End of Season Hitting Analysis

[Will James]

*****Disclaimer, this post contains the work luck: this is not in any way meant to be an insult or in any way personal****

It has been well established that wOBA is probably the best all around stat to measure offensive output as it accurately combines on-base percentage and slugging percentage. wOBA is all about the results without any "luck" being factored in. Here is the season long wOBA numbers.



Renfroe
0.477


Detz
0.384


Pirtle
0.374


Frost
0.368


Frazier
0.367


Rea
0.364


Bradford
0.330


Slauter
0.326


Henderson
0.313


Armstrong
0.308


Ammirati
0.303


Porter
0.297


Norris
0.288


Fullerton
0.278


Robson
0.262


Britton
0.244


Hann
0.232



However, we know that in baseball there is a level of luck involved. One bloop hit could fall in where pissrod line drives could be caught by a diving CF. The best statistic used here is BABIP or Batting average on balls in play. Every 10 points of BABIP is woth just over 9 points of wOBA. (http://dallas.sbnation.com/2010/8/13/1622156/the-relationship-between-babip-and) MSU's team BABIP as a whole was .351.

The following is our team wOBA leaders after adjusting everyone's BABIP to the team average of .351.



Renfroe
0.463


Pirtle
0.384


Rea
0.377


Detz
0.369


Porter
0.363


Slauter
0.352


Frazier
0.350


Ammirati
0.334


Norris
0.331


Frost
0.327


Bradford
0.323


Henderson
0.317


Robson
0.315


Britton
0.303


Hann
0.303


Armstrong
0.257


Fullerton
0.218


Now remember not to think of these numbers in terms of batting average. This is Weighted (meaning slugging factor) On Base Percentage. Makes you further question Armstrong over Porter doesn't it.

[PMDawg]

Is there a point to any of this other than for you to announce that you love saber metrics? I think it's been well documented. Do you have a spreadsheet for your MSDoS and use it to beat your wife over the head with how "awesome" you are? MSDos = my shit don't stink, by the way.

[Will James]

Is there a point to any of this other than for you to announce that you love saber metrics? I think it's been well documented. Do you have a spreadsheet for your MSDoS and use it to beat your wife over the head with how "awesome" you are? MSDos = my shit don't stink, by the way.

Facts and information board.

[War Machine Dawg]

Is there a point to any of this other than for you to announce that you love saber metrics? I think it's been well documented. Do you have a spreadsheet for your MSDoS and use it to beat your wife over the head with how "awesome" you are? MSDos = my shit don't stink, by the way.

This is the type of post that belongs on the Pack.

[CadaverDawg]

This is the type of post that belongs on the Pack.

Yep.

I appreciate the stats and info.

[PMDawg]

God, the irony is too thick to even begin. So be it. If that's the nature of this board then so be it. It is what it is. Bapip, fip, woba, luck, and obscure random numbers get old. I can look at a guys swing, his BA, his HR, SLG % and tell you whether he's a good hitter or not. Likewise I can look at a pitchers mechanics, his ERA, K/BB and record and tell you if he's a good pitcher or not. All of these other obscure numbers are just so much nonsense.

[Will James]

I can look at a guys swing, his BA, his HR, SLG % and tell you whether he's a good hitter or not.

And I present to you Alex Detz. In SEC play he had one of the lowest BA and SLG in our lineup. Coupled with just one HR. you would say based on those stats he was subpar. I would say he was one of our most important hitters.

[War Machine Dawg]

PM, I'm kinda old school in regards to evaluating players myself. However, your initial post brought literally nothing to the thread. You insulted Will and presented no point to discuss. It was a very SPS post, whether you like it or not.

Also, you know damn well Will is a sabermetrics freak. I tend to agree with you that a lot of it is speculative bullshit, but you didn't attempt to make that point. Hell, you should have known his post was going to be some form of sabermetric analysis and either a) not read it if it was going to so clearly piss you off or b) come up with a counter argument to present.

[maroonmania]

And I present to you Alex Detz. In SEC play he had one of the lowest BA and SLG in our lineup. Coupled with just one HR. you would say based on those stats he was subpar. I would say he was one of our most important hitters.

You dang right he is because he is a walk machine and that doesn't factor in BA or SLG but it DOES regularly put someone on base in front of Renfroe.

[PMDawg]

Ok - totally sober try.

