Keep an eye on the tropics

[DownwardDawg]

Got a little trouble brewing in the Atlantic. Possible threat to the northern central gulf next week.

[War Machine Dawg]

It would come a ****ing hurricane for our season opener. I'll still go, but it'll be tempting as hell to stay home and watch all the other badass openers that day like UGA-Clemson.

[TheRef]

Don't worry, guys. I've got y'all covered on watching the tropics. If anything is coming, I'll tell you!

[FISHDAWG]

Don't worry, guys. I've got y'all covered on watching the tropics. If anything is coming, I'll tell you!

I hope so Ref ... moving to Biloxi on Labor Day weekend and right on the beach - you let me know

[slickdawg]

Models more than three days out are for entertainment purposes only.

The GFS has had several phantom tropical systems this year, I'd hold off on worrying about this at all.

[starkvegasdawg]

Definitely not time to push the panic button. There's been a handful of these this season and most have fizzled out. What you do need to do if you live in a vulnerable area is make sure you are prepared to deal with a tropical system. Do that now while you have time and not when the storm is bearing down on you.

[TheRef]

I hope so Ref ... moving to Biloxi on Labor Day weekend and right on the beach - you let me know

Don't you worry, Fish. I got your back.

[DownwardDawg]

Models more than three days out are for entertainment purposes only.

The GFS has had several phantom tropical systems this year, I'd hold off on worrying about this at all.

I'm a total amateur at weather, but in my business, you watch the tropics. This is the 1st one of the season that Impact Weather has started really talking about. Still, it's a long way out, and they certainly are admitting that. It has a better than 50% chance of developing.

[Todd4State]

This is a good place to hijack this as any- but I think that if it does monsoon in Starkville, it's probably going to benefit us since we are a run first offense. To me, I would think rain would benefit a team that likes to run the ball a lot.

And unless I'm way off, I expect USM to throw the ball a lot.

[ShotgunDawg]

This is a good place to hijack this as any- but I think that if it does monsoon in Starkville, it's probably going to benefit us since we are a run first offense. To me, I would think rain would benefit a team that likes to run the ball a lot.

And unless I'm way off, I expect USM to throw the ball a lot.

Meh, I don't really care about what side it benefits, we are playing USM for goodness sakes.

I don't want it to rain because rain causes more injuries and increases the variables and opportunities for the lesser team. Fumbles, slips, etc...

[slickdawg]

This is a good place to hijack this as any- but I think that if it does monsoon in Starkville, it's probably going to benefit us since we are a run first offense. To me, I would think rain would benefit a team that likes to run the ball a lot.

And unless I'm way off, I expect USM to throw the ball a lot.


If they want to challenge Love, Calhoun and Redmond while the best Dline in the SEC is after their QB, so be it.

[ShotgunDawg]

If they want to challenge Love, Calhoun and Redmond while the best Dline in the SEC is after their QB, so be it.

They're going to do what all smaller teams, including Ole Miss, do against us: They are going to throw short, quick passes, and try to get a guy in space.

[I seen it dawg]

We need to win by more than 31.....just saying

[DownwardDawg]

Lol. We need some football bad around here! A post about a possible tropical threat turned into another football thread. Gotta love it!!

[elitedawgs]

They're going to do what all smaller teams, including Ole Miss, do against us: They are going to throw short, quick passes, and try to get a guy in space.

0 offensive touchdowns, I'll take that. I hope our special teams doesn't force feed them 1-2 TD's.

[Todd4State]

Meh, I don't really care about what side it benefits, we are playing USM for goodness sakes.

I don't want it to rain because rain causes more injuries and increases the variables and opportunities for the lesser team. Fumbles, slips, etc...

There is a saying that a wet field can level the playing field. That's my concern. Small concern.

[DownwardDawg]

"Recent model runs are indicating an increasing threat to the Gulf of Mexico for next week."

This is the latest update.

