SEC Tournament results vs. NCAA Tournament results

[Quaoarsking]

There seems to be a common attitude that we're better off just mailing it in in Hoover, since teams that go deep in Hoover burn themselves out and don't do well in the NCAA Tournament.

I've compiled results for the last 10 years, comparing how many games a team played in Hoover to what place they finished in the NCAA Regionals the next week:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKlVzDuCYAALgOM.png
There doesn't look to be any correlation between games played in Hoover and Regional success.

However, SEC teams tend to be seeded highly (there's never been an SEC 4 seed), so maybe it's fairer to compare games played in Hoover to the difference between a team's seed and the place they finish in the Regional. If a 1 seed comes in 4th, they get a -3. If a 3 seed wins the Regional, they get a +2. If a team comes in the same place they're seeded as, they get 0. Etc.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKlWAvuCEAIAO8v.png
Still, there doesn't seem to be any validity to teams with more games in Hoover underachieving the next week.

[Quaoarsking]

Here (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKlYjLWCAAA-wRT.png:large) is the source file for those interested.

[Will James]

I don't buy into the "it wears you out" meme. I want to mail it in to give all our arms good work to make sure we are all ready for the regional. Also I don't want to risk injuries. Nobody should be making sliding catches into walls, I wouldn't steal any bases in Hoover etc.

[FlabLoser]

Whoa dude, there is absolutely a correlation. Your distribution of first place finishes against games played in Hoover clearly shows that teams who go 4 games win almost 10 tuned more 1st place regional finishes than teams that play all 5 or 6 games in Hoover.

Same for 2nd place regional finishers. Teams that play 3-4 in Hoover fare a lot better.

If there were no correlation, there would be no pattern. But here there is clearly a pattern.

[Duke Silver]

I think you try and win to keep the team sharp but as soon as you lose one game then don't try and win after that. The tourney gets too long from the losers' bracket.

[Quaoarsking]

There really isn't a pattern:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKlpDQLCcAASBvI.png:large

[Ghost of Hank Flick]

Thanks for the research, that is very interesting.

I like your 2nd table, I think there is more validity in that since its based on where you are really supposed to finish in the Regional. Based on that it does appear as though there isn't a ton of correlation, but there is some. It looks like 3 games is the optimal amount to play, and that would make since as all weekend series are 3 games.

[FlabLoser]

If Q plotted number of Hoover games on the x axis and number of first place regional finishes on the y axis, you would get something similar to this

http://curvebank.calstatela.edu/gaussdist/normal.jpg

And the hump would be centered on 4 games being played in Hoover.

Do the same the for 2nd place finishes in the regional and the hump would be centered on 3 or 4 games having been played in Hoover.

[Todd4State]

I don't buy into the "it wears you out" meme. I want to mail it in to give all our arms good work to make sure we are all ready for the regional. Also I don't want to risk injuries. Nobody should be making sliding catches into walls, I wouldn't steal any bases in Hoover etc.

I don't buy it either. If you make it to the championship game, you still have four days to rest before a regional.