OT: East Coast Dogs

[TheRef]

You might want to pay attention to Invest 91L. GFS and ECMWF have it developing around VA and riding all the way up the East Coast. HWRF, however, have it making landfall in NC. Now the intensity of it is still unknown. Preliminary thought from me? I would say probably either a TS or Cat. 1 near NC but like I said, it's WAY to early to start making that sort of determination. I'll try to keep y'all updated as much as possible with what the NHC is saying along with the rest of NWS. For your information, I'm including a few NHC links for graphics and such.

Hurricane Hunters Briefings: Here's your first line of what the NHC is thinking. I also know the two interns that are writing the briefings for the HH. They're good at what they're doing. One is an undergrad and the other is a Ph.D. student. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

National Hurricane Center Main Page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Invest 91L latest graphic/visible satellite image: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif

[BrunswickDawg]

Thanks Ref. These are the type systems that drive me crazy. When they form close to the coast like this they tend to sit and spin, then dump a bunch of rain for 3 days. Hopefully, that is all we get.

[TheRef]

Ladies and Gentlemen, Atlantic Hurricane Season officially has it's first Tropical Depression. TD One is officially now a thing. Now I'm doing this disclaimer, I'm about to go super weather nerd on you. So if you would like to just look at the graphics and nothing more, I won't be offended. Now to the nitty gritty. Models started off placing this storm near the Outer Banks of NC for July 4th. ECMWF is still trending that way. NAM takes it right along the coast. GFS takes it further inland. Almost too far. Still too far out to make any determination.

Here is NHC's latest "Cone of Probability"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0114W5+gif/025820W_sm.gif

Now this is showing actually no landfall if the storm tracks directly down that dashed black line. Honestly, I don't see it going down that black line but that's what the cone is for. I think it takes more of a Westerly track like the ECMWF is suggesting. This is something we need to watch and keep an eye on. I think it will be a borderline Cat 1 at landfall if it follows the ECMWF track.

ETA: This image will update automatically.

[BrunswickDawg]

Looks like the "Georgia Bight" and the Gulf Stream are going to keep my pork dry when I light the smoker pre-dawn on Friday. While they are greatly appreciated, I hope I do not have to spend my summer glued to your forecasts Ref. But, that is the curse of living in paradise....

What model do you generally follow? I've always felt NAM was less reliable for what I have seen come through here over the past 15 years.

[TheRef]

In Tropical system forecasting, the ECMWF is the standard in tropical models. Then the GFS, then the HWRF. But truly, you have to look at each ensemble member and make a determination off of that.

[shrimp]

Brunswick, I'm right up the road from you in Savannah (Wilmington Island). This system looks like it might hinder the Tybee Island fireworks on Thursday night. I hope not, because I plan on heading down there straight from work.

[TheRef]

We officially have Tropical Storm Arthur!

[BrunswickDawg]

We officially have Tropical Storm Arthur!

http://www.entertainmentfuse.com/images/arthur-movie-dudley-moore.jpg

[bgdog]

So if I'm in DC until the 3rd and then in NYC until the 6th before returning to DC I should be cool?

[TheRef]

So if I'm in DC until the 3rd and then in NYC until the 6th before returning to DC I should be cool?

Depends on the speed of it, but from what it's looking like now, yes.

[TheRef]

Arthur is edging closer and closer to Hurricane strength. I say he gets to Hurricane strength in 24 hours.