Ross Mitchell

[Dallas_Dawg]

Guess the debate is settled on him. Will be even further come tourney time. A true bulldog

[maroonmania]

Yep, nothing like having a lucky pitcher on your staff.

[swdawg]

He was even lucky enough to get us out of the 5th inning, when he came in with 2 men on base and only 1 out. Lucky indeed.


Yep, nothing like having a lucky pitcher on your staff.

[Will James]

Please remain ignorant on what my point is. I woulda put him in to start the 6th. He got out of the 5th, great, he's not the best at that though. No slight against him but K's are statistically better in that spot. He is our best at long relief. But if trying to score a message board point on me makes you feel good....

[swdawg]

Hahahahahahaha...This post literally made me laugh out loud. YOU should never have anything to say about someone else trying to score message board points. Message board points ( and I guess twitter points) are what you live for. Please...

And yes, if this is scoring message board points on you, I ****ing love it.


Please remain ignorant on what my point is. I woulda put him in to start the 6th. He got out of the 5th, great, he's not the best at that though. No slight against him but K's are statistically better in that spot. He is our best at long relief. But if trying to score a message board point on me makes you feel good....

[Requiem For A Dawg]

How good could Ross Mitchell be if he didn't suck so bad?

[Will James]

6 for 13 in shutting down innings.

[swdawg]

What do you mean by this? Please explain.


6 for 13 in shutting down innings.

[Todd4State]

Please remain ignorant on what my point is. I woulda put him in to start the 6th. He got out of the 5th, great, he's not the best at that though. No slight against him but K's are statistically better in that spot. He is our best at long relief. But if trying to score a message board point on me makes you feel good....

And.....we're off.....

[Will James]

What do you mean by this? Please explain.

What Ive been saying the whole time. He needs to start the long relief innings but let someone that can K people come in for the starter when he is struggling. Ross has come into SEC games 13 times with runners on base and has allowed runs to score 7 of those times. That's not a good percentage. When he starts innings he's good because allowing balls in play doesn't hurt that much with nobody on but the majority of times we bring him in when the inning needs shutting down and 7 of 13 times he hasn't. Because when balls get put in play runners can advance unlike when batters are struck out. 13 runs have crossed the plate in SEC play alone that have been credited against another pitcher's ERA.

[CadaverDawg]

I actually agree with Will somewhat on this. What he's saying (in a strange way of saying it), is that Ross is a contact pitcher. You don't typically bring in a contact pitcher with RISP and less than 2 outs......you typically bring in a strike out guy to get you out of the inning, and THEN bring in a guy like Ross that gets tons of contact outs and eats innings.

I would have brought in Girodo or Bracewell to get out of the inning, and then Brought in Ross to START the next inning...but it worked out.

Everyone that is trying to make it out like Will is saying "Ross sucks", are doing it on purpose bc you know that's not what he's saying.

But whatever...I'm just trying to clear up what he's saying. Carry on.

[Will James]

I actually agree with Will somewhat on this. What he's saying (in a strange way of saying it), is that Ross is a contact pitcher. You don't typically bring in a contact pitcher with RISP and less than 2 outs......you typically bring in a strike out guy to get you out of the inning, and THEN bring in a guy like Ross that gets tons of contact outs and eats innings.

I would have brought in Girodo or Bracewell to get out of the inning, and then Brought in Ross to START the next inning...but it worked out.

Everyone that is trying to make it out like Will is saying "Ross sucks", are doing it on purpose bc you know that's not what he's saying.

But whatever...I'm just trying to clear up what he's saying. Carry on.

Yes. I thought we left the unthinking at 6P.

[swdawg]

Jesus...I didn't think you'd actually do it. But, there it is...aGAIN.

Everyone understands that Will...EVERYONE. If you would just post THAT on Elitedawgs for discussion, no one would have a problem with it. Maybe one or two, but I doubt it. But that is not the way you framed your argument...you adapted it to that after people started to attack YOU about it.

It's the fact that you have to go and proclaim on twitter that Ross has been lucky more than he's been good - on TWITTER - for God's sake. And then have a long argument about it. It's as if you have to prove yourself to be smarter and savvier than even our Coaches...and it doesn't even occur to you that it might be a problem and be taken as an attack on a guy who has been a really good, steady performer this year. Never mind that Ross might see the tweet.

Try some self awareness.


What Ive been saying the whole time. He needs to start the long relief innings but let someone that can K people come in for the starter when he is struggling. Ross has come into SEC games 13 times with runners on base and has allowed runs to score 7 of those times. That's not a good percentage. When he starts innings he's good because allowing balls in play doesn't hurt that much with nobody on but the majority of times we bring him in when the inning needs shutting down and 7 of 13 times he hasn't. Because when balls get put in play runners can advance unlike when batters are struck out. 13 runs have crossed the plate in SEC play alone that have been credited against another pitcher's ERA.

[swdawg]

Posts like this one are the reason everyone wants to slam you at every opportunity, Will. Self awareness.


Yes. I thought we left the unthinking at 6P.

[The Croom Diaries]

Everyone understands that Will...EVERYONE. If you would just post THAT on Elitedawgs for discussion, no one would have a problem with it. Maybe one or two, but I doubt it. But that is not the way you framed your argument...you adapted it to that after people started to attack YOU about it.



This. You have come up with this conclusion after everyone has run you down at every turn. Yet this weekend, against the best college baseball program in America, Ross pitches in all 3 games and does perfectly. He comes in twice with runners on and got us out of it without any runs scored.

