Hey Ref....Weather update?

[rabbitthedawg]

Weather Nation is saying we may have rain...what say you?

[TheRef]

Weather Nation is saying we may have rain...what say you?

Working on looking at the models now, rabbit.

[TheRef]

So here's the deal. The NAM doesn't exactly reach to kickoff right now, but it's looking pretty dry according to the 6Z run of the NAM. But then again, I'd wait another day before we start looking at/trusting the NAM. The GFS, on the other hand, is pretty aggressive with the rain. Usually the GFS runs fast and dry. Looking at model soundings on BUFKIT, the GFS is forecasting a "Mean Ohio Sounding". What this sounding usually does is produce heavy rain/flash flooding. Which is NOT what you want to have happen for the opening game of the season. This is all associated with a trough that is moving through the Pacific Northwest right now. So I'd put rain chances, right now, at about 60-70% depending on the next few model runs.

[starkvegasdawg]

So here's the deal. The NAM doesn't exactly reach to kickoff right now, but it's looking pretty dry according to the 6Z run of the NAM. But then again, I'd wait another day before we start looking at/trusting the NAM. The GFS, on the other hand, is pretty aggressive with the rain. Usually the GFS runs fast and dry. Looking at model soundings on BUFKIT, the GFS is forecasting a "Mean Ohio Sounding". What this sounding usually does is produce heavy rain/flash flooding. Which is NOT what you want to have happen for the opening game of the season. This is all associated with a trough that is moving through the Pacific Northwest right now. So I'd put rain chances, right now, at about 60-70% depending on the next few model runs.

When will you be able to start trying to time it out as far as when it gets here or leaves is concerned? I'm guessing that will be closer to a 12-24 hour before window kind of thing.

[TheRef]

When will you be able to start trying to time it out as far as when it gets here or leaves is concerned? I'm guessing that will be closer to a 12-24 hour before window kind of thing.

As in specific hour? I'll do my best attempt of it tomorrow for my official forecast. Then I'll update it daily up to kickoff.

[starkvegasdawg]

As in specific hour? I'll do my best attempt of it tomorrow for my official forecast. Then I'll update it daily up to kickoff.

Yes. I know the NWS will say something like a 70% chance of rain mainly after 2:00PM or something like that. Just wondering if it is supposed to be raining during the game. Not that I'll get to be there but just didn't want a sloppy field. I always think that favors the underdog.

[Jack Lambert]

As in specific hour? I'll do my best attempt of it tomorrow for my official forecast. Then I'll update it daily up to kickoff.

You guys need to get that top secret machine that NASA has to keep Hurricanes away installed up there.

[TheRef]

Yes. I know the NWS will say something like a 70% chance of rain mainly after 2:00PM or something like that. Just wondering if it is supposed to be raining during the game. Not that I'll get to be there but just didn't want a sloppy field. I always think that favors the underdog.

Well considering that USM is more of a pass-first offense, it might actually benefit MSU being a run-heavy offense. I don't have enough model data right now to do times.

[Dawgsrule]

I'm coming from Atlanta and it'll be my birthday Saturday so if this skulldragging is rained out I'm gunna be pissed af.

[TheRef]

I'm coming from Atlanta and it'll be my birthday Saturday so if this skulldragging is rained out I'm gunna be pissed af.

I'd hate for it to happen too. I can't control the weather, however, so I'll just try to provide y'all with an idea of what the weather will be around gametime.

[rabbitthedawg]

As long as there is no lightening we should be fine.

[TheRef]

As long as there is no lightening we should be fine.

Pet peeve for every Meteorologist.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bq7bmXZCYAEfUPS.jpg

[FlabLoser]

Ref, are we talking a front thing that moves through and is gone, or are we talking some monsoon thing that is going to park and rain all day?

[TheRef]

Ref, are we talking a front thing that moves through and is gone, or are we talking some monsoon thing that is going to park and rain all day?

It might be an extended line of storms that we will have to wallow through. It'll last a few hours.

[Dawg Tired]

Well considering that USM is more of a pass-first offense, it might actually benefit MSU being a run-heavy offense. I don't have enough model data right now to do times.

Here's the way I see it Ref:


Dry and clear .......... Advantage: MSU
Sloppy field and no rain ......... Advantage: MSU
Dry field and rain ........... Advantage: MSU
Sloppy field and rain .......... Advantage: MSU
Windy and clear ......... Advantage: MSU
Windy and rain .......... Advantage: MSU
Windy and sloppy field .......... Advantage: MSU
Snow ........... Advantage: MSU
Ice .......... Advantage: MSU
Sleet ........... Advantage: MSU

[Lloyd Christmas]

It might be an extended line of storms that we will have to wallow through. It'll last a few hours.

On weather undergorund it looks like it's mostly drizzle predicted as far as precipitation. Out of curiosity, why are meteorologists so sure there will be rain 3 days out? Shit going on in the gulf?

[TheRef]

On weather undergorund it looks like it's mostly drizzle predicted as far as precipitation. Out of curiosity, why are meteorologists so sure there will be rain 3 days out? Shit going on in the gulf?

Big ol trough is pushing its way through from the Pacific Northwest and will have enough relative velocity to support it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's what the homies at the NWS have to say on the matter:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES

Translation...sounds like you may want to bring the raincoat or poncho if your're heading to DWS Saturday. Would be great if it would hold off until after the game.

[FlabLoser]

Wonder if they'll take precautions with the grass parking lots. It will quickly turn into Monster Jam 2014 after it rains for hours.

[starkvegasdawg]

Wonder if they'll take precautions with the grass parking lots. It will quickly turn into Monster Jam 2014 after it rains for hours.

Maybe they should move the game to this SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAY!

[TheRef]

Wonder if they'll take precautions with the grass parking lots. It will quickly turn into Monster Jam 2014 after it rains for hours.

Depends on the forecasted amount of precip on Friday. That's when they'll make a determination on grass lots. With the ground being so dry lately, the ground can take more water than usual. So it will be interesting to see and I'll try to predict that University's response.

[Lloyd Christmas]

Here's what the homies at the NWS have to say on the matter:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES

Translation...sounds like you may want to bring the raincoat or poncho if your're heading to DWS Saturday. Would be great if it would hold off until after the game.

Damn it damn it damn it

[FlabLoser]

All this great weather we've had to get the stadium work done and its gonna rain buckets on opening day. Ain't that some chit.

[sportzfan]

Wonder if they'll take precautions with the grass parking lots. It will quickly turn into Monster Jam 2014 after it rains for hours.

i emailed Scott during the online chat on tuesday about the grass parking lots. He said that as of now there were no plans to close them because things are dry now.

[TheRef]

i emailed Scott during the online chat on tuesday about the grass parking lots. He said that as of now there were no plans to close them because things are dry now.

He also said that it was dependent on how heavy the rain is and the amount of rain we get...

[archdog]

Pet peeve for every Meteorologist.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bq7bmXZCYAEfUPS.jpg

That is awesome you have a pic of that.