[TheRef]

"Recent model runs are indicating an increasing threat to the Gulf of Mexico for next week."

This is the latest update.

I got y'all. The only problem I see with this is the extreme amount of shear that this conglomerate of storms will run into soon.

[DownwardDawg]

I got y'all. The only problem I see with this is the extreme amount of shear that this conglomerate of storms will run into soon.

Cool. I have this bizarre fascination with bad weather, especially hurricanes.

[TheRef]

Cool. I have this bizarre fascination with bad weather, especially hurricanes.

Haha. It's an interesting thing for sure, Down.

[War Machine Dawg]

Models more than three days out are for entertainment purposes only.

The GFS has had several phantom tropical systems this year, I'd hold off on worrying about this at all.

Definitely agree with this. Hell, the forecasters struggle getting it right from 24 hours before a lot of the time.

[PMDawg]

I got y'all. The only problem I see with this is the extreme amount of shear that this conglomerate of storms will run into soon.

Nm

[RougeDawg]

Nothing to see here. The water temps are 82-83 where the low is currently and the maximum temps in entire gulf are 86-87. This storm will not develop very much with the current water conditions. Remember that a majority of the large storms develop when the water is in the upper 80's and 90's for sure. Katrina year the central gulf was pushing 95-96. Along the coast we recorded a water temp of 98 a week before landfall, just off of Horn Island. Ocean felt like a hot tub that year. Hottest I've ever felt the water in my lifetime.

[TheRef]

Nothing to see here. The water temps are 82-83 where the low is currently and the maximum temps in entire gulf are 86-87. This storm will not develop very much with the current water conditions. Remember that a majority of the large storms develop when the water is in the upper 80's and 90's for sure. Katrina year the central gulf was pushing 95-96. Along the coast we recorded a water temp of 98 a week before landfall, just off of Horn Island. Ocean felt like a hot tub that year. Hottest I've ever felt the water in my lifetime.

That's the cold-blooded truth. SST are low surrounding the Low Pressure. Granted, SST in the Gulf are pretty high but not nearly as high as they were during Katrina. You walked into the Gulf that year and started sweating. Not to mention that there's a section of 40 knot shear right in the way of the Low Pressure system headed towards the Gulf.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw the latest GFS was brining it on shore around Gulf Shores as a borderline tropical storm at best. If that model verifies about all this storm is going to do is rain out some Labor Day weekend cookouts in Lower Alabama.

[AROB44]

I saw the latest GFS was brining it on shore around Gulf Shores as a borderline tropical storm at best. If that model verifies about all this storm is going to do is rain out some Labor Day weekend cookouts in Lower Alabama.

I'll take it down here if it will help alleviate the heat !!!

[TheRef]

FWIW, I don't see this system making it very far due to the > 40 knots of shear that it will have to push through and the less than favorable SST that it will have to travel to, if it wants to do that. That's the thing, the system is going to move towards the most favorable areas, and even then it's not that favorable.

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.

http://www.raindance.org/toronto/wp-content/uploads/Taken-liam-neeson-9059188-1920-1080.jpg

[DownwardDawg]

FWIW, I don't see this system making it very far due to the > 40 knots of shear that it will have to push through and the less than favorable SST that it will have to travel to, if it wants to do that. That's the thing, the system is going to move towards the most favorable areas, and even then it's not that favorable.

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.

http://www.raindance.org/toronto/wp-content/uploads/Taken-liam-neeson-9059188-1920-1080.jpg

Which site???

[Mjoelner34]

Which site???

Any site that this guy has anything to do with:
http://www.geek.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/al_gore_an_inconvenient_truth-580x362.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

Which site???

Just remember the name Kevin Martin. If you see his name attached to anything run as fast as you can away from it. He is the biggest fraud there is when it comes to fake weather reports. Douchebag has even threatened to sue the NWS when they came out and said he is a sham. Also big into stealing photos of storm chasers and passing them off as his own.