The icing on top of the cake that is you being wrong, is that Ross Mitchell, the man you say isn't very capable of getting us out of jams, got us out of a 2 men on 1 out jam in the 5th inning - one he got your boy, Jacob Lindgren out of, which by the way you said he would go at least 5 innings but he couldn't do that yet again.

You've turned to every direction you can and virtually everyone has called you out on it. You picked a hell of a weekend to go nuts about this argument as Ross shat on your face. But of course you'll never admit to being wrong, just continue to parade BS stats and claim you're right. If you had stuck to one stance the entire time it might be admirable, but since you keep shifting it's really just pathetic.

[Will James]

I don't judge single occurrences based on the result Diary. "Ooooooooh look see he got out of it, golly Will you were wrong." I look at the year as a whole to judge who should do what, not after one series. Nobody except Cadaver has said anything about 6 for 13.

[FFF]

I don't judge single occurrences based on the result Diary. "Ooooooooh look see he got out of it, golly Will you were wrong." I look at the year as a whole to judge who should do what, not after one series. Nobody except Cadaver has said anything about 6 for 13.

K guys give up hits and walks, too... usually much harder hit balls than what Ross gives up... and you haven't mentioned that. What happens when you bring one of those guys in and they don't perform like your numbers say they are supposed to?

aGAIN, you keep dancing around the fact that Ross has consistently been good... just find some stat to keep claiming you are right. Ross got out of 2 key jams this weekend against one of the best hitting teams we have faced this year and you still have given zero credit to Ross at all for doing a good job and pitching 5.1 innings today while giving up one run, instead, you keep talking about "single" (actually twice this weekend) occurances... and this is why people don't give you or your opinion any credit or validity.

Keep tooting your own horn, though... maybe someone will care... I much imagine Butch, Cohen, or Ross don't.

[Will James]

K guys give up hits and walks, too... usually much harder hit balls than what Ross gives up... and you haven't mentioned that. What happens when you bring one of those guys in and they don't perform like your numbers say they are supposed to?

aGAIN, you keep dancing around the fact that Ross has consistently been good... just find some stat to keep claiming you are right. Ross got out of 2 key jams this weekend against one of the best hitting teams we have faced this year and you still have given zero credit to Ross at all for doing a good job and pitching 5.1 innings today while giving up one run, instead, you keep talking about "single" (actually twice this weekend) occurances... and this is why people don't give you or your opinion any credit or validity.

Keep tooting your own horn, though... maybe someone will care...


Uh I believe I've said he's our best long relief guy numerous times. "What happens when one of those K guys doesn't get it done" well going strictly on odds is what will get you the best results over an entire season. That's hat percentages are. Sometimes Holder will give up the run, sometimes Ross will get out of it. Going with the odds over a season will give you the best results. Just think of it like a casino. You COULD hit on 18 but most of the time you will be unsuccessful. Same concept.

[Homedawg]

I don't judge single occurrences based on the result Diary. "Ooooooooh look see he got out of it, golly Will you were wrong." I look at the year as a whole to judge who should do what, not after one series. Nobody except Cadaver has said anything about 6 for 13.
Will points out the 6-13 because he has determined behind his keyboard it's the only valid stat. Era? Worthless. Etc, etc. Babip Another key one the rest are worthless. Or so he says. I might be exaggerating some, ...........but not much.

[The Croom Diaries]

I don't judge single occurrences based on the result Diary. "Ooooooooh look see he got out of it, golly Will you were wrong." I look at the year as a whole to judge who should do what, not after one series. Nobody except Cadaver has said anything about 6 for 13.

Cadaver is agreeing the your argument as it currently sits. Everyone is so fed up with you because this has been your argument, in chronological order:

1. Ross Mitchell is lucky because his BABIP is the highest among our best pitchers
2. Ross will soon begin to fail because the law of averages of BABIP and SIERA say so.
3. Mitchell is overrated because people put an emphasis on stats that don't matter: Wins and ERA.
4. People are afraid to criticize baseball players unlike football and basketball players
5. Ross is good, he just shouldn't be brought in with runners on base.

I may have missed a sequence or two in there, y'all will have to let me know.

Since the basis of your argument is now 6 for 13 (which I think is actually 7 for 14 now) then why don't you break down all the relief pitchers so we can see who is the best in those situations and where Ross ranks among them?

What everyone except you sees is that Ross has done A TON to help this baseball team win games. Even if he gives up a run or two with the men he inherits, he generally goes on to pitch 1-6 innings of shutout baseball afterwards (which goes back to your original argument that he has been lucky yet he keeps putting up zeros). He is far more valuable than Girodo or Bradford on the mound - guys you've said you'd rather have in there.

I'm curious to see if you'll provide a breakdown of inherited runners scored among the entire bullpen to prove your current position. Although I'm sure if you're proven wrong there as well you'll shift to a new corner of this argument that seems to span space and time.

[sbcmortgageman]

Good lord people. We just won our 40th game and Ross is a great pitcher. If you don't understand that I cannot help you.

[Will James]

Guy I put a lot of stats out there. It's not all part of some grand argument. They mean different things. A few weeks ago he had a low BABIP when I brought that up.

A different point is the one about wins and ERA. That goes for all pitchers.

A different stat is SIERA. That looks at just pitcher vs batter results. Not dependent on who is on base, fielders, etc.

