Gonna do a season projection--need your input

[Tdawg]

I'm gonna put together a little projection for the board (much different than a prediction), but I need some data to do it. We are not going to pick winners, scores or anything like that. What I need is for you to tell me the percent chance that MSU has of winning each game this season. You can not use 0%, 100% or 50%, but anything else is game. Let's keep the discussion to a minimum on this as there will be plenty of time to discuss the results. I think y'all will like this.

Southern Miss
UAB
@ S. Alabama
@ LSU
Texas A&M
Auburn
@ Kentucky
Arkansas
UT Martin
@ Alabama
Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss

[sleepy dawg]

I'll take a stab at it.

88 Southern Miss
90 UAB
80 @ S. Alabama
30 @ LSU
45 Texas A&M
40 Auburn
80 @ Kentucky
80 Arkansas
98 UT Martin
20 @ Alabama
69 Vanderbilt
52 @ Ole Miss

[Political Hack]

Southern Miss - 96%
UAB - 93%
@ S. Alabama - 98%
@ LSU - 36%
Texas A&M - 59%
Auburn - 51%
@ Kentucky - 76%
Arkansas - 73%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 13%
Vanderbilt - 83%
@ Ole Miss - 51%

[Tdawg]

I'll start it off:

Southern Miss 95%
UAB 95%
@ S. Alabama 88%
@ LSU 35%
Texas A&M 60%
Auburn 45%
@ Kentucky 65%
Arkansas 70%
UT Martin 99%
@ Alabama 15%
Vanderbilt 65%
@ Ole Miss 51%

[Coach34]

Nasty Bunch- 98%
UAB- 98%
@ S. Alabama- 88%
@ LSU- 34%
Texas A&M- 67%
Auburn- 50%
@ Kentucky- 67%
Arkansas- 67%
UT Martin- 98%
@ Alabama- 10%
Vanderbilt- 75%
@ Ole Miss- 40%

[DawgInMemphis]

Southern Miss 95%
UAB 93%
@ S. Alabama 91%
@ LSU 30%
Texas A&M 60%
Auburn 55%
@ Kentucky 80%
Arkansas 85%
UT Martin 99%
@ Alabama 15%
Vanderbilt 90%
@ Ole Miss 55%

[MetEdDawg]

Southern Miss - 98%
UAB- 99%
@ S. Alabama- 90%
@ LSU - 30%
Texas A&M - 75%
Auburn - 45%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 85%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 5%
Vanderbilt - 70%
@ Ole Miss - 51%

[starkvegasdawg]

Southern Miss - 97%
UAB - 95%
@ S. Alabama - 95%
@ LSU - 54%
Texas A&M - 77%
Auburn - 72%
@ Kentucky - 76%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 14%
Vanderbilt - 82%
@ Ole Miss - 70%

[grinnindawg]

95 Southern Miss
90 UAB
80 @ S. Alabama
20 @ LSU
60 Texas A&M
51 Auburn
65 @ Kentucky
70 Arkansas
98 UT Martin
10 @ Alabama
80 Vanderbilt
51 @ Ole Miss

[Political Hack]

USA doesn't have a defensive tackle on their roster ready for what's coming at them. We could run an under center QB sneak the entire game and win by 40. I don't get how some of those %'s are so low.

sorry for ruining the straight predictions, but hopefully people will separate their comments and predictions to make it easier for you Tdawg.

[shrimp]

Southern Miss - 95%
UAB - 98%
@ S. Alabama - 98%
@ LSU - 25%
Texas A&M - 65%
Auburn - 60%
@ Kentucky - 65%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 98%
@ Alabama - 25%
Vanderbilt - 75%
@ Ole Miss - 40%

[MetEdDawg]

USA doesn't have a defensive tackle on their roster ready for what's coming at them. We could run an under center QB sneak the entire game and win by 40. I don't get how some of those %'s are so low.

sorry for ruining the straight predictions, but hopefully people will separate their comments and predictions to make it easier for you Tdawg.

