdawg]

You really don't understand what's driving this expansion, do you? It's TV markets. Did you even bother looking at the map engie provided? Oklahoma is not in the top 15 CFB TV markets. They add literally nothing to the conference from a financial standpoint. Meanwhile, you've got the #11 CFB TV market in VA. Putting one of the VA schools into the SEC adds millions, maybe billions to the SEC bottom line. Say whatever you want about cultural fit, OK's prestige, or whatever other crazy excuse I'm sure you'll use to justify inviting OK. It isn't about that. We're adding NC & VA/VA Tech. It's just a matter of when at this point.

Actually, I do understand TV markets and have looked at the map engie provided which was for the ESPN viewership for last weekend. Note that UVa was giving UCLA a great game on ESPN during that weekend driving up viewership in that market for that one weekend.

In addition to looking at the pretty map I also read the list engie provided which listed the top markets for the last two full seasons. On the list Oklahoma City is the number 12 market and Tulsa is number 14 in 2013 and number 8 and 12 in 2014. The highest rated Virginia market in 2013 is Norfolk at number 18. In 2012 it was Richmond at number 15.

Oklahoma fans are more passionate about sports than UVa fans, possibly because of at least 7 decades of continued success. Even though Virginia has more total eyeballs, the network would get more viewership from OK.

I would be thrilled to have UVa in the conference, but I don't think they will want us. My first point was that I am good with us getting Oklahoma instead, not that I did not want UVa.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

The problem is I dont believe OU will come to the sec by themselves. They should but probably wont.

[AROB44]

Please enlighten me as to why any of this expansion talk is a positive for us. I just don't see it. Texas A&M being added sure doesn't help us when it comes to winning. And winning trumps $$$ every time.

[engie]

UNC and UVA are historically losing football programs. They've had money forever. They've sucked at football forever too. Moving to the SEC will help them but it won't wake any sleeping giants.

Interesting. NCState has no more football history than UNC does.
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/12222/m_20140905-yjf6-97kb.jpg (http://my.jetscreenshot.com/12222/20140905-yjf6-97kb)

I give you VaTech over UVA, in a difference that was much less pronounced pre-Beamer but is pretty big now.

I guess another good example for what I'm trying to say about Va Tech is OM under Vaught. Did he turn OM into "what it was while he was there" -- or did they "regress to what they really were" after him? They are 247-239-4 since Vaught. They were 199-197-19 before Vaught. They are pretty clearly a .500 program that had one tremendous coach whose career spanned 20% of their history. Vaught went 190-61-12 up there. They were the THIRD winningest program in the country over his entire tenure...

[engie]

The problem is I dont believe OU will come to the sec by themselves. They should but probably wont.

It's going to depend on money and landscape of everything 10 years from now when the GOR's run out as to which conference gets raided. OU isn't going to "Texas" themselves when the time comes -- and they aren't going to take less money to call themselves conference mates with Ok State IMO. So, the same threat applies to them that applies to the others -- assuming we maintain a fiscal and football superiority to the Pac12. And even if we don't -- the Pac12 isn't taking 2 Oklahoma schools together either. Doesn't make sense in the current TV model. So they end up separated either way if the Big12 is the conference that goes down IMO...

[engie]

Please enlighten me as to why any of this expansion talk is a positive for us. I just don't see it. Texas A&M being added sure doesn't help us when it comes to winning. And winning trumps $$$ every time.

We should probably go C-USA so we can dominate huh?

[IMissJack]

I know it's about money, but a team like Louisville or Cincy have a better chance at getting to the 4 team playoff not being in the SEC, because they have a better chance of running the table.

[Chinchilla]

You really don't understand what's driving this expansion, do you? It's TV markets. Did you even bother looking at the map engie provided? Oklahoma is not in the top 15 CFB TV markets. They add literally nothing to the conference from a financial standpoint. Meanwhile, you've got the #11 CFB TV market in VA. Putting one of the VA schools into the SEC adds millions, maybe billions to the SEC bottom line. Say whatever you want about cultural fit, OK's prestige, or whatever other crazy excuse I'm sure you'll use to justify inviting OK. It isn't about that. We're adding NC & VA/VA Tech. It's just a matter of when at this point.

That map, I don't think it means what you think it means.

