Don't look now Braves fans

[Pioneer Dawg]

And how do you know LaStella isn't about to go cold?

Again, you are arguing that a manager is an idiot because he made a move that defies convention of the stat sheet and WON NINE GAMES IN A ROW. THAT in a nutshell is everything that is wrong with sabermetrics.

You don't….. thats the point. Holy Shit. MOST LIKELY is both will be their normal selves. Knowing this you put the better one at leadoff to MAXIMIZE YOUR ODDS.


Again with the correlation here. What is the r-squared here? BJ leading off single handily produced the win streak? Even with his SUB LEAGUE AVERAGE offensive output… he still CAUSED the streak?…... They won despite him leading off.. Same thing with bunting and Cohen. "Oh golly we won so ITS WORKING" is retarded.

Last 12 games WAR
Santana - 0.8
Teheran - 0.6
Freeman - 0.6
J Upton - 0.4
La Stella - 0.4
A. Simmons - 0.3
Kimbrel - 0.3
Walden - 0.3
BJ UPTON - 0.2

But by God its that BJ Upton thats causing these wins

[Todd4State]

You don't….. thats the point. Holy Shit. MOST LIKELY is both will be their normal selves. Knowing this you put the better one at leadoff to MAXIMIZE YOUR ODDS.


Again with the correlation here. What is the r-squared here? BJ leading off single handily produced the win streak? Even with his SUB LEAGUE AVERAGE offensive output… he still CAUSED the streak?…... They won despite him leading off.. Same thing with bunting and Cohen. "Oh golly we won so ITS WORKING" is retarded.

Last 12 games WAR
Santana - 0.8
Teheran - 0.6
Freeman - 0.6
J Upton - 0.4
La Stella - 0.4
A. Simmons - 0.3
Kimbrel - 0.3
Walden - 0.3
BJ UPTON - 0.2

But by God its that BJ Upton thats causing these wins

So, winning is retarded? "Hey, we lost but we put the best "maximized" lineup out there!" "We won, bunt Cohen bunted." No- THAT'S retarded. And you go full retard constantly.

No one here is saying that Upton is THE reason that they won, but I bet Freeman's WAR isn't 0.6 if he doesn't have Upton to drive in. But hey, it only took until page 12 for you to put words into my mouth.

Again- you only have your data and not what Gonzalez knows about his team, something you and your stats still have no answer for which would totally change from day to day and series to series. All you have is long range projections. I know this will blow your feeble little mind, but sometimes all the data and all the information ISN'T out there and isn't in black and white. You don't know what's going on with Upton, LaStella, Simmons, Freeman, etc. Gonzalez does. And that's going to carry more weight than what your spreadsheet says.

So, go ahead- keep calling a guy that has more information than you and is winning 9 games with the same lineup an idiot. Awesome.

[Pioneer Dawg]

but I bet Freeman's WAR isn't 0.6 if he doesn't have Upton to drive in.

Uh RBI's don't factor into WAR

[Dawg61]

Dee Gordon is an All-Star this year. He is hitting .301, has a .356 OBP, 49 R, 42 SB, and a .416 SLG% which is higher than Evan Longoria, Matt Carpenter, Dustin Pedroia, Shin-Shoo Choo, Matt Holliday, Jay Bruce, Jason Heyward, Jacoby Ellsbury and oh yea Chris Davis too and on and on of franchise household name players. Skinny little Billy Hamilton has a higher slugging % than all those names too. You just have a problem with speed at the top of the lineup.

[Dawg61]

No, I'm not basing my opinion of MLB managers on a movie that was made to glorify Billy Beane, who I do feel is the best GM in baseball.

Brian Sabean has two World Series rings. How many does Billy Beane have?