To me I said 90% because I think 1 out of 10 times under these circumstances we could end up with a Troy on our hands. Road game against a weak opponent, but they will be pumped and so will their fans. They've got some talent. Probably should have said 95% to 97% which makes it 1 out of 20, but I still think that's one of those games that under the right circumstances could sneak up and get us. Also that's the 3rd game of the year so an unforseen set of circumstances for injuries or what have you could hurt us. I don't think it will though.

[sandwolf]

Southern Miss - 95%
UAB - 95%
@ S. Alabama - 90%
@ LSU - 30%
Texas A&M - 65%
Auburn - 40%
@ Kentucky - 75%
Arkansas - 80%
UT Martin - 98%
@ Alabama - 10%
Vanderbilt - 80%
@ Ole Miss - 40%

[preachermatt83]

98 Southern Miss
98 UAB
90 @ S. Alabama
51 @ LSU
55 Texas A&M
51 Auburn
80 @ Kentucky
80 Arkansas
99 UT Martin
35 @ Alabama
70 Vanderbilt
55 @ Ole Miss

[preachermatt83]

Southern Miss - 98%
UAB- 99%
@ S. Alabama- 90%
@ LSU - 30%
Texas A&M - 75%
Auburn - 45%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 85%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 5%
Vanderbilt - 70%
@ Ole Miss - 50%

somebody didn't read the rules! lol.

[Dawg496]

Southern Miss - 85%
UAB - 84%
@ S. Alabama - 75%
@ LSU - 20%
Texas A&M - 49%
Auburn - 35%
@ Kentucky - 65%
Arkansas - 70%
UT Martin - 98%
@ Alabama - 10%
Vanderbilt - 70%
@ Ole Miss - 35%

[MetEdDawg]

somebody didn't read the rules! lol.

Good catch. Fixed it like it's supposed to be which is 51%

[dparker]

85 Southern Miss
70 UAB
90 @ S. Alabama
55 @ LSU
65 Texas A&M
60 Auburn
70 @ Kentucky
55 Arkansas
85 UT Martin
30 @ Alabama
65 Vanderbilt
51 @ Ole Miss

[TheRef]

92% vs. USM
89% vs. UAB
94% @ USA
57% @ LSU
70% vs. aTm
65% vs. Auburn
85% @ UK
60% vs. Arkansas
87% vs. UT-Martin
27% @ Alabama
70% vs. Vanderbilt
55% @ Ole Miss

[mstatefan91]

Southern Miss - 93%
UAB - 96%
@ S. Alabama - 96%
@ LSU - 40%
Texas A&M - 70%
Auburn - 51%
@ Kentucky - 85%
Arkansas - 70%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 15%
Vanderbilt - 85%
@ Ole Miss - 60%

[codeDawg]

99.9% Southern Miss
99.9% UAB
75% @ S. Alabama
55% @ LSU
60% Texas A&M
49% Auburn
70% @ Kentucky
80% Arkansas
99% UT Martin
20% @ Alabama
70% Vanderbilt
49% @ Ole Miss

[Alldawg]

USM - 96%
UAB - 96%
@ S. Alabama - 96%
@ LSU - 6%
Texas A&M - 69%
Auburn - 69%
@ Kentucky - 96%
Arkansas - 69%
UT Martin - 96%
@ Alabama - 6%
Vandy - 96%
@ OM - 6%

[Irondawg]

98 Southern Miss
96 UAB
97 @ S. Alabama
42 @ LSU
60 Texas A&M
55 Auburn
76 @ Kentucky
79 Arkansas
98 UT Martin
23 @ Alabama
71 Vanderbilt
54 @ Ole Miss

[DawgPoundtheRock]

Southern Miss-90
UAB-90
@ S. Alabama-90
@ LSU-33
Texas A&M-67
Auburn-60
@ Kentucky-75
Arkansas-75
UT Martin-90
@ Alabama-20
Vanderbilt-75
@ Ole Miss-67

[Dawg496]

You guys are seriously wooly, but I can't wait to see the averages.