You are taking saber metrics and attempting to force them to fit in a situation in which they really do not apply. They were not meant to be used to set lineups on a day to day basis. Sure, they may tell you a guy has been a little lucky or unlucky, but that's the thing with baseball. People slump, people get hot. Saber metrics, nor anything else, cannot tell you WHEN a player will come out of either of those streaks. And you don't really need saber metrics to tell you that somebody is streaking or slumping. It's usually obvious. On top of that, a 50 or 60 something game college season is a much smaller sample size than SM is useful in analyzing. Over a couple of seasons, or a career, the stats you hate (ERA, BA, W/L, etc) and the ones you live (WOPA, fip, SiERRa, etc) will probably converge. So yes, SM can tell you what trend to expect....over several seasons. Again, not useful for everyday lineups. The most useful thing SM can do for you is identify players or prospects that may be under/over valued by the free market. They can tell you who to avoid or pursue in free agency and the draft. The trends used are established over seasons, not 50-60 game blocks. While some SM stats may be interesting, I don't believe trying to apply them to a single college season is very useful. I mean after all, SM says our 2nd most consistent pitcher isn't very good. BS.

I apologize for my "six pack response", old habits die hard. However, I don't view that as an insult at all. But I do understand the intent of this board in regards to that, so I will attempt to adapt accordingly.

[Will James]

Ok - totally sober try.

You are taking saber metrics and attempting to force them to fit in a situation in which they really do not apply. They were not meant to be used to set lineups on a day to day basis.

How does wOBA not apply?



a 50 or 60 something game college season is a much smaller sample size than SM is useful in analyzing.

SM is not written on stone tablets. It can be and is useful for college baseball. Getting on base is an aspect of it, how would that not be useful in college?



Over a couple of seasons, or a career, the stats you hate (ERA, BA, W/L, etc) and the ones you live (WOBA, fip, SIERA, etc) will probably converge. So yes, SM can tell you what trend to expect....over several seasons. Again, not useful for everyday lineups.

What? No. They are different statistics that measure different things. Again, it's not one set of things. It can be used in the long term and the short term. W-L and ERA are a resulting correlation to things like FIP and SIERA. Again, they are useful in making lineups, even day to day.



I mean after all, SM says our 2nd most consistent pitcher isn't very good. BS.

Wrong. Strictly going on the full season pitcher's SIERA and FIP, Ross correlates almost identically to Pollorena. Ross has a BABIP of .239 where Pollo's is .317. This, combined with the fact that Pollo is a starter and Ross a reliever, is the drastic difference in ERA.

Ross Mitchell = Luis Pollorena IMO.

[Homedawg]

How does wOBA not apply?




SM is not written on stone tablets. It can be and is useful for college baseball. Getting on base is an aspect of it, how would that not be useful in college?




What? No. They are different statistics that measure different things. Again, it's not one set of things. It can be used in the long term and the short term. W-L and ERA are a resulting correlation to things like FIP and SIERA. Again, they are useful in making lineups, even day to day.




Wrong. Strictly going on the full season pitcher's SIERA and FIP, Ross correlates almost identically to Pollorena. Ross has a BABIP of .239 where Pollo's is .317. This, combined with the fact that Pollo is a starter and Ross a reliever, is the drastic difference in ERA.

Ross Mitchell = Luis Pollorena IMO.

A legit question for you. Where are walks factored in? You say they are equal yet Luis walks more per inning. Another thing babip doesn't factor in is this, how hard is the contact? Pitchers w movement generally create softer contact, therefore, less hits. No statsheet is going to show that.

[Will James]

A legit question for you. Where are walks factored in? You say they are equal yet Luis walks more per inning. Another thing babip doesn't factor in is this, how hard is the contact? Pitchers w movement generally create softer contact, therefore, less hits. No statsheet is going to show that.

Walks are factored in both stats. Unless you have advanced cameras like the pros you aren't going to get exact measurements of speed of batted balls and stuff like that. Pollorena gives up more fly balls than Ross but at the college level HR aren't as plentiful so that isn't as much of a negative. Both have given up 2 jacks on the year.

When we are talking about how they fare against good competition both give up about the same rate of extra base hits in SEC play. Luis walks a few more but counters with more strikeouts. Just my opinion but I feel they get hit hard about the same.

Both have been useful arms for us and I feel that they provide just about the same for our team.