[Dawg61]

Has it ever occurred to you that BJ Upton might just be looked up to on that team by the other players? That he might be viewed as a veteran player that has a powerful voice in that dugout? He has a younger brother that could probably beat the shit out of anyone on that damn team besides maybe Gattis and BJ is the louder tougher older brother. I have a feeling that he is looked up to by everyone on that team just about as a guy that will lead us to victory and Gonzalez uses this by putting him at the front of the line to get their offense started. It is also a motivational tactic by Gonzalez to show BJ that he trusts him to lead his team. Gonzalez is leaning on BJ to be a leader and he's telling him that by placing him atop the order. This is stuff that sabermetrics doesn't account for. You have to be a part of that team to understand it and motivation and team chemistry most certainly have a MAJOR influence on day to day results.

[Todd4State]

Uh RBI's don't factor into WAR

I didn't say that they did.

What I was saying is that Freeman is a better hitter with runners on base than he is without them. His average goes up from .284 without men on to .309 and his OBP goes up from .379 without men on to .395. His OBS goes up from .885 to .899 with runners on base.

And since you want to split hairs, I'm assuming you are using fangraphs definition of WAR which factors in defense fairly heavily in a discussion about offensive value. I love WAR, but since this is an offensive only discussion, let's keep the stats offense only based.

[Pioneer Dawg]

I didn't say that they did.

What I was saying is that Freeman is a better hitter with runners on base than he is without them. His average goes up from .284 without men on to .309 and his OBP goes up from .379 without men on to .395. His OBS goes up from .885 to .899 with runners on base.

And since you want to split hairs, I'm assuming you are using fangraphs definition of WAR which factors in defense fairly heavily in a discussion about offensive value. I love WAR, but since this is an offensive only discussion, let's keep the stats offense only based.

There are two discussions going on here. Can you walk and chew gum? One discussion is based only on offensive production. The other is the sacred win streak. Now in win streak discussion SURELY you can't attribute a win only to offense. So you have to look at who is actually providing for the wins during the win streak in that topic.

[Pioneer Dawg]

1. BJ and Simmons still 1-2

2. Jay Bruce is playing 1B for the first time in his career for the injured Votto. Jay Bruce is a power guy. Cincinnati could have gone with a better defensive option in Bryan Pena but he only gets on base at a .292 clip for his career. This allows for Skip Schumaker (.341 career OBP) to take RF. Sounds familiar to a recent discussion around here. Such a tough defensive position that 1B** I of course am talking about the "need" for Rea's glove at 1B even if he can't hit and how Garner couldn't possibly do it.

[TheRef]

1. BJ and Simmons still 1-2

2. Jay Bruce is playing 1B for the first time in his career for the injured Votto. Jay Bruce is a power guy. Cincinnati could have gone with a better defensive option in Bryan Pena but he only gets on base at a .292 clip for his career. This allows for Skip Schumaker (.341 career OBP) to take RF. Sounds familiar to a recent discussion around here. Such a tough defensive position that 1B** I of course am talking about the "need" for Rea's glove at 1B even if he can't hit and how Garner couldn't possibly do it.

The Garner argument is null and void since he's gone...so can we drop that subject? Please?

[Pioneer Dawg]

The Garner argument is null and void since he's gone...so can we drop that subject? Please?

Its relevant to going forward with Rea/Ingram the option at 1B.

Its nice that you play ref in the game threads but if you dont want to see something move along. Its not your job to decide what is discussed.

[TheRef]

Its relevant to going forward with Rea/Ingram the option at 1B.

Its nice that you play ref in the game threads but if you dont want to see something move along. Its not your job to decide what is discussed.

I'm not trying to decide what's being discussed. I'm just trying to keep a dead horse from being beaten to a slimy pulp. But hey...to each their own.

[Dawg61]

http://youtu.be/DQDAjyehMhc

[Pioneer Dawg]

Todd Frazier is 133rd out of 163 qualified hitters in FB%

82% of MLB hitters see more fastballs than Frazier.

[Dawg61]

Todd Frazier is 133rd out of 163 qualified hitters in FB%

82% of MLB hitters see more fastballs than Frazier.

Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

[Pioneer Dawg]

Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

Makes sense seeing as how his FB% is so low!

BOOM

Set em up and I'll knock em down

http://a.fod4.com/misc/Bowling%20So%20Many%20Pins.gif

[Dawg61]

Makes sense seeing as how his FB% is so low!