[sbcmortgageman]

I understand that. It's just that every time I get on a message board folks are wanting to argue over who's the most knowledgable. We just won our 40th game and should host a regional. It's time for some folks to be positive.

[Coach34]

How good could Ross Mitchell be if he didn't suck so bad?

who said Ross Mitchell sux? Will James didnt....

[Coach34]

Will points out the 6-13 .

Well, he actually has a very valid point there. More than 50% of the time- Mitchell allowed inherited runners to score. For a reliever, that's not good. It doesnt make a mother-**** what his ERA is. You bring relievers in to shut the door- not just give up inherited runs.

Holder's run in Game 2 didnt hurt his ERA either- but it was a very damn important inherited runner we needed to keep from scoring. That could have been a season changing run had we lost today also

[Will James]

I'm curious to see if you'll provide a breakdown of inherited runners scored among the entire bullpen to prove your current position.

These numbers are just for innings where they have entered, not innings they have started.

Ross. 14 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.93. Inherited runners: 29. Inherited runners scored:13. Inherited % score. 45%

Girodo. 12 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.75. Inherited runners: 17. Inherited runners scored: 5. Inherited % score: 29%

Holder. 11 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.55. Inherited runners: 16. Inherited runners scored: 2. Inherited % score: 13%.

Like Coach says, it doesn't make a mother **** what any relief pitcher's ERA is. That's not their job.

ETA: In these situations Ross records an out in 74% of plate appearances. Girodo only 61%. But a lot more of Girodo's are K's which limits his runners from advancing/scoring.

[CadaverDawg]

Wow. Impressed with those stats. That is some interesting data, and makes me feel even better about wondering why we went with Ross with RISP instead of Girodo. Interesting. And good proof of your argument.

Me thinks if you would learn to present your data in a more humble and more easily understood way....you would be a great poster in their eyes.

I have learned to sift through the arrogance and self righteousness and see the points you are attempting to make....so I think you bring up great points and good info, and I actually agree with you on a majority of what you post. If everyone else would just quit worrying about the "look at me" parts of your posts, and focus on the facts, they would enjoy having you around.

One thing's for sure, Will wants MSU success as much or more than anyone else on this board. I can appreciate that.

[Todd4State]

Wow. Impressed with those stats. That is some interesting data, and makes me feel even better about wondering why we went with Ross with RISP instead of Girodo. Interesting. And good proof of your argument.

Me thinks if you would learn to present your data in a more humble and more easily understood way....you would be a great poster in their eyes.

I have learned to sift through the arrogance and self righteousness and see the points you are attempting to make....so I think you bring up great points and good info, and I actually agree with you on a majority of what you post. If everyone else would just quit worrying about the "look at me" parts of your posts, and focus on the facts, they would enjoy having you around.

One thing's for sure, Will wants MSU success as much or more than anyone else on this board. I can appreciate that.

It's important to pick the right stat too. If your point is that a pitcher allows a lot of inherited runners to score, it's a lot better and more relevant to use inherited runners and a stat called holds which is a cousin of saves rather than BABIP and SIERA.

[CadaverDawg]

It's important to pick the right stat too. If your point is that a pitcher allows a lot of inherited runners to score, it's a lot better and more relevant to use inherited runners and a stat called holds which is a cousin of saves rather than BABIP and SIERA.

Very true. Sometimes a mere explanation can be more effective than a bunch of stats anyway. At least at first. And then if others want to argue it, THEN pull out your stats. But again, make sure they are the right stats.

[Will James]

It's important to pick the right stat too. If your point is that a pitcher allows a lot of inherited runners to score, it's a lot better and more relevant to use inherited runners and a stat called holds which is a cousin of saves rather than BABIP and SIERA.

BABIP and SIERA were different posts than this one. They weren't related points.

[Todd4State]

BABIP and SIERA were different posts than this one. They weren't related points.

I'm trying to help you out here.

[The Croom Diaries]

These numbers are just for innings where they have entered, not innings they have started.

Ross. 14 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.93. Inherited runners: 29. Inherited runners scored:13. Inherited % score. 45%

Girodo. 12 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.75. Inherited runners: 17. Inherited runners scored: 5. Inherited % score: 29%

Holder. 11 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.55. Inherited runners: 16. Inherited runners scored: 2. Inherited % score: 13%.

Like Coach says, it doesn't make a mother **** what any relief pitcher's ERA is. That's not their job.

ETA: In these situations Ross records an out in 74% of plate appearances. Girodo only 61%. But a lot more of Girodo's are K's which limits his runners from advancing/scoring.

There you go. You were correct that Ross Mitchell is not the best option out of the pen with runners on base.

You and Coach are wrong about a reliever's ERA not meaning anything, though. Mitchell's absolutely does because he is a long reliever who goes 3-6 innings all the time. Saying the amount of runs he gives up doesn't matter is stupid. I'm sure if you took only the innings he started himself his ERA would go from about 1.2 to 1.4. I know you don't believe in ERA, but that's beside the point. A guy like Mitchell's ERA does matter - it shows his value a lot more than a guy like Girodo who comes in for a couple of outs....if you want to dismiss his ERA that is fine.

P.S. Everyone knows this entire Ross Mitchell debate was interconnected. You changed your stance to derive at a point that would be accepted. You won't admit that since you won't admit to being wrong, but everyone knows it true - if I'm wrong someone call me out.