[PassInterference]

Southern Miss 98%
UAB 94%
@ S. Alabama 70%
@ LSU 40%
Texas A&M 70%
Auburn 51%
@ Kentucky 68%
Arkansas 85%
UT Martin 99%
@ Alabama 25%
Vanderbilt 80%
@ Ole Miss 52%

[PassInterference]

USA doesn't have a defensive tackle on their roster ready for what's coming at them. We could run an under center QB sneak the entire game and win by 40. I don't get how some of those %'s are so low.

sorry for ruining the straight predictions, but hopefully people will separate their comments and predictions to make it easier for you Tdawg.

For what they are, USA was strong last year. Seems like a away @Troy style trap game.

[LC Dawg]

Southern Miss - 95
UAB - 95
@ S. Alabama - 90
@ LSU - 33
Texas A&M - 70
Auburn - 55
@ Kentucky - 80
Arkansas - 80
UT Martin - 99
@ Alabama - 10
Vanderbilt - 80
@ Ole Miss - 60

[dawgoneyall]

Southern Miss 85%
UAB 95%
@ S. Alabama 80%
@ LSU 40%
Texas A&M 70%
Auburn 65%
@ Kentucky 75%
Arkansas 75%
UT Martin 95%
@ Alabama 25%
Vanderbilt 75%
@ Ole Miss 60%

[BiscuitEater]

Southern Miss - 95%
UAB - 95%
@ S. Alabama - 90%
@ LSU - 45%
Texas A&M - 60%
Auburn - 55%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 70%
UT Martin - 95%
@ Alabama - 25%
Vanderbilt - 75%
@ Ole Miss - 55%

[Political Hack]

For what they are, USA was strong last year. Seems like a away @Troy style trap game.

no doubt they're a good sunbelt team, but they won't even win the conference. when's the last time CDM lost to conference USA or Sunbelt team?

[cubswillwinitonedaydawg]

Southern Miss - 96%
UAB - 96%
@ S. Alabama - 94%
@ LSU - 38%
Texas A&M - 55%
Auburn - 45%
@ Kentucky - 70%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 98%
@ Alabama - 20%
Vanderbilt - 75%
@ Ole Miss - 48%

[TUSK]

Let an ole Psychophant give it a try:

Southern Miss - 90%+
UAB - 90%+
@ S. Alabama - 90%+
@ LSU - 20%
Texas A&M - 75%
Auburn - 33%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 90%+
@ Alabama - no.
Vanderbilt - 90%+
@ Ole Miss - 55%

[mstatefan91]

Is Tusk even allowed to post in this type of thread?

[TUSK]

Is Tusk even allowed to post in this type of thread?

90%+

[mstatefan91]

90%+

I'm just messing around

[Political Hack]

Let an ole Psychophant give it a try:

Southern Miss - 90%+
UAB - 90%+
@ S. Alabama - 90%+
@ LSU - 20%
Texas A&M - 75%
Auburn - 33%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 90%+
@ Alabama - no.
Vanderbilt - 90%+
@ Ole Miss - 55%

I hate that I like your response.

[gravedigger]

Southern Miss.....97%
UAB..................90%
S. Alabama..........90%
LSU....................52%
Texas A&M...........75%
Auburn................60%
Kentucky.............70%
Arkansas..............85%
UT Martin..............95%
Alabama...............40%
Vanderbilt.............80%
Ole Miss...............65%

[gravedigger]

Lets start by saying Ill take right the f#$k now your 20-80 odds on the LSU game and your 33-66 odds on the auburn game.

Name your price. We'll talk about the bama game and what you have to bet to even up your losses at that time.

[gravedigger]

40 fu$&ing percent against UM?

Misprint. Start over.

[TUSK]

Lets start by saying Ill take right the f#$k now your 20-80 odds on the LSU game and your 33-66 odds on the auburn game.

Name your price. We'll talk about the bama game and what you have to bet to even up your losses at that time.

that sounds reasonable... I'll give you MSU v LSU straight up and MSU v Auburn straight up...

if you hit both, I'll send you $150 and donate another $50 to ED...

if we split, it's a "push"...

if I hit both, you pick me up and drive me to Bryant Denny Stadium for the Bammer/MSU game where we will sit in chairback seats on the ~45 yardline/row ~22... oh, and I want a fifth of (good) whiskey, too.