[State82]

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.[/IMG]

If it doesn't come from you Ref, we ain't buying.

[TheRef]

If it doesn't come from you Ref, we ain't buying.

Well besides the trusted sources such as NHC, NWS, or *winces* The Weather Channel.

[RougeDawg]

Well besides the trusted sources such as NHC, NWS, or *winces* The Weather Channel.

Haaaa. Those pathetic bastards are praying more than Freezus on a recruiting visit, that this storm develops into something news worthy. I cannot stand the weather channel folk. They love when terrible things happen weather wise.

Looks like this thing may just be a redundant phrase the weather channel people like to use, a "weather event".

[TheRef]

Haaaa. Those pathetic bastards are praying more than Freezus on a recruiting visit, that this storm develops into something news worthy. I cannot stand the weather channel folk. They love when terrible things happen weather wise.

Looks like this thing may just be a redundant phrase the weather channel people like to use, a "weather event".

Well I didn't want to leave anyone out. I don't like TWC personally. But I know some people do

[DownwardDawg]

Well I didn't want to leave anyone out. I don't like TWC personally. But I know some people do

Impact Weather is the one I trust for tropical weather. They get paid good money from the oil companies to provide accurate information. Well, as accurate as you can be when discussing tropics.

[scottycameron]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

[RC3]

Yeah might have had something to do with what, a couple of thousand people dying during Katrina. Wow

[Goat Holder]

Just remember the name Kevin Martin. If you see his name attached to anything run as fast as you can away from it. He is the biggest fraud there is when it comes to fake weather reports. Douchebag has even threatened to sue the NWS when they came out and said he is a sham. Also big into stealing photos of storm chasers and passing them off as his own.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2014/08/weather_hoaxer_sharing_false_h.html#incart_river

[Pollodawg]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

Maybe it was after huge portions of a major American city were destroyed. And Katrina was August 2005.

[TheRef]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

It's not just the rain. It's the 100+ MPH winds, 3+ feet of storm surge, extreme flash flooding, quick spawning tornadoes, complete leveling of property, I could go on and on. We haven't become pussies, to use your language, to the weather. We have become more aware if the damage that weather can create and the chaos it can leave behind. People like you make me want to take you hurricane chasing where there is NO escape. When you're in there, you can't just drive out of the way. You're in it for the long haul. We are actually very lucky to not get worse storms. Super Typhoon Haiyan would completely cripple the Southeastern United States. And it's not because we are pussies to weather now. It's because storms like that are basically animals. And if you think about it, they are. They do whatever they can to strengthen and survive. Katrina was a literal freak of nature. Haiyan was a freak of nature. So think before you make another dumbass comment like that.

[Beaver]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

I wouldn't phrase it like that. It's more that the media and other internet sources are ACTIVELY SCANNING the models for doomsday scenarios...whether it's a blizzard, tornado outbreak, hurricane, or flooding event. It started with Katrina in 2005 (not '03), increased with all the climate change talk for the rest of the decade, and really took off with the convergence of 2011 severe weather season plus Sandy in 2012 + SOCIAL MEDIA. Now, as the past couple of years have 'failed' to produce active hurricane and severe weather seasons (in the US-not the whole globe), the media/internet heroes are begging for something huge to strike the US so they can get views/page clicks/"verification" that 'global warming' is 'causing' all these massive weather disasters.

We have to find a balance between Americans being prepared for weather and Americans being scared of weather.

[DownwardDawg]

It's not just the rain. It's the 100+ MPH winds, 3+ feet of storm surge, extreme flash flooding, quick spawning tornadoes, complete leveling of property, I could go on and on. We haven't become pussies, to use your language, to the weather. We have become more aware if the damage that weather can create and the chaos it can leave behind. People like you make me want to take you hurricane chasing where there is NO escape. When you're in there, you can't just drive out of the way. You're in it for the long haul. We are actually very lucky to not get worse storms. Super Typhoon Haiyan would completely cripple the Southeastern United States. And it's not because we are pussies to weather now. It's because storms like that are basically animals. And if you think about it, they are. They do whatever they can to strengthen and survive. Katrina was a literal freak of nature. Haiyan was a freak of nature. So think before you make another dumbass comment like that.