Actually it does if you think about it. Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in the league. If the other team has any chance to get him out on a steal attempt they must throw a fastball so if Todd Frazier sees a fastball it must be when Billy Hamilton is on base since Todd Frazier sees less fastballs than 82% of the league.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Actually it does if you think about it. Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in the league. If the other team has any chance to get him out on a steal attempt they must throw a fastball so if Todd Frazier sees a fastball it must be when Billy Hamilton is on base since Todd Frazier sees less fastballs than 82% of the league.

Yeah I wasn't knocking you or anything it was just naturally perfect that the circle came back around to BH's lack of OBP.

Frazier is a better hitter on balls away so actually there is a good chance of merit to what you are saying. IF Frazier is getting fastballs away WHEN BH is on 1st AND thats where he is excelling (which it looks like he is) then all is well in the universe. That would be maximizing Frazier. Now is a slight bump in Frazier worth BH low OBP at leadoff? Id say probably not.


ETA to note that I never dismissed the argument. Research showed that he still doesn't get many fastballs overall which I think is about all I've said on the BH-Reds topic. After doing more research there is nowhere I can find Fraziers #'s with BH on 1st but it would not be a bad hypothesis to assume that what Dawg61 is saying has merit.


"The ELITE base stealers that can get on ARE a weapon. That's the point. You have to use the numbers to determine which one is the most beneficial. USE THE NUMBERS. OBP, MATCHUPS, SB% all factor into a formula"

Is BH-Frazier the maximum that the Reds can come up with? Maybe. I'd go with Votto when healthy probably. But again its about MAXIMIZING all offensive output. That formula may very well be that BH leading off Frazier 2nd is most efficient right now especially with Votto out. That would be VERY sabermetric.

BH SB% is still just 74%.. Leads MLB with 12 CS

[Dawg61]

Now is a slight bump in Frazier worth BH low OBP at leadoff? Id say probably not.

Slight bump is the understatement of the year. Frazier is a totally different player this year and so is Devin Mesoraco. Billy Hamilton has the same slugging % as Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton has 35 steals. Give Hamilton two years and he'll be a top 5 leadoff hitter.

[KB21]

I think baseball is starting to transition a little bit because of the lack of offense. And because of guys like Beane speed has gotten undervalued for years- and even going back to the steroid era. A couple of those guys are really young players like Hamilton, who are going to get better as time goes on. When offense goes down, teams start to look for ways to try to create it. We've seen that in college. I think some teams are willing to take some lumps now in hopes that those players are better down the road. We'll see if it works or not.

At any rate, MLB has got to start getting hitters back to using the whole field, they need to stop trying to pull everything, and they need to stop trying to work the count every single time up and they need to start being aggressive.

Honestly, I don't see the transition. It's always been a traditional baseball strategy to put a speed guy at the lead off spot, and I don't think the majority of baseball has bought into putting the high on base guy at the lead off spot.

I think the problem with offense is just the opposite. Players do not know how to work the count, they are too aggressive and over swing, and there is too much reliance upon power to score.

[KB21]

Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

Then his fastball percentage is so low because Hamilton is rarely on base.

[Dawg61]

Then his fastball percentage is so low because Hamilton is rarely on base.

Billy Hamilton's better slugging and gigantic speed advantage over a player like La'Stella more than makes up the lower OBP and then you have to realize his threat on the steal makes the 2nd hole hitter a more dangerous hitter. Speed makes the 2 hole hitter better. It's common sense that it does. The pitcher isn't going to throw balls and risk 2 guys on base for the more powerful 3,4,5 hitters and the pitcher isn't going to throw a bunch of off-speed pitches because that makes it almost impossible to throw out the base stealer. Fastballs pumped in the strike zone for the 2hole hitter. Braves should try BJ leadoff and Heyward in the 2 hole imo. Heyward has only grounded into 2 double plays all year long. Of course if I was the Braves GM i'd give up a stud pitcher for a Brian Dozier type to leadoff.