[Liverpooldawg]

This discussion is interesting. I'm going to throw this in about Oklahoma. I think I remember seeing during the last round of expansion that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are and always will be a package deal. That is because of politics within the state of Oklahoma. I think that is why the SEC didn't take Oklahoma the last time from what I heard.

I think the SEC needs the VA and NC markets. I would take one from each state I really wouldn't care which one. The SEC will grow the market for any of them when it comes to actual eyeballs watching TV for football. Make no mistake, no matter how good or bad their basketball teams and academics are, football is what drives this stuff. We will probably only take two and I think one each from VA and NC trumps two from OK.

[Liverpooldawg]

Another note: I really wish we could have picked off Maryland the last time. Getting into the DC metro market would be really big. That's why we need UVA or Va Tech.

[Political Hack]

do they go after the states or the cities? Based on the Mizzu acquisition I'd say they may be focused more on cities. If so, Clemson, Central Florida, Tulane, Louisville, the Carina schools, South Florida, and others could be in play.

The beauty of this is that the SEC doesn't need a "tradition rich" school. Any school will blow up in the SEC within a few years. If they can resolve political issues (Florida allowing CFU or SFl & LSU not balking at Tulane), it's possible IMO.

Think of it this way... Mizzu & A&M > Texas, Oklahoma, FSU, Miami, etc... They didn't go after the power houses, they're going after markets (as the Engies posts suggest). I just wonder how much they'll factor in State vs City markets and whether a teams historical tradition will have much to anything to do with who they bring in.

[1bigdawg]

do they go after the states or the cities?

I believe they will go after eyeballs within media markets. The SEC Network makes more money from the "in region" markets than from the national market. So they want to expand the conference's region. Adding Clemson, for example, may increase viewership particularly in the Greenville market, but it does not increase the income of the network in a substantial way because the Greenville media market is already considered part of the SEC region where we get higher fees from the cable companies per subscriber. Adding a North Carolina school increases the region. Cable networks in the region would have to pay more per subscriber to carry the SEC Network.

[engie]

This discussion is interesting. I'm going to throw this in about Oklahoma. I think I remember seeing during the last round of expansion that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are and always will be a package deal. That is because of politics within the state of Oklahoma.

That's true. What it ultimately amounts to is them making sure Ok State doesn't get left out to pasture. Same reason Baylor sued aTm last time -- to try to secure their own future in a big league.

OK State has to be pretty close to attractive enough to get into the PAC in their own right now, I would think. They'd certainly take them over getting 3 schools from Texas....

[Goat Holder]

UNC and UVA are historically losing football programs. They've had money forever. They've sucked at football forever too. Moving to the SEC will help them but it won't wake any sleeping giants.

^^^^ This

Same as Texas A&M. All the sleeping giant talk is nonsense. If aTm becomes a football power, it's due to Kevin Sumlin, not some magic in the water in College Station or the SEC.

[Goat Holder]

It won't happen, at least not in the immediate future.

Grant of Rights, 50 million dollar fees to leave the conference, etc. UNC/UVa are bedrock ACC, they aren't leaving. There is already talk of an ACC network, and ESPN does not want the ACC to fail. Then count the Notre Dame deal. I think the ACC is here to stay and they'll come up with some other means of solidarity, not just another makeshift SEC network with 'not-as-rowdy' fans. Not to mention this bubble is likely going to burst soon.

SEC needs to worry about making their brand better instead of TV market money grabs. If they want ACC teams and are willing to pay, add Clemson and Florida State. Quality skyrockets. SEC is stronger than ever, and more people watch. 10-15 years from now, start discussing another footprint money grab. That's how real growth works.

But bottom line, I personally think it's the Big 12 that will eventually fail. Not the ACC.

[messageboardsuperhero]

^^^^ This

Same as Texas A&M. All the sleeping giant talk is nonsense. If aTm becomes a football power, it's due to Kevin Sumlin, not some magic in the water in College Station or the SEC.

It was never about "magic water" with A&M. It was about a school/program who has always had a ton of money, unreal fan support, and was located in arguably the most talent-rich state in the Union. A&M's biggest problem was that they were always under UT's shadow- but that's not the case anymore.

Sure, Sumlin looks like the guy who's going to finally put it all together- but the sleeping giant talk was always about the potential that program has because of the sheer resources at its disposal.