This is the best response possible to such a dubmass post. I'd also like to add that some of us just enjoy watching these weather events unfold. We don't want to see people injured or have to suffer, but we are intrigued by the power of Mother Nature. Guess that makes me a *****. I'll take it.
Think about the thousands of workers in the Gulf of Mexico making a living for their families and providing a necessary product to America. Those people and their families would probably like to know well in advance if there is a potential storm coming.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's not just the rain. It's the 100+ MPH winds, 3+ feet of storm surge, extreme flash flooding, quick spawning tornadoes, complete leveling of property, I could go on and on. We haven't become pussies, to use your language, to the weather. We have become more aware if the damage that weather can create and the chaos it can leave behind. People like you make me want to take you hurricane chasing where there is NO escape. When you're in there, you can't just drive out of the way. You're in it for the long haul. We are actually very lucky to not get worse storms. Super Typhoon Haiyan would completely cripple the Southeastern United States. And it's not because we are pussies to weather now. It's because storms like that are basically animals. And if you think about it, they are. They do whatever they can to strengthen and survive. Katrina was a literal freak of nature. Haiyan was a freak of nature. So think before you make another dumbass comment like that.

Amazing what a little rain shower can do:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Hurricane_katrina_damage_gulfport_mississippi.jpg/800px-Hurricane_katrina_damage_gulfport_mississippi.jpg

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/americas_the_story_of_hurricane_katrina/img/3.jpg

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/18480-3/16kd970-biloxi-I-90

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/7333-6/mississippi+gulf+coast+damage_001

http://www.weatherstock.com/slides/Hurricane%2012-RF-CD.JPG

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/7963-6/north+end+of+Lake+Pontchartrain

[DownwardDawg]

Amazing what a little rain shower can do:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Hurricane_katrina_damage_gulfport_mississippi.jpg/800px-Hurricane_katrina_damage_gulfport_mississippi.jpg

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/americas_the_story_of_hurricane_katrina/img/3.jpg

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/18480-3/16kd970-biloxi-I-90

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/7333-6/mississippi+gulf+coast+damage_001

http://www.weatherstock.com/slides/Hurricane%2012-RF-CD.JPG

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/7963-6/north+end+of+Lake+Pontchartrain

Yeah, bunch of pussies.

[basedog]

May I add, I work for a logistics company which we do storm restoration work for many utility companies and other companies across the US. We set up staging sites for crews coming in to restore the power. I've done this over 15 years now and have worked well over 150 storms, the destruction damage I have seen is just unbelievable and really heart breaking. Not only Hurricanes but ice storms and of course Tornadoes! Most folks only see what these storms do locally, but when you fly over the damage and see how wide spread it is it's just devastating!
I guess my point is never under estimate what storms can and will do, I've ridden out a few and believe me some of them will put the fear of God in you!

It use to be I would pray for a storm cause that was job security when we first formed our company, now I pray I never see another storm but we are in an era that is and will produce more major storms as history has proved this over time!

Just just pray we never see an earthquake, but that is a ticking time bomb according to geologist and other experts, I don't want to imagine what will happen but I've seen experts talk about it and I wish I hadn't!

Just my two cents. I enjoy your post Ref, I pay attention to real weather folks as I have Impact Weather who are very good at watching Hurricanes and keeps our company up to date.

[STATEBALLIN]

Well besides the trusted sources such as NHC, NWS, or *winces* The Weather Channel.

Hey TheRef, you should really consider starting a blog and updating during football and baseball season. I know I would check it out all the time.

I always enjoy your posts!

[TheRef]

Hey TheRef, you should really consider starting a blog and updating during football and baseball season. I know I would check it out all the time.