[KB21]

Billy Hamilton's better slugging and gigantic speed advantage over a player like La'Stella more than makes up the lower OBP and then you have to realize his threat on the steal makes the 2nd hole hitter a more dangerous hitter. Speed makes the 2 hole hitter better. It's common sense that it does. The pitcher isn't going to throw balls and risk 2 guys on base for the more powerful 3,4,5 hitters and the pitcher isn't going to throw a bunch of off-speed pitches because that makes it almost impossible to throw out the base stealer. Fastballs pumped in the strike zone for the 2hole hitter. Braves should try BJ leadoff and Heyward in the 2 hole imo. Heyward has only grounded into 2 double plays all year long. Of course if I was the Braves GM i'd give up a stud pitcher for a Brian Dozier type to leadoff.

Billy Hamilton 698 OPS, 306 wOBA
Tommy La Stella 744 OPS, 335 wOBA

[Pioneer Dawg]

You can look at the value of that speed with the wRC stat. wOBA combines the aspects of OBP and SLG into one nice category. Dawg61 you greatly devalue getting on-base and are overstating Hamilton's speed aspect given his 12 caught stealings.

Hamilton has a wRC+ of 92 and wOBA of .306
La Stella has a wRC+ of 114 and wOBA of .335
BJ Upton has a wRC+ of 73 and wOBA of .275

[KB21]

Carlos Tosca already making better managerial decisions than Fredi. Fredi's idea of a defensive replacement late in the game is to pull Tommy La Stella out of the game when he is not a defensive liability. In the process, he leaves the guy who is a defensive liability in the game in Chris Johnson. Tonight, when Carlos subbed Pena in for defensive purposes, he pulled Johnson, not La Stella.

Carlos Tosca for manager!!

He also correctly identified when Shae Simmons's command was waning, even though Shae struck out the batter. Bethancourt had just set up on the outside part of the plate to a left handed hitter, and Shae's slider bit hard to the inside corner of the plate.

[Dawg61]

Billy Hamilton 698 OPS, 306 wOBA
Tommy La Stella 744 OPS, 335 wOBA

Billy Hamilton 42 Runs 35 stolen bases, tonight went 2-4 with a triple 1 run 1 walk 4 rbi
Tommy La Stella 11 Runs 2 stolen bases, tonight went 1-4 with a walk

[Dawg61]

Dawg61 you greatly devalue getting on-base and are overstating Hamilton's speed aspect given his 12 caught stealings.


Are pickoffs included in "caught stealings"? I watched Bumgarner and Lincecum pick off Hamilton 3 times a few weeks ago. He's a rookie and the veteran pitchers are owning him a little with their pickoff moves right now. He will learn every one of their moves going forward.

[KB21]

Billy Hamilton 42 Runs 35 stolen bases, tonight went 2-4 with a triple 1 run 1 walk 4 rbi
Tommy La Stella 11 Runs 2 stolen bases, tonight went 1-4 with a walk

I could care less about the stolen bases, and his 42 runs scored are because he has Todd Frazier and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him. Tommy La Stella has had either Andrelton Simmons or Gerald Laird batting behind him along with the pitcher.

[KB21]

Kyle Wren stole home tonight for Mississippi. Now this is a player whose speed is actually a weapon because of his on base ability. Kyle has a career .381 OBP in the minors to this point. He's at about 81% on his stolen base percentage. He doesn't strike out a lot and walks at a solid rate.

[msstate7]

Carlos Tosca already making better managerial decisions than Fredi. Fredi's idea of a defensive replacement late in the game is to pull Tommy La Stella out of the game when he is not a defensive liability. In the process, he leaves the guy who is a defensive liability in the game in Chris Johnson. Tonight, when Carlos subbed Pena in for defensive purposes, he pulled Johnson, not La Stella.

Carlos Tosca for manager!!

He also correctly identified when Shae Simmons's command was waning, even though Shae struck out the batter. Bethancourt had just set up on the outside part of the plate to a left handed hitter, and Shae's slider bit hard to the inside corner of the plate.

Too bad fredi got ejected after the 8th. We have a 1-run lead in the 8th and go to maybe our worst rp (avilan). The 8th inning with a lead should be Simmons or walden only!