ETA: And you know why A&M was a sleeping giant and UVA isn't? Because A&M has fans who love college football more than life itself- and are willing for fork over $450 million to make this a reality.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/1d3826d15bb81281627fb919e13a87ed/tumblr_mm5428YC0W1rge74zo1_1280.jpg

[1bigdawg]

double post

[Goat Holder]

It was never about "magic water" with A&M. It was about a school/program who has always had a ton of money, unreal fan support, and was located in arguably the most talent-rich state in the Union. A&M's biggest problem was that they were always under UT's shadow- but that's not the case anymore.

Sure, Sumlin looks like the guy who's going to finally put it all together- but the sleeping giant talk was always about the potential that program has because of the sheer resources at its disposal.

ETA: And you know why A&M was a sleeping giant and UVA isn't? Because A&M has fans who love college football more than life itself- and are willing for fork over $450 million to make this a reality.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/1d3826d15bb81281627fb919e13a87ed/tumblr_mm5428YC0W1rge74zo1_1280.jpg

Disagree. Especially with the bolded part. I think that's overrated. Yes, it matters, but when you get 11 guys on the field politics goes out the window. And not to mention that any political advantage Texas had before, they still have it. SEC affiliation doesn't help that.

[Liverpooldawg]

I believe they will go after eyeballs within media markets. The SEC Network makes more money from the "in region" markets than from the national market. So they want to expand the conference's region. Adding Clemson, for example, may increase viewership particularly in the Greenville market, but it does not increase the income of the network in a substantial way because the Greenville media market is already considered part of the SEC region where we get higher fees from the cable companies per subscriber. Adding a North Carolina school increases the region. Cable networks in the region would have to pay more per subscriber to carry the SEC Network.

THIS. Increasing the regional footprint will be what drives any expansion from now on. Adding a state will be what it's about. That is what makes the Virginia schools so attractive. That would not only get you into the state of Virginia but also the rest of the DC Metro. Why do you think the BIG took Maryland? I could definitely see the SEC taking ONE (not both) of the Oklahoma schools for the same reason. I don't think you will see any school added from the current footprint.

[BulldogBear]

Lots of good discussion on here so not going to quote anyone in particular as I chime. Conference expansion is a hobby of mine and I have sheets upon sheets, all hand written, of trickle down possibilities for almost every scenario. I have a co-worker that calls this collection of paper the "scrawlings of madman."

First, the state of Oklahoma: I have a good bit of friends, family, and connections in the state and can tell you that while the relationship is not on the level of TAMU-TX as far a political clout, it not USM vs. State or Ole Miss. One abandoning the other would somewhat akin to political suicide, though damage to OU as the flagship wouldn't be as dramatic as it would be for OSU to pull the same stunt, it's scary enough to make this an impossibility for the near future at least. There is also almost no interest in separating from UT on the part of the OU nation. I cannot stress enough that until OU sees no particular benefit of being in a conference with the University of Texas, there almost 0% chance they will bolt alone for any conference. Separating from OSU will cost them a myriad of financial and political concessions as well as probably having to guarantee a 30-50 year home and home contract with OSU containing a buyout clause of 10-15 billion dollars. This will also likely ex-out the only thing that might get them to leave UT behind, a continuation of the red river rivalry. Couple that with the fact that the natural conference schedule of a 16 school conference, whether 2 divisions of 8 or 4 divisions of 4, is 9. That leaves OU having to play 11 Power 5 games per year with room for only 1 cupcake and possibly some seasons with just 5 on campus games. I just can't see this happening outside of 20-24 school super conferences. 16 isn't enough. There's no room anywhere but the Pac12(16). So, if OU is the 16th school in the SEC, it will be b/c OSU was the 15th. Ain't happening unless a major change comes in college football. Perhaps if open dates are eliminated to allow a 13th game, then this again opens up discussion. But for now, it's all but impossible so let's move on to who 15 and 16 will really be: a school from NC and a school from VA.

East Coast scenarios:

(1) If NCSU becomes number 15, we'll end up with VPI as 16. NCSU is desirable. Please understand I am not against them. They are more SEC in nature yet also no slouch on academics. There will be pressure to play UNC every year in football, whereas UNC will have much more pressure of who to play OOC. NCSU can live with a UF/FSU, UGA/GT, SC/CLEMSON type of arrangement. UNC will have more difficulty without the right partner. IF NCSU comes first, we'll have no use for UNC. In all likelihood they will stay paired with UVA and fill out the Big Ten. The same arrangement may occur with them coming to the SEC but that will be explained below. So, VPI becomes a natural and acceptable default for no. 16 even though UVA would be preferable. Only 20 years ago, VPI was just another ECU or USM. The formation of the Big East as football conference really is what elevated them from "Metro" status. As an independent they were headed nowhere different than ECU, USM, Louisville (at the time), Cinnci, etc. The risk of digression has sufficiently passed I believe.

