Houston Astros being shady?

[Dawg61]

Brady Aiken is getting fu@ked over by the Astros. Their doctor has flagged the #1 overall pick for having an "abnormality" with his elbow ligament. So the Astros are publicly stating it and have reduced their offer to him from $6.5 MM to $3.16 MM. If he doesn't sign with them he is not going to get selected #1 overall ever again most likely and could fall pretty far with this report of an "abnormality". He's only 17 years old.

Brady Aiken's advisor, Casey Close, criticized both the Astros and MLB for the way the team has handled negotiations with the 2014 No. 1 overall pick.
The Astros are said to be using a medical concern, specifically about an abnormality with Aiken's elbow ligament, to leverage him into accepting a lower bonus. This would enable them two of their other draft picks. The two sides initially agreed to a $6.5 million bonus, but their revised offer now sits at $3,168,840, the minimum amount required to ensure that they would receive the No. 2 pick in 2015 as compensation if they fail to sign Aiken. "We are extremely disappointed that Major League Baseball is allowing the Astros to conduct business in this manner with a complete disregard for the rules governing the draft and the 29 other clubs who have followed those same rules," said Close. There's a lot of work to do in order to get a deal in place before Friday's deadline

[Irondawg]

The public disclosure is probably not endearing but if they have true medical concerns that they should be leery about dropping $6M on him. I have to believe there is some validity to it if they had a pre-draft deal done.

[FISHDAWG]

I can't remember who it was but it seemed like that was what the Mets did with one of their guys who still signed with them but for a much lower deal ... at least this guy can still go to college, show what he's got and entertain other options later on with different teams ... but to answer your question - yeah, it sounds like they are doing it intentionally by publicly announcing something like this

ETA - reminds me of the NFL team that intentionally leaked it that they were talking to Bo Jackson when he still had eligibility remaining in college in an effort to force him into the draft ... pissed Bo off and he refused to play for them and stated the reason

[War Machine Dawg]

I can't remember who it was but it seemed like that was what the Mets did with one of their guys who still signed with them but for a much lower deal ... at least this guy can still go to college, show what he's got and entertain other options later on with different teams ... but to answer your question - yeah, it sounds like they are doing it intentionally by publicly announcing something like this

ETA - reminds me of the NFL team that intentionally leaked it that they were talking to Bo Jackson when he still had eligibility remaining in college in an effort to force him into the draft ... pissed Bo off and he refused to play for them and stated the reason

Tampa Bay. Swore he'd never play a down for them and never did.

[Todd4State]

This happens more times than is known about. I'm not going to say it's common or is the norm, but it happens.

MLB does everything that they can to drive the cost down.

[Irondawg]

And I never really understood the huge bonuses for MLB guys anyway considering they almost never jump directly the majors which is the difference between the other big sports. In the NFL and NBA you draft a guy in the 1st round expecting some form of immediate or near immediate contribution. For most MLB draftees, you need to wait at least 3 years. I'm really surprised the players union (and yes the current system is better than the old system) doesn't negotiate for higher base pays and less huge signing bonsues for early draftees.

[Todd4State]

And I never really understood the huge bonuses for MLB guys anyway considering they almost never jump directly the majors which is the difference between the other big sports. In the NFL and NBA you draft a guy in the 1st round expecting some form of immediate or near immediate contribution. For most MLB draftees, you need to wait at least 3 years. I'm really surprised the players union (and yes the current system is better than the old system) doesn't negotiate for higher base pays and less huge signing bonsues for early draftees.

I agree. The MLB draft is archaic. It's based off of a system that worked in the 1920's where you would go out and see a guy for some semi-pro team and sign them.

MLB IMO, needs to have a rule where they don't draft kids out of high school or JUCO. They should draft guys after four years of college IMO, and do like the NFL where you can declare after three years with a draft advisory board makes a recommendation.

It would save these scouts a lot of time because then all they would have to do is recruit the colleges instead of the colleges, the high schools, JUCO's, PG showcases, etc.

[messageboardsuperhero]

This is why you take chances on a player like Aiken. You never know what could happen.

If he doesn't like the offer, UCLA could end up with a stud pitcher for the next three years fall into their lap because of some BS "injury."

[Todd4State]

This is why you take chances on a player like Aiken. You never know what could happen.

If he doesn't like the offer, UCLA could end up with a stud pitcher for the next three years fall into their lap because of some BS "injury."

Exactly. It's high risk high reward. And if this falls through, the coach at UCLA should have a party Motley Crue style.

[MetEdDawg]

I agree. The MLB draft is archaic. It's based off of a system that worked in the 1920's where you would go out and see a guy for some semi-pro team and sign them.

MLB IMO, needs to have a rule where they don't draft kids out of high school or JUCO. They should draft guys after four years of college IMO, and do like the NFL where you can declare after three years with a draft advisory board makes a recommendation.

