What MSU Must do to win the West

[BeastMan]

This isn't a prediction. What will need to happen for MSU to have a "best case scenario" season. What do you guys think needs to happen?

http://3rdand57.com/for-msu-to-win-the-west/

Those are my thoughts. It's a combination of a lot of things that include personnel, schedule, and luck.

[starkvegasdawg]

I think everybody agrees that the West, as a division, is not nearly as strong as in past years.

Alabama - Weaker than past teams but still very formidible with their stable of 10 star RB's. (6-2)
Arkansas - Horrible (1-7 at best)
Auburn - Won't come close to last season's luck and success (4-4)
LSU - Down, but like Alabama, that is not saying much. (6-2)
TSUN - Good defense but OL issues good derail a decent season (3-5)
A&M - Will be a shell of the last two years (3-5)

That leaves MSU. This could be a team that finally breaks through and gets those signature wins we have all been clamoring for. It could also be a team that gets soem key injuries or just does not play to potential and we are all pissed at the end of the season. To win the west it all comes down to the games against LSU and Alabama. If we can finally fend off the LSU jinx and breakthrough in Death Valley and go 7-1 in the SEC then LSU beat Alabama and then the Tide lose one more SEC game somewhere we have a shot. I don't think any team not named LSU or Alabama wins the west with two SEC losses. I think they are the only teams that can conceivably do that due to one of them having the right tie breakers on head to head matchups.

ETA: Our two east opponents are extrememly winnable games. I think A&M, Arkansas, and TSUN are also very winnable with TSUN being the toughest of that group unless they are riddled with injuries by Thanksgiving weekend. If my thoughts on Auburn are correct that should be a win. That is 6 SEC wins. Then it all comes down to can we get it done in Red Stick and get a little help from the Tide. Possible, absolutely. Likely...time will tell.

[Johnson85]

I don't think your first scenario is realistic. For us to lose to Bama and LSU and win the west, I think that means both Bama and LSU will have to go 5-3 as we are going to lose any of the tie breakers. I guess you could end up with a scenario where Auburn and Bama or Auburn and LSU are the top two teams, in which case we could potentiall advance going 0-2 against Bama and LSU. But I think the point is we are going to have to go 1-1 against the two best teams in the west to have a chance.

Also worth noting that most likely, if we are good enough to go 6-2, we are probably not going to lose to UK or Vandy. So our two losses will probably be in the West, which means in a three way tie we will lose unless we win both head to heads or unless the other two teams also picked up both losses against the west.

[hailmari]

I'd be lying if I said I'm not a little worried about that UK game.

[CadaverDawg]

I'd be lying if I said I'm not a little worried about that UK game.

If we have to worry about Kentucky, our season will be very VERY disappointing. We can forget "winning the West" talk if we have to worry about UK

[BeastMan]

Just realized my part about the kicking game didn't copy over. Gotta get better kicking field goals

[Goat Holder]

Realistically, if we have a shot, it'll be at 10-2 (6-2) with luck. Let's face it, we ain't going undefeated or 11-1. That being said, we'll need to either beat LSU or Bama on the road and hope the other doesn't hold the tie-breaker against us. We'll likely drop another game here or there, but we'll need to beat Auburn. I see us losing maybe at Kentucky if they are improved or at Ole Miss in a down game.

[Goat Holder]

If we have to worry about Kentucky, our season will be very VERY disappointing. We can forget "winning the West" talk if we have to worry about UK

Typical media/sheep-think.

Late October is notorious for upsets. Not to mention that EVERY team has 'down' games where they don't show up. And if Kentucky is improved (teams do tend to do this in 2nd years under good coaches), then they could definitely clip us. Let's face it, we don't have the talent to be able to knock off other teams' A games if we are playing our C game. See Ole Miss over LSU last year. It happens, all over the country.

We won the West in '98 after getting beat by 3-8 LSU in Baton Rouge. Like I said earlier, if we win the West, it'll be with a couple of losses and some luck. We're going to need to save our A games for Bama/LSU/Auburn and have our down games against teams like UK/Vandy/Arkansas. Again, Kentucky is the most concerning because it's on the road in October. NOT BECAUSE I THINK WE WILL SUCK. I want to be clear, so you cannot turn this into a whine-fest.