I always enjoy your posts!

I already post my forecasts on Maroon and White Nation. I'll post my official forecast for the Southern Miss game on there Thursday afternoon. I'll update it on Friday, then do my final update on Saturday before the game.

[TimberBeast]

...we are in an era that is and will produce more major storms as history has proved this over time!

Where are you coming up with this?

[Political Hack]

Where are you coming up with this?

it's called climate change. it's real and only ignorant politically minded-asshats try to deny it.

[TimberBeast]

it's called climate change. it's real and only ignorant politically minded-asshats try to deny it.

Nice bait post, but no thanks.

[basedog]

Around 2002 I went to a convention that had all kind of experts from weather guru's to geologist experts. They showed a graph from over 100 years back to activity to what storms occurred, in this chart it had all sorts of data from temperature to to wind currents! This particular guy predicted then we would have 2 decades of some of the worse storms. I'm no gura by any means but looking back he has been right on the money. Like I said before, looking back on the history of weather gives these so called experts a lot of data to predict, which that is what it is, a prediction. I've seen a bunch over the last 15 years, I mean some of the worse in 100 year type storms!

Again, I'm no expert, but I work storms for a living on the logistic side!

[Goat Holder]

it's called climate change. it's real and only ignorant politically minded-asshats try to deny it.

You liberal types don't realize that you lose credibility when you go to insulting and declaring your viewpoint correct and condemning any others. Weather predictions are not factual.

[Johnson85]

Around 2002 I went to a convention that had all kind of experts from weather guru's to geologist experts. They showed a graph from over 100 years back to activity to what storms occurred, in this chart it had all sorts of data from temperature to to wind currents! This particular guy predicted then we would have 2 decades of some of the worse storms. I'm no gura by any means but looking back he has been right on the money. Like I said before, looking back on the history of weather gives these so called experts a lot of data to predict, which that is what it is, a prediction. I've seen a bunch over the last 15 years, I mean some of the worse in 100 year type storms!

Again, I'm no expert, but I work storms for a living on the logistic side!

I don't think anybody has good data that tells them hurricanes are getting more numerous or more intense. Tornadoes if you look at f4 and 5's (on teh theory that big tornados were still noticed and recorded even when we did not have sophisticated detection equipment) seem to indicate a slight decrease.

Destruction wise they will continue to get worse simply because there is more stuff to destroy, but by and large we are getting much safer from weather and earthquakes in the developed world but much less safe from solar weather.

[TheRef]

Around 2002 I went to a convention that had all kind of experts from weather guru's to geologist experts. They showed a graph from over 100 years back to activity to what storms occurred, in this chart it had all sorts of data from temperature to to wind currents! This particular guy predicted then we would have 2 decades of some of the worse storms. I'm no gura by any means but looking back he has been right on the money. Like I said before, looking back on the history of weather gives these so called experts a lot of data to predict, which that is what it is, a prediction. I've seen a bunch over the last 15 years, I mean some of the worse in 100 year type storms!

Again, I'm no expert, but I work storms for a living on the logistic side!

The reason why we have seen an increase in number and strength of storms over the past 100 years is due to more population and infrastructure on coastlines (damage inflation), and a better ability to see storms (thank you satellites). 2005 was the most amount of viewed storms in the satellite-era (since around 1980). We have no idea how many storms were in the Atlantic for years prior because we relied on observations from vessels. Same thing could be said for the increase in reported tornadoes. Put a population and reported tornado graph side-by-side and you will see a similar increase in both. All I'm saying is that the Earth is cyclical in weather patterns. Have we contributed? To a minuscule degree, yes. Not nearly to the number that Al Gore and other Global Warming/Global Change/Climate Change/whatever the hell they are calling it now are saying. /rant

[bgdog]

you lose credibility when you go to insulting and declaring your viewpoint correct and condemning any others.

self awareness

[starkvegasdawg]

it's called climate change. it's real and only ignorant politically minded-asshats try to deny it.