Conclusion: Ross Mitchell is an excellent (not lucky) pitcher who should only be brought in to start innings because he allows too many inherited runners to score.

[Will James]

You and Coach are wrong about a reliever's ERA not meaning anything, though.

There is a reason the 3 highest ERA's of qualified pitchers in SEC play are the starters.

There is a reason that the 6 relief pitchers with the most appearances during the season all have lower ERA's than our starters.

That's not the only reason I dismiss ERA though.

[Coach34]

You and Coach are wrong about a reliever's ERA not meaning anything, though.


Let me say it this way so we can all agree- ERA can be extremely misleading and never tells the entire story....example?

Holder ERA was over 3.00 earlier this year because of one bad outing in long relief that caused it to take a big climb. His ERA at that time was in no way indicative of the truly special closer he is.

I think you guys now see Will's point better, and that he is indeed correct- and he understands he can come off looking like a dick

[Will James]

I'm sure if you took only the innings he started himself his ERA would go from about 1.2 to 1.4.

These numbers for Ross, Chad, Holder, and BB are coming soon

[The Croom Diaries]

ERA can be extremely misleading and never tells the entire story.

I wholeheartedly agree with that statement with regards to relief pitchers, however not all relief pitchers are the same. Ross is basically in a category by himself on this team and that's the % of his innings logged where he has started and completed them. Hell, he has more innings than everyone on the team except for Graveman and Pollorena. He's pitched 15 more innings than Lindgren. If he was entering with 2 outs in the 7th and leaving with 1 out in the 8th it would be a lot different, but most of the time he's coming in during the 3rd or 4th and staying until the 7th or 8th, or even finishing the game.

[Dallas_Dawg]

It's fun getting y'all all worked up.

[Will James]

I wholeheartedly agree with that statement with regards to relief pitchers, however not all relief pitchers are the same. Ross is basically in a category by himself on this team and that's the % of his innings logged where he has started and completed them. Hell, he has more innings than everyone on the team except for Graveman and Pollorena. He's pitched 15 more innings than Lindgren. If he was entering with 2 outs in the 7th and leaving with 1 out in the 8th it would be a lot different, but most of the time he's coming in during the 3rd or 4th and staying until the 7th or 8th, or even finishing the game.

SEC Only Numbers. These are just the innings started by each pitcher.

Mitchell, R... 25.1 IP.. 7 ER.. 2.51 ERA.

Bracewell... 15.2 IP... 2 ER... 1.18 ERA.

Holder....... 10 IP... 1 ER...... 0.90 ERA.

Girodo....... 9.1 IP... 2 ER..... 1.98 ERA.

[Will James]

but most of the time he's coming in during the 3rd or 4th and staying until the 7th or 8th, or even finishing the game.

This is another meme. In his 15 SEC appearances he's only gone more than 3 innings 3 times.

This is why you have to look at the stats, everyone remembers the few times he's finished out long relief performances and that skews the overall body of work. This happens in all areas of sports. Like the Renfroe thing earlier in the year about RISP. At the point it was brought up the meme was that he hadnt been very good when in reality he was hitting .500 and had an OBP over .700. Now granted he's fallen off of that lately but at the time it was a meme based on feeling not on fact.

[The Croom Diaries]

SEC Only Numbers. These are just the innings started by each pitcher.

Mitchell, R... 25.1 IP.. 7 ER.. 2.51 ERA.

Bracewell... 15.2 IP... 2 ER... 1.18 ERA.

Holder....... 10 IP... 1 ER...... 0.90 ERA.

Girodo....... 9.1 IP... 2 ER..... 1.98 ERA.

Here are the numbers when these 4 start AND finish an inning (because as you say the reliever coming in behind him should be able to shut the door) in SEC play-

Mitchell.....24 IP....4 ER.....1.50 ERA

Bracewell....14 IP....0 ER.....0.00 ERA

Girodo.....7 IP.....0 ER.....0.00 ERA

Holder.....18 IP....1 ER....0.50 ERA

So, all of these pitchers are very good when starting and finishing their own innings. And If you take out that 3-run homer Mitchell gave up vs. Alabama his ERA is 0.39 (I say that because one bad inning is inflating it to a massive 1.50).

[Will James]

Yeah, but limiting it to just innings that you start and finish really has no meaning whatsoever.

All of this is why I like to just look at stats that measure hitter vs pitcher.

[The Croom Diaries]

This is another meme. In his 15 SEC appearances he's only gone more than 3 innings 3 times.



Clever.

He has gone AT LEAST 3.0 innings 5 times in SEC play. If you count the Govorner's Cup ((against a SEC team (RPI #18) where he went 6)) it's 6 in 16. He also went 6 against Memphis (RPI #96), 4.2 vs. Austin Peay (RPI #29), 4.0 vs. Southern Miss, 3.0 vs. Central ARK (RPI #81), 3.0 vs. St. Joe's, 6.0 vs. Samford,

He has gone at least 2.0 innings another 3 times in SEC play. So out of 15 SEC appearances, he has gone at least 2 innings 8 times. But look at those non-conference games. 32.2 IP over the course of 7 games and 4 of them were vs. top 100 teams, 2 of them vs. top 50 teams....and we won 6 of those 7 (UCA).

[The Croom Diaries]

Yeah, but limiting it to just innings that you start and finish really has no meaning whatsoever.