[Tdawg]

Let an ole Psychophant give it a try:

Southern Miss - 90%+
UAB - 90%+
@ S. Alabama - 90%+
@ LSU - 20%
Texas A&M - 75%
Auburn - 33%
@ Kentucky - 80%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 90%+
@ Alabama - no.
Vanderbilt - 90%+
@ Ole Miss - 55%

WTF, man? Participate if you want, but at least loosely follow the rules. And speaking of rules, Jesus guys--there weren't that many. Don't discuss (and create bias), no 0, 100, 50--any other NUMBER is game. This shouldn't have been hard, TUSK, Political Hack, coach34... Y'all are the damn Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed of this board and can't follow simple rules.

[TUSK]

I didn't have any 0, 50 or 100%...

If you're talkin about "no", I'll change that to 5%...

sorry, buddy...

[PassInterference]

I didn't have any 0, 50 or 100%...

If you're talkin about "no", I'll change that to 5%...

sorry, buddy...

5%?

Give us a score.

[Tdawg]

I didn't have any 0, 50 or 100%...

If you're talkin about "no", I'll change that to 5%...

sorry, buddy...

Explain to me how to enter a number for "90%+".

[TUSK]

Explain to me how to enter a number for "90%+".

ahhhhhh, totally my bad, man.... you prolly cookin up an XLS...

put me down for 97% on all of em... sorry, again....

[TUSK]

5%?

Give us a score.

yikes, don't hold me to it, but if I hazard to guess, I'd go something like 27-13...

I just pulled that one out of my trunk spur o the moment....

[cheewgumm]

Hahahahha ...."no" is
Not a percent.

[PassInterference]

yikes, don't hold me to it, but if I hazard to guess, I'd go something like 27-13...

I just pulled that one out of my trunk spur o the moment....


Bama usually pulls out a TD late. What if instead, we cause a TO and tie it up 20-20 late? Anything could happen after that.

We probably lose to Bama, but 5% is ridiculous. U La Mo would have a 5% chance.

[TUSK]

Bama usually pulls out a TD late. What if instead, we cause a TO and tie it up 20-20 late? Anything could happen after that.

We probably lose to Bama, but 5% is ridiculous. U La Mo would have a 5% chance.

actually, Saban "usually" has already taken his foot off the gas (late)...

MSU's defense gives them a chance every once and a while, their offense just can't seem to get any production (esp rushing) vs the Bama defense...

I think this year will be more competitive than in years past, FWIW.

[Mutt the Hoople]

Hey, Tusk. Saw where the folks living at my old house are using the fort for their satellite dish.
Southern Miss (65%)
I was in college when USM would puddle-stomp us. However, it's been 24 years and a lot has changed. The State team will be fired up with the new stadium and I see them winning.
UAB 85%
Dan Mullen doesn't lose to less-talented teams.
@ S. Alabama 75%
We have more talent, the talent gap isn't as big as everybody thinks. Former Bammer Joey Jones is HC, and he's getting a lot of the players USM used to get. Could be a trap game.
@ LSU 43.579%
State is playing in Red Stick, and we haven't beaten them in the 21st Century. However, Dak Prescott is Wild Card. I always wondered how we got that guy, instead of him going to LSU, Arkansas, or some Big 12 School
Texas A&M 58.264%
They don't have Johnny Foosball, but they also don't have the reasons Manziel was a first round draft pick there either- Mike Evans or Jake Matthews. Their defense is atrocious, and they play us at Scott Field
Auburn 52.675%
Auburn had a miraculous run, what with the Georgia DB's trying to make an INT instead of knocking it down, and Tricky Nicky going for a Field Goal instead of giving Greg McElroy a Doug Flutie moment with a Hail Mary. Don't ever take Auburn lightly, but we play them at Scott Field and the place will be rocking.
@ Kentucky 68.274%
New Coach, new attitude, same old Kentucky players.
Arkansas 50.0000006%
We've never beaten an Arkansas Coach after his first year there. However, Bret Bielema might be enough of a train wreck to overcome this curse...after all, we broke the Little Rock Curse AND the Overtime Curse last year (we're now about 1-4 against Arkansas in OT's).
UT Martin 98.675%
Homecoming fun
@ Alabama 38.586%
We play this game in Gumpville, else the chance would be 38.587%. The King of the Munchkins always has his team ready to play The Mississippi State University (not Auburn or Tennessee intense, but enough to let everyone know he doesn't want to lose to us.
Vanderbilt 64.796%
If James Franklin was still there, I'd say we lose. However, you have a new coach and they just might go back to being Vanderbilt.
@ Ole Miss 51.664%
They are playing at home, they'll probably be playing for Bowl Eligibility, and we might be flat thinking ahead to the SEC championship game. If Scout and Rahvals recruiting rankings counted in football games, they'd beat us 110-0 (and probably beat Bammer as well). However, as they'll find out playing Boise State, Recruiting Rankings were created for fan bases who buy Intrawebs and Magazine subscriptions. OUR biggest advantage is that their fan base is morally, spiritually, ethically, and genetically inferior....when their players hear WE ARE...OLE MISS, it HAS to make them hang their heads a bit.