Is that you Al? Thanks for the internet, by the way.

But no one, and I mean no one, can say with 100% proof that the earth is getting warmer due to human actions on the planet. Is the planet warming? Perhaps. But things go in cycles. Hell, back when dinosaurs were tromping around the earth it was MUCH warmer than it was now. Sea levels were 100's of miles further inland than they are today. The earth was basically a tropical paradise compared to today's climate. Last I checked there weren't many of those evil coal fired power plants around back then. Certainly no SUV's with their 17mpg out on the interstates. No CFC's being emitted from cans of hairspray. Yet the earth was the hottest it has ever been. Then, around 10,000 years ago there was a freaking ice age. The coldest the earth has ever been. And although humans were wandering around the planet then I doubt their campfires and cave paintings were major contributing factors. Look, the earth is estimated to be 4.5 billion years old. We have been recording weather data for around 130 years. That is a sample size of 0.00000293%. I'm not a statitician but even I can tell you that is a far cry from a suitable smaple size. The earth has already shown it is capable of extreme climatic changes without any help from us. For us to think that we can affect something as complex as the climate of this planet to the degrees that Al Gore and the other tree huggers claim is pretty frigging egotistical. Humans are nothing more than a brief blip on the radar in the history of this world.

[War Machine Dawg]

Is that you Al? Thanks for the internet, by the way.

But no one, and I mean no one, can say with 100% proof that the earth is getting warmer due to human actions on the planet. Is the planet warming? Perhaps. But things go in cycles. Hell, back when dinosaurs were tromping around the earth it was MUCH warmer than it was now. Sea levels were 100's of miles further inland than they are today. The earth was basically a tropical paradise compared to today's climate. Last I checked there weren't many of those evil coal fired power plants around back then. Certainly no SUV's with their 17mpg out on the interstates. No CFC's being emitted from cans of hairspray. Yet the earth was the hottest it has ever been. Then, around 10,000 years ago there was a freaking ice age. The coldest the earth has ever been. And although humans were wandering around the planet then I doubt their campfires and cave paintings were major contributing factors. Look, the earth is estimated to be 4.5 billion years old. We have been recording weather data for around 130 years. That is a sample size of 0.00000293%. I'm not a statitician but even I can tell you that is a far cry from a suitable smaple size. The earth has already shown it is capable of extreme climatic changes without any help from us. For us to think that we can affect something as complex as the climate of this planet to the degrees that Al Gore and the other tree huggers claim is pretty frigging egotistical. Humans are nothing more than a brief blip on the radar in the history of this world.

Libs love having it both ways. Back in the 60s they were screaming "global cooling!!!111!!!!11!!11" Hell, there was a Time magazine cover proclaiming it. There is no such thing as man-made climate change. It's a natural, cyclical event. The earth warms for a while, then cools for a while. Man has zero impact on it. Shit, we've got emails from the "scientists" behind the propaganda admitting they faked the data. The whole concept is a hoax that's been hijacked for political purposes. Always has been, always will be.

[ScoobaDawg]

and thats enough. Ref will start a new thread when a new model comes out that shows any damage.

[Political Hack]

once again those jumping into the unnecessary political banter prove yourselves ignorant. I didn't say "global warming." I said "climate change." Climate change happens and it has massive impacts on the earth. The results of which can be catastrophic, locally and regionally. We are in a period of climate change now. Whether that's a prolonged warming period that can't be reversed is a debatable theory, but "climate change" is as real as the ass your using to sit on right now.

Y'all are so politically motivated to "disprove liberal agendas" that you don't take the time to consider what anyone is even talking about. You've got your talking points and your spew them nonsensically without reason.

Do this for me, in your best Larry the Cable Guy voice say "climate change is liberal nonsense."

Now do this for me, in your best James Bond voice say "climate change is real and the impacts are potentially catastrophic. it's an important issue that deserves serious policy discussions."