[Dawg61]

I could care less about the stolen bases, and his 42 runs scored are because he has Todd Frazier and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him.

I've noticed. Not comparing about how many stolen bases he has is the same thing as saying I don't care how many times he leads of an inning with a double or triple because every time he steals second and/or third he got exactly the same thing as a double or triple. Your hatred towards speed is strange. Do you also hate basketball players that are tall and can jump out the gym or quarterbacks that can throw the ball 80 yards and hit a dime?

[Dawg61]

Kyle Wren stole home tonight for Mississippi. Now this is a player whose speed is actually a weapon because of his on base ability. Kyle has a career .381 OBP in the minors to this point. He's at about 81% on his stolen base percentage. He doesn't strike out a lot and walks at a solid rate.

Comparing minor league stats? Really? Billy Hamilton had 155 SB in one year the same year he had a .410 OBP. But yea Kyle Wren is better than him. Haha

[smootness]

Carlos Tosca already making better managerial decisions than Fredi. Fredi's idea of a defensive replacement late in the game is to pull Tommy La Stella out of the game when he is not a defensive liability. In the process, he leaves the guy who is a defensive liability in the game in Chris Johnson. Tonight, when Carlos subbed Pena in for defensive purposes, he pulled Johnson, not La Stella.

Carlos Tosca for manager!!

He also correctly identified when Shae Simmons's command was waning, even though Shae struck out the batter. Bethancourt had just set up on the outside part of the plate to a left handed hitter, and Shae's slider bit hard to the inside corner of the plate.

I'm cool with that.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Are pickoffs included in "caught stealings"? I watched Bumgarner and Lincecum pick off Hamilton 3 times a few weeks ago. He's a rookie and the veteran pitchers are owning him a little with their pickoff moves right now. He will learn every one of their moves going forward.

If he is picked off going back to the bag then its not a CS. If he's picked off and takes off to 2nd where he gets out it IS a CS.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Hamilton should spend any extra time picking Votto's brain. His 4% BB rate just ain't cutting it. He has shown the ability in 2012 but fell off last year and even worse now.

He is a good baserunner and not just because of his steals

[Dawg61]

If he is picked off going back to the bag then its not a CS. If he's picked off and takes off to 2nd where he gets out it IS a CS.

Ok almost all of those are going to be CS then because on first movement he is gone. Not going back to the bag. So those 12 CS are probably more like 5-6 catcher throwing out and 5-6 picked off.

[Todd4State]

Honestly, I don't see the transition. It's always been a traditional baseball strategy to put a speed guy at the lead off spot, and I don't think the majority of baseball has bought into putting the high on base guy at the lead off spot.

I think the problem with offense is just the opposite. Players do not know how to work the count, they are too aggressive and over swing, and there is too much reliance upon power to score.

Until recently there have been fewer Vince Coleman types than ever. Managers almost have had no choice but to put a non-traditional lead off hitter at the top. I'm starting to see more Billy Hamilton types in the minors. There aren't a lot out there yet, but I think it's starting. I think there is a fallacy about trying to tie speed and OBP together for whatever reason, and they're totally separate things. You can have a guy that has a high OPB and steals a lot of bases. I think that's what MLB managers really want. Think Ichiro in his prime. Matt Carpenter's OBP is really good- and that's great- but if he could steal 50 bases along with that high OBP, you're talking about a guy going from maybe good All-Star type of player to maybe a guy that could be considered one of the best second basemen ever if the Cardinals made a trade and moved him back there.

On the hitting round table thing I watched on MLB Network, they talked about how hitters are taking more pitches than ever, and they had a graphic that backed it up. That said, I do think that you are correct in that hitters don't know how to work the count and overswing- or take the wrong approach. You see guys with a 1-2 count swing as hard as they can. I very rarely see anyone in MLB shorten their swing and try to go opposite field with two strikes. These pitchers know what these hitters are being told to do, and if they know that a guy is going to take pitches, they're just going to go ahead and throw two strikes to get ahead and then make you hit whatever their out pitch is.