Doesn't it eliminate the "luck" factor? If you are starting and finishing your own inning, then there is not another pitcher to inherit your runners and let them score.

To this point, pitcher A may leave 2 on with 2 out in Game 1 and pitcher C comes in and allows both of them to score. Then in Game 2 pitcher B leaves 2 on with 2 out and the same pitcher C comes in and gets the out before either run scores.

[Will James]

You could MAYBE look at starting pitchers innings started and finished but even then I think it would be worthless. Any relief pitcher allowed to start and finish an inning will have limited earned runs. If a RP gets in any trouble they are replaced. Relief innings started AND finished yields nothing of value.

[The Croom Diaries]

You could MAYBE look at starting pitchers innings started and finished but even then I think it would be worthless. Any relief pitcher allowed to start and finish an inning will have limited earned runs. If a RP gets in any trouble they are replaced. Relief innings started AND finished yields nothing of value.

Sure it does. My point is that Ross is an innings eater and he puts up a bunch of zeros on the scoreboard. Girodo's started and finished innings don't have much value because he has 7 of them, but Mitchell has 24 plus all the non-conference games.

Mitchell typically comes in when the starter doesn't have it and he eats through the middle innings keeping the other team down allowing our offense a chance to come back or extend the lead in the game. That's his value. With our starting pitching which half the time struggles to get past the 4th or 5th inning, we need a guy to come in and give up 3 or 4, maybe more innings if we want a chance to win. Ross not only fills that role, but he does so without allowing hardly any runs....most of the time none.

I see your point about how the head coach will just lift a relief pitcher if he's in trouble or tiring so obviously if he finished an inning then he is doing well, but that also speaks to my point in that Ross is almost always doing well so Cohen doesn't have to take him out, he just keeps going and going and going..

[Todd4State]

Let me say it this way so we can all agree- ERA can be extremely misleading and never tells the entire story....example?

Holder ERA was over 3.00 earlier this year because of one bad outing in long relief that caused it to take a big climb. His ERA at that time was in no way indicative of the truly special closer he is.

I think you guys now see Will's point better, and that he is indeed correct- and he understands he can come off looking like a dick

Yes, ERA can be misleading. That's why even before Bill James was even born people were judging players with several stats grouped together. Traditionally it was W/L record, K/BB ratio and ERA and if it's a reliever it was saves. ERA is not and never was meant to be an all-encompassing stat. And I don't know anyone that judges a pitcher simply on ERA alone. Over the years, other stats have come along like WHIP and things like that.

I could say that Dave Kingman should have won the MVP in 1982 because he hit 37 home runs which lead the league. What I didn't tell you is he also led the league in strike outs and hit .204 on the year.

[Todd4State]

The bottom line is if we are truly trying to determine the value of a player, the best thing to use is WAR. You wouldn't use BABIP or ERA.

[Drugdog]

And the referee is starting his count: 1..... 2....... 3...... And the winner is NOT Will. Ding ding ding.
This was a loser leave the board for a week. Bye WJ.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

again, why not just start mitchell. He comes in after our starter has shit the bed and usually throws 5 innings or scoreless ball. Just start him, bring girardo or bracewell in for a couple of innings and then holder. Automatic W. Let Pollo take ross' role as a middle reliever.

hell, ross could throw 6 on friday and come back and give you 2 or 3 on sunday.

[CadaverDawg]

again, why not just start mitchell. He comes in after our starter has shit the bed and usually throws 5 innings or scoreless ball. Just start him, bring girardo or bracewell in for a couple of innings and then holder. Automatic W. Let Pollo take ross' role as a middle reliever.

hell, ross could throw 6 on friday and come back and give you 2 or 3 on sunday.

Because Ross is a "change of pace" guy. He would probably not be nearly as effective if he didn't follow a guy that brought it 90 mph or better. It's a lot easier to key in on a 82 mph fastball when you haven't seen anything harder that same day.

[The Croom Diaries]

The bottom line is if we are truly trying to determine the value of a player, the best thing to use is WAR. You wouldn't use BABIP or ERA.

We don't need to use any stat at all. We can just use our eyes. They say Ross is a great pitcher, one of the most valuable players on the team. He is a winner. End of story.

[Todd4State]

Because Ross is a "change of pace" guy. He would probably not be nearly as effective if he didn't follow a guy that brought it 90 mph or better. It's a lot easier to key in on a 82 mph fastball when you haven't seen anything harder that same day.

It can work both ways. See Jamie Moyer.

[CadaverDawg]

It can work both ways. See Jamie Moyer.

Not saying it can't...but I don't want to experiment with it for the first time in the post season, when we KNOW it works the way we've been using him.

[Will James]

And the referee is starting his count: 1..... 2....... 3...... And the winner is NOT Will. Ding ding ding.
This was a loser leave the board for a week. Bye WJ.

Lulz I've used nothing but statistical facts. It's logically impossible for me to be wrong or "the loser"

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Lulz I've used nothing but statistical facts. It's logically impossible for me to be wrong or "the loser"

statistically, renfroe is our best hitter with risp. I doubt a single person on this board wants him batting with the game on the line though. Stats are fun but dont mean much. Dead horse beaten.

[CadaverDawg]

statistically, renfroe is our best hitter with risp. I doubt a single person on this board wants him batting with the game on the line though. Stats are fun but dont mean much. Dead horse beaten.

Not to be an ass, but I DO want Renfroe up with the game on the line.