(2) IF either UNC or UVA jumps ship for the SEC (or Big Ten for same reasons), the other will follow, or at least try/want to. The road to staying together is easier than it is for OU/OSU. UVA, UNC, OU are all flagships but carry weight political weight versus the other schools in their respective states 1, 2, 3 in that order. IOW, UVA is more able than UNC to whatever they dang well please, and UNC more so than OU. Obviously you want to follow the money, but you also need to maximize it. I'm just going to throw out meaningless figures here: If I have a $100 and give away $40, I have $60 left. If I have $125 but have to give away $75 to obtain it, I have $50 left. $125 is not, in the case, more money than $100. Staying together will help UVA and UNC if for no other reason than they occupy 2 different TV markets whereas OSU/OU don't. They will want this to happen due to similar but not as costly political and financial issue as would OU if they do not. But, UVA and UNC can mange their athletic affairs much easier by insisting on being a package deal. In no particular order, first, baseball is quickly becoming a 3rd potential revenue sport. Twenty years from now there will be a big 3, not just 2, although I will concede that I think baseball will always be third just as pigskin is first. But, it will no longer be just another olympic sport. UVA is relevant in baseball. UNC is relevant in baseball. SEC is relevant in baseball. Big Ten is not relevant in baseball. Basketball OOC rivalries are a bazillion times easier to maintain than football ones. UNC can separate from Duke because that rivalry is really driven by basketball and they can still easily play H/H every year should they desire it. Would also make compelling early season matchups. They can also play NCSU and WF annually. They probably will even want to schedule a murderer's row OOC with the SEC roundball situation what it is to maintain SOC. So, let's move on to the problem both have with separating for football. IF they do, they will face tremendous political pressure to play NCSU and VPI respectively, which will put them in a similar situation with OU in that they'll have to either sacrifice their rivalry or sacrifice politically and financially to give the finger to NCSU and VPI because nobody wants to play 11 dadgum Power 5 games and have too many seasons without 7 home games. To the people involved, the UVA-UNC rivalry (as far as out of state rivals goes) is every bit as big as OU/TX, OhioSt/Michigan, or UMiss/LSU (not really, just had to slip that in for rebel trolls/lurkers). While, not mattering near as much nationally, it's a big deal to tarheels and wahoos and unlike Buckeyes/Wolverines bleeds over in to all sports. I'm tired of typing... It's so much easier and desirable for them to stay together. I believe they will.

So, it will be UVA/UNC to the SEC or NCSU/VPI but only in those combos.

[Liverpooldawg]

Disagree. Especially with the bolded part. I think that's overrated. Yes, it matters, but when you get 11 guys on the field politics goes out the window. And not to mention that any political advantage Texas had before, they still have it. SEC affiliation doesn't help that.

I don't think the SEC makes A&M BETTER as a program than Texas. What it does is put them on an equal footing for really the first time ever.

[Political Hack]

I don't think the SEC makes A&M BETTER as a program than Texas. What it does is put them on an equal footing for really the first time ever.

I think this is a no-brainer. Texas has it's own network. A&M now at least has a conference network. Texas is killing the Big12. If I were commish, I'd kick their asses to the curb and reconstitute the conference but it's now too late for that. They chose Texas over A&M, over Nebraska, and others... and they're going to be pillaged like the little step sister they've become.

Texas has done everything collectively to make their single program the best, but the conference efforts to make the SEC the best are going to allow A&M to leave them in the dust. No one will be watching the longhorn network when they're playing east-west polytechnic institute with A&M on the other channel playing LSU.

[War Machine Dawg]

It was never about "magic water" with A&M. It was about a school/program who has always had a ton of money, unreal fan support, and was located in arguably the most talent-rich state in the Union. A&M's biggest problem was that they were always under UT's shadow- but that's not the case anymore.

Sure, Sumlin looks like the guy who's going to finally put it all together- but the sleeping giant talk was always about the potential that program has because of the sheer resources at its disposal.