[The Federalist Engineer]

99 Southern Miss
99 UAB
99 @ S. Alabama
19 @ LSU
60 Texas A&M
52 Auburn
80 @ Kentucky
75 Arkansas
99 UT Martin
08 @ Alabama
81 Vanderbilt
75 @ Ole Miss

[defiantdog]

First off.... Tusk, percentage wise, picked us to be 9 - 3. While Coach predicted us, percentage wise, to be 8 - 4. What in the hell is going on here?!?!?!?!?!

Southern Miss 98%
UAB 98%
@ S. Alabama 98%
@ LSU 49% .... it's early and they're still developing
Texas A&M 65% .... we'll see how they are without Johnny Football
Auburn 51% .... I don't know why, but I'm feeling confident about this one
@ Kentucky 51% .... for some reason, we always play this one close
Arkansas 65% .... if we stop the run early, they're done
UT Martin 98%
@ Alabama 25% .... crazier things have happened
Vanderbilt 75% .... new coach, new system, new problems
@ Ole Miss 51% .... it's away

[PassInterference]

The Arkansas funk is over because they are no longer a sandwich between Bama and Ole Miss.

[TUSK]

bump and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7wSefU2H9Q


that sounds reasonable... I'll give you MSU v LSU straight up and MSU v Auburn straight up...

if you hit both, I'll send you $150 and donate another $50 to ED...

if we split, it's a "push"...

if I hit both, you pick me up and drive me to Bryant Denny Stadium for the Bammer/MSU game where we will sit in chairback seats on the ~45 yardline/row ~22... oh, and I want a fifth of (good) whiskey, too.

[Political Hack]

WTF, man? Participate if you want, but at least loosely follow the rules. And speaking of rules, Jesus guys--there weren't that many. Don't discuss (and create bias), no 0, 100, 50--any other NUMBER is game. This shouldn't have been hard, TUSK, Political Hack, coach34... Y'all are the damn Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed of this board and can't follow simple rules.

as long as I get to be Apollo...

[cbrunt29]

USM 93%
UAB 96%
USA 92%
LSU 39%
A&M 59%
Aub 49.9%
UK 68%
Arky 72%
Ut Martin 97%
Bama 27%
Vandy 66%
UM 50.1%

[gravedigger]

that sounds reasonable... I'll give you MSU v LSU straight up and MSU v Auburn straight up...

if you hit both, I'll send you $150 and donate another $50 to ED...

if we split, it's a "push"...

if I hit both, you pick me up and drive me to Bryant Denny Stadium for the Bammer/MSU game where we will sit in chairback seats on the ~45 yardline/row ~22... oh, and I want a fifth of (good) whiskey, too.

I love that bet. I'm not sure how it holds you to the 20% or the 33% chance you give msu in the LSU and auburn games. But I will take it.