[tcdog70]

for us to even have a chance to beat he Big Boys our special teams will have to be SPECIAL

[preachermatt83]

we are going 11-1 and still may not win the west... I think our one loss is to bama and if that's the case then bama will have to lose two games and I don't see it happening. Its gonna really suck to finish 11-1 and not be the champions of the west. But it is very likely that we end up in the 4 game playoff at 11-1. Alabama, US, Florida State, and Ohio State

[CadaverDawg]

we are going 11-1 and still may not win the west... I think our one loss is to bama and if that's the case then bama will have to lose two games and I don't see it happening. Its gonna really suck to finish 11-1 and not be the champions of the west. But it is very likely that we end up in the 4 game playoff at 11-1. Alabama, US, Florida State, and Ohio State

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqhrt8sLls1qcj771.gif

[DudyDawg]

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqhrt8sLls1qcj771.gif


HIGH ON KNOWLEDGE, SON! We gon do it big den!!!!

[preachermatt83]

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqhrt8sLls1qcj771.gif

im high on mullen cool aid brotha! #inmullenwetrust

[preachermatt83]

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqhrt8sLls1qcj771.gif

ole cadaver is a skitzo! haha! who was it that said this just a few short mins ago on another thread...

"Grow a pair and develop some confidence in the Dawgs, mane"

[BeastMan]

I don't think your first scenario is realistic. For us to lose to Bama and LSU and win the west, I think that means both Bama and LSU will have to go 5-3 as we are going to lose any of the tie breakers. I guess you could end up with a scenario where Auburn and Bama or Auburn and LSU are the top two teams, in which case we could potentiall advance going 0-2 against Bama and LSU. But I think the point is we are going to have to go 1-1 against the two best teams in the west to have a chance.


What I'm basing that on is this: I think MSU's chance to win the west would have to include a 10-2 record and win via tie breaker. I don't think we beat Bama or LSU on the road. The way that would work would be Ole Miss beating Bama and LSU and then have some other SEC West cannibalization. A&M would have to beat somebody. Also, SEC East teams would need to ding some of the West squads to help State at 6-2 in the SEC. Specifically you would need to root for USC & UGA vs Auburn, Fla vs LSU, Fla & UT vs Bama,and USC & Mizzou vs Texas A&M. My best case scenario for MSU basically has Bama, Auburn, and LSU all log jamming at 9-3 (5-3). A&M won't be a factor besides lucking up and beating one of those 3 to get them to 5-3. Then it would come down to the Egg Bowl where both teams enter Oxford at 6-1 in the SEC and the winner takes all

[CadaverDawg]

ole cadaver is a skitzo! haha! who was it that said this just a few short mins ago on another thread...

"Grow a pair and develop some confidence in the Dawgs, mane"

Ha, confidence is one thing....losing your mind is another. You said your scenario was "likely"!

[Covercorner2]

State 10-2- losses to Bama and TSUN

Auburn 10-2- losses to UGA and State

Bama 10-2- losses to LSU and Auburn

State wins the West

[scottycameron]

I guess all this means I should pull for the bears against Bama. Newsflash.... (I don't need to say it do I?)

[Johnson85]

State 10-2- losses to Bama and TSUN

Auburn 10-2- losses to UGA and State

Bama 10-2- losses to LSU and Auburn

State wins the West

Why would Auburn not win the West in that scenario? Wouldn't it go SEC Record (tie), head to head (tie), and then western division record, in which case auburn wins? Am I missing a tie-breaker that would favor MSU?

[breazy]

State 10-2- losses to Bama and TSUN

Auburn 10-2- losses to UGA and State

Bama 10-2- losses to LSU and Auburn

State wins the West


unless im crazy UGA is still in the east so Auburn would only have one West loss and would therefor win the west

[Joe Schmedlap]

To win the west, State would have to bring back Coach JWS and give him total control of the special teams. Oh, and State would have to go 6-2 in the conference.

[PendingTransaction]

State will need luck that makes Auburn's breaks last year look like buzzard-luck.

[Covercorner2]

[QUOTE=breazy;205216]unless im crazy UGA is still in the east so Auburn would only have one West loss and would therefor win the west[/

You're right. My b