Win totals

[LeakyD]

I've been contemplating betting the over 7.5 wins for State. The odds have remained steady on my site at -115 for both over and under. I still intend to bet it, but was hoping for better odds.

Also interesting is OM win total is now 8. I'm not sure but I thought it was 8.5 earlier. The under 8 is -140. Vegas is right more than not. I'm pessimistic when it comes to OM because I enjoy them losing so much. This makes me feel better since Vegas usually knows best. The fact that you have to lay $140 to win $100 for OM to win 7 or less gives me hope.

[rrog17]

Over 7.5 wins is +120 at 5dimes.

[LeakyD]

I got burned by Heritage Sports two years ago. They gave us the runaround when we tried to withdraw our cash. Never saw a penny. Over 10G. Luckily, there are some bookies that use online betting.

[Political Hack]

should win:
All 4 OOC games.
Vandy
Kentucky.
Arkansas.

That's 7.

Toss up for wins against:
OM
A&M

Probably losses at:
LSU
Auburn
Bama

however, even the probable losses are very winnable this year (2 of the 3 IMO).

[RougeDawg]

That line move from 8.5 to 8 seems odd. I flues booger abs the rear if ESPN haven't placed their bets yet.

[rrog17]

They also have us:
+210 to win over 8
+11.5 at LSU
-4 vs TX A&M
+8 vs AU
+9 at UMiss Bears
+20000 to win it all
+4000 to win the SEC
+2200 to win the SEC West
+7500 for Dak to win the Heisman

[maroonmania]

IMO 8 wins is a slam dunk IF Dak stays healthy. That is why I won't bet it because of the injury factor and the possibility of him going down early in the season. I personally think we go in the neighborhood of 9-3 +/- 1 game with Dak but that could drop to the 6-7 win range quickly without him. Our offense put up very few points the 2 games that Damien played most of the minutes for last year (Ark and OM). I know Williams will be improved this year if somehow we lost Dak but I haven't seen how much yet. Plus, for some mysterious reason, our WR corps (at least last year) had a lot of trouble catching balls thrown by Williams. Don't know why but in the AL, Ark and OM games we had multiple receivers dropping balls right in the hands from Damien but then when Tyler or Dak were in there they caught most everything. May be coincidence or it may be that Damien has a different spin on the ball or something, I don't know.

[chainedup_Dawg]

should win:
All 4 OOC games.
Vandy
Kentucky.
Arkansas.

That's 7.

Toss up for wins against:
OM
A&M

Probably losses at:
LSU
Auburn
Bama

however, even the probable losses are very winnable this year (2 of the 3 IMO).

I think you can move the A&M game up to the should win column and the Auburn game up to the toss up column.

[HSVDawg]

Do these lines include wins in conference championship games and playoff / bowl games, or is it restricted to regular season wins only?

[rrog17]

Just regular season wins.

[Tdawg]

I've been contemplating betting the over 7.5 wins for State. The odds have remained steady on my site at -115 for both over and under. I still intend to bet it, but was hoping for better odds.

Also interesting is OM win total is now 8. I'm not sure but I thought it was 8.5 earlier. The under 8 is -140. Vegas is right more than not. I'm pessimistic when it comes to OM because I enjoy them losing so much. This makes me feel better since Vegas usually knows best. The fact that you have to lay $140 to win $100 for OM to win 7 or less gives me hope.

8 wins is "chalk". Assuming all the normal we stay healthy, yada, yada, the only way we don't get to 8 is if we lose a game that we shouldn't AND not win one of the games we "could", but probably shouldn't. And I'm even putting Auburn in the category of should lose even though I think that is much closer to a toss up. I have us clearly favored in 7 game, a toss-up favorite in 1, toss-up dog in 2 and clearly a dog in 3 games. 2 of the 3 "toss-up" games are at home, so I like our chances.

[BhamDawg]

I've been contemplating betting the over 7.5 wins for State. The odds have remained steady on my site at -115 for both over and under. I still intend to bet it, but was hoping for better odds.

I got it at +115 on my site back in July, it has since dropped to -115. I don't think it is going to change between now and next Thursday.

[HSVDawg]

8 wins is "chalk". Assuming all the normal we stay healthy, yada, yada, the only way we don't get to 8 is if we lose a game that we shouldn't AND not win one of the games we "could", but probably shouldn't. And I'm even putting Auburn in the category of should lose even though I think that is much closer to a toss up. I have us clearly favored in 7 game, a toss-up favorite in 1, toss-up dog in 2 and clearly a dog in 3 games. 2 of the 3 "toss-up" games are at home, so I like our chances.

I may be in the minority, but barring one or more key injuries before the Auburn game (or early in the Auburn game), I think there is no excuse for losing to them this year, period. We are even with them if not superior to them talent-wise as evidenced by last year's contest, and we are playing at home. This is not to even mention they are losing their LT (#2 draft pick) along with an 1,800 yard rusher. If Mullen doesn't pull out this win, he sure as hell better pull a rabbit out of his ass against LSU or Bama because this is by far his best chance to get that win over a highly ranked team that has eluded him thus far.

[War Machine Dawg]

I've been contemplating betting the over 7.5 wins for State. The odds have remained steady on my site at -115 for both over and under. I still intend to bet it, but was hoping for better odds.

