ESPN projections pick Bama to win Sec, MSU 7th most likely

[ScoobaDawg]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/85014/espn-projections-favor-alabama-to-win-sec

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are projected to win 8.5 games, with a 0.02 percent chance of winning the conference and 4.7 percent chance of winning the West. Mississippi State is favored in eight games -- all but Ole Miss (47.0), Auburn (40.0), LSU (39.7) and Alabama (25.5).

[DudyDawg]

The biggest surprise to me is that they have A&M with better odds than LSU. Its really hard for me not to think that A&M will be really, really down this year.

[Covercorner2]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/85014/espn-projections-favor-alabama-to-win-sec

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are projected to win 8.5 games, with a 0.02 percent chance of winning the conference and 4.7 percent chance of winning the West. Mississippi State is favored in eight games -- all but Ole Miss (47.0), Auburn (40.0), LSU (39.7) and Alabama (25.5).

The stats in the write-up are incorrect, fwiw. Look at the chart at the bottom. Actually says we have a 4.7 percent chance of winning the conference and a 9.7 percent chance of winning the division.

Good for 3rd in the West. It's amazing what happens when you take bias and perception out of the equation and actually look at things objectively**

[ScoobaDawg]

The stats in the write-up are incorrect, fwiw. Look at the chart at the bottom. Actually says we have a 4.7 percent chance of winning the conference and a 9.7 percent chance of winning the division.

Good for 3rd in the West. It's amazing what happens when you take bias and perception out of the equation and actually look at things objectively**


Good Catch. It was a slap in the face to say .02 chance.

[TheRef]

I do think it's funny that TAMU has better odds of winning the conference but we have better odds of winning the West. Logic please?

[drunkernhelldawg]

These analysts agree that we have a solid chance to win every game: at least 2/5 in every game but bama, and even that's a respectable 1/4

[codeDawg]

These analysts agree that we have a solid chance to win every game: at least 2/5 in every game but bama, and even that's a respectable 1/4

Yeah, I have no problem with those odds.

UM (47) - We'll both have good teams this year. The home team usually has the edge no matter what, so I have no issue with not being favored. We have to be playing offense at a very high level or UM will have to have had some key injuries for us to win. There is a pretty good chance both of those will be true.

UA (40) - This is probably about right. We won't be catching them developing early in the season like we did last year. AU is going to drop a couple just because of the schedule, but we are on the front end of the tough stuff. We have a good chance, but I don't think the odds should be any better.

LSU (39.7) - If we were playing this game at home, I would say we should be favored. We're playing a completely rebuilt young team early in the year with a mature deep roster and a superstar QB. Oh yeah, it's in Death Valley, so 40% is probably about right.

Bama (25.5) - We're just not going to win that one in Tuscaloosa.

They have the projection at 8.5 wins, so to get 9 we need one of the above. I think it's a coin toss and circumstance dependent in Oxford. UA at home is the one that I hope we steal, but how awesome would it be to take one from LSU at their house.

[MzTerry]

Yeah, I have no problem with those odds.

UM (47) - We'll both have good teams this year. The home team usually has the edge no matter what, so I have no issue with not being favored. We have to be playing offense at a very high level or UM will have to have had some key injuries for us to win. There is a pretty good chance both of those will be true.

UA (40) - This is probably about right. We won't be catching them developing early in the season like we did last year. AU is going to drop a couple just because of the schedule, but we are on the front end of the tough stuff. We have a good chance, but I don't think the odds should be any better.

LSU (39.7) - If we were playing this game at home, I would say we should be favored. We're playing a completely rebuilt young team early in the year with a mature deep roster and a superstar QB. Oh yeah, it's in Death Valley, so 40% is probably about right.

Bama (25.5) - We're just not going to win that one in Tuscaloosa.

They have the projection at 8.5 wins, so to get 9 we need one of the above. I think it's a coin toss and circumstance dependent in Oxford. UA at home is the one that I hope we steal, but how awesome would it be to take one from LSU at their house.


you do understand that UA is Univ of Alabama and Auburn is AU? unless this is a feeble attempt to take a shot at a team that, unfortunately, has our number.

[1998Dawg]

The stats in the write-up are incorrect, fwiw. Look at the chart at the bottom. Actually says we have a 4.7 percent chance of winning the conference and a 9.7 percent chance of winning the division.

Good for 3rd in the West. It's amazing what happens when you take bias and perception out of the equation and actually look at things objectively**

What a keen eye, At first glance I was a little disturbed with the 0.02% chance of us winning the sec and immediately wrote this off as another one of those bs preseason media writeups. But at almost 5%, you'd have to consider us a legit SEC title contender. And you're exactly write, when you take the perception and bias out (starz), you see who the real cream of the crop is.

[1998Dawg]

We need to post that link on some of our top croots social media and make sure they see what direction we're going.