[Will James]

Not to be an ass, but I DO want Renfroe up with the game on the line.

+1

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Not to be an ass, but I DO want Renfroe up with the game on the line.

that is fine. I take Adam Frazier with the game on the line. All day, every day. Renfroe hasnt proven he can be clutch at all. Ever.

[CadaverDawg]

that is fine. I take Adam Frazier with the game on the line. All day, every day. Renfroe hasnt proven he can be clutch at all. Ever.

"at all. Ever." ? May want to rethink that.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

"at all. Ever." ? May want to rethink that.

he isnt. Since I brought it up a few weeks ago and took a ton of shit, I believe he is about 1 for 16 with RISP since then. He also only gets hits when it doesnt count. Why does he hit solo HRs in the 9th down 6 or up 4 all the time? Maybe it is a coincidence. He has had PLENTY of opportunity to prove me wrong the past month and hasnt. Without frazier, we get swept by OM and lose 2 of 3 to USC. Frazier is our leader.

[CadaverDawg]

he isnt. Since I brought it up a few weeks ago and took a ton of shit, I believe he is about 1 for 16 with RISP since then. He also only gets hits when it doesnt count. Why does he hit solo HRs in the 9th down 6 or up 4 all the time? Maybe it is a coincidence. He has had PLENTY of opportunity to prove me wrong the past month and hasnt. Without frazier, we get swept by OM and lose 2 of 3 to USC. Frazier is our leader.

Wow, what a short term memory you have. You seem to forget the first 2/3's of the season when Frazier was struggling but Hunter was mashing. I know you have a problem with WJ, but saying stuff like "he only gets hits when it doesn't count", is just dumb as shit.

I think you are letting your current frustration with Renfroe cloud your judgement on how good he has been this season. You can't ignore what he's done for us the previous 45 games just because he has struggled in the last 11

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

that isnt it. I brought it up 2 weeks ago and since then, people have been paying attention to it. Basically, it is something I noticed all year long. When I brought it to light, it has been a constant on the board since. Renfroe has been the same all year.

We dont really have anyone clutch. Frazier is our best, as of late. Bottom line, not just past 2 weeks, when game is on line, RISP with the game within a run or 2, renfroe has been shit. It isnt a 2 week phenomenom.

Edit - Do you think randomly, 2 weeks ago, I decided to just pick on our best player and say he wasnt clutch? Guy leading SEC in hrs and BA and slugging? No. It was something I noticed (by watching every single game we have played and not reading stat sheets) and when I brought it to light, people have been paying attention to it. That is it and all. Hunter is our best player. Period. He isnt a guy I want up there with the game on the line though.

[CadaverDawg]

that isnt it. I brought it up 2 weeks ago and since then, people have been paying attention to it. Basically, it is something I noticed all year long. When I brought it to light, it has been a constant on the board since. Renfroe has been the same all year.

We dont really have anyone clutch. Frazier is our best, as of late. Bottom line, not just past 2 weeks, when game is on line, RISP with the game within a run or 2, renfroe has been shit. It isnt a 2 week phenomenom.

Edit - Do you think randomly, 2 weeks ago, I decided to just pick on our best player and say he wasnt clutch? Guy leading SEC in hrs and BA and slugging? No. It was something I noticed (by watching every single game we have played and not reading stat sheets) and when I brought it to light, people have been paying attention to it. That is it and all. Hunter is our best player. Period. He isnt a guy I want up there with the game on the line though.

Don't pull a muscle patting yourself on the back....msstate7, WJ, and myself had had the same conversation about Hunter in a game thread before you ever brought it up.

And secondly, You're wrong about him not being clutch ALL Year. We would have been in trouble without Hunter. Basically, you have gone full tard because WJ has made you so mad. If you think Hunter has been the same all year as he has lately, then you havent paid attention.

And another thing.....We ALL watch all of the games so quit acting like you watch more baseball than anybody that reads the board.

[CadaverDawg]

that isnt it. I brought it up 2 weeks ago and since then, people have been paying attention to it. Basically, it is something I noticed all year long. When I brought it to light, it has been a constant on the board since. Renfroe has been the same all year.

We dont really have anyone clutch. Frazier is our best, as of late. Bottom line, not just past 2 weeks, when game is on line, RISP with the game within a run or 2, renfroe has been shit. It isnt a 2 week phenomenom.

Edit - Do you think randomly, 2 weeks ago, I decided to just pick on our best player and say he wasnt clutch? Guy leading SEC in hrs and BA and slugging? No. It was something I noticed (by watching every single game we have played and not reading stat sheets) and when I brought it to light, people have been paying attention to it. That is it and all. Hunter is our best player. Period. He isnt a guy I want up there with the game on the line though.

By the way, explain how Renfroe could be "shit" all year with RISP, yet he leads the team in RBI's? How does that happen if you're "shit"

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Id imagine that if what I said was wrong, WJ would have a chart by now. It has been 2 weeks? Me pat myself on the back? Please.

Put up some sort of chart that with RISP and the game within 1 run or 2 runs or whatever, who is our best hitter. If Im wrong, Ill gladly admit it. However, I have watched, EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR. All I am saying is when it counts, Hunter hasnt been clutch. I brought it up 2 weeks ago and it has spun out of control a little. Hunter is still our best player, no doubt.

[CadaverDawg]

Again, I'm not saying he's been great with RISP...but "shit"? Think about how stupid that sounds when talking about our RBI leader.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

GODDAMIT. DROP THE RISP.

