Degenerates Unite

[TheRef]

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/bovada-releases-national-championship-odds-for-2014/

Bovada has released their National Championship odds.

Notables:

BAMA 6:1
Auburn 9:1
LSU 18:1
USCe 25:1
UF and TSUN 40:1
Mizzou and TAMU 66:1
Miami 75:1
Tennessee, UNC, TTU, Washington 100:1
MSU, BYU, and VT 150:1

[FISHDAWG]

still can't understand the love for Auburn ... I fully expect to win that game this year

[sleepy dawg]

still can't understand the love for Auburn ... I fully expect to win that game this year

You should buy into it, if Bovada is making the pick... Year in year out, no predictions can compare to that of vegas opening lines. They outpick every machine and every person. Of course, they make adjustments to teams they know people are going to bet on, but in general, you can probably expect these to be more accurate than any person's predictions.

Note: These are not to be read as Bovada picked Auburn to finish second in the West. They're just saying they have a 9/1 chance to win the National Championship.

I think being in the West automatically gives you an automatic bump... If you win the West, you have a great shot at a National Championship. Consider me concerned that Bovada isn't buying into us at all.

[Covercorner2]

You should buy into it, if Bovada is making the pick... Year in year out, no predictions can compare to that of vegas opening lines. They outpick every machine and every person. Of course, they make adjustments to teams they know people are going to bet on, but in general, you can probably expect these to be more accurate than any person's predictions.

Note: These are not to be read as Bovada picked Auburn to finish second in the West. They're just saying they have a 9/1 chance to win the National Championship.


I think being in the West automatically gives you an automatic bump... If you win the West, you have a great shot at a National Championship. Consider me concerned that Bovada isn't buying into us at all.

Bovada had Auburn 200/1 last year. I still don't understand why people don't realize that Vegas isn't PREDICTING anything about how these teams will finish. They are predicting how people will bet on teams. It's all about perception, not prediction....

[PMDawg]

Bovada had Auburn 200/1 last year. I still don't understand why people don't realize that Vegas isn't PREDICTING anything about how these teams will finish. They are predicting how people will bet on teams. It's all about perception, not prediction....

Ok, well either on prediction or perception, I don't understand how teams like Tennessee, A&M, Missouri, UNC, etc. are SO MUCH higher than us.

[CadaverDawg]

Ok, well either on prediction or perception, I don't understand how teams like Tennessee, A&M, Missouri, UNC, etc. are SO MUCH higher than us.

Because those teams don't have to play Bama, Auburn, LSU, and a bunch of other 9:1 type teams this season. Their road is easier, and ours has the Great Wall of China blocking it. That's the only thing I can think of.

[Dawg61]

Ok, well either on prediction or perception, I don't understand how teams like Tennessee, A&M, Missouri, UNC, etc. are SO MUCH higher than us.

Has to do with people's betting history I'm guessing. They are trying to maximize bets here.

[Covercorner2]

Ok, well either on prediction or perception, I don't understand how teams like Tennessee, A&M, Missouri, UNC, etc. are SO MUCH higher than us.

It's a combination of a lot of things, but the main thing, like I said earlier, is public perception. We are Mississippi State, we don't carry a big name nationally, especially compared to a lot of those teams you mentioned. Another thing is history, especially recent history. While we we improved as the year went on last year, the general public still sees us as a 7-6 team with arugably our biggest wins being against Ole Miss and Rice. Also, as has been said in numerous other threads until we beat an LSU, Bama, etc. we still won't get the necessary respect we deserve, whether justified or not. Basically, unless you are very familiar with Mississippi State, you see a perennial 6-6 type team playing in the SEC West.....

[b.mcadams]

It's a combination of a lot of things, but the main thing, like I said earlier, is public perception. We are Mississippi State, we don't carry a big name nationally, especially compared to a lot of those teams you mentioned. Another thing is history, especially recent history. While we we improved as the year went on last year, the general public still sees us as a 7-6 team with arugably our biggest wins being against Ole Miss and Rice. Also, as has been said in numerous other threads until we beat an LSU, Bama, etc. we still won't get the necessary respect we deserve, whether justified or not. Basically, unless you are very familiar with Mississippi State, you see a perennial 6-6 type team playing in the SEC West.....

Exactly. This all day.

If you break down teams strengths/weaknesses and take out public perception, we are probably closer to 40/1.

[PMDawg]

It's a combination of a lot of things, but the main thing, like I said earlier, is public perception. We are Mississippi State, we don't carry a big name nationally, especially compared to a lot of those teams you mentioned. Another thing is history, especially recent history. While we we improved as the year went on last year, the general public still sees us as a 7-6 team with arugably our biggest wins being against Ole Miss and Rice. Also, as has been said in numerous other threads until we beat an LSU, Bama, etc. we still won't get the necessary respect we deserve, whether justified or not. Basically, unless you are very familiar with Mississippi State, you see a perennial 6-6 type team playing in the SEC West.....