It would save these scouts a lot of time because then all they would have to do is recruit the colleges instead of the colleges, the high schools, JUCO's, PG showcases, etc.

Baseball is so difficult to evaluate because of the number of people out there that play and the recent increase in exposure for these kids all across the country. But the draft and the evaluation of talent really is very old school still and there does need to be some changes because of all of these showcases and all the "extra" stuff that wasn't there even 5-10 years ago.

I like the 3 year rule in college because it's just difficult for me to force a kid to stay 4 years when it's clear they are ready to get into an organization and start making an impact. But I think it would greatly enhance college baseball to have all high schoolers go to college for a minimum of 3 years. I think there are a lot of high school kids that need to go to college because they just don't get the individual attention they need in the minors. It will increase the product going into the majors and minors and it will put college baseball much more squarely on the map, which is should be because of the type of product it puts out every year.

Also, a mandatory college rule helps us because of where we sit in the current college baseball hierarchy. We can recruit big names and would be able to compete at the highest level every year.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Exactly. It's high risk high reward. And if this falls through, the coach at UCLA should have a party Motley Crue style.

I wouldn't even call it a high risk- especially for us, given Cohen's knack for identifying and bringing in really good JUCOs. If one of our prospects gets drafted high, Cohen is very good about having a backup plan ready and in place (see Reynolds after Burdick signed).

I'd call it more of a moderate-to-low risk, high reward. You don't really expect someone like Aiken to show up- but if he does, you've got a steal. Nobody expects all four our biggest guys to show up (Marrero, Riley, Pickett, and Padgett), but it'll be huge if we can get a couple on campus.

[Todd4State]

Baseball is so difficult to evaluate because of the number of people out there that play and the recent increase in exposure for these kids all across the country. But the draft and the evaluation of talent really is very old school still and there does need to be some changes because of all of these showcases and all the "extra" stuff that wasn't there even 5-10 years ago.

I like the 3 year rule in college because it's just difficult for me to force a kid to stay 4 years when it's clear they are ready to get into an organization and start making an impact. But I think it would greatly enhance college baseball to have all high schoolers go to college for a minimum of 3 years. I think there are a lot of high school kids that need to go to college because they just don't get the individual attention they need in the minors. It will increase the product going into the majors and minors and it will put college baseball much more squarely on the map, which is should be because of the type of product it puts out every year.

Also, a mandatory college rule helps us because of where we sit in the current college baseball hierarchy. We can recruit big names and would be able to compete at the highest level every year.

I would compromise with three. My thought on it being four was mainly because most of these guys go to the Cape Cod League or some other summer league and therefore it makes it more difficult for them to get a degree.

It would definitely help us out because our coaches are very good recruiters. But they pick and choose their spots so that we don't have a class that gets absolutely gutted by MLB. If we didn't have MLB to deal with, I wouldn't be shocked at all if we would land guys like Aiken or Tyler Kolek from time to time.

[Todd4State]

I wouldn't even call it a high risk- especially for us, given Cohen's knack for identifying and bringing in really good JUCOs. If one of our prospects gets drafted high, Cohen is very good about having a backup plan ready and in place (see Reynolds after Burdick signed).

I'd call it more of a moderate-to-low risk, high reward. You don't really expect someone like Aiken to show up- but if he does, you've got a steal. Nobody expects all four our biggest guys to show up (Marrero, Riley, Pickett, and Padgett), but it'll be huge if we can get a couple on campus.

I agree that Cohen does a good job with the JUCO guys, but of course I would rather have Aiken!

[dawgs]

I'd love to get a bunch of HS studs in school because they couldn't go to the draft, but of all the major sports, baseball is by far the best equipped to transition young guys from HS into being productive MLBers because of the MiLB system in place. There's no need for college to act as a defacto farm system for MLB. Also, I guarantee you most players receive far more 1-on-1 attention in MiLB than college simply due to the ncaa contact limitations. And if a college players wants extra attention from a specialists, he's paying for it, where that same extra work for a MiLB player is gonna be covered by the team more often than not.

Edit: IMO, if anything, the other major sports should follow the MLB draft rules. Let football and basketball players that get drafted lower than expected or not at all easily go back to school. Let kids have an opportunity to get drafted out of HS, but if they aren't, they are in juco for 2 years or college for 3. Sure, the lebron's of the world would still go pro out of HS, but the Mario Austin's might have had been able to use a senior season to better themselves or at least have 1 last glory run in college if they get drafted lower than they hoped. And it's make MBB so much better by eliminating the 1-and-dones, but still allowing the true elites to go pro.

And you'd rarely, if ever see a football player get taken out of HS because of the nature of the sport and the developmental curve and need for physical maturity to excel. But it'd give the rare exception the chance to skip college, which would temper down the calls to eliminate the 3 year rule for NFL.