That isnt what I have ever said. I admitted that he leads the team in HR and RISP and all that shit. Im just saying, when it matters, he isnt there. Like, he is clutch when we are creaming someone or down 5 runs or when nobody is on and down 6. When it is a 1 run game and RISP, he has shit the bed all year. Again, he can go 9-10 while we are up or down 5 with RISP and then go 1-10 like he has the past weekend (when it is close and matters. 1 run/2 run game with RISP) and his avg is still great. That doesnt make him clutch.

Maybe WJ can come up with a clutch formula.

[CadaverDawg]

Id imagine that if what I said was wrong, WJ would have a chart by now. It has been 2 weeks? Me pat myself on the back? Please.

Put up some sort of chart that with RISP and the game within 1 run or 2 runs or whatever, who is our best hitter. If Im wrong, Ill gladly admit it. However, I have watched, EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR. All I am saying is when it counts, Hunter hasnt been clutch. I brought it up 2 weeks ago and it has spun out of control a little. Hunter is still our best player, no doubt.

Again....we've all watched EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR, so quit using that like it means something

[CadaverDawg]

And again...You're WRONG by saying "all year". Thats my issue, and Im right

[Will James]

Why don't you provide us with Renfroes numbers after the 7th inning in 3 runs or less margin games. We here at ED like to have arguments backed up with facts.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

And again...You're WRONG by saying "all year". Thats my issue, and Im right

where is your chart saying Im wrong? Ill gladly admit it if I am.

[CadaverDawg]

Why don't you provide us with Renfroes numbers after the 7th inning in 3 runs or less margin games. We here at ED like to have arguments backed up with facts.

He doesn't need stats or facts because HE WATCHED EVERY SINGLE GAME!

[Todd4State]

GODDAMIT. DROP THE RISP.

That isnt what I have ever said. I admitted that he leads the team in HR and RISP and all that shit. Im just saying, when it matters, he isnt there. Like, he is clutch when we are creaming someone or down 5 runs or when nobody is on and down 6. When it is a 1 run game and RISP, he has shit the bed all year. Again, he can go 9-10 while we are up or down 5 with RISP and then go 1-10 like he has the past weekend (when it is close and matters. 1 run/2 run game with RISP) and his avg is still great. That doesnt make him clutch.

Maybe WJ can come up with a clutch formula.

The thing about Hunter is while he has obviously produced, none of his hits are particularly memorable. I don't think you can measure memorable with a stat because that is something that is in the eye of the beholder and is totally subjective. Sort of like Steve Gendron had a lot of hits, but I honestly don't remember any of them.

Are David Freese, Kirk Gibson, and Carlton Fisk the most clutch players in MLB history? Probably not statistically if you analyze it, but they did things in the clutch that were memorable in big moments.

As far as Hunter, I think a lot of people remember him coming up with the bases loaded against LSU when we were tied and striking out and then going on to lose the game, and now in crunch time he is struggling in general.

Adam Frazier on the other hand had a GREAT at bat in the Governor's Cup that drove in the eventual winning runs despite just missing getting a hit twice in a row. A lot of our fans were there and remember that. Also, again recently against Ole Miss, he had the game winning hit to complete a huge comeback from being down 6-0 and then this weekend he again had the go ahead hit against South Carolina that helped complete a big comeback win.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Why don't you provide us with Renfroes numbers after the 7th inning in 3 runs or less margin games. We here at ED like to have arguments backed up with facts.

Im not a chart guy. Why dont YOU do it. You have a chart for our leadoff hitter drinking a diet coke on a tuesday, Im sure you can find time. Why stop it at 7 innings? Why not all innings? Put your chart together. If Im wrong, I will GLADLY admit it.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

I have cadaver and now youre just being a little bitch. WJ mfin Chart james would have charted it if I was wrong....he charts every GD stat there is. why not this one?

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

And again...You're WRONG by saying "all year". Thats my issue, and Im right

you know what, this is stupid. I'll actually take the time to put together the numbers tomorrow or tuesday. What is the criteria. RISP with the game within 1 run? 2 runs? Tying run (renfroe) at the plate? What is the criteria?

[Will James]

Im not a chart guy. Why dont YOU do it. You have a chart for our leadoff hitter drinking a diet coke on a tuesday, Im sure you can find time. Why stop it at 7 innings? Why not all innings? Put your chart together. If Im wrong, I will GLADLY admit it.

Its your point not mine. Its not up to me to prove you wrong. You find the info backing up YOUR argument or me and Cadaver will continue to laugh at your opinion of not wanting Renfroe to hit in that situation.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Its your point not mine. Its not up to me to prove you wrong. You find the info backing up YOUR argument or me and Cadaver will continue to laugh at your opinion of not wanting Renfroe to hit in that situation.

ok. Let me know the criteria.

And I will continue to watch Renfroe Strike out with the game on the line, like he has all season. Hey, but if he goes 6 for 6 with RISP versus MVSU and his average is .375, it doesnt matter, right?

[CadaverDawg]

I have cadaver and now youre just being a little bitch. WJ mfin Chart james would have charted it if I was wrong....he charts every GD stat there is. why not this one?

Ennis, personal attacks are a sign of defeat, and name calling is both childish AND against the ED rules as a bannable offense.

