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starkvegasdawg
08-30-2014, 06:29 AM
Ok Ref. Are you agreeing with the NWS including us in the heavy rain and possible severe weather threat? Yesterday they were saying that should stay confined west of I-55.
ShotgunDawg
08-30-2014, 08:45 AM
Again, by no mean am I a weather expert, but, when looking at the radar this morning, it looks like the rain is west of us and moving North/northeast. Any chance the worse part of the band stays west of us and maybe we only get a few showers?
TheRef
08-30-2014, 08:47 AM
Ok Ref. Are you agreeing with the NWS including us in the heavy rain and possible severe weather threat? Yesterday they were saying that should stay confined west of I-55.

Eh....kinda. Latest model runs are indicating that we could have some severe storms mosey their way over to our area, but I'm not going to go as far as putting us under the gun, so to speak, for severe weather. It's definitely something to look at before the game.
TheRef
08-30-2014, 08:49 AM
Again, by no mean am I a weather expert, but, when looking at the radar this morning, it looks like the rain is west of us and moving North/northeast. Any chance the worse part of the band stays west of us and maybe we only get a few showers?

It's a very real possibility. Models are trending towards it staying to the West, with one (HRRR) moving it to the east and having us receive a good bit. NAM is running the 12Z run right now, so I'll see what it has to say about the situation.
Interpolation_Dawg_EX
08-30-2014, 08:49 AM
Again, by no mean am I a weather expert, but, when looking at the radar this morning, it looks like the rain is west of us and moving North/northeast. Any chance the worse part of the band stays west of us and maybe we only get a few showers?
Beat me to it...I see a big cell down around Natchez and was wondering if that is what will be in Starkville later? It looks like it's a slow mover and expanding as it progresses.
RougeDawg
08-30-2014, 10:12 AM
Yes, It looks like we may be in the clear.
FlabLoser
08-30-2014, 10:17 AM
http://www.quickmeme.com/img/92/92c865cb41ad8676ddaf1f8acc397ebc07fcb2296993f8f0a2 9494621096def1.jpg
TheRef
08-30-2014, 10:31 AM
FWIW, all of the models are indicating that the rain will expand to the East in a few hours as the sun creates a very favorable convective environment for storm development. Sun =/= All clear for storms.
GreenheadDawg
08-30-2014, 10:33 AM
FWIW, all of the models are indicating that the rain will expand to the East in a few hours as the sun creates a very favorable convective environment for storm development. Sun =/= All clear for storms.

Wait. I'm slow. So you're telling me there's a chance?
TheRef
08-30-2014, 10:34 AM
Wait. I'm slow. So you're telling me there's a chance?

Yes. There's a chance. I'll keep watching it, though.
ShotgunDawg
08-30-2014, 10:36 AM
FWIW, all of the models are indicating that the rain will expand to the East in a few hours as the sun creates a very favorable convective environment for storm development. Sun =/= All clear for storms.

Ref, now you know how a coach feels. You are the expert that has spent years studying this stuff, only to be questioned by amateurs who disagree with you off of what they see on the radar.

Never forget this feeling my friend. This is how our coaches see us fans.
TheRef
08-30-2014, 10:39 AM
Ref, now you know how a coach feels. You are the expert that has spent years studying this stuff, only to be questioned by amateurs who disagree with you off of what they see on the radar.

Never forget this feeling my friend. This is how our coaches see us fans.

Haha. I'm used to the feeling because we should ALWAYS be correct according to the public. But I'm perfectly okay with that fact. I'm used to being questioned about my forecast and being ridiculed when I get it wrong. Not by this board, but by friends. But it's all done in jest and we all laugh about it later. I'll be posting my final forecast on M&WN on the Open Thread we will have going.
starkvegasdawg
08-30-2014, 11:05 AM
Storms starting to fire from Jackson east to meridian.
TheRef
08-30-2014, 11:07 AM
Storms starting to fire from Jackson east to meridian.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_peegzjCN4I/U29YTjRKHkI/AAAAAAAAQdw/gGcDVGkb52k/s1600/it-begins.gif
MaxedOutMaroon
08-30-2014, 11:43 AM
I know there will be a more thorough update comin soon, but is it more likely for it to be rain but not storms or rains accompanies with lightening and such?
TheRef
08-30-2014, 11:45 AM
I know there will be a more thorough update comin soon, but is it more likely for it to be rain but not storms or rains accompanies with lightening and such?

I think we may have some storms with lightning. But mostly rain without lightning. I wouldn't put the possibility out completely. Also...

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bq7bmXZCYAEfUPS.jpg
TheRef
08-30-2014, 11:48 AM
Final Forecast and all other M&WN links and info.

http://maroonandwhitenation.com/2014/08/30/mississippi-state-vs-southern-miss-open-game-thread/
MaxedOutMaroon
08-30-2014, 11:53 AM
I'll be sure not to get that wrong next time all knowing Ref. On the real though, I appreciate what you do, even though you tweeted that. ;)
TheRef
08-30-2014, 11:57 AM
I'll be sure not to get that wrong next time all knowing Ref. On the real though, I appreciate what you do, even though you tweeted that. ;)

It's a common mistake made by many people. It has to be sent out quite often. You're not the first person on the board to use that spelling, either. :P
starkvegasdawg
08-30-2014, 12:00 PM
Ref, to me looks like best chance of lightning is going to be these discrete storms ahead of main rain shield. Guessing if we get any strong/severe storms it'll be out of these firing up now.
TheRef
08-30-2014, 12:02 PM
Ref, to me looks like best chance of lightning is going to be these discrete storms ahead of main rain shield. Guessing if we get any strong/severe storms it'll be out of these firing up now.

Mesoscale Discussion has been released by SPC. 20% chance of a watch being issued.