[FISHDAWG]

The biggest surprise to me is that they have A&M with better odds than LSU. Its really hard for me not to think that A&M will be really, really down this year.

especially with a Freshman QB ... also have a Sophomore that will compete for that position as well .... the others are listed as walk-ons

[sandwolf]

What a keen eye, At first glance I was a little disturbed with the 0.02% chance of us winning the sec and immediately wrote this off as another one of those bs preseason media writeups. But at almost 5%, you'd have to consider us a legit SEC title contender. And you're exactly write, when you take the perception and bias out (starz), you see who the real cream of the crop is.


We need to post that link on some of our top croots social media and make sure they see what direction we're going.

Am I really the only person who is 100% positive that this guy is a troll?

[Covercorner2]

Am I really the only person who is 100% positive that this guy is a troll?

No.

[1998Dawg]

lol at the troll remark. I've been going to games since Emory Bellard walked the sidelines.


especially with a Freshman QB ... also have a Sophomore that will compete for that position as well .... the others are listed as walk-ons

Agree. A&M won't go bowling this year, imo. Freshmen QB thrown to the wolves quick. In the sec, you need your qb to have confidence and it takes a while and many reps to build that. Just no way to get there other than cut your teeth and earn your stripes the hard way.

[DudyDawg]

especially with a Freshman QB ... also have a Sophomore that will compete for that position as well .... the others are listed as walk-ons

Not just that. The loss of their best lineman, receiver, and two best defenders on an already shaky defense

[PMDawg]

The biggest surprise to me is that they have A&M with better odds than LSU. Its really hard for me not to think that A&M will be really, really down this year.

they won't be that down. 8-4 type team.

[PMDawg]

Am I really the only person who is 100% positive that this guy is a troll?

nope. his ban is long overdue.

[PassInterference]

Zzzzzz

Respect is earned, not given.

[CadaverDawg]

1 strike given, 98.....cut the shit or

http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130919044711/defenderoftexel/images/5/51/Banhammer.gif

[sleepy dawg]

especially with a Freshman QB ... also have a Sophomore that will compete for that position as well .... the others are listed as walk-ons

Yes, because they've never been competitive with a freshman or sophomore QB before....

[TUSK]

TUSK's take:

Alabama: The Crimson Tide is projected to win 9.9 games and has a 4 percent chance of going undefeated. In addition to its 22.6 percent chance of winning the SEC, Alabama has a 38 percent chance of winning the SEC West. Alabama is the favorite in every game and has at least a 64.5 percent chance of winning all but the LSU (57.5) and Auburn (57.8) games.

I'd bet the OVER on 9.9 wins.
I'd take 25:1 going undefeated.
I'd take 5:1 on SECC.
I'd take 3:1 on SECWC.

LSU/AU % look about right as well....

[PMDawg]

TUSK's take:

Alabama: The Crimson Tide is projected to win 9.9 games and has a 4 percent chance of going undefeated. In addition to its 22.6 percent chance of winning the SEC, Alabama has a 38 percent chance of winning the SEC West. Alabama is the favorite in every game and has at least a 64.5 percent chance of winning all but the LSU (57.5) and Auburn (57.8) games.

I'd bet the OVER on 9.9 wins.
I'd take 25:1 going undefeated.
I'd take 5:1 on SECC.
I'd take 3:1 on SECWC.

LSU/AU % look about right as well....

Bama loses 3 this year. 3 out of LSU, auburn, and the two MS teams.

[Reason2succeed]

I'm not buying Bama being that good or TAMU being that bad. Bama is replacing AJ McCarron who never really got the respect he was due. Yes, he was a game manager but he was a really good game manager.

On the other hand everyone swoons over Johnny Football but check the record this wasn't the first time that Sumlin coached a great QB. Yes, he no longer has Kliff Kingsbury but Sumlin is regarded as an offensive genius in his own right which is the reason why Kingsbury coached under him at Houston and TAMU in the first place.

In conclusion, I reject the idea that TAMU is a guaranteed win and that Bama is a guaranteed loss.

[PMDawg]

I'm not buying Bama being that good or TAMU being that bad. Bama is replacing AJ McCarron who never really got the respect he was due. Yes, he was a game manager but he was a really good game manager.

On the other hand everyone swoons over Johnny Football but check the record this wasn't the first time that Sumlin coached a great QB. Yes, he no longer has Kliff Kingsbury but Sumlin is regarded as an offensive genius in his own right which is the reason why Kingsbury coached under him at Houston and TAMU in the first place.

In conclusion, I reject the idea that TAMU is a guaranteed win and that Bama is a guaranteed loss.

+1

[codeDawg]

Bama loses 3 this year. 3 out of LSU, auburn, and the two MS teams.