Quit being so damn sensitive. If you wouldn't use words like "all year", "never", and "always", your points could be taken seriously. One thing about facts and stats....they take emotion like yours out of the equation

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Ennis, personal attacks are a sign of defeat, and name calling is both childish AND against the ED rules as a bannable offense.

Quit being so damn sensitive. If you wouldn't use words like "all year", "never", and "always", your points could be taken seriously. One thing about facts and stats....they take emotion like yours out of the equation

fair enough, I wont be banned. I will chart it tomorrow. It will be a slow day. All I have to do is pack for HOover.

So what is the criteria? I like the 1 or 2 run situation with RISP.......but Ill gladly take whatever you guys say.

[Will James]

you know what, this is stupid. I'll actually take the time to put together the numbers tomorrow or tuesday. What is the criteria. RISP with the game within 1 run? 2 runs? Tying run (renfroe) at the plate? What is the criteria?

Hell you tell us what criteria you want. And you have to compare that to someone else. Are you using all year or just SEC? If there are only like 4-6 plate appearances regarding your criteria will it really be meaningful? Prolly not. I make sure to get a large enough sample size criteria. I roast small sample sizes.

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Ill put together a bunch of scnenario stats and you just pick. Obv, 4-6 isnt a large criteria.

[Will James]

Ill put together a bunch of scnenario stats and you just pick. Obv, 4-6 isnt a large criteria.

Just what exactly are you trying to prove? Decide that and look it up

[CadaverDawg]

Just what exactly are you trying to prove? Decide that and look it up

That's kind of what I was wondering too. What are you trying to prove, Ennis?

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

That's kind of what I was wondering too. What are you trying to prove, Ennis?

I guess there is no certain thing. My thing was always clutch, or when it counted. How do you measure that. Im asking. It cant be RISP, just like ERA cant be a total measure. That is why I was thinking RISP, with the game tied, 1 run or 2 runs or tying run at the plate (renfroe)???

[State82]

Well, think about this, too. Early inning rbi's, and enough of them, will keep you from even being in a clutch situation in the latter stages of a game. So, which is more important, getting hits with RISP in the early innings to make a game more "comfortable" or getting hits with RISP in the 8th/9th/10th inning when the game is tied or we are down a run or two? And what would be the difference between the two scenarios? I don't see how this argument can be realistically settled. But, I will look forward to the data regardless. Good night, gentlemen.

[Sandman14]

There seems to be a lot of trash in this thread, but I'll add that Ross Mitchell's effectiveness is in the first time the lineup turns over. You don't want him out there facing guys for the 2nd time, generally speaking. And that's Cohen's view as well, which is the correct view. You want him to get you 6 or 9 outs max.

As for Renfroe, you guys should lay off. It's obvious he's our best hitter, and it's also obvious he's in a slump. He's had big hits before, and hopefully he will catch fire here in the post-season. Right now would I want him up in the most clutch situation? No. I'd want Frazier...then we have guys like Pyrtle and even Rea who have been clutch. CT is rippin now. But basically Renfroe is up there and he just needs to get out of this funk. He's a top 15 major league draft pick. You can point out he's been struggling, but who cares? It's obvious. Here's another obvious point: If he doesn't start coming around, we have zero shot at Omaha.

[Will James]

another obvious point: If he doesn't start coming around, we have zero shot at Omaha.

You look at baseball like football. It's not like a quarterback going down. We just beat a damn good SC team essentially without Renfroe. Our percentage of making it to Omaha without him on the team is probably 1% lower.

WAR is a cumulative stat. Over 162 the MLB league leaders are around 6-9. Statistically it's probably impossible to rack up 1 WAR in a regional or super. So statistically and percentage wise, because that's what it's about, we have essentially the same odds of making Omaha whether he even plays or not.

[Sandman14]

Our percentage of making it to Omaha without him on the team is probably 1% lower.

Do you really believe this?

[Sandman14]

Does WAR take into account that Renfro is batting like .370 with 15 bombs to lead the league and is our best chance to score on the team from 1st or 2nd to home (base running), that he's got the best hose in the nation from right field, that he so fast he can play center very well, and that he gets walked intentionally an incredible amount of time? It's cumulative, right?

[Will James]

Do you really believe this?

Yes. I'm not talking oddsmakers like PTI. I'm talking actual percentages.

[Sandman14]

WAR in talking about Renfroe giving us a 1% better chance to go to Omaha.. That's good stuff.

Memo to you guys, don't try and get so money ball that you start saying things that don't make sense.

[Sandman14]

Will that is hilarious. I've been watching your shenanigans over on 6 pack for awhile. Good stuff with the bunting debate. I actually agree with you to a limited extent, although I like small ball when we need it or if we think we can get an edge in a particular spot by applying pressure. But this is actually just ridiculous. I want to make sure I'm clear. you actually believe that if renfroe were to get hurt and out for the season, our team would have a 1% less chance of making Omaha? That is asinine.

[Will James]

Just as an opinion, I feel that we have a 60% chance of winning a Host regional. I have no idea what the actual number is but with 4 teams competing at various skill levels I'll just say 60%.

Going to a National Seed's house for a Super Regional, love our team but I'm saying 30%. Look at Vandy Ark UK OM on the road. So taking 30% of 60... Means I feel that currently we have an 18% chance of going to Omaha.

Do I think Renfroe, a single position player, is worth more than one whole percentage point to make me change off of 18%? No. In fact, I'd say losing Pollo Graveman Lindgren or Holder would be statistically more costly than losing Renfroe.