ETA: And you know why A&M was a sleeping giant and UVA isn't? Because A&M has fans who love college football more than life itself- and are willing for fork over $450 million to make this a reality.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/1d3826d15bb81281627fb919e13a87ed/tumblr_mm5428YC0W1rge74zo1_1280.jpg

And fighting a Texas legislature who always made sure UT was the #1 program in that state.

[engie]

^^^^ This

Same as Texas A&M. All the sleeping giant talk is nonsense. If aTm becomes a football power, it's due to Kevin Sumlin, not some magic in the water in College Station or the SEC.

Goat pls

You've been full retard on aTm from the beginning. What we told you was going to happen is happening even quicker than predicted -- but instead of claiming oh it's impossible!!1!1 Now "it's got nothing to do with the school -- it's just the coach!!1!1"? Surely you don't think anyone is stupid enough to buy that bullshit backtrack job.

[engie]

Disagree. Especially with the bolded part. I think that's overrated. Yes, it matters, but when you get 11 guys on the field politics goes out the window. And not to mention that any political advantage Texas had before, they still have it. SEC affiliation doesn't help that.

You don't get it. Never have -- never will. That's why you were the only person that argued about aTm in the first place and are having to change your story and backtrack now.

[War Machine Dawg]

Goat pls

You've been full retard on aTm from the beginning. What we told you was going to happen is happening even quicker than predicted -- but instead of claiming oh it's impossible!!1!1 Now "it's got nothing to do with the school -- it's just the coach!!1!1"? Surely you don't think anyone is stupid enough to buy that bullshit backtrack job.


You don't get it. Never have -- never will. That's why you were the only person that argued about aTm in the first place and are having to change your story and backtrack now.

Goat gonna Goat. Bipolar gonna bipolar.

[Bothrops]

I will stick to my original comment that NC State is a better fit in the SEC than UNC, and, yes, they care more about football as a fanbase. Carter-Finley sells out every game and has for well over a decade. Keenan Stadium (UNC) is roughly the same capacity but almost never gets filled. They care about basketball and that's about it. I used to live in the RDU area and I know what I'm talking about. It's the same tv market and both schools would bring something different, but football interest/passion in Chapel Hill pale in comparison to that in Raleigh.

[Goat Holder]

Only 20 years ago, VPI was just another ECU or USM. The formation of the Big East as football conference really is what elevated them from "Metro" status. As an independent they were headed nowhere different than ECU, USM, Louisville (at the time), Cinnci, etc. The risk of digression has sufficiently passed I believe.

BulldogBear, you bring up excellent points, except for what I quoted. I think this is a flaw that many people make. Virginia Tech is a major state institution, with a lot of resources, fans and alumni. That alone elevates it above Metro-esque status. Yes, their football program wasn't up to par, but so what? You have to have muscle to survive. Muscle in my mind is what I listed above. A winning program helps to achieve that, most definitely. So it's somewhat of a cyclical argument.

I always point to Louisville. All things considered, they are just a commuter Metro-esque school. But over time, they won a little, built facilities, built a solid fanbase, and have some big donors. THAT is why they were attractive to the ACC. And that is also why ECU and USM are not, no matter how many games they win. They simply aren't as popular.

[Goat Holder]

And fighting a Texas legislature who always made sure UT was the #1 program in that state.

They are still fighting that now, just as we are, and others. It will vary from election to election, but being in the SEC has nothing to do with that.

[Goat Holder]

You don't get it. Never have -- never will.

I get it. I know your thought process. I just don't agree with it. The sign of a mature individual is being able to handle disagreements without it shattering your ego. You should try it.


That's why you were the only person that argued about aTm in the first place and are having to change your story and backtrack now.

Ha, never happened. I argued against Mizzou. I liked adding aTm because it satisfied quality concerns AND a new TV market. Win, win. You're simply making that up.

My stance on aTm is that the SEC isn't going to lift them to any kind of crazy status that they couldn't have achieved before. If they could have done it, they already would have. Kevin Sumlin is the reason behind their current success, not the SEC cocaine.

And it does appear I might have been wrong on Mizzou, they have certainly added some quality along with their market. I still don't think they fit in with the SEC though.

[Goat Holder]

-- it's just the coach!!1!1"?

That's exactly what it is.

[Dawg61]

I don't want NC State over UNC but cool graph