Question for Will James

[Bo Darville]

Will, I've got a question. I'm not harassing you because I appreciate your stats you bring to the table and enjoy reading them.

My question concerns the BABIP (batting average on balls in play). If I am understanding this correctly, it assumes that batting average on balls in play (take out strikeouts, walks, hit batters, homeruns, etc.) should be somewhat consistent. Pitchers with a high BABIP are somewhat unlucky, and pitcher with a low BABIP are somewhat lucky, and eventually it will all even out.

Am I correct that it doesn't take into account the quality of the contact made by the hitter? For instance I could groove 70 mph balls down the middle of the plate and guys will be hitting missles all over the field. It will result in a high BABIP, but the stat will simply say I am "unlucky". A good pitcher that changes speeds, locations etc. will have the balls in play be lazy fly balls, weak grounders, etc. That results in easy outs and a low BABIP. The stat will simply say that he is "lucky". However the difference in those two pitchers in not luck at all. One was a bad pitcher and the other was a good pitcher, but both pitchers pitched to contact. Am I correct in this thought? Is there a stat that accounts for this or is somehow already in the BABIP?

[Will James]

Precisely. BABIP does not generally transfer from season to season meaning it is a luck factor. During a season if there is an extreme outlier in BABIP, you can be assured that it will transffer back toward the mean. Henderson had a BABIP of something in the .220's recently when our team BABIP was .320 in SEC play. He was statistically due to get some hits. Ross had a very low outlier BABIP as well which is when I originally posted my "lucky or good" post. He was statistically due to regress.

Porter's SEC BABIP is currently .226. Frost's is .429.

Lindgren and Ross have essentially the same walk rate and hits per inning. Lindgren's BABIP however is .370. He's been really unlucky. Until recently Ross' BABIP was in the lower-mid 250s. Low outlier. That's when I predicted he would start to struggle.

There is technology coming around to accurately measure batted ball speed, angle/trajectory etc to measure that kind of stuff but its not in use in college or anything.

But the thing about BABIP is that it's not really transferable from year to year. Like David Price's is .345 this year so far. Just randomly clicking Cole Hamels name shows his last few years have been .317 .289 .255 .290 .252.

[Bo Darville]

So if one guy has a BABIP of 0.420 and another has a BABIP of 0.220, it could be pure luck. It could also be that one guy constantly makes hard, solid contact with scorching grounders and laser line drives, while the other hits weak grounders off the end of the bat. That would result in balls that are much easier for a defense to transfer into outs.

I like the stat and see it's usefullness, but it does have some flaws, like any stat.

Like I said, I'm not harassing you, just trying to better understand many of the newer stats and how they tell the tale.

[Will James]

Armstrong had a +400 BABIP until recently. Like Goat says you have to incorporate the stats and common sense into everything. Is Trey Porter a weak ball hitter? I don't think so. Like Frazier last night even line drives sometimes go right at people. This helps to even the luck of that kind of thing out.

[RTO Dawg]

My head just exploded...Thanks