UM has all of the same hurdles as us when it comes to perception and schedule. Yet they are listed as 40/1.

I get what you're saying, but I find it ridiculous to call us 150/1 when a team like TN (who will be lucky to make a bowl) is listed ahead of us. And UM that high is a joke.

I just can't see how anyone with a brain would take UM, TN, A&M, or UNC at these numbers. 40 to 1 is a legit number. Florida, Mizzou, Miami? Please. Just light your money on fire.

[Covercorner2]

UM has all of the same hurdles as us when it comes to perception and schedule. Yet they are listed as 40/1.

I get what you're saying, but I find it ridiculous to call us 150/1 when a team like TN (who will be lucky to make a bowl) is listed ahead of us. And UM that high is a joke.

I just can't see how anyone with a brain would take UM, TN, A&M, or UNC at these numbers. 40 to 1 is a legit number. Florida, Mizzou, Miami? Please. Just light your money on fire.

It's because of recrootapalooza 2013. Everyone knows UM has Nkemdiche, Treadwell, Tunsil, etc. Not a lot of fans outside of close proximity to MS probably know any of our players, including our QB....

People are influenced by the media and those people bet on football

That and UM beat LSU and Texas last year on national TV and finished 8-5.

[PendingTransaction]

Some look at how close we were to being a 4-8 team last year.

[codeDawg]

UM has all of the same hurdles as us when it comes to perception and schedule. Yet they are listed as 40/1.

I get what you're saying, but I find it ridiculous to call us 150/1 when a team like TN (who will be lucky to make a bowl) is listed ahead of us. And UM that high is a joke.

I just can't see how anyone with a brain would take UM, TN, A&M, or UNC at these numbers. 40 to 1 is a legit number. Florida, Mizzou, Miami? Please. Just light your money on fire.

UM has the schedule this year. They get a walk on OOC and cross-conference (Vandy & UT), and they get Bama, Auburn, and MSU at home. LSU on the road is tough, but they beat them last year. There is risk in their lack of depth, but they have some starting talent that has been recognized in recruiting rankings.

We have to play LSU, Bama, and UM on the road. We don't have a history of winning at LSU or Bama and the Egg Bowl is a heavy favorite for the home team. We have depth, but fewer of the perceived superstars until they make names for themselves this year.

We will both have good teams this year, but UM has the easier path.

[dogshiek]

610

[blacklistedbully]

UM has all of the same hurdles as us when it comes to perception and schedule. Yet they are listed as 40/1.

I get what you're saying, but I find it ridiculous to call us 150/1 when a team like TN (who will be lucky to make a bowl) is listed ahead of us. And UM that high is a joke.

I just can't see how anyone with a brain would take UM, TN, A&M, or UNC at these numbers. 40 to 1 is a legit number. Florida, Mizzou, Miami? Please. Just light your money on fire.

UM fans are also so delusional that it doesn't take long odds to get a large number of them to bet. Why offer longer odds when you can get those deluded morons to take your action at the lower payout number?

[sleepy dawg]

It's a combination of a lot of things, but the main thing, like I said earlier, is public perception. We are Mississippi State, we don't carry a big name nationally, especially compared to a lot of those teams you mentioned. Another thing is history, especially recent history. While we we improved as the year went on last year, the general public still sees us as a 7-6 team with arugably our biggest wins being against Ole Miss and Rice. Also, as has been said in numerous other threads until we beat an LSU, Bama, etc. we still won't get the necessary respect we deserve, whether justified or not. Basically, unless you are very familiar with Mississippi State, you see a perennial 6-6 type team playing in the SEC West.....

Perception certainly affects it, but it is still the most accurate predictor when compared against other ways to predict futures. The vegas line, over the long run, consistently out performs all other models, including Sagarin, Accuscore, etc.

[1998Dawg]

UM fans are also so delusional that it doesn't take long odds to get a large number of them to bet. Why offer longer odds when you can get those deluded morons to take your action at the lower payout number?

Yea I guess that makes sense, just crazy to think that tsun fans have that much power to control the vegas lines and bookmakers. But thats what you get when you talking about such a desperate group.

[blacklistedbully]

Yea I guess that makes sense, just crazy to think that tsun fans have that much power to control the vegas lines and bookmakers. But thats what you get when you talking about such a desperate group.

Well, I'm guessing there is an impact, though not necessarily a huge one. But I also imagine the expected betting on any Mississippi teams is a very regional, not national thing. I'm thinking the odds are possibly more weighted to prospective "in state" voters than the "national interest" teams. I would also not be surprised to find the odds-makers researching enough to recognize how often OM is over-estimated by those outside our state.