[BulldogBear]

Southern Miss.....99%
UAB..................96%
S. Alabama..........89%
LSU....................39%
Texas A&M...........85%
Auburn................80% O.V.E.R.R.A.T.E.D. -like...silly overrated
Kentucky.............75%
Arkansas..............85%
UT Martin..............99%
Alabama...............15%
Vanderbilt.............70%
Ole Miss...............53%

[Red Sox Dawg]

Southern Miss 95%
UAB. 95%
@ S. Alabama. 92%
@ LSU. 33%
Texas A&M. 55%
Auburn. 58%
@ Kentucky. 67%
Arkansas. 67%
UT Martin. 98%
@ Alabama. 33%
Vanderbilt. 80%
@ Ole Miss. 54%

[TUSK]

I love that bet. I'm not sure how it holds you to the 20% or the 33% chance you give msu in the LSU and auburn games. But I will take it.

sweet, I'm glad to hear! I'll PM you... also, you gotta promise not to teabag my drunk ass if MSU happens to beat Bama...

[Political Hack]

sweet, I'm glad to hear! I'll PM you... also, you gotta promise not to teabag my drunk ass if MSU happens to beat Bama...

Elitedawgs: Bringing "real rivals" together since 2014.

[Political Hack]

Southern Miss - 96%
UAB - 93%
@ S. Alabama - 98%
@ LSU - 36%
Texas A&M - 59%
Auburn - 51%
@ Kentucky - 76%
Arkansas - 73%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 13%
Vanderbilt - 83%
@ Ole Miss - 51%

I was 16 percentage points away from nailing the season. Considering there's a total of 1,200% points to be spread evenly across the 12 games, I feel pretty good about that. Where did y'all fall?

[Tdawg]

I was 16 percentage points away from nailing the season. Considering there's a total of 1,200% points to be spread evenly across the 12 games, I feel pretty good about that. Where did y'all fall?

No you weren't. You had 8.28 wins projected. You thought Vanderbilt had a better chance of beating us than we had of beating Alabama. In fact, if you plug your percentages into the Pythagorean score predictor based upon the total points scored in each game then you had each game as the following:

Southern Miss - 39-10 State
UAB - 60-21 State
S. Alabama - 29-5 State
LSU - 35-28 LSU
Texas A&M - 42-35 State
Auburn - 31-30 State
Kentucky - 48-30 State
Arkansas - 16-11 State
UT Martin - 39-5 State
Alabama - 31-14 Alabama
Vanderbilt - 34-17 State
Ole Miss - 24-23 State

You nailed S. Alabama and Arkansas.

[Political Hack]

No you weren't. You had 8.28 wins projected. You thought Vanderbilt had a better chance of beating us than we had of beating Alabama. In fact, if you plug your percentages into the Pythagorean score predictor based upon the total points scored in each game then you had each game as the following:

Southern Miss - 39-10 State
UAB - 60-21 State
S. Alabama - 29-5 State
LSU - 35-28 LSU
Texas A&M - 42-35 State
Auburn - 31-30 State
Kentucky - 48-30 State
Arkansas - 16-11 State
UT Martin - 39-5 State
Alabama - 31-14 Alabama
Vanderbilt - 34-17 State
Ole Miss - 24-23 State

You nailed S. Alabama and Arkansas.

my "pre-calculus" math shows 10-2 with an error of 2% chance to lose against Ole Miss and an error of 15% chance to win against LSU. Theoretical math is making assumptions that my 51+% is not considered a win in my eyes. That's incorrect.

however, I should've said 17% so regardless, I fail today's math quiz.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's what I said but I don't have a clue what kind of statisical analysis y'all are doing so I have no idea how close I came.

Southern Miss - 97%
UAB - 95%
@ S. Alabama - 95%
@ LSU - 54%
Texas A&M - 77%
Auburn - 72%
@ Kentucky - 76%
Arkansas - 75%
UT Martin - 99%
@ Alabama - 14%
Vanderbilt - 82%
@ Ole Miss - 70%