[MetEdDawg]

I'd love to get a bunch of HS studs in school because they couldn't go to the draft, but of all the major sports, baseball is by far the best equipped to transition young guys from HS into being productive MLBers because of the MiLB system in place. There's no need for college to act as a defacto farm system for MLB. Also, I guarantee you most players receive far more 1-on-1 attention in MiLB than college simply due to the ncaa contact limitations. And if a college players wants extra attention from a specialists, he's paying for it, where that same extra work for a MiLB player is gonna be covered by the team more often than not.

Edit: IMO, if anything, the other major sports should follow the MLB draft rules. Let football and basketball players that get drafted lower than expected or not at all easily go back to school. Let kids have an opportunity to get drafted out of HS, but if they aren't, they are in juco for 2 years or college for 3. Sure, the lebron's of the world would still go pro out of HS, but the Mario Austin's might have had been able to use a senior season to better themselves or at least have 1 last glory run in college if they get drafted lower than they hoped. And you'd rarely, if ever see a football player get taken out of HS because of the nature of the sport and the developmental curve and need for physical maturity to excel.

It's hard to disagree with the bolded part. The minor leagues is the most well established feeder system to it's professional league in all of sports. But by individual attention I mean that there will always be someone in college to care about whether that kid makes it or not. In the minors if you can't cut it then tough shit. But I think college does a very good job of preparing the majority of kids that come through for the minors. In the end I think for the majority of high school kids that go to the draft, them going to college 3 years gives them a better chance to succeed long term than going straight to the minors.

[dawgs]

It's hard to disagree with the bolded part. The minor leagues is the most well established feeder system to it's professional league in all of sports. But by individual attention I mean that there will always be someone in college to care about whether that kid makes it or not. In the minors if you can't cut it then tough shit. But I think college does a very good job of preparing the majority of kids that come through for the minors. In the end I think for the majority of high school kids that go to the draft, them going to college 3 years gives them a better chance to succeed long term than going straight to the minors.

I promise the MLB teams financially invested in these kids would like to see them make it. And if they don't, the MLB teams cover their college tuition if/when they decide to give up on the dream and go back to school.

As for college v. HS draftees, this is still a small sample, but it's the best I could find in a quick google search. HS prospects had a higher rate of success during the years analyzed.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php

[Todd4State]

I'd love to get a bunch of HS studs in school because they couldn't go to the draft, but of all the major sports, baseball is by far the best equipped to transition young guys from HS into being productive MLBers because of the MiLB system in place. There's no need for college to act as a defacto farm system for MLB. Also, I guarantee you most players receive far more 1-on-1 attention in MiLB than college simply due to the ncaa contact limitations. And if a college players wants extra attention from a specialists, he's paying for it, where that same extra work for a MiLB player is gonna be covered by the team more often than not.

Edit: IMO, if anything, the other major sports should follow the MLB draft rules. Let football and basketball players that get drafted lower than expected or not at all easily go back to school. Let kids have an opportunity to get drafted out of HS, but if they aren't, they are in juco for 2 years or college for 3. Sure, the lebron's of the world would still go pro out of HS, but the Mario Austin's might have had been able to use a senior season to better themselves or at least have 1 last glory run in college if they get drafted lower than they hoped. And it's make MBB so much better by eliminating the 1-and-dones, but still allowing the true elites to go pro.

And you'd rarely, if ever see a football player get taken out of HS because of the nature of the sport and the developmental curve and need for physical maturity to excel. But it'd give the rare exception the chance to skip college, which would temper down the calls to eliminate the 3 year rule for NFL.

The recent trends show that if you are a baseball player and you go to college, you actually increase your chances of making it to MLB. And it actually doubles according to one study- from 5% out of high school to 10% out of college. That's all rounds.

[Todd4State]

I promise the MLB teams financially invested in these kids would like to see them make it. And if they don't, the MLB teams cover their college tuition if/when they decide to give up on the dream and go back to school.

As for college v. HS draftees, this is still a small sample, but it's the best I could find in a quick google search. HS prospects had a higher rate of success during the years analyzed.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php

That was for the first round only for those years. So, most of those high school picks are top end guys and therefore are safer than your typical high school player. Those guys were exceptions rather than the rule.

[dawgs]

The recent trends show that if you are a baseball player and you go to college, you actually increase your chances of making it to MLB. And it actually doubles according to one study- from 5% out of high school to 10% out of college. That's all rounds.

Link?

Also, it's hard to say whether it's because a guy went to college or not that he made it, because each player is different. Maybe 1 HS bust would have made it of he'd gone to college, but maybe a college bust would have made it of he'd gone straight to MiLB. Each player and the circumstances and the teams they end up with are all different. It's impossible to say one way or another unless we tap into a parallel universe where HS draftees go to college and college draftees go straight to MiLB and then we compare the results.

