Anybody with an in-depth Egg Bowl analysis for this year?

[blacklistedbully]

I read a lot of posts about TSUN being tough this year, and about the home team almost always winning, but I can't shake this feeling we're going to be much better than TSUN this year than last, when the only things that kept it close were:

1) Us being without Dak for all but the last 7 minutes of the game, plus OT.
2) Them getting away with at least 2 t/o's due to them snapping the ball before replay officials could stop the game.
3) Them getting a freak blocked punt for TD

Yes, we were at home, but home-field advantage only accounts for so much, perhaps 3 points each way, or a 6-point swing from our place to theirs. So I view the HFA swinging TSUN's way by 6 points, which in most years would be plenty. But who here doesn't think, if we played this past Egg Bowl again with DP healthy and playing the entire game, and TSUN not getting every unbelievable break, including getting away with 2 or more t/o's, that we don't beat that TSUN team by much more than 6 points?

So here are a couple of questions, especially for those among us who think TSUN has the advantage this year or is at least a toss-up:

Which of our two teams has likely improved more from last year to this?
If you think MSU has improved as much or more than TSUN, how do you think that plays out on the field?
If you do believe MSU, with a healthy DP would have beaten TSUN soundly last year (by far more than 6 points for arguments sake), and that MSU is at least as much improved as TSUN this year, what would lead you to believe that TSUN should win or even be a toss-up, even with a 6-point swing due to HFA?

For my part, assuming both teams are relatively healthy, I truly believe we will beat them handily, history be damned, as I just don't think past history beyond the past few years is at all relevant in this discussion, as I believe conditions are significantly different from those that existed for the vast majority of past games.

Your thoughts?

[EAVdog]

In my head I picture their starting five on the Offensive Line. And then I imagine our starting Defensive line directly across from them.

Then I laugh.

[blacklistedbully]

I can't imagine the 3 things I mentioned in our game last year being anything less than a 19-point swing, with that being a conservative number. I just don't see them making up that big a number, even with the home-field swing.

Logically-speaking, one would think they'd need to come in this year markedly improved relative to us, but I think, if anything, we will be the ones more improved.

[Bubb Rubb]

If we played them the first game, I think we'd win. We're the better team. We have the better backs, the better o-line, the better d-line, the better QB, and the better LBs. They have a WR and safety advantage, and maybe a special teams advantage. We have a huge advantage on the sideline. If I had to give a line for the game if we were playing tomorrow, I would call it a pick 'em with them having homefield advantage. If the season goes as I expect it to, and State isn't victim to the injury bug, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see State as a 4-6 point favorite in that game. Rebels will scoff at this and have fun with it, but deep inside they know it and it scares the shit out of them.

[RossDawg82]

Home field probably had something to do with us winning the eggbowl, but I feel the difference in the game was us out playing them when it mattered most. That is the difference every year in the Egg bowl. They will have a lot of hype and momentum going into this game and honestly I think the game can go either way. I think whatever team wins the 4th quarter will win the game. I think with our depth at the key positions, we will be able to stay more fresh on the D and O lines which will give us a distinct advantage no matter whose house we play in. I don't see this game being a blow out, but because of our depth on the lines, I think we win in their house 38-31. We will win the 4th quarter 14-3.

[maroonmania]

Just remember that the last time the home team came into the Egg Bowl with a break even record or better and LOST was 16 years ago (1998) when State beat OM 28-6 in Oxford to go to the SEC Championship game where OM was 6-4 but their starting QB (Romaro Miller) was injured and unable to play. Lately the only time the home team has lost has been when they have had a terrible season and thrown in the towel. We can do it but winning in Oxford will not be an easy chore.

[blacklistedbully]

I am of the opinion that what happened more than 5 years ago has little, if any impact on this year's game. Certainly it has less to do than what we observed and experienced this past year. The more recent the game, the more relevant the circumstance and history.

Again, I ask, does anyone here not think we beat TSUN last year by 19 or more if DP played the whole game, they did not get away with 2 obvious t/o's, and they don't score the freak TD on the blocked punt? Their offense was ineffective versus our defense. Is there any reason to believe they will be significantly more capable versus our defense this year, HFA included? Is there any reason to believe our offense won't be more effective with a healthy DP running an offense tailor-made for him versus their defense that it was last year, HFA included?