I can't look at the past 6 years of results and recruiting rankings and think that's a real possibility. They are stacked deep at every position, including QB. LSU is down. UM isn't deep enough even if they do run an up-tempo offense. We might have a prayer because of our depth and defense, especially up front, but being it Tuscaloosa makes that tough. Auburn did it last year and could do it again this year. I still think they are 11-1, with a loss to Auburn.

[FISHDAWG]

Yes, because they've never been competitive with a freshman or sophomore QB before....

so you think they have another Johnnie Football ? .... man what a pipeline**

[Reason2succeed]

so you think they have another Johnnie Football ? .... man what a pipeline**

Sumlin found and designed his offense for Johnny Manziel. A lot of coaches would have missed on him or messed it up offensively but Sumlin didn't. No, TAMU might not be Johnny but I doubt they will be trash either.

[codeDawg]

Sumlin found and designed his offense for Johnny Manziel. A lot of coaches would have missed on him or messed it up offensively but Sumlin didn't. No, TAMU might not be Johnny but I doubt they will be trash either.

They are going to be fine. They have fast and tall wide-outs, good running backs, a great OL, and plenty of talent at QB that just needs time to develop. Sumlin is a smart coach who knows how to get the most out of his offense.

The defense was decimated by injuries and youth last year. They will be improved on that side of the ball as they get guys back and the young ones have a year under their belt.

They are not going to be world beaters this year, but they aren't going to be pushovers either. I think our defense will match up well with what they are going to want to do on the ground, and I expect great things from our offense this year. It will be an exciting game in Starkville.

[PMDawg]

I can't look at the past 6 years of results and recruiting rankings and think that's a real possibility. They are stacked deep at every position, including QB. LSU is down. UM isn't deep enough even if they do run an up-tempo offense. We might have a prayer because of our depth and defense, especially up front, but being it Tuscaloosa makes that tough. Auburn did it last year and could do it again this year. I still think they are 11-1, with a loss to Auburn.

All good and fair points. Just looking at the way they finished last year, how their QB situation is shaping up, and the quality of some of their losses, I think it catches up with them. Also, Saban is struggling vs. spread offenses and the SEC has a lot of them now. Add in Lane Kiffin, and I just think it's a good possibility.

[DudyDawg]

They are going to be fine. They have fast and tall wide-outs, good running backs, a great OL, and plenty of talent at QB that just needs time to develop. Sumlin is a smart coach who knows how to get the most out of his offense.

The defense was decimated by injuries and youth last year. They will be improved on that side of the ball as they get guys back and the young ones have a year under their belt.

They are not going to be world beaters this year, but they aren't going to be pushovers either. I think our defense will match up well with what they are going to want to do on the ground, and I expect great things from our offense this year. It will be an exciting game in Starkville.

I believe they lost their best OL men, lost their star QB, and the fast and tall wideout is gone (Seals-Jones is good, but he aint Mike Evans good), And that defense lost their two best players who were dismissed this offseason if I remember correctly.

Not saying that we will murder them, but they did lose a lot, and will be relying A TON on freshman

[codeDawg]

I believe they lost their best OL men, lost their star QB, and the fast and tall wideout is gone (Seals-Jones is good, but he aint Mike Evans good), And that defense lost their two best players who were dismissed this offseason if I remember correctly.

Not saying that we will murder them, but they did lose a lot, and will be relying A TON on freshman

I think that is what everyone is thinking, but I think most are overlooking the guys behind those guys. ESPN has A&M's offensive line (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEkQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fespn.go.com%2Fblog%2Fsec%2Fpost%2 F_%2Fid%2F84151%2Fsec-position-rankings-offensive-line-5&ei=i9G-U4CDC8WjyASVxYGwBA&usg=AFQjCNECL0ndeaAEee6lBzVvV_ztq8poiw&sig2=n75Rs0xd_RNEdKlnZUlx2g) and WR (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDgQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fespn.go.com%2Fblog%2Fsec%2Fpost%2 F_%2Fid%2F84077%2Fsec-position-rankings-wide-receivers&ei=i9G-U4CDC8WjyASVxYGwBA&usg=AFQjCNF8mhmI35urQ1PfyBMVmTqRMJNEfA&sig2=VxxLg7t5paTK6Cy09F5C_g) positions both ranked #2 in the SEC and RB (http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/84047/sec-position-rankings-running-backs-6) at #5. That's pretty good, even if you are refreshing the QB position with a true freshman.

Hard to argue about defense. They had injuries last year, but have some young talent. Who knows if they can get it together, but I would expect a team that started 10 true freshmen on defense and special teams to improve incrementally year over year. We'll have to exploit that

[hacker]

Am I really the only person who is 100% positive that this guy is a troll?

I'm on the fence. I kinda just think he's new to internet/message boards. I want to believe.