Also interesting is OM win total is now 8. I'm not sure but I thought it was 8.5 earlier. The under 8 is -140. Vegas is right more than not. I'm pessimistic when it comes to OM because I enjoy them losing so much. This makes me feel better since Vegas usually knows best. The fact that you have to lay $140 to win $100 for OM to win 7 or less gives me hope.

Bet the house, the farm, savings, take out a loan and put it ALL on the over 7.5. Hell, borrow whatever money you can from friends while you're at it. We aren't winning fewer than 8, barring catastrophic injuries. Or put half on us and put the other half on the under for TSUN. They ain't winning 8.

[Bubb Rubb]

If you use the rationale that Mullen has historically won the games he's supposed to, then eight wins is the absolute floor for the team this year. If you use the rationale that he struggles with ranked opponents not named Ole Miss, then eight wins becomes the ceiling. I think he breaks through this year, though, and we go 9-3, with losses to Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Like Hack said though, I will be disappointed if we lose to all three of those teams - all of them are winnable if we are healthy. If we beat LSU early, look out. Unfortunately, we haven't done that in 15 years.

[RougeDawg]

I just did a quick online search and they hae OM and us at 7.5 wins. If Vegas thinks this about each team, why is one being hyped to win the Super Bowl and the other narely mentioned?

[cubswillwinitonedaydawg]

I just did a quick online search and they hae OM and us at 7.5 wins. If Vegas thinks this about each team, why is one being hyped to win the Super Bowl and the other narely mentioned?

While I agree that they're being over-hyped, I'm perfectly fine with us flying under the radar and them booking hotels for atlanta. It would be great to see UMiss fall flat (like UMiss 09) and us turn some heads (like Missouri 13). The way I look at it, if we have the kind of year we're capable of, the record will speak for itself. If we sputter, I'll be glad the hype wasn't there so we don't catch as much flack (UMiss 09, MSU 12 mid-season, etc.)

[RougeDawg]

While I agree that they're being over-hyped, I'm perfectly fine with us flying under the radar and them booking hotels for atlanta. It would be great to see UMiss fall flat (like UMiss 09) and us turn some heads (like Missouri 13). The way I look at it, if we have the kind of year we're capable of, the record will speak for itself. If we sputter, I'll be glad the hype wasn't there so we don't catch as much flack (UMiss 09, MSU 12 mid-season, etc.)

No, I'm with you on the feeling that they are poised for a nice face plant this season. My point was, how does Vegas have such a drastic perception on the Beavers this year than the ESPN's and the Phil Steele's of the world? I've been pointing this out to some bears and bulldog fans and they can't seem to wrap their brains around the fact that the people who get paid to follow and know about the sport have drastic opinions than those who get paid on magazine purchases and TV sets tuned in. I've been saying that ESPN and the Publications have been building this up since the great recruiting class(es) rolled in and have created a false perception to increase their own revenues (magazines and TV sets tuned in) while Vegas has set the odds for them to make $. Each of these two approaches is used to benefit each business model. The Magazines and Networks can only ride the #5 recruiting class headline for so long, so they have to hype it and pump it up as much as possible before the window of opportunity passes. Then they'll move on to the next $ generating headline. ESPN and Phil Steele will lose that window as soon as OM falls flat on their buck teeth, so they are exploiting the situation, because we all know OM fans have more $ than sense and are willing to fork out globs of money for pay sites and things of this nature. The Bear buddy says it's sour grapes, but he doesn't understand business models and how to cater to specific audience groups.

If Vegas was sold on the propaganda from the last two years, the win total would be much higher. I have attempted to point this out to my Bear buddy and he keeps saying I'm an idiot because all of the magazines and networks keep saying how good they are. But he has no answer when I talk about the same O/U win total this year.

[Tdawg]

I may be in the minority, but barring one or more key injuries before the Auburn game (or early in the Auburn game), I think there is no excuse for losing to them this year, period. We are even with them if not superior to them talent-wise as evidenced by last year's contest, and we are playing at home. This is not to even mention they are losing their LT (#2 draft pick) along with an 1,800 yard rusher. If Mullen doesn't pull out this win, he sure as hell better pull a rabbit out of his ass against LSU or Bama because this is by far his best chance to get that win over a highly ranked team that has eluded him thus far.

The only thing I would say about this is that us and the Bears played Auburn early in the season while they were still fitting pieces together under a new staff. Auburn was far better by the end of the season than they were when they played us. Auburn will still be very good this season--their schedule is what makes it nearly impossible to imagine them being a title contender, but they'll be much better than the team we faced in Auburn last season--as will we (I hope).

[drunkernhelldawg]

I'm less worried about Dak than I am the Special Teams issue. We actually have a good backup QB in Damein Williams, the way I see things.

[maroonmania]

I'm less worried about Dak than I am the Special Teams issue. We actually have a good backup QB in Damein Williams, the way I see things.

I think Damien is a much better backup than we normally have BUT if you don't think that for this season it will be a BIG step down from Dak to any other QB on our roster then you are fooling yourself. And the Dak from August of last year is a big step down from the Dak starting this season as well.