Charter gets SEC Network

[TheRef]

And now there are 90 million people who can watch SEC Network. Is that a lot?

[#660000]

And now there are 90 million people who can watch SEC Network. Is that a lot?

Even crazier to think - that is not 90 million people, it's 90 million households. That's a bunch of folks.

[fishwater99]

And now there are 90 million people who can watch SEC Network. Is that a lot?

Well there are 300 Million people in the US...

[engie]

Well there are 300 Million people in the US...

There are only about 97-100 million TV households in the country.

The only thing holding this from basically being a clean sweep is FiOS now...

[fishwater99]

There are only about 97-100 million TV households in the country.

The only thing holding this from basically being a clean sweep is FiOS now...

We had 117 million in last census, so probably closer to 120 now.

[1bigdawg]

And now there are 90 million people who can watch SEC Network. Is that a lot?

I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that ESPN was in 90 million households. ESPN@ was at 87 million.

[engie]

We had 117 million in last census, so probably closer to 120 now.

They census "number of pay tv households"?

ESPN is on basically every single paid tv service in the country -- and it's in 97 million homes...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/us-pay-tv-subs-drop-689581

As of the end of the year, the number of pay TV subscribers dipped to approximately 100 million, according to SNL Kagan.

[RattStevens]

The Disney Corporation is huge Obama supporters.
Disney owns ESPN.

Therefore, all of you people demanding the SEC Network are supporting Obama.

[starkvegasdawg]

They census "number of pay tv households"?

ESPN is on basically every single paid tv service in the country -- and it's in 97 million homes...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/us-pay-tv-subs-drop-689581

During the 2000 census they asked my grandparents how much food they had in their freezer. All of those questions they ask are illegal. All they are legally allowed to ask is the number of people that live at that residence. Everything else you can tell them to go hump a porcupine.

[sandwolf]

There are only about 97-100 million TV households in the country.

The only thing holding this from basically being a clean sweep is FiOS now...

Somebody recently posted on one of the boards that Scott Stricklin spoke at an event in North MS and that he said that he was only expecting the SEC Network to generate around $10-$12 million. Based on everything that you have posted and on the articles that Clay Travis has written, that number sounds completely ridiculous to me, but I would like to think that Stricklin would have a fairly decent idea of what to expect. Did you ever weigh in on that thread? Any idea as to why there is such a huge discrepancy between the numbers that he threw out versus the numbers that other people are throwing out?

[1bigdawg]

Somebody recently posted on one of the boards that Scott Stricklin spoke at an event in North MS and that he said that he was only expecting the SEC Network to generate around $10-$12 million. Based on everything that you have posted and on the articles that Clay Travis has written, that number sounds completely ridiculous to me, but I would like to think that Stricklin would have a fairly decent idea of what to expect. Did you ever weigh in on that thread? Any idea as to why there is such a huge discrepancy between the numbers that he threw out versus the numbers that other people are throwing out?

I have a couple of theories on the difference between Stricklin's statement and the articles we can read today. One, the first couple of years there will be a lot of start up costs on the university level and the network level. We don't know what the contract says about those costs at the network level, but the conference could be splitting the cost with ESPN and lowering our take for the first couple of years. Two, his number could have not included some of the networks, like Direct TV, and that could have effected his estimate. Finally, some have alleged that he could be low-balling to avoid hurting fundraising.

It is pretty clear that by year 3, we should take in between 30 and 40 million dollars per year. Boggles the mind.

[messageboardsuperhero]

I have a couple of theories on the difference between Stricklin's statement and the articles we can read today. One, the first couple of years there will be a lot of start up costs on the university level and the network level. We don't know what the contract says about those costs at the network level, but the conference could be splitting the cost with ESPN and lowering our take for the first couple of years. Two, his number could have not included some of the networks, like Direct TV, and that could have effected his estimate. Finally, some have alleged that he could be low-balling to avoid hurting fundraising.

It is pretty clear that by year 3, we should take in between 30 and 40 million dollars per year. Boggles the mind.

This is what I'm thinking as well. It will probably be less than these Clay Travis type of projections for the first couple of years because of start up costs. Stricklin is probably estimating what the network will bring in in year one, while everyone else is projecting for year three and beyond.

Plus Stricklin might be underselling a bit to push for more donations and contributions.

[engie]

Somebody recently posted on one of the boards that Scott Stricklin spoke at an event in North MS and that he said that he was only expecting the SEC Network to generate around $10-$12 million. Based on everything that you have posted and on the articles that Clay Travis has written, that number sounds completely ridiculous to me, but I would like to think that Stricklin would have a fairly decent idea of what to expect. Did you ever weigh in on that thread? Any idea as to why there is such a huge discrepancy between the numbers that he threw out versus the numbers that other people are throwing out?

There's going to be significant startup costs to us in year 1. We've spent $2+mil on campus infrastructure. Plus we've hired a crapload of people. Plus we had to buy out of our learfield sports tier 3 contract.

All that said -- Stricklin is lowballing in interviews that are essentially at fundraising events. He doesn't want to shock people with the number to an extent that they don't think what they give makes a difference anymore and thus don't give. So, IMO that part is a ploy. Just like last year when he implied that we didn't have the funds to pay assistant coaches -- when I showed the public revenue data showing a $7mil surplus in our athletics dept...

30mil households in the area @ $1.30 per(rumored to be $1.40 by comcast) -- $468mil per year
70mil households in the rest of the country at $0.25 per -- $210mil per year

$678 split with ESPN = $339mil
Split 15 ways = $22.6mil per school...

And that's before we assume advertisement revenue -- which I mostly expect to be enough to offset startup costs(maybe not -- we will see)...

[engie]

This is what I'm thinking as well. It will probably be less than these Clay Travis type of projections for the first couple of years because of start up costs. Stricklin is probably estimating what the network will bring in in year one, while everyone else is projecting for year three and beyond.

Plus Stricklin might be underselling a bit to push for more donations and contributions.

Yeah -- plus he said that before the latest 30million customers were on board in the past week or so(33% of overall)...

[MSUDawg4Life]

Somebody recently posted on one of the boards that Scott Stricklin spoke at an event in North MS and that he said that he was only expecting the SEC Network to generate around $10-$12 million. Based on everything that you have posted and on the articles that Clay Travis has written, that number sounds completely ridiculous to me, but I would like to think that Stricklin would have a fairly decent idea of what to expect. Did you ever weigh in on that thread? Any idea as to why there is such a huge discrepancy between the numbers that he threw out versus the numbers that other people are throwing out?

Is that $10-12 million in addition to the $20 million we already get? If so, that's a $30 - 32 million payday and nothing to sniff at.

[engie]

Is that $10-12 million in addition to the $20 million we already get? If so, that's a $30 - 32 million payday and nothing to sniff at.

Before considering we will make about an extra $7mil from the new bowl structure starting this year. And an extra $10mil from the stadium...

We'll be getting a $50mil check from the SEC by fiscal 2016 almost for sure. What's also not being discussed is that these channel contracts contain increase clauses. The SECNetwork will get more expensive at a rate of about 9-10% per year if it follows what ESPN has done previously...

[sandwolf]

The SECNetwork will get more expensive at a rate of about 9-10% per year if it follows what ESPN has done previously...

Damn, are you sure that the cost for ESPN increases at that rate? That is pretty ridiculous.

[engie]

Damn, are you sure that the cost for ESPN increases at that rate? That is pretty ridiculous.

Yes, it's something like that...

[fishwater99]

Damn, are you sure that the cost for ESPN increases at that rate? That is pretty ridiculous.

Yeah, that seems kind of high for an yearly increase... That means it would more than double in ten years.

[engie]

Yeah, that seems kind of high for an yearly increase... That means it would more than double in ten years.

At 9% it doubles every 8 years roughly. Sports TV subscription rates went up 113% between 2002 and 2013 per the WSJ. Right on pace with my numbers.