I will say that the HS draftees that don't make it, don't have a lack of attention and "care", it's that they either just had already peaked talent-wise or couldn't handle being 18 living on their own with a lot of money in the bank.

[MetEdDawg]

That was for the first round only for those years. So, most of those high school picks are top end guys and therefore are safer than your typical high school player. Those guys were exceptions rather than the rule.

Beat me to it. This rule of mandatory college would be mostly for all of those kids that get drafted not in the first few rounds that may not have the maturity or talent to go straight to the minors. The majority of high school baseball players need to go to college. They need to grow up and learn how to carry themselves at the professional level while also getting the instruction that will help them succeed at the next level.

[TheRef]

Beat me to it. This rule of mandatory college would be mostly for all of those kids that get drafted not in the first few rounds that may not have the maturity or talent to go straight to the minors. The majority of high school baseball players need to go to college. They need to grow up and learn how to carry themselves at the professional level while also getting the instruction that will help them succeed at the next level.

Just look at Renfroe's quote about how you can tell the difference between High School guys in the minors and College guys in the minors. It's a whole different change in demeanor.

[Todd4State]

Link?

Also, it's hard to say whether it's because a guy went to college or not that he made it, because each player is different. Maybe 1 HS bust would have made it of he'd gone to college, but maybe a college bust would have made it of he'd gone straight to MiLB. Each player and the circumstances and the teams they end up with are all different. It's impossible to say one way or another unless we tap into a parallel universe where HS draftees go to college and college draftees go straight to MiLB and then we compare the results.

I will say that the HS draftees that don't make it, don't have a lack of attention and "care", it's that they either just had already peaked talent-wise or couldn't handle being 18 living on their own with a lot of money in the bank.

And that's why they should have gone to college.

But this is my link. I don't know how old it is, though.

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/probability.htm


The other thing is after 2003, teams started to use Moneyball tactics more with drafting and that meant more college players. So, a lot of things from before then are a little out of date.

[Todd4State]

Beat me to it. This rule of mandatory college would be mostly for all of those kids that get drafted not in the first few rounds that may not have the maturity or talent to go straight to the minors. The majority of high school baseball players need to go to college. They need to grow up and learn how to carry themselves at the professional level while also getting the instruction that will help them succeed at the next level.

I agree. And to me, if you are coming out of high school, you better be Bryce Harper good. And even he went JUCO for one year.

[dawgs]

I agree. And to me, if you are coming out of high school, you better be Bryce Harper good. And even he went JUCO for one year.

But he graduated HS at 16.

No one is saying a lot of guys shouldn't go to college, just that they have the option, even after they are drafted to make that decision. There's not really anything comparable the the nfl or nba. IMO baseball nails the balance of letting some kids go pro out of HS when a team feels like they deserve a draft pick and $$, but without punishing those kids that want to go to college for whatever reason, whether just because they want to or because they feel they got picked too low or whatever. Guys they get drafted low or undrafted in the nfl don't have that option. NBA kinda does but it's not as player friendly, and nfl doesn't really do it at all.

[SDDawg]

My daughter attends Aiken's high school. The kid is not injured and doesn't have a medical problem, not a chance of it. He has been seen by a number of reputable doctors. I hated the Astros already but this is behavior I'd expect from a truly scummy team like the Red Sox. Awful.

[Todd4State]

Transitioning players back into "the real world" has always been an issue for MLB and ex pro baseball players. To me, the best way to do that in todays world is with a college degree. Only 4% of today's current active MLB players have degrees. Which means that almost every one of them has to go back to school if they want to get a job in most cases. This is an article about the transitioning issue.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110620&content_id=20772874&c_id=mlb

If MLB is really serious about this and if they want a better product, they should start supporting college baseball a lot more.

And on top of that, unless you are drafted in the first or second round (and even the second round is stretching it) the money just isn't "life changing" any more where you can get a ton of money, go blow your arm out and then go be a PE teacher like Kenny Powers.

[Todd4State]

My daughter attends Aiken's high school. The kid is not injured and doesn't have a medical problem, not a chance of it. He has been seen by a number of reputable doctors. I hated the Astros already but this is behavior I'd expect from a truly scummy team like the Red Sox. Awful.

From the Astros point of view, he's not "injured" per say. He just has an "abnormality" which means that in the Astros MD opinion is "more likely" to result in an injury at some point in time. That's why they are dropping their price- because of the risk involved.

Actually the scummiest thing I've ever heard a team do was the Phillies turning in that pitcher for Oregon State to the NCAA for having an advisor- who would become the player's agent, which is common place. That pitcher got suspended for some of their season.