I suspect there are many here placing far too much emphasis on HFA because of a long history of HFA seeming to matter. But will say again, I think the circumstances have changed enough to make anything other than very recent history a non-seqitur.

In fact, I believe the only reason we lost in Oxford two years ago is because Chris Wilson was an ineffective DC in over his head, who wasted our defensive talent with a shit scheme in that game. We thus gave confidence and hope to a team desperate to make a bowl, and stinging from the continued losses to Mullen, etc. They were able to parlay that into a 2nd half that snow-balled on us, negatively impacting both sides of the ball. They were clearly more inspired than we were, and we seemed to be waiting for the other shoe to come off in that game.

I don't see that happening with Geoff Collins at the helm, and with leaders like DP & BM.

[War Machine Dawg]

I will likely have one at FWTCT the week of the Egg Bowl. Wayyyyy too early to project that game. There will be injuries, surprise personnel moves, and a whole host of other factors to account for in that game. Personally, I think we're the better team for several reasons, but all that could change over the course of the season. It's just way too much to guessing to bother right now.

[Coach34]

crazy to even think about right now. Too many injuries and unknowns will occur before then

[scottycameron]

exactly coach, crazy to even think about it yet. Keep this in mind tho, we were a better team in 2012 and got rolled. Your 3 point and 6 point gambling line is garbage. I used to think the same way, for YEARS. It's a myth. It's an NFL thing that really isn't ever even followed. Nobody EVER sets a line then adds three because of home field advantage. It doesn't work that way. This ain't nintendo. But I do like the enthusiasm, and you are 100% correct about the complete bullshit touchdown on the blocked punt before half. That was insane and the luckiest play ever. A safety? Ok. Freakin TD? Unreal.

[Noxdog]

Yea, that's it. It's so hard to win on the road in this rivalry. Just think if the Egg bowl in Jackson and all those countless games against Bama, Lsu and Auburn on the road had been played at Then, Scott Field. Our overall record would be a whole lot better. Thanks, LT***

[blacklistedbully]

crazy to even think about right now. Too many injuries and unknowns will occur before then

Coach & WMD, I understand it's early, and much can change with injuries, etc. Yet, I do believe you two have made at least preliminary statements about this game likely being a toss-up or thereabouts. The point of this thread isn't to make a prediction on the outcome or the proper line, but rather to discuss, in general, why we should not, ASSUMING NO KEY INJURIES ON EITHER SIDE, feel pretty damned confident of a convincing victory based on this past year's performance and what we know each team is capable of bringing back, personnel-wise.

I'll say it again, I think if both sides had come in healthy and there had been no freak plays/missed t/o's, that we were easily a 19+ point better team, that we'll improve more than they will this year, so why should we allow HFA to trump that this year?

Scottycameron, whatever your opinion on the impact of HFA, every study I've seen has shown it to be a real thing, and to typically be worth around 3 points on average for the home-team, with some variation, both from pro-to-college, and from team-to-team. There have also been studies that have suggested some of this could be due to the influence a home-crowd might have on officials, particularly with close-calls.

All that said, there is empirical evidence that suggests 3-points is a good starting point, and that any variation will be relatively small, given even a 50% variation would make it just 4.5 points rather than 3. To be sure, you will not find a HFA that wipes out a 19+ point advantage, if that's what you think on-field performance suggested last year under the conditions suggested, and suggested as a more likely scenario than another game where TSUN gets away with 2 t/o's and gets gifted 4-7 points on a blocked punt, etc.

[bgover4]

I think we win in their house 38-31.

I agree that we win but with our D this year (and what i have seen from the O -line, although it is still a long way from the egg-bowl), I seriously doubt they find a way to score 31. As for the rest of the year, I am hoping its one of those years that our D scores more points than they give up to opposing teams.

[FISHDAWG]

I agree that we win but with our D this year (and what i have seen from the O -line, although it is still a long way from the egg-bowl), I seriously doubt they find a way to score 31. As for the rest of the year, I am hoping its one of those years that our D scores more points than they give up to opposing teams.

^^^ this ... if they couldn't score against our D last year, and now with that same D returning... where's the difference other than home field ? ... have they added some serious play